Severe weather in the plains tonight....moving into the SE U.S. this weekend

By: Levi32 , 3:11 AM GMT on February 23, 2007

Bedtime Update:

Thunderstorms have increased in coverage, but remain for the most part on the quiet side....for now. The main upper low and surface low haven't made it into the plains yet, and until they do, I think diurnal cooling will tame the storms down to mostly a hail threat with hail diameters not exceeding 1.25 inches. Tomorrow morning things will start to heat up again with the upper trough moving into the picture, and the surface low deepening over Kansas. The strong left front quad of the jet will provide ample upper-level support for the developing storms over the course of the afternoon. Squall lines along the dryline and cold front will advance eastward across Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi throughout the day. Late Saturday and Sunday the low will lose upper-level support and begin to fill near southern Michigan. There is a marginal severe weather threat for northern Florida due to a strong jet streak forecasted to move across the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. It is still uncertain how favorable conditions will be at this time, but considering the last two storms which have affected the Florida area, it only takes a low-level jet and some moisture to get severe weather going.

We shall see what happens!

8pm Update:

Strong t-storms have begun to develop over northern Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas. Severe weather threat will increase as the night goes on from SW Texas to southern Nebraska. Right now diurnal cooling is setting in, but the upper trough to the west will be steadily advancing east throughout the night, cooling upper-level temperatures and therefore increasing atmospheric instability over the entire area. I think the moist inflow from the Gulf of Mexico, the strong dryline, and upper dynamics coming into play will keep a tornado threat going throughout the night, but the main problem will be hail and damaging straight-line winds until tomorrow when the tornado threat will be renewed during afternoon heating. This is only the beginning of the outbreak. The storm system responsible isn't even entirely over the rockies yet. Tomorrow the low will be deepening over Kansas with a strong jet streak in the left front quad of the jet. All these factors will combine to produce more severe storms over parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, and the eastern plains tomorrow.

Update 4pm eastern:

The dryline is beginning to set up in extreme west Texas, and instability will continue to increase as the afternoon goes on. Clouds have limited daytime heating in central/northern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, but all other areas are heating up to near 70 degrees even up into Kansas. Dewpoints are also climbing as the southerly flow starts to grab moisture from the GOM. The first storms are still a few hours away. Be on your guard!

Friday morning update:

There is little change in the models since yesterday. The SPC outlook for today has a moderate risk area focused over Oklahoma, which is where the worst instability will set up late this afternoon. They have also issued a moderate risk area for Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi tomorrow. Severe storms should start developing late this afternoon into tonight over northern Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Some upper-level clouds are drifting northeastward over Texas into Oklahoma, and these could limit daytime heating somewhat, we'll have to see how that goes. The big question will be if the storms break the cap tonight. The main part of this event will be during the night, making it a very dangerous situation for residents.

Thursday evening update:

Some very active weather could be in store for the plains and southeastern states this weekend. An upper trough and associated low pressure system currently moving inland over northern California will move east over the Rockies tonight. By tomorrow morning the low will emerge over western Kansas, and begin to strengthen as the upper-level dynamics intensify. Plenty of low-level moisture is expected to be present due to good inflow from the Gulf of Mexico, with 55 degree dewpoints making it all the way up into northern Kansas tomorrow afternoon. Right now the models are forecasting decent instability down through northern Texas, but exactly how unstable the atmosphere becomes will rest on how much daytime heating will take place. There is a possibility of some clouds moving into the area prior to the arival of the warm front, which could limit daytime heating somewhat. If this is the case then the storms may find it hard to break the inversion cap, but I don't think the cap will be strong enough to hold down the instability that will be developing as the afternoon goes on.

As the low moves east, an impressive dry-line is forecast to develop over western Texas late tomorrow night, and steadily advance eastward through Louisiana and Mississippi. This is a classic setup with plenty of moisture over eastern Texas and Louisiana and very dry air over western Texas and New Mexico. A strong squall line will likely develop along the dry-line Friday night with embedded supercells. Plenty of shear will be present, and tornadoes are definitely a threat. Severe storms will continue on Saturday over Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, and even Tennessee could see some action Saturday night. By Sunday morning the low will be rapidly losing upper-level support, and will begin to fill while moving northeast over southern Michigan. Thunderstorms will continue to affect Alabama, Georgia, and maybe even Florida Sunday afternoon. The storms will gradually diminish in intensity as they move east, and the tornado threat should be minimal by the time they get into Georgia. However things are a little more complicated for northern and central Florida. Depending on how far south the trough digs, thunderstorms could make it down as far south as Orlando, providing some much needed rain for those areas. The forecast challenge is whether or not these storms will become severe. The 18z model runs are now showing a second jet streak forming over the Gulf of Mexico and moving east during Sunday. We still need to see a few more runs to be sure, but if the models are correct, the chances of severe weather in northern and central Florida will be greatly increased.

Right now the SPC has a moderate risk area for the plains tomorrow, and a slight risk area for the gulf coast states on Saturday, which may get upgraded depending on how the storm develops. Bottom line this has the potential to be a significant outbreak, and residents should be ready for a rough ride over the next couple days.

We shall see what happens!




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Reader Comments

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117. Levi32
4:26 PM GMT on February 24, 2007
New blog up.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
116. weatherboykris
3:57 PM GMT on February 24, 2007
Levi,good morning.Bit of a lull going on.Check my blog.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
115. Levi32
3:56 PM GMT on February 24, 2007
Good morning guys! Give me a minute to look at the latest data and I'll write a new blog for today.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
112. ryang
3:33 PM GMT on February 24, 2007
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 30
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ARKANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 845 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY INTENSE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 120KT MID LEVEL JET
MAX ROTATING EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS. WITH IMPRESSIVE RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE UNDERWAY ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. CURRENT INHIBITION WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN NEWD
ACROSS WATCH AREA WITH MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION.
TORNADO POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WATCH. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
THERMODYNAMICS...DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.


...HALES


SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 30
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ARKANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 845 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY INTENSE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 120KT MID LEVEL JET
MAX ROTATING EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS. WITH IMPRESSIVE RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE UNDERWAY ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. CURRENT INHIBITION WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN NEWD
ACROSS WATCH AREA WITH MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION.
TORNADO POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WATCH. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
THERMODYNAMICS...DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
111. ryang
3:32 PM GMT on February 24, 2007
Hey Levi,here's the lastest!

map
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
110. Raysfan70
12:33 PM GMT on February 24, 2007
Good Morning {{Levi}}!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
109. Levi32
7:07 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
I'm off to bed guys. My latest update is at the top of my entry. See y'all tomorrow.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
108. weatherboykris
4:05 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
107. Levi32
3:22 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
Hey David.

Alright well I have to go it's dinner time in Alaska, and then we're going somewhere for a couple hours, so I won't be back until 1:30-2:00am eastern time. See you all later!

Note: new t-storms forming in west-central Texas.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
106. Tazmanian
3:15 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
hello
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
105. Levi32
3:10 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
Tornado moving right through Moordland, OK, or just east of Woodward. Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
104. Levi32
3:07 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
Hey Kris. Thanks! You're right this is just the beginning. I'm going to have to leave at about 10:45pm eastern time, and won't be back until 1:30-2:00am eastern.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
103. weatherboykris
3:05 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
Levi,I'm on a quick fly-by.I'll be back in a half hour and will update my blog and join the discussion with you guys about it then.This outbreak's just getting started.As I said,I'll be back in a half hour.Nice update by the way.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
102. Levi32
3:02 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
858 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HEMPHILL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
NORTHERN WHEELER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 1000 PM CST

* AT 851 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW
MOBEETIE...OR ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRISCOE...
NEW MOBEETIE...
ALLISON...
WHEELER...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
101. Levi32
2:54 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
New tornado watch for Kansas:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
100. Levi32
2:33 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
826 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN SEWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

* UNTIL 915 PM CST

* AT 823 PM CST...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED A REPORT OF DIME SIZE
HAIL IN THE SOUTH PART OF LIBERAL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LIBERAL...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED TO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LIBERAL AND WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LIBERAL
THROUGH 915 PM CST.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF SOUTHEASTERN SEWARD COUNTY...
LIBERAL...
HAYNE...
KISMET...

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA UNTIL 6 AM CST.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
99. Levi32
2:29 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
827 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CST

* AT 827 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF SHARON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MOORELAND...SHARON AND WOODWARD.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
98. Levi32
2:17 AM GMT on February 24, 2007


Temps are cooling down into the low 60s in the plains as the evening wares on. This should put a damper on the current batch of storms until the upper low and cold front show up.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
97. Levi32
2:11 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
Hailstorms riding north into southern Kansas. Link

These areas are going to get a double-whammy when the upper low moves east tomorrow.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
96. Levi32
2:01 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
The batch of severe storms over Texas and Oklahoma is weakening somewhat with the arrival of diurnal cooling. However more storms should develop and intensify during the overnight hours due to cooling aloft as the upper trough slides east. Jet dynamics will also start coming into play by tomorrow morning. A strong low-level jet and moisture from the GOM will keep a threat of tornadoes along the dryline from western Texas through northern Kansas. More storms will sprout when the cold front makes it across the rockies and into the plains late tonight. That's when the action will start increasing into the morning hours, when we could be dealing with some pretty serious stuff.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
94. Levi32
1:18 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
I'm out for about 30 minutes. Need to take a small break before things ramp up really bad. More tornadoes are being reported in the Texas panhandle. More storms could start forming over SW Texas any time, and additional cells will be overtaking Kansas in the next several hours. Again the worst will be tomorrow.

Be back later.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
93. Levi32
12:54 AM GMT on February 24, 2007


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL KS INTO S CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240045Z - 240245Z

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS PARTS OF WRN
AND CENTRAL KS AND INTO S CENTRAL NEB AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH -- POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2 OF HOURS.

STRONG SLY SURFACE WINDS ARE INDICATED ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL KS/WRN
AND CENTRAL OK...WITHIN WARM SECTOR WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S. SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MID 50S DEWPOINTS
NWD INTO KS...WHICH COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING UPPER FEATURE WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
SMALL CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE NOW INDICATED BY RADAR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY S AND SW OF DDC/GCK...AND WITH STRONG UVV
CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING.
THOUGH DIURNAL COOLING HAS BEGUN ACROSS THIS REGION...LOW-LEVEL
MIXING/TURBULENCE MAY ALLOW EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER TO REMAIN
SURFACE-BASED...AND THUS THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR HAIL.

..GOSS.. 02/24/2007
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
92. ryang
12:44 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
map

Big area to get hit!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
91. Levi32
12:43 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
I'll be back in 10 minutes. Have to go do something.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
90. Levi32
12:41 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
Storm E0 starting to hook. Very strong rotation on velocity imagery. A possible tornado could be located under there. Watch out areas north of wheeler! Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
89. Levi32
12:35 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CST

* AT 632 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUFFALO...CATESBY...LAVERNE...MAY
AND ROSSTON.

TAKE SHELTER FROM THE STORM IN A STURDY BUILDING AND MOVE AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
88. ryang
12:35 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
map

More warnings added.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
87. Levi32
12:30 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 623 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR QUAIL...OR ABOUT 13 MILES
NORTH OF MEMPHIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAMNORWOOD...
QUAIL...
LUTIE...
DOZIER...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS!

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
86. Levi32
12:28 AM GMT on February 24, 2007


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS SWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 27...

VALID 240015Z - 240145Z

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW.

LATEST RADAR LOOP REVEALS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE TX PANHANDLE...MOVING QUICKLY NEWD. STORMS ARE ROTATING --
PER RADAR-OBSERVED ROTATION SIGNATURES AND STORM SPLITS...AND A
RECENT TORNADO REPORT HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM SOUTHEASTERN GRAY
COUNTY.

THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MORE STABLE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO WRN
OK...OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/SEVERE WEATHER
AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES --
PARTICULARLY FROM FAR WRN OK WWD...ALONG WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

..GOSS.. 02/24/2007
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
85. Levi32
12:27 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
Tornado report and hail report in northern Texas. The tornado was reported near Mclean, and .75-inch hail was observed near Alanreed. Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
84. Levi32
12:23 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
617 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LIPSCOMB COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 700 PM CST

* AT 615 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
SOUTH OF LIPSCOMB...MOVING NORTH AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIPSCOMB...
FOLLETT...
DARROUZETT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
83. Levi32
12:22 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
The storm that probably has the tornado is E0. It is showing strong rotation on velocity images. Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
82. ryang
12:20 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
map

Warnings up!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
81. Tazmanian
12:20 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
ok then
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
80. Levi32
12:17 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
Tornado warning for Kellerville and Mclean!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
608 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERN WHEELER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 602 PM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
MCLEAN...OR ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF SHAMROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KELLERVILLE...
MCLEAN...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
79. Levi32
12:16 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
David that's a sub-988mb low off the Washington coast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
78. ryang
12:16 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
Hi!!

map

Looks to be heating up!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
77. Levi32
12:15 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
LOL ric!!

I'm not sure I understood the first part of your post entirely, but remember this: In your own words you are WU's best idiot, and idiots are worthless! LOL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
76. Tazmanian
12:12 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
is that a 988mb low off of ca?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
75. Tazmanian
12:09 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
hello
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74. ricderr
12:09 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
hey guys..notice how when one of the younger set needs to leave another one jumps up and fills in..no gripes..no animosity...no sweat...keep it up guys...oh..and don't forget..you're kids....and kids are worthless...LOL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
73. Levi32
12:08 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
Hey Ryan!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
72. ryang
12:07 AM GMT on February 24, 2007
Hey Levi!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
71. Levi32
12:05 AM GMT on February 24, 2007


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232351Z - 240145Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY
REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL MIDLAND TX /MAF/ RAOB AT 20Z THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS
UNSTABLE/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE A FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER...CAP IS MUCH WEAKER IN THIS SOUNDING THAN IS
INDICATED BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS
NOTED FROM THE TX BIG BEND REGION NWD TOWARD MAF...IT APPEARS THAT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE WITH TIME. GIVEN FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION...ANY STORM WHICH COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY ACQUIRE ROTATION -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THOUGH RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND LINGERING CAP
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE...SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 02/23/2007
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
70. Levi32
11:56 PM GMT on February 23, 2007
More storms developing in Oklahoma and southern Kansas with tops exceeding 30,000 feet already. Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
69. Levi32
11:50 PM GMT on February 23, 2007
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
448 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DONLEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 441 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CLARENDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENBELT LAKE...
HOWARDWICK...
CLARENDON...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

IF ON GREENBELT LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE TO SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT BE
CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
68. Levi32
11:44 PM GMT on February 23, 2007
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
522 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DONLEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
GRAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 615 PM CST

* AT 515 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SERIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR CLARENDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. A SECOND
STORM WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN GRAY COUNTY ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH. A THIRD STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN DONLEY COUNTY
WITHIN THE NEXT 20 MINUTES AND IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENBELT LAKE...
ALANREED...
HOWARDWICK...
CLARENDON...
LAKE MCCLELLAN...
MCLEAN...
LEFORS...
LELIA LAKE...
HEDLEY...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

IF ON GREENBELT LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE TO SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT BE
CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
67. Levi32
11:43 PM GMT on February 23, 2007
Yes you could get some David. Lucky for us here in Alaska our snow doesn't go away so easily, even on the trees lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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