Are We Entering a New Period of Rapid Global Warming?

By: Bob Henson , 5:04 PM GMT on February 24, 2015

Residents of New England may understandably look back at 2015 as the year of their never-ending winter. For the planet as a whole, though, this year could stand out most for putting to rest the “hiatus”— the 15-year slowdown in atmospheric warming that gained intense scrutiny by pundits, scientists, and the public. While interesting in its own right, the hiatus garnered far more attention than it deserved as a purported sign that future global warming would be much less than expected. The slowdown was preceded by almost 20 years of dramatic global temperature rise, and with 2014 having set a new global record high, there are signs that another decade-plus period of intensified atmospheric warming may be at our doorstep.

The most compelling argument for a renewed surge in global air temperature is rooted in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This index tracks the fingerprint of sea surface temperature (SST) across the Pacific north of 20°N. A closely related index, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), covers a larger swath of the entire Pacific. Both the PDO and IPO capture back-and-forth swings in the geography of Pacific SSTs that affect the exchange of heat between ocean and atmosphere (see Figure 1). We’ll use PDO as shorthand for both indexes in the following discussion.

The PDO typically leans toward a positive or negative state for more than a decade at a time. The positive phase, which features warmer-than-average SSTs along the U.S. West Coast, was dominant from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. The PDO then flipped to a negative phase between about 1999 and 2013, with cooler-than-average SSTs along the West Coast. Figure 2 shows that even when a particular mode is favored, the PDO can still flip back to its opposite mode for periods of a few months or so.


Figure 1. Departures from average sea-surface temperature (degrees C) and wind (arrows) that typically prevail when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its positive mode (left) and negative mode (right). Image credit: University of Washington.


It’s not clear exactly what drives the PDO, but in some ways it can be viewed as a geographically expanded version of the SST patterns created by El Niño and La Niña, averaged over a longer time period. (See Figure 2.) It’s well-established that El Niño can raise global temperature for a few months by several tenths of a degree Celsius, as warm water spreads over the eastern tropical Pacific and mixes with the overlying atmosphere. Likewise, La Niña can act to pull down global average temperature, as cooler-than-average water extends further west than usual across the tropical Pacific. The PDO mirrors these trends, but over longer periods. When the PDO is positive, there are more El Niño and fewer La Niña events, and heat stored in the ocean tends to be spread across a larger surface area, allowing it to enter the atmosphere more easily. When the PDO is negative, SSTs are below average across a larger area, and global air temperatures tend to be lower.


Figure 2. Typical warm and cool anomalies in sea-surface temperature during positive PDO years (left) and El Niño years (right). The patterns are similar, though with differences in intensity over some regions. The anomalies are reversed for negative PDO and La Niña years. Image credit: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.


Figure 3 shows a striking connection between favored PDO modes (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). The vast majority of atmospheric warming over the last century occurred during positive PDO phases, with negative PDOs tending to result in flat temperature trends. It’s easy to see how an atmospheric warming “hiatus” could occur during a negative PDO phase.


Figure 3. PDO values (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). Gray shading indicates positive PDO periods, when atmospheric warming was most evident. The NOAA PDO values shown here vary slightly from those discussed in the article, which are calculated by the University of Washington. Image credit: Jerimiah Brown, Weather Underground. Data sources:NOAA (top) and NOAA/NCDC (bottom).


From the AMS meeting
The hiatus was discussed at length in a series of talks during the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society last month in Phoenix. Jerry Meehl, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (my former employer), gave a whirlwind 15-minute overview of hiatus-oriented research conducted over the last six years. Meehl’s talk can be viewed online. More than 20 papers have studied the hiatus and its links to the PDO/IPO, according to Matthew England (University of New South Wales). Most of the flattening of global temperature during the hiatus can be traced to cooler-than-average conditions over the eastern tropical Pacific, which pulled down global averages. An emerging theme is that natural, or internal, variability in the tropical Pacific can explain at least half of the hiatus. NCAR’s Clara Deser presented new modeling evidence along these lines (see video online). Other factors may be involved as well, including a series of weak volcanic eruptions that could explain a small part of the hiatus, according to a recent analysis by Ben Santer (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).

