Are We Entering a New Period of Rapid Global Warming?

By: Bob Henson , 5:04 PM GMT on February 24, 2015

Residents of New England may understandably look back at 2015 as the year of their never-ending winter. For the planet as a whole, though, this year could stand out most for putting to rest the “hiatus”— the 15-year slowdown in atmospheric warming that gained intense scrutiny by pundits, scientists, and the public. While interesting in its own right, the hiatus garnered far more attention than it deserved as a purported sign that future global warming would be much less than expected. The slowdown was preceded by almost 20 years of dramatic global temperature rise, and with 2014 having set a new global record high, there are signs that another decade-plus period of intensified atmospheric warming may be at our doorstep.

The most compelling argument for a renewed surge in global air temperature is rooted in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This index tracks the fingerprint of sea surface temperature (SST) across the Pacific north of 20°N. A closely related index, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), covers a larger swath of the entire Pacific. Both the PDO and IPO capture back-and-forth swings in the geography of Pacific SSTs that affect the exchange of heat between ocean and atmosphere (see Figure 1). We’ll use PDO as shorthand for both indexes in the following discussion.

The PDO typically leans toward a positive or negative state for more than a decade at a time. The positive phase, which features warmer-than-average SSTs along the U.S. West Coast, was dominant from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. The PDO then flipped to a negative phase between about 1999 and 2013, with cooler-than-average SSTs along the West Coast. Figure 2 shows that even when a particular mode is favored, the PDO can still flip back to its opposite mode for periods of a few months or so.


Figure 1. Departures from average sea-surface temperature (degrees C) and wind (arrows) that typically prevail when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its positive mode (left) and negative mode (right). Image credit: University of Washington.


It’s not clear exactly what drives the PDO, but in some ways it can be viewed as a geographically expanded version of the SST patterns created by El Niño and La Niña, averaged over a longer time period. (See Figure 2.) It’s well-established that El Niño can raise global temperature for a few months by several tenths of a degree Celsius, as warm water spreads over the eastern tropical Pacific and mixes with the overlying atmosphere. Likewise, La Niña can act to pull down global average temperature, as cooler-than-average water extends further west than usual across the tropical Pacific. The PDO mirrors these trends, but over longer periods. When the PDO is positive, there are more El Niño and fewer La Niña events, and heat stored in the ocean tends to be spread across a larger surface area, allowing it to enter the atmosphere more easily. When the PDO is negative, SSTs are below average across a larger area, and global air temperatures tend to be lower.


Figure 2. Typical warm and cool anomalies in sea-surface temperature during positive PDO years (left) and El Niño years (right). The patterns are similar, though with differences in intensity over some regions. The anomalies are reversed for negative PDO and La Niña years. Image credit: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.


Figure 3 shows a striking connection between favored PDO modes (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). The vast majority of atmospheric warming over the last century occurred during positive PDO phases, with negative PDOs tending to result in flat temperature trends. It’s easy to see how an atmospheric warming “hiatus” could occur during a negative PDO phase.


Figure 3. PDO values (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). Gray shading indicates positive PDO periods, when atmospheric warming was most evident. The NOAA PDO values shown here vary slightly from those discussed in the article, which are calculated by the University of Washington. Image credit: Jerimiah Brown, Weather Underground. Data sources:NOAA (top) and NOAA/NCDC (bottom).


From the AMS meeting
The hiatus was discussed at length in a series of talks during the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society last month in Phoenix. Jerry Meehl, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (my former employer), gave a whirlwind 15-minute overview of hiatus-oriented research conducted over the last six years. Meehl’s talk can be viewed online. More than 20 papers have studied the hiatus and its links to the PDO/IPO, according to Matthew England (University of New South Wales). Most of the flattening of global temperature during the hiatus can be traced to cooler-than-average conditions over the eastern tropical Pacific, which pulled down global averages. An emerging theme is that natural, or internal, variability in the tropical Pacific can explain at least half of the hiatus. NCAR’s Clara Deser presented new modeling evidence along these lines (see video online). Other factors may be involved as well, including a series of weak volcanic eruptions that could explain a small part of the hiatus, according to a recent analysis by Ben Santer (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).

One crucial point is that global warming didn’t “stop” during the hiatus: the world’s oceans actually gained heat at an accelerated pace. Trade winds blew more strongly from east to west across the Pacific, consistent with the tendency toward La Niña conditions, as described in this open-access article by NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo. Over parts of the central tropical Pacific, trade winds averaged about 3 mph stronger during 1999-2012 compared to 1976-1988. These speeds are higher than for any previous hiatus on record, bolstering the idea that other factors may have joined this negative PDO/IPO phase. The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches. Other parts of the deep ocean warmed as well. A new study led by Dean Roemmich (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) maps the areas of greatest ocean heating from 2006 to 2013 and finds that significant warming extended to depths of greater than 6600 feet.

