Major storm setup late this week

By: Levi32 , 6:16 PM GMT on November 11, 2007

A severe and potentially life-threatening weather event is shaping up this week for southern and southeastern Alaska. The trough which brought us 8 inches of snow yesterday will move out and be replaced by a weak ridge today, followed by a shortwave tomorrow. Under this shortwave a weak low will cross the Bering Sea from the west spreading light snow over western and southern Alaska Tuesday and Wednesday. This low will be dragging a lot of cold Siberian air with it, and the polar jet will dip quite far south as the low moves east.

What is now TD 22w in the west Pacific will be nosing into our vicinity in 3-4 days, converting to extra-tropical as it goes. This system, having originated from the tropics, will have a strong sub-tropical connection as it moves north. This mass of warm air will collide with the cold Siberian air in the Bering Sea, causing explosive cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Alaska. Here's what this morning's NWS discussion had to say:

"Long term forecast...
the Bering Sea low will continue to move southeast setting up what
looks like a major Gulf storm later in the week. The upper low will
pull cold air off of Siberia in the polar jet. This will consolidate
with the subtropical jet...which currently has a strong tropical
connection. Indeed...what is at least a tropical storm (possibly a
typhoon...I have not had time to explore this more fully) will go
extra-tropical and move into the Gulf of Alaska and undergo
explosive cyclogenesis as it inhales the siberian air. Many ensemble
members show a surface low in the 940s by 18z Thursday...and the 00z
run of the GFS drops the surface low to 937 mb. With this sort of
strength and development hurricane force winds would be likely.
Exact timing and location are still in question of course...but a
major event is shaping up for later in the week somewhere in the
Gulf.

Ludwig Nov 07"

As Ludwig said the models are jumping all over the intensity and size of this system. A large radius of 80+ knot winds on the back side of this monster is likely. As far as track goes, the GFS keeps the low just far enough south in the gulf to spare the coast a major snow dump, and splits a piece of the energy in the form of a secondary low to the southeast. The southeast panhandle will get the full brunt of the storm with this scenario. The ECMWF, CMC, and Japanese models move the low further north, increasing snow chances. The ECMWF really wraps this up, pulling the secondary low right up into Prince William Sound, which is the classic position for a major snow event over Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula. Within the next few days the position and track should be narrowed down, but regardless of where the snow gets dumped, the wind radius of this will be massive, and everyone is going to feel it. Bottom line is we're looking at possibly one of the biggest storms we will see this winter, and conditions could become life-threatening in some areas during the course of the storm.

We shall see what happens!



This image taken this morning shows TD 22w being caught up by an extratropical low on its way east. This storm will eventually end up in the Gulf of Alaska as our big cheese later this week. (image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency)

Current Satellite:


Surface Map:



The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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15. Levi32
5:55 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Sullivan, thank you. Yes it looks like the energy will be making it into the lower 48 eventually. This low is the big trough that's changing the hemispheric pattern to a 4-wave stable pattern.

Shore - Thanks for clarifying! LOL that's funny. Puns are always fun :)

David, this particular low will fizzle before affecting much of the lower 48, but the trough itself will be generating lots of energy and new lows as it makes it's way east over the continent.

As far as snow goes, it depends on track. Some of the latest model runs are keeping this further south over water, but just like with hurricanes those runs can hop back and forth every day. This definitely has the potential to be "the big one", if things play out perfectly.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
14. Tazmanian
5:13 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
. Levi32 how march snow do you think you will get with this storm if it dos not start out has rain 1st do you think you will see 5ft or more of snow fall from this storm and 100mph winds???
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13. Tazmanian
5:08 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
oh thanks for the cames
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12. Tazmanian
5:07 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Levi32 do you think ca will be hit hard by this 937mb low?? where do you think this is going ???


do you think evere one is going to see a little wind with this like from WA OG and CA???
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11. Damon85013
4:08 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Holy cow, Levi... I hope the worst doesn't verify. Gonna keep checking your blog for updates. Thanks!!
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10. shoreacres
1:45 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Hey, Levi ~ I just learned about two weeks ago what "avatar" means - it's that little pic next to your post: Leaf-i Levi. I THINK an avatar is really supposed to be an animated something, or a non-human pic, or whatever, but folks seem to be using the word to refer to whatever shows up in the little box. But what do I know? I'm probably the least geeky person on this blog!

And, yes: pun-ny, as in "pun". Not puny, as in little! LOL! I had a grandfather who was a great pun-ster, and he got me going with it early in life.... it tickles me to see other folks who can make puns. When I did something bad - like throw snowballs at him that actually hit their target - I would scream, "Don't PUNish me!" and he would laugh so hard I'd get away with it!
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9. Levi32
12:56 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Kachemak Bay webcam....mounted near where I live.

Roaming cam (moves from place to place around Homer)

Home site for those two is here.

Other cams in southern Alaska can be found here.



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8. Tazmanian
12:44 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
. Levi32 any web cames up there where you are ???? can you find me some
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7. sullivanweather
12:41 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Good afternoon Levi32,

That's quite a storm heading up your way.

Models have been trending towards a stronger clipper storm here in the Northeast US next weekend whose energy can be traced to the Gulf of Alaska low at day 4.

One thing's for sure... It's going to change some patterns across North America next week.

Great blog, by the way.
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6. Levi32
12:28 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Hey Shore! Ok I'm stuck on what you mean by "avatar" and whether "punny" means tiny or "pun"ny lol. I need a vocab lesson! Thanks we'll stay plenty warm and snug. I just can't wait for the snow =)

Barefoot - I'll keep updating. You know how I love big storms :) Thanks for stopping by.
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5. Barefootontherocks
10:56 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Thanks Levi, for posting about this potential storm. Will have to keep an eye on this. Please keep us posted, OK?
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4. shoreacres
10:50 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Levi! How nice to see you posting - and what a clear, understandable post. Not only that, your avatar is an absolute hoot! Dare I say it? It's really, REALLY punny!

Throw on an extra pair of socks if that system develops into a tough one!
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3. Levi32
10:15 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Lol LWF :)

WSB - So far only 18 degrees here in Homer. We'll get colder in the coming months. By the way, the first model image on your current blog entry shows the monster in our neighborhood at that time. Just look at the top left corner.
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2. Winterstormsblog
8:05 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Homer, AK!!
how cold has it got this fall?
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1. LakeWorthFinn
6:44 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Stay safe m'friend!
Foist, woohooo lol
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About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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