One crucial point is that global warming didn’t “stop” during the hiatus: the world’s oceans actually gained heat at an accelerated pace. Trade winds blew more strongly from east to west across the Pacific, consistent with the tendency toward La Niña conditions, as described in this open-access article by NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo. Over parts of the central tropical Pacific, trade winds averaged about 3 mph stronger during 1999-2012 compared to 1976-1988. These speeds are higher than for any previous hiatus on record, bolstering the idea that other factors may have joined this negative PDO/IPO phase. The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches. Other parts of the deep ocean warmed as well. A new study led by Dean Roemmich (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) maps the areas of greatest ocean heating from 2006 to 2013 and finds that significant warming extended to depths of greater than 6600 feet.

What next for the PDO?
The PDO index, as calculated at the University of Washington, scored positive values during every month in 2014, the first such streak since 2003. By December it reached +2.51, the largest positive value for any December in records that go back to 1900. The January value from UW was 2.45, again a monthly record. (NOAA calculates its own PDO values through a closely related methodology.)

Because the PDO can flip modes for a year or more within its longer-term cycle, we don’t yet know whether a significant shift to a positive PDO phase has begun. If trade winds weaken throughout this year, and positive PDO values persist, that’ll be strong evidence that a new cycle is indeed under way. The last time we saw a two-year streak of positive values was in 1992-93. If this occurs, and assuming no spikes in major volcanic activity, we could expect greater rises in global temperature over the next 10 to 15 years than we’ve seen during the hiatus. In addition, we should watch for El Niño to make its presence known more often.

“I am inclined to think the hiatus is over, mainly based on the PDO index change,” NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth told me. While Matthew England isn’t ready to offer such a prediction, he emphasized that any post-hiatus global temperature rise is likely to be fairly rapid. Trenberth also commented on an interesting NOAA analysis (see Figure 4): “If one takes the global mean temperature from 1970 on, everything fits a linear trend quite well except 1998.”


Figure 4. When looking at global temperature over a full PDO cycle (1970s to 2010s), the overall rise becomes evident, despite the flattening observed in the last 15 years. Image credit: NOAA.


A record-strong El Niño occurred in 1998, providing an unusually powerful boost to global temperature and fueling years of subsequent declarations that “global warming stopped in 1998.” The record warmth of 2014 made it clear that global warming has no intention of stopping, and the next few years are likely to reinforce that point. Nevertheless, snowbound New Englanders, and millions of other easterners now dealing with record cold for so late in the year, may be wondering why eastern North America has seen so much cold and snow in the past few winters--especially this one--and how long that climatic quirk might continue. Stay tuned for a separate post on that topic.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 524. barbamz:


Hey, ranting Sar, better take your complains to the editorial staff of "Spiegel" ;-) And I really hope capitalism will be able to prove Naomi Klein wrong and safe us from AGW and its destructive results ...


Capitalism can't save anyone from AGW, it's only as good as the people who run it, but it's better than the other forms of government, despite it's many flaws and weaknesses. If we want to ruin the world faster than AGW, letting fear grip us such that we change government and economics too quickly in response to it will ruin the world a lot faster than AGW.

The problem is, large CO2 burning is heavily integrated into the economy of most nations, and it can't just be quickly and easily removed. It's going to take a lot of cooperation and people working together to make smart and wise decisions and solutions for making cleaner energy more desirable and a larger part of the industry.