What next for the PDO?
The PDO index, as calculated at the University of Washington, scored positive values during every month in 2014, the first such streak since 2003. By December it reached +2.51, the largest positive value for any December in records that go back to 1900. The January value from UW was 2.45, again a monthly record. (NOAA calculates its own PDO values through a closely related methodology.)

Because the PDO can flip modes for a year or more within its longer-term cycle, we don’t yet know whether a significant shift to a positive PDO phase has begun. If trade winds weaken throughout this year, and positive PDO values persist, that’ll be strong evidence that a new cycle is indeed under way. The last time we saw a two-year streak of positive values was in 1992-93. If this occurs, and assuming no spikes in major volcanic activity, we could expect greater rises in global temperature over the next 10 to 15 years than we’ve seen during the hiatus. In addition, we should watch for El Niño to make its presence known more often.

“I am inclined to think the hiatus is over, mainly based on the PDO index change,” NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth told me. While Matthew England isn’t ready to offer such a prediction, he emphasized that any post-hiatus global temperature rise is likely to be fairly rapid. Trenberth also commented on an interesting NOAA analysis (see Figure 4): “If one takes the global mean temperature from 1970 on, everything fits a linear trend quite well except 1998.”


Figure 4. When looking at global temperature over a full PDO cycle (1970s to 2010s), the overall rise becomes evident, despite the flattening observed in the last 15 years. Image credit: NOAA.


A record-strong El Niño occurred in 1998, providing an unusually powerful boost to global temperature and fueling years of subsequent declarations that “global warming stopped in 1998.” The record warmth of 2014 made it clear that global warming has no intention of stopping, and the next few years are likely to reinforce that point. Nevertheless, snowbound New Englanders, and millions of other easterners now dealing with record cold for so late in the year, may be wondering why eastern North America has seen so much cold and snow in the past few winters--especially this one--and how long that climatic quirk might continue. Stay tuned for a separate post on that topic.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
200 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER STORM TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...

.A STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST TODAY WILL SHIFT TO OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY MORNING. AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...SNOW WILL THE MAIN WEATHER TYPE. SOME
RAIN WILL BE MIXED IN EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS...EAST TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...BEFORE CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WINTER STORM WILL EXIT BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

VAZ045>047-260300-
/O.UPG.KRNK.WW.Y.0014.150226T0000Z-150226T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KRNK.WS.W.0004.150226T0000Z-150226T1800Z/
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX
200 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...CAMPBELL...APPOMATTOX AND BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY
HIGHER 5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR ANY DAMAGE
CAUSED BY THE SNOW TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA EMAIL AT
RNK.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV OR AT PHONE NUMBER 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...
4 3 2 4.FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB
AT HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

YOU ARE ALSO WELCOME TO POST REPORTS ON OUR FACEBOOK OR TWITTER
PAGES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$
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It's also hard to believe all this stuff when the mature adults I'm around in my family and community all dismiss GW. I live in the most or one of the most conservative counties in FL.
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National Weather Service 11 am briefing images from Raleigh N.C.
Shows details for the region including ice accumulations and timing of the event.
Link
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Quoting 462. LAbonbon:

Afternoon, Joe - how are things out your way?


Beautiful day! 75 or so.......got about 1" of rain last weekend and another storm forecast for this weekend. I went for a drive around the park with my avatar as the Veterans Healthcare San Diego delivered me a scooter today! The dog is not sure what to make of it yet...lol....I will go easy on her. How are things your way?
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SREF Plume mean for Raleigh now shows more than 11 inches of snow for the upcoming storm. Hope they don't have a repeat of this scene from one of their last big snows



Edit: never mind. link for picture not working :(
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Quoting 465. Phaselinear:

"It's the Sun stupid"...so says the bumper sticker. I read several articles over the years on this subject, and a couple stood out. Why are the other planets warming too, but have no HUMAN footprint on them to cause a sudden shift in temperatures? The Sun is a cyclic entity, and has it's moments too. There is nothing we can do about it. The only thing man can do to clean up the planet is not to pollute it, and that's it.


Your sources have lied to you about all of the planets currently warming because of the Sun.
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Quoting 484. uncwhurricane85:

can someon post snowfall amount prediction for next 24 hours for N.C.

