Chantal, 99L, and potential rabbits

By: Levi32 , 4:29 PM GMT on July 31, 2007

Afternoon Update on 99L:

99L is at the very best holding steady, but the circulation now looks very ragged and more like part of the ITCZ than an invest. After looking up the MJO today I saw that there is a huge downward motion pulse in the western Atlantic/Caribbean that is a graveyard for any tropical system right now. Until we move back into an upward motion pulse in 1-2 weeks we shouldn't expect a lot of developments. Unless 99L can pull a miracle during the diurnal max tonight...it's probably dead. Next wave in line probably dead as well as its too far south, and the next one after that just came off Africa and should be watched, although the outcome will probably be the same as the other 20 waves that have come off this season.


Morning Update:
Well TD 3 beat all odds and was upgraded to TS Chantal today with 50mph winds. In reality this is a sub-tropical storm not tropical because on satellite you can clearly see a warm front and a cold front, showing that there is obviously a lot of extratropical influence. Chantal is no threat to anyone except shipping lanes, and should move across the north Atlantic as a strong extratropical low for the next few days.

99L isn't feeling that good, and after attempting a comeback last night during the diurnal max, convection has once again all but completely died this morning due to dry air. The latest QuikScat pass is 7 hours old, but it shows a poorly defined elongated circulation which is still partially embedded in the ITCZ. I don't think we will see anything come from 99L today, as the dry air will continue to choke off any convection that tries to form. However with enough time, if it survives, the system could be a threat to develop once it's in the Caribbean, where the dry air will slack off a little bit. Wind shear remains favorable, although it is forecasted to increase slightly in the central Caribbean.

None of the models are really developing this system, but it is really hard to pick up because of how weak and small it is. Right now I think the only thing 99L really needs is a well-developed surface circulation. If it can get that, then it would probably be able to survive while these intermittent bursts of convection slowly moisten the atmosphere around it. The next QuikScat pass will be interesting to see if 99L was able to do any reorganization overnight. Bottom line, this thing still needs to be watched, and will be around for a long while before it develops.

In the rest of the Atlantic we still may have a few surprises popping out of the hat. Actually they're called rabbits in the Meteorology world, but I won't get into that now. An old but vigorous cold front coming off the SE coast is spawning deep thunderstorms in the NE Gulf of Mexico and off the Carolinas. Both these areas have potential to slowly develop over the next couple days. The area off the Carolinas has the most potential, but will be no threat to land even if something comes out of it. Something else worthy of attention is yet another new wave emerging off the coast of Africa as we speak. Convection is impressive at the moment, but as usually happens will probably die off as it moves over water. What I find interesting though is that this wave is very large, and is the farthest north we have seen a wave come off this year. It is actually at the latitude of the Cape Verde Islands, making it a true Cape Verde wave. The higher latitude position of this wave gives it a huge edge over the waves before it in being able to develop. Only time will tell, but the African wave train will start heating up really soon.

We shall see what happens!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 000
ABNT20 KNHC 311543
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...LOCATED ABOUT 305 MILES SOUTH OF
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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NASA zoomed-in visible loop of 99L

Model tracks for 99L

Model intensity forecasts for 99L


SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

CIMSS Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD tropical formation probability and other maps

CIMSS satellite derived winds and analysis

Atlantic Models

Navy Tropical Cyclone Page

National Hurricane Center


NASA High-resolution GOES Satellite Imagery


CIMSS Saharan Air Layer Analysis

METEOSAT Satellite Imagery (Updated every hour)

North Atlantic WV Loop (The Big Picture)


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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7. Levi32
10:39 PM GMT on August 01, 2007
Hey! You're in my second to most recent blog btw lol. My Mom's surgery couldn't have gone better, thank you for asking. She'll be good as new in a few days :)

Well the tropics are heating up today! My latest blog discusses the main concern, invest 99L. There's also another region in the Gulf of Mexico which may be a threat in a couple days.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
6. AKSnowLuvr
10:27 PM GMT on August 01, 2007
Hi there... how did your mom's surgery go? Hope she's recuperating nicely. :)
Not much action this season, to speak of... is it just getting started?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. Levi32
2:47 PM GMT on August 01, 2007
Good morning {Rays}

TropicalNonsense, are you sure you're in the right blog? This is MY little corner of the world right here lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. TropicalNonsense
1:40 PM GMT on August 01, 2007
Margie You are Doing a Terific Job With the Blogs!
We Like having You at the WU wheel!!

It Reminds me of when i was in school and we would
on occasion get a "Cool" Subsitute Teacher. (LOL)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. TropicalNonsense
1:26 PM GMT on August 01, 2007
000
AXNT20 KNHC 011216
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N55W IS ABOUT 325 NM E OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION HAS APPEARED INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS INTACT. THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EVEN IF DEVELOPMENT
DOES NOT OCCUR...THE LOW WILL LIKELY BRING SQUALLS TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2. Raysfan70
10:09 AM GMT on August 01, 2007
Good Morning {{Levi}}
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1. seflagamma
8:05 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
First!

thanks for the update and info!
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Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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