The U.S. is almost violently divisive on the issue which makes progress on clean energy and solutions particularly difficult here it seems.
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Wow. Thursday rain chances for Tampa Bay were as high as 70% earlier today. I guess they have a better idea on the path of the low now.
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
239 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-262345-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH -CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILT ON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MO NTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
239 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY TONIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE COUNTIES NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN ACCUMULATING
WINTER PRECIPITATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 528. washingtonian115:

I don't think this is happening



Good lord, Richmond and Hampton Roads would be crushed.
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Quoting 467. wilsongti45:

First direct observation of carbon dioxide's increasing greenhouse effect Link

This study is the smoking gun. The first direct confirmation that CO2 tips the radiation balance in earth's atmosphere. Very important study here.
Lets see what the next few observations have to show before we come to any conclusions, after all how long has it been since we really understood the basics of the weather. let alone climate science. We are so young as a species, and have so much to learn, I just hope capitalism doesn't get in the way and cause a warmer world which we can know longer live in.
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Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


And if the winning number was chosen by someone who accounts for the total?
Oh, that was so cruel. :-) No, we younger men decided that 70 would be the official age for street geezers that would be part of the lottery, knowingly or otherwise. There are 14 of them. Knowing the way models work, I immediately went for the consensus version, being the one in the middle is best. Given my performance picking hurricane numbers, I don't expect this to be any better. It's kind of macabre, but it's better than beating up someone City Hall.
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Good night folks with another daily-life-story from drought-stricken Sao Paulo. Better some feet of snow than this:

São Paulo – anatomy of a failing megacity: residents struggle as water taps run dry
The Guardian, Claire Rigby in São Paulo, Wednesday 25 February 2015 11.45 GMT
In the first in a series looking at Brazil’s largest city, Claire Rigby reports that many paulistanos are hoarding water in their apartments – and some are even drilling homemade wells – as they prepare for possible rationing ...
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Science still stands while the Marlboro man died of Lung Cancer,

Karma is like dat.

With smokin, cigs are the gun, but time is the trigga'

AGW is not unlike that easily.

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533. bwi
Quoting 528. washingtonian115:

I don't think this is happening



Yikes! Haven't been following this latest system -- those sorts of possibilities, even if just one off-base model -- are a bit of a surprise.
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Quoting 513. sar2401:

Oh, no Barb, not Naomi Klein. This is a woman with zero education in anything having to do with climate. She never even made it out of college. She hates capitalism. Every ill of the world is caused by capitalism. She wants to dismantle capitalism immediately but she has no coherent plan about what would replace it. It would be some from of vague, Utopian socialism, something envisioned by the Occupy movement, if that gives you an idea of how realistically she thinks. she is a self-hating Jew that has spent most of her life pandering to every Arab movement that would destroy Israel, something she also favors. She's a self-hating Canadian who believes her country is major contributor to every world ill. She obviously hates the United States, the cockpit of every ill the world has ever known. Cuba's OK though, and North Korea is just "misunderstood. Her affection for totalitarian solist countryies like Cuba and NOrth Korea should give one an a=idea of what kind of replacement


And this one of the reasons Global Warming is so divisive, there is foolishness on both sides of the political spectrum in response to Global Warming, and sadly, that's the first impression left in people's minds is political extremism much of the time, so many people either become extreme in their response to Global Warming, or would rather not discuss it due to the mess associated with discussing it.

It's too bad we couldn't get people to just come together on the issue, and sadly people often either reject that global warming exists due to being conservative or assume it exists because they are liberal, rather than actually learning about the topic and thinking of ways to deal with the issue reasonably and wisely.
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I need a little global warming here in Indiana, it's been below normal temperatures going on 19 months in a row, last summer it only reached 90 degrees F two times.
It's been 20 to 30 degrees colder then it suppose to be for this time of year.
The increased carbon is making those in the midwest colder!
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Oh, the irony...


The Marlbaro man vs. science. That battle lasted for decades.
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Quoting 523. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Via mail please


Have to run. End of my day and a cold one is calling. Will drop you a line soon!

*waves bye to everyone*
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I don't think this is happening
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Quoting 229. Xandra:

From Phys.org:

First direct observation of carbon dioxide's increasing greenhouse effect


The scientists used incredibly precise spectroscopic instruments at two sites operated by the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility. This research site is on the North Slope of Alaska near the town of Barrow. They also collected data from a site in Oklahoma. Credit: Jonathan Gero

Scientists have observed an increase in carbon dioxide's greenhouse effect at the Earth's surface for the first time. The researchers, led by scientists from the US Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), measured atmospheric carbon dioxide's increasing capacity to absorb thermal radiation emitted from the Earth's surface over an eleven-year period at two locations in North America. They attributed this upward trend to rising CO2 levels from fossil fuel emissions.