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Quoting 469. SeriouslySushi:



What's ridiculous is thinking we can alter the chemical composition of our atmosphere without consequence.
What's even more ridiculous, I just had a great Sushi lunch, now if we can stop polluting the oceans and air, I will be able to enjoy my daily sushi uptake for a long time to come, also need to stop the radioactive waste being dumped into the pacific ocean as I will have to curtail my sushi and sashimi seafood choices. Is a warmer planet suppose to bring more rain and thunderstorms to South Florida, if so I'm all for it.
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Wow, I just now saw all the hubbub that ensued after last night.. I admit I snapped a little and that thing I wrote was sort of a emotional armchair retort. For those who responded, I respect your truthful corrections and pointers, but let me give you one. This will go a lot smoother if we leave personal power struggles/egos/mocking tone out of the corrections. I'd really appreciate it. And I know I'm speaking for myself as well.
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can someon post snowfall amount prediction for next 24 hours for N.C.
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Is thundersnow a possibility somewhere in the Charlotte-Raleigh-Norfolk corridor for this storm?
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The euro shows 18-20 inches for D.C next Tuesday XD.last lol
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Long new article in the English edition of "Spiegel" (*starts to read it*):



The Warming World: Is Capitalism Destroying Our Planet?
Spiegel English, February 25, 2015 - 06:05 PM, by Alexander Jung, Horand Knaup, Samiha Shafy and Bernhard Zand
World leaders decided in Copenhagen that global warming should be limited to 2 degrees Celsius. Achieving that target, though, would take nothing less than a miracle. With another round of climate negotiations approaching, it is becoming increasingly clear that mankind has failed to address its most daunting problem ...

SPIEGEL Interview with Naomi Klein: 'The Economic System We Have Created Global Warming'
Spiegel English, February 25, 2015 - 06:05 PM. Interview Conducted by Klaus Brinkbaeumer
Can we still stop global warming? Only if we radically change our capitalist system, argues author Naomi Klein. In an interview with SPIEGEL, she explains why the time has come to abandon small steps for a radical new approach. ...


I see: those articles are translations from the current German edition, dealing with GW.
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TWC expert said parts of northern North Carolina (N.E. region) could see up to 18" on snow.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
201 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015


VAZ025-036-037-508-260315-
/O.EXT.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.150226T0200Z-150226T1700Z/
AUGUSTA-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...WINTERGREEN
201 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
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Quoting 426. SouthTampa:

I dunno, Sar. If a poster has been around a long time and still posts that he thinks AGW is a conspiracy, I have a hard time thinking that poster is (a) here to learn and (b) being honest about his intentions. I'm not here to dole out beatings - the aforementioned posters do a fantastic job of that in the intellectual sense. I may give an occasional bravo to a good post (usually done with the plus button) or a cocked-eyebrow bit of snark to a poorly thought-out post. If I find a user to consistently post garbage, I put them on the ignore list.
I don't think people think climate change is a conspiracy, it's just there is so much we don't know about what causes our climate to heat up or cool down. CO2 is a trace gas, yes it is a green house gas, but still a minor gas, and maybe the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is causing some of the warming, but I doubt it is the sole contributor. Methane is another green house gas and this is the one I would be worried about, and their is not a lot we can do about it as humans are not contributing a whole lot to the atmosphere, and there is a lot stored underground and under the oceans. I like it warmer than colder, so I hope for a little climate change on the warm side as the alterative is a whole lot worse for human kind. If we do get another ice age in the near future, we won't have to worry about man made CO2 causing a warming climate as there will probably be a lot less humans on the planet.
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Just started snowing in Midtown Atlanta. Its currently a mix of sleet and big fat wet flakes.
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Quoting 469. SeriouslySushi:



What's ridiculous is thinking we can alter the chemical composition of our atmosphere without consequence.

Yup. A couple of images from December, 2013. How can this not affect it?

Smog Shrouds Eastern China (NASA Earth Observatory Image of the Day from December 10, 2013)

(Source & additional information)


Liangyungang, China, Getty Images, December 2013
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-06 6>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261800-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-C ARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-C OBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOU GLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORD ON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY -HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMP KIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGA N-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY- SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR- TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WA LTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX -WILKES-
WILKINSON-
100 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOW UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY
MORNING...

RAIN AND SLEET STARTING IN NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
ALL SNOW LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVNING. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY
AT TIMES WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH. PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND OTHER
MESSAGES ON NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER DOT GOV OR OUR MESSAGES
ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS WINTER STORM.

BLACK ICE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY OVER NORTH GEORGIA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

BLACK ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUIRED BUT OBSERVERS ARE STRONGLY
ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT SNOW AMOUNTS AND ROAD CONDITIONS ON THE WEB
AT WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA OR WITH TWITTER USING THE GAWX HASHTAG OR
TAGGING AT NWS ATLANTA.

$$

$$
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Just had a friend call me from Buckhead, they had a snow/sleet mix with a clap of thunder. Still sleeting in Atlanta proper. Starting to get some sleet accumulations on surfaces. Roads are still good.
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Quoting 421. fillmup:

It's obvious that the earth is warmer within recent history, however, hasn't the climate temperature fluctuated cyclically over millions of years? There are warm ups and cool downs, ice ages, droughts, heat waves and what have you. Even Antarctica was once sub-tropical. Attempting to put the blame on mankind's contribution to pollution is a mere drop in the bucket. Thinking that we can or even have the capability to modify our global climate is ridiculous.

Exactly!
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Quoting 465. Phaselinear:

"It's the Sun stupid"...so says the bumper sticker. I read several articles over the years on this subject, and a couple stood out. Why are the other planets warming too, but have no HUMAN footprint on them to cause a sudden shift in temperatures? The Sun is a cyclic entity, and has it's moments too. There is nothing we can do about it. The only thing man can do to clean up the planet is not to pollute it, and that's it.


There are three fundamental flaws in the 'other planets are warming' argument. Not all planets in the solar system are warming. The sun has shown no long term trend since 1950 and in fact has shown a slight cooling trend in recent decades. There are explanations for why other planets are warming.
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Quoting 468. NativeSun:

What time and effort, which one has the climate science degrees and doing all the work. It's easy reading someone else's papers and copying the info, do a little research on your own, then you see the amount of time and effort it really takes to write these papers.


Vacuous twaddle.
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Quoting 421. fillmup:

Thinking that we can or even have the capability to modify our global climate is ridiculous.


What's ridiculous is thinking we can alter the chemical composition of our atmosphere without consequence.
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Quoting 372. SouthTampa:

"Tangible". Bravo, Xyrus. This is one of the best and more thorough fiskings I've read in a long time. I am amazed by the time and effort Naga, Nea, you and others put forth defending sound science. Thanks to all of you... I am merely good for snark: opal, you got pwnd.
What time and effort, which one has the climate science degrees and doing all the work. It's easy reading someone else's papers and copying the info, do a little research on your own, then you see the amount of time and effort it really takes to write these papers.
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First direct observation of carbon dioxide's increasing greenhouse effect Link

This study is the smoking gun. The first direct confirmation that CO2 tips the radiation balance in earth's atmosphere. Very important study here.
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Quoting 458. sar2401:

LOL. Now take however long it will be there and double it for Alabama. My street was supposed to be repaved three years ago. They sent a crack team of two men and a small boy out last year. They stuck a bunch of sprinkler flags in the curb lawns and had the boy spray paint some tags on the street. That's been the total extent of progress in three years. We have a neighborhood pool going on how many of our senior citizen neighbors will die before the street gets done. My pick was seven. :-)


And if the winning number was chosen by someone who accounts for the total?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
"It's the Sun stupid"...so says the bumper sticker. I read several articles over the years on this subject, and a couple stood out. Why are the other planets warming too, but have no HUMAN footprint on them to cause a sudden shift in temperatures? The Sun is a cyclic entity, and has it's moments too. There is nothing we can do about it. The only thing man can do to clean up the planet is not to pollute it, and that's it.
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All must be the same..... march to same drummer......

Central Region offices will migrate to a new layout on their web home pages, Effective March 30, 2015

Excerpt:

On, or shortly after, Monday, March 30, 2015, all Central Region
(CR) NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), River Forecast Centers
(RFCs) and Center Weather Service Units (CWSUs) will migrate to a
new layout on the front page of their web home pages. This is in
response to a required web infrastructure consolidation that will
occur by the end of 2015. The change will also provide office to
office consistency because the layout of the home page will be
set across the region and eventually across the nation.



Example:

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Avalanches bury homes in Afghanistan; 124 dead, dozens missing
WP, By Brian Murphy February 25 at 10:30 AM
Rescue teams in Afghanistan used shovels and bare hands Wednesday to try to reach possible survivors after a series of avalanches buried villages and roads. An official said at least 124 people were killed and dozens missing.
Deadly winter avalanches are common in Afghanistan’s mountainous regions, but the latest snowslides in the northeastern Panjshir province and nearby areas could rank among the country’s deadliest. ...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Afternoon, Joe - how are things out your way?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 454. barbamz:


True, lack of fresh water and drought is the worst. BTW leading German magazine "Spiegel" this morning had as first headline on its internet site an article (with photo gallery) about water-theft in California.


Thanks! I'm very familiar with Spiegel after my trip to Berlin and Dresden a couple years back. Everyone I knew there used it as their internet home page for news. It always amazes me that things like the California water situation are newsworthy halfway around the globe, but here in the states it is largely ignored.
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Good Morning Class!
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Euro shows 4 inches with the potential for this to trend more north.May be dealing with a additional 6 inches tomorrow.jdynbdtyinnlnb
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Quoting Naga5000:


I only know you're joking because nothing ever happens in just "a few days" here. :)
LOL. Now take however long it will be there and double it for Alabama. My street was supposed to be repaved three years ago. They sent a crack team of two men and a small boy out last year. They stuck a bunch of sprinkler flags in the curb lawns and had the boy spray paint some tags on the street. That's been the total extent of progress in three years. We have a neighborhood pool going on how many of our senior citizen neighbors will die before the street gets done. My pick was seven. :-)
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Quoting 448. sar2401:

Assuming that I don't get hit with two inches between now and 6 pm, which is actually possible, the WPC may be in the ballpark on this one. Not that I believe for one minute that the model tought a line of powerful thunderstorms today would be the main contributor to the rainfall total but still, a win is a win.

And here it's exceeded...
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Torrential downpour
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Quoting 440. Naga5000:


...I've stated time and time again, that I believe our largest issue will be access to fresh water. I have no doubt we are resilient enough to deal with increases in just temperature and food stresses with minor issues in the short to longer term, when we start running low on fresh water a lot of crap will hit the proverbial fan. I don't think people truly understand all the things we use fresh water for beyond drinking and watering crops.

True, lack of fresh water and drought is the worst. BTW leading German magazine "Spiegel" this morning had as first headline on its internet site an article (with photo gallery) about water-theft in California.
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Quoting 445. sar2401:

I have notified the Florida Real Estate Commission. You can expect a visit from one of their courteous but heavily armed customer service reps in a few days. :-)


I only know you're joking because nothing ever happens in just "a few days" here. :)
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Lightning getting close now and wind picking up.
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451. sar2401
6:28 PM GMT on February 25, 2015
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Checked the local observations for Pensacola and there wasn't much wind with the line that passed through.
Kind of weird too because it looks like a line that should have some wind with it. It's about two shades of black away from looking like sunset here and the rain is really starting up again. My wind is 2 mph with 4 mph gusts. These things never fail to amaze me, although I have yet to hear thunder. Storms near New Orleans are stating to bloom again, and the cells over the Panhandle are producing about 55 strokes a minute. This really wasn't quite in the forecast today.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
450. opal92nwf
6:26 PM GMT on February 25, 2015
I'm liking this rainy pattern that keeps being advertised.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
449. weathermanwannabe
6:25 PM GMT on February 25, 2015
430. sar2401
1:01 PM EST on February 25, 2015


Yup; the common issue of "jogs" with lows that comes with the exact path margin of error. I learned that lesson here in the Big Bend several years ago with a late season tropical storm coming in from the Gulf. I had to work an emergency on a Saturday morning and we were under a tropical storm warning in Leon County; however, the center of the low passed right over us and all we got was a little wind and rain (and the storm dissipated shortly after landfall).

I will note that the event today/this evening is a marginal event compared to the frontal lines we will get later in the Spring with the severe weather season fronts.

Have to take the dog to the vet; see Yall tomorrow and keep your Noaa weather radios handy tonight in North Florida/Southern GA in case the jet ramps up a bit and we get an isolated tornado or two.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
448. sar2401
6:23 PM GMT on February 25, 2015
Quoting LAbonbon:

Assuming that I don't get hit with two inches between now and 6 pm, which is actually possible, the WPC may be in the ballpark on this one. Not that I believe for one minute that the model tought a line of powerful thunderstorms today would be the main contributor to the rainfall total but still, a win is a win.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
447. Sfloridacat5
6:22 PM GMT on February 25, 2015
Checked the local observations for Pensacola and there wasn't much wind with the line that passed through. I expected to see some high gusts.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
446. opal92nwf
6:20 PM GMT on February 25, 2015
Hear thunder. 45 degrees outside, wow!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
445. sar2401
6:18 PM GMT on February 25, 2015
Quoting Naga5000:



I plan on opening Orlando's first beach front bed and breakfast, the possibilities are limitless. :)
I have notified the Florida Real Estate Commission. You can expect a visit from one of their courteous but heavily armed customer service reps in a few days. :-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
444. opal92nwf
6:18 PM GMT on February 25, 2015
Yes!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
443. hurricanehunter27
6:17 PM GMT on February 25, 2015
Getting some decent sleet in Atlanta currently.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather