Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.
By: Levi32 , 3:04 PM GMT on July 30, 2007
Hey guys. Been a while lol. Sorry I haven't been here but I've been pretty busy and my mom is having major major eye surgery tomorrow so things are a little stressful around here. But I always come back when a storm is brewing :)
This morning our little wave in the central Atlantic has decided to rear its head, and has been designated 99L. The primary reason for this is probably the increase in convection and the development of a possible surface circulation overnight. The latest QuikScat scan hasn't come in yet, but visible loops definitely show west winds at the surface in the southern semi-circle. Convection isn't all that impressive due to dry air in the area, but it's the most intense we've seen with a wave this far west all year, and there are already signs of upper-level outflow trying to establish itself.
The central Atlantic west of 40w has been the graveyard for most African waves this season. This is due to a large amount of dry air that has been hanging around that area for several weeks. 99L has a lot of this dry air to overcome before reaching the central Caribbean, which is where its present course is taking it. Convection with the system has decreased in intensity over the past couple hours, but the moisture shield is spreading slowly northward, and I think the wave has a fighting chance to survive the dry air if it continues to look this healthy. The wave is also moving into an area of 0-10 knot shear, increasing its chances significantly. This system is not in a situation where it can organize rapidly because of dry air, but all else looks good and slow development should progress. The major models have not yet initialized the system on the 6z runs, but they should have it on the 12z and 18z runs, which will be very interesting to look at. The strong upper ridge over the central Atlantic should steer this into the central Caribbean before it makes any move north. Bottom line is that this has the potential to become TD #3 sometime tomorrow, and is something to be watched intently over the coming days.
To coin a phrase: "ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS."
We shall see what happens!
ABNT20 KNHC 301501
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE. THIS AREA SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
^Click for Loop^
^Click for Loop^
NASA zoomed-in visible loop of 99L
Model tracks for 99L
Model intensity forecasts for 99L
SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates
CIMSS Dvorak Intensity Estimates
SSD tropical formation probability and other maps
CIMSS satellite derived winds and analysis
Navy Tropical Cyclone Page
National Hurricane Center
NASA High-resolution GOES Satellite Imagery
CIMSS Saharan Air Layer Analysis
METEOSAT Satellite Imagery (Updated every hour)
North Atlantic WV Loop (The Big Picture)
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.