The influence of atmospheric CO2 on the balance between incoming energy from the Sun and outgoing heat from the Earth (also called the planet's energy balance) is well established. But this effect has not been experimentally confirmed outside the laboratory until now. The research is reported Wednesday, Feb. 25, in the advance online publication of the journal Nature.

The results agree with theoretical predictions of the greenhouse effect due to human activity. The research also provides further confirmation that the calculations used in today's climate models are on track when it comes to representing the impact of CO2.

Read more >>


More information: Nature DOI: 10.1038/nature14240
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Quoting 478. NativeSun:

I don't think people think climate change is a conspiracy, it's just there is so much we don't know about what causes our climate to heat up or cool down. CO2 is a trace gas, yes it is a green house gas, but still a minor gas, and maybe the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is causing some of the warming, but I doubt it is the sole contributor. Methane is another green house gas and this is the one I would be worried about, and their is not a lot we can do about it as humans are not contributing a whole lot to the atmosphere, and there is a lot stored underground and under the oceans. I like it warmer than colder, so I hope for a little climate change on the warm side as the alterative is a whole lot worse for human kind. If we do get another ice age in the near future, we won't have to worry about man made CO2 causing a warming climate as there will probably be a lot less humans on the planet.


Appeal to ignorance is a logical fallacy; and it's not wise to rely on it when the problem is personal ignorance, rather than talking about what is not-yet-known via scientific investigation.

"there is so much we don't know about what causes our climate to heat up or cool down."

If you can balance a checkbook, you can balance Earth's energy budget. The amount of energy arriving vs. the amount of energy leaving the system. Perhaps some of Earth's energy "funds" are getting moved between accounts, but it's not like we can't track those transfers.

"CO2 is a trace gas, yes it is a greenhouse gas, but it is still a minor gas..."

Abundance doesn't necessarily correlate to impact; you're arguing against well-established thermodynamic principles here. Go pick a fight with two centuries of science that have supported physics and chemistry and other natural sciences just fine until now if you like.
Besides, if you're claiming trace constituents can't cause damage, then you won't mind drinking a glass of water with a few ppm arsenic, will you? Or sitting in a room containing 500 ppm of hydrogen sulfide gas?
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Quoting 519. washingtonian115:



Such a tease.
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Quoting 513. sar2401:

Oh, no Barb, not Naomi Klein. This is a woman with zero education in anything having to do with climate. She never even made it out of college. She hates capitalism. Every ill of the world is caused by capitalism. She wants to dismantle capitalism immediately but she has no coherent plan about what would replace it. [snip]

Hey, ranting Sar, better take your complains to the editorial staff of "Spiegel" ;-) And I really hope capitalism will be able to prove Naomi Klein wrong and safe us from AGW and its destructive results ...
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Quoting 508. VirginIslandsVisitor:



I've got a great bumper sticker for you if you want, Joe....*lol* (I don't dare say what it says on the blog, but suffice it to say that it's good island humour!)

Lindy


Via mail please
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It shouldn't be about money. It's absurd. Climate change poses an urgent and very legitimate threat to the functionality of human society, if not all of mankind. Something like that should automatically supersede the petty issues that man drums up. The days of denialism are numbered anyway. Only a matter of time.
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Little weather report from Europe: This morning it was interesting to watch the visible trace which the jetstream was creating over Eastern Spain when once again digging deep to the South towards Northern Africa. You can see the strip of bright and high clouds develop in the 24h loop below. Before that it pushed a lot of fresh snow onto the Pyrenees (southern France and northern Spain) once again. And of course the coastlines experienced very high waves. Besides that a cut-off low is whirling in the Central Mediterranean, donating thunderstorms and flooding for the *grateful* Italians.







Heavy Snow all Over the World
News, 25 February 2015
Well, not quite, but most of the world’s (or at least the northern hemisphere’s) leading ski regions have been reporting heavy snowfall in recent days.
Ski areas in the Alps, the Rockies and even Scotland have all reported up to three feet/90cm of fresh snow so far this week – and in most places it’s still falling. In the French Pyrenees the resort of Cauterets – pictured above – says it has received 1.2m (four feet) of fresh snow. ...
After the slow start to winter 2015 in some areas, particularly the Alps, it currently looks like the accumulated snow base – which is nearing 5m at some resorts (4.8m at Andermatt in Switzerland and Madesimo in Italy) could allow the season to last longer in to spring – if there’s not a sudden thaw and if resorts feel that business levels warrant running the lifts for longer.
Besides Cauterets, the biggest snowfalls reported include an estimated 1 metre at Glencoe in Scotland, 98cm at Cervinia, 81cm at Avoriaz in the French Alps, 80cm at Telluride in the Colorado Rockies, Gstaad in the Swiss Alps and at Grandvalira in Andorra (Pyrenees). ...


Wintry weather affects most of Spain
Spanish News Today-vor 8 Stunden


Spanish radar showing snow fall in the region of the Pyrenees all day.


(Northern Spain): 25.02.2015: Strong waves produced in Donostia-San Sebastian in the Basque Country where a wave reaches several people including a television camera.

Weather in my place in Germany has been calm and partly sunny today.
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I see lemming's en masse over a cliff.
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517. bwi
Quoting 507. LAbonbon:


I think this may actually be the crux of a large part of this issue. Somehow/some way, this became political. Conservative leaders didn't all used to posture on the side of 'I don't believe it'. Some who currently state they don't believe it have flip-flopped. I don't doubt that if it becomes politically expedient to flip to the 'of course it's AGW' side, they will do so. Thing is, they are dragging so many people with them, and muddying the waters for everyone else.

And I don't believe for a second that they all believe what they're saying.

Thing is, AGW will happen whether people believe it's happening or not. Best any of us can do is to try and educate ourselves the best we can.


Follow the money. One fossil fuel interest group alone has pledged to spend $890 million on behalf on conservative politicians in the 2016 election.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/27/us/politics/koc hs-plan-to-spend-900-million-on-2016-campaign.html ?_r=0

Lots of politicians will dance to that much tune, regardless of what they know about science. Also note that some media outlets (especially TV) won't report much on stuff like this, because they want a cut of that money for political ads, an increasingly large share of their ad revenues. When you can throw around nearly a billion dollars per election cycle for political ads, people will bend their values to accommodate the money!

Note, I'm not saying liberal politicians wouldn't bend to money to get elected too, if offered the choice. It's not about morals. But we've got just one party (Koch Industries) that's willing to spend about the same amount as Republicans and Democrats usually raise as a whole for elections -- that leaves a mark. Conservative leaders aren't going to speak out on the dangers of global warming with a billion dollars at stake, so people in conservative areas with conservative media outlets aren't going to hear much about this.
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How do we know more CO2 is causing warming?


An enhanced greenhouse effect from CO2 has been confirmed by multiple lines of empirical evidence.

Climate Myth...

Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

"While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth, minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect.... The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature ... " (Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide)

Predicting the Future

Good scientific theories are said to have ‘predictive power’. In other words, armed only with a theory, we should be able to make predictions about a subject. If the theory’s any good, the predictions will come true.

Here’s an example: when the Table of Elements was proposed, many elements were yet to be discovered. Using the theory behind the Periodic Table, the Russian chemist Dmitri Mendeleev was able to predict the properties of germanium, gallium and scandium, despite the fact they hadn’t been discovered.

The effect of adding man-made CO2 is predicted in the theory of greenhouse gases. This theory was first proposed by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius in 1896, based on earlier work by Fourier and Tyndall. Many scientist have refined the theory in the last century. Nearly all have reached the same conclusion: if we increase the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the Earth will warm up.

What they don’t agree on is by how much. This issue is called ‘climate sensitivity’, the amount the temperatures will increase if CO2 is doubled from pre-industrial levels. Climate models have predicted the least temperature rise would be on average 1.65°C (2.97°F) , but upper estimates vary a lot, averaging 5.2°C (9.36°F). Current best estimates are for a rise of around 3°C (5.4°F), with a likely maximum of 4.5°C (8.1°F).

What Goes Down…

The greenhouse effect works like this: Energy arrives from the sun in the form of visible light and ultraviolet radiation. The Earth then emits some of this energy as infrared radiation. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere 'capture' some of this heat, then re-emit it in all directions - including back to the Earth's surface.

Through this process, CO2 and other greenhouse gases keep the Earth’s surface 33°Celsius (59.4°F) warmer than it would be without them. We have added 42% more CO2, and temperatures have gone up. There should be some evidence that links CO2 to the temperature rise.

So far, the average global temperature has gone up by about 0.8 degrees C (1.4°F):

"According to an ongoing temperature analysis conducted by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)…the average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.8°Celsius (1.4°Fahrenheit) since 1880. Two-thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15-0.20°C per decade."

The temperatures are going up, just like the theory predicted. But where’s the connection with CO2, or other greenhouse gases like methane, ozone or nitrous oxide?

The connection can be found in the spectrum of greenhouse radiation. Using high-resolution FTIR spectroscopy, we can measure the exact wavelengths of long-wave (infrared) radiation reaching the ground.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 502. HurricaneHunterJoe:



They may be needed! My reputation precedes me! How are things Lindy?


Things are good, Joe. Had a rough couple of months with the Chikungunya and an accident, but they are all behind me now! Life is great on the island.
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Quoting 504. pegleg666:

You must be...on drugs. Warming? You're nuts. Drop the politics and stick to science. Please.


See comment # 265.
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Quoting barbamz:
Long new article in the English edition of "Spiegel" (*starts to read it*):



The Warming World: Is Capitalism Destroying Our Planet?
Spiegel English, February 25, 2015 - 06:05 PM, by Alexander Jung, Horand Knaup, Samiha Shafy and Bernhard Zand
World leaders decided in Copenhagen that global warming should be limited to 2 degrees Celsius. Achieving that target, though, would take nothing less than a miracle. With another round of climate negotiations approaching, it is becoming increasingly clear that mankind has failed to address its most daunting problem ...

SPIEGEL Interview with Naomi Klein: 'The Economic System We Have Created Global Warming'
Spiegel English, February 25, 2015 - 06:05 PM. Interview Conducted by Klaus Brinkbaeumer
Can we still stop global warming? Only if we radically change our capitalist system, argues author Naomi Klein. In an interview with SPIEGEL, she explains why the time has come to abandon small steps for a radical new approach. ...


I see: those articles are translations from the current German edition, dealing with GW.
Oh, no Barb, not Naomi Klein. This is a woman with zero education in anything having to do with climate. She never even made it out of college. She hates capitalism. Every ill of the world is caused by capitalism. She wants to dismantle capitalism immediately but she has no coherent plan about what would replace it. It would be some from of vague, Utopian socialism, something envisioned by the Occupy movement, if that gives you an idea of how realistically she thinks. she is a self-hating Jew that has spent most of her life pandering to every Arab movement that would destroy Israel, something she also favors. She's a self-hating Canadian who believes her country is major contributor to every world ill. She obviously hates the United States, the cockpit of every ill the world has ever known. Cuba's OK though, and North Korea is just "misunderstood. Her affection for totalitarian solist countryies like Cuba and NOrth Korea should give one an a=idea of what kind of replacement
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Quoting 504. pegleg666:

You must be...on drugs. Warming? You're nuts. Drop the politics and stick to science. Please.


Oh, the irony...
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Quoting 499. yonzabam:

Sorry for being a mile off topic. This isn't weather related, or climate change related, or even science related.

But, I just watched it for the first time 10 minutes ago, and I was almost moved to tears. Just felt I had to share it. It's the most moving video I've ever seen on the Internet. The guy who caught it deserves a medal.

Link

Who started cutting onions?
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#504 - pegleg666

Mr. Henson's blog post is loaded with science. It also has many links so the reader can delve further. There was a brief mention of pundits and politicians, but the entire blog is pure science.
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Just in from my wu-mail


A single Humans beliefs in faith or millions for that matter, has no affect on CO2's ability to absorb and retain Longwave Solar Radiation.

Stop trashing my Creation is a better meme.

"God"
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Quoting 505. HurricaneHunterJoe:



The sweetest dog ever! 6 years old........my wife named her Josie! The new wheels will come in handy!


I've got a great bumper sticker for you if you want, Joe....*lol* (I don't dare say what it says on the blog, but suffice it to say that it's good island humour!)

Lindy
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Quoting 492. opal92nwf:

It's also hard to believe all this stuff when the mature adults I'm around in my family and community all dismiss GW as I live in one of or the most conservative counties in FL.

I think this may actually be the crux of a large part of this issue. Somehow/some way, this became political. Conservative leaders didn't all used to posture on the side of 'I don't believe it'. Some who currently state they don't believe it have flip-flopped. I don't doubt that if it becomes politically expedient to flip to the 'of course it's AGW' side, they will do so. Thing is, they are dragging so many people with them, and muddying the waters for everyone else.

And I don't believe for a second that they all believe what they're saying.

Thing is, AGW will happen whether people believe it's happening or not. Best any of us can do is to try and educate ourselves the best we can.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting opal92nwf:
It's also hard to believe all this stuff when the mature adults I'm around in my family and community all dismiss GW as I live in one of or the most conservative counties in FL.


Most the people I know (professionally and personally) also dismiss GW or have no interest in discussing the topic. Many of these people hold high degrees (Masters or Ph.D.).

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Quoting 498. LAbonbon:


All good here, rainy and overcast, but considering that would be a blessing to some, I won't complain :)

Good deal, you got wheels! And care to share your avatar's name? She is gorgeous, btw.


The sweetest dog ever! 6 years old........my wife named her Josie! The new wheels will come in handy!
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
134 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS LIGHT ECHOES NOW MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALTHOUGH TEMPS ACROSS THE MID
STATE ARE FOR THE MOST PART SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER,
LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS (15-20F) DO LEAVE SOME ROOM FOR
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPS UPSTREAM WHERE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN
PRECIPITATING ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING, SO BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SNOW. LATEST HPC
SNOWFALL PROGS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNTS WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING, SO AM GOING TO LEAVE THE SNOW GRIDS ALONE THIS
FORECAST. NAM BRINGS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BETWEEN 00Z & 06Z, WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z. LOOK FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TOMORROW AS A
SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES THROUGH BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL LATER
IN THE WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT ACTIVE SYSTEM MOVES IN. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A SPRING-LIKE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET APPEAR TO SET THE TABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE WE TURN COLDER AGAIN.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 494. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Hey, Joe!

Nice to see you again. Does this mean I have to break out the pea shooters and spit balls again? ;-)


They may be needed! My reputation precedes me! How are things Lindy?
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sigh..I try to not comment but..

A lot of you that go out your way to ridicule bloggers must have been picked on in gym class..high school was many moons ago for some of yall..I can tell you that you should just let it go and not take it out on strangers..there is no football team blogging here and you wont be stuffed in any lockers..

You can debate without throwing insults which rarely happens in this place which is why I don't comment on AGW anymore as it always leads in a ban for me and the other parties are free to insult other people..Rood's blog is a war zone and if you dont want to be flag out don't even bother going in there which is why the discussion has moved morel in Dr. Masters arguing as the internet traffic is higher in here..I will defend myself on here as some of you are quite aware but it shouldn't even come to that..its only weather or climate blog but some make it personal every day as I have quietly watched..I still don't understand that reasoning..

Flooding issues looking to be a possiblity for Eastern NC/SC







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Quoting 468. NativeSun:

What time and effort, which one has the climate science degrees and doing all the work. It's easy reading someone else's papers and copying the info, do a little research on your own, then you see the amount of time and effort it really takes to write these papers.
I am a published author in my field (pharmacy). I know how much effort it takes to do scientific research. Sure it's easy to copy info, but is it easy to understand what you are copying? Some folks have made it patently clear that they lack the critical thinking skills to comprehend what they are reading and that is evidenced through their posts.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Sorry for being a mile off topic. This isn't weather related, or climate change related, or even science related.

But, I just watched it for the first time 10 minutes ago, and I was almost moved to tears. Just felt I had to share it. It's the most moving video I've ever seen on the Internet. The guy who caught it deserves a medal.

Link
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Quoting 490. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Beautiful day! 75 or so.......got about 1" of rain last weekend and another storm forecast for this weekend. I went for a drive around the park with my avatar as the Veterans Healthcare San Diego delivered me a scooter today! The dog is not sure what to make of it yet...lol....I will go easy on her. How are things your way?

All good here, rainy and overcast, but considering that would be a blessing to some, I won't complain :)

Good deal, you got wheels! And care to share your avatar's name? She is gorgeous, btw.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Somebody has to suffer in sunny and 80 degree weather. I don't know if I can take it.

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Quoting 478. NativeSun:

I don't think people think climate change is a conspiracy, it's just there is so much we don't know about what causes our climate to heat up or cool down. CO2 is a trace gas, yes it is a green house gas, but still a minor gas, and maybe the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is causing some of the warming, but I doubt it is the sole contributor. Methane is another green house gas and this is the one I would be worried about, and their is not a lot we can do about it as humans are not contributing a whole lot to the atmosphere, and there is a lot stored underground and under the oceans. I like it warmer than colder, so I hope for a little climate change on the warm side as the alterative is a whole lot worse for human kind. If we do get another ice age in the near future, we won't have to worry about man made CO2 causing a warming climate as there will probably be a lot less humans on the planet.


The answer to preventing an ice age is not to go in the opposite direction 60 times faster.

You can think of greenhouse gases as "active ingredients" with respect to global warming, and the bulk of the atmosphere as "inactive ingredients" with respect to global warming. Significantly increasing the amount of one of the significant active ingredients has a warming effect.

Taking a small pill with a large glass of water wouldn't imply that the pill would have little or no effect because it was taken with a much larger amount of a medicinally inactive substance. It would be silly to suggest that doubling the dosage would have no effect only because the pills are so small compared to the water that they were taken with.

The atmospheric methane concentration is much smaller than the atmospheric CO2 concentration, but methane's effect relative to its concentration is much greater. Overall, increasing atmospheric CO2 is considered to be a bigger problem currently than increasing atmospheric methane.
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Quoting 492. opal92nwf:

It's also hard to believe all this stuff when the mature adults I'm around in my family and community all dismiss GW as I live in one of or the most conservative counties in FL.


I'm sorry to hear that. Political views shouldn't have any impact on a persons belief in scientific facts/evidence.
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Quoting 490. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Beautiful day! 75 or so.......got about 1" of rain last weekend and another storm forecast for this weekend. I went for a drive around the park with my avatar as the Veterans Healthcare San Diego delivered me a scooter today! The dog is not sure what to make of it yet...lol....I will go easy on her. How are things your way?


Hey, Joe!

Nice to see you again. Does this mean I have to break out the pea shooters and spit balls again? ;-)
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
200 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER STORM TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...

.A STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST TODAY WILL SHIFT TO OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY MORNING. AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...SNOW WILL THE MAIN WEATHER TYPE. SOME
RAIN WILL BE MIXED IN EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS...EAST TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...BEFORE CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WINTER STORM WILL EXIT BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

VAZ045>047-260300-
/O.UPG.KRNK.WW.Y.0014.150226T0000Z-150226T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KRNK.WS.W.0004.150226T0000Z-150226T1800Z/
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX
200 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...CAMPBELL...APPOMATTOX AND BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY
HIGHER 5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR ANY DAMAGE
CAUSED BY THE SNOW TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA EMAIL AT
RNK.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV OR AT PHONE NUMBER 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...
4 3 2 4.FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB
AT HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

YOU ARE ALSO WELCOME TO POST REPORTS ON OUR FACEBOOK OR TWITTER
PAGES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather