Messy week ahead

By: Levi32 , 3:31 PM GMT on November 13, 2007

The model consensus has shifted much further south and east with the gulf low on Thursday and Friday. The feeling now is that this is a southeast panhandle problem, and won't be affecting south-central too much. However, we are far from out of the woods snow-wise this week. The system in the Bering Sea is preparing to move ashore in Bristol Bay, and is a highly convective low, meaning that it's fueled entirely on arctic air. Lows like this can produce copious amounts of snow if they sit in the same area. You can see it as a big popcorn-like structure in the center of the satellite image at the bottom of the blog entry. If you can see the land border well enough you'll see that it is almost ashore in Bristol Bay. Precipitation started making it north east of the Alaska range last night, but so far only a dusting has fallen at my house and not much more anywhere else. Later today the main convective zone will move over and we will get our dose of white. SW Alaska is getting dumped on right now, with some coastal areas changing over to rain. This will continue to be the case through tomorrow. This low will slowly drift east and end up in the western gulf by Friday. At this time former TS Tapah, the big storm, will be moving through the extreme SE gulf. One thing this storm will still be able to do is throw subtropical energy north into the Bering Sea low, further aiding precipitation and extending the life of the low by keeping a strong temperature gradient.

A new pattern is shaping up over the Pacific, and this trough will be sitting in our area for some time after this week is over. The models are very unreliable past day 5 in this type of pattern, so there is much to be worked out. For the rest of this week southern Alaska will see lots of snow flakes falling as the trough lurks around. Today I expect anywhere from 4-8 inches of snow in most places, with the exception of Anchorage and the Mat-su until they can overcome the rain shadow tomorrow. Areas of the north gulf coast such as Valdez could get some significant totals if it doesn't change over to rain. By Friday and Saturday the monster low in the SE gulf will make its closest approach to us as it drifts northwest and weakens. It will get close enough to deliver some pretty brisk winds, and will probably add to the moister and precipitation one way or another. Beyond this weekend the models are askew, and we'll just have to see what happens!







^Click for Loop^


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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15. Levi32
7:39 PM GMT on November 13, 2007
Well...the key phrase in the NWS forecast was "south of Ninilchik" lol. I think you'll definitely get some, but not as much as me :P

One thing in your favor though is that you'll stay below 32 degrees, while down here we're testing the freezing mark right now. It'll all depend on how this particular system reacts to the Kenai Mountains. Each system reacts differently.
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14. mrtexas
7:27 PM GMT on November 13, 2007
Levi, how much do you think we will see here up in Kenai? looks partly cloudy!
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13. Levi32
7:10 PM GMT on November 13, 2007
The snow has begun! Temp shot up to 33 though so we'll see about how melty it gets. Should cool down as the low passes to the east.
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12. Levi32
5:42 PM GMT on November 13, 2007
Here's my post from yesterday with links to webcams in the area. Some of those views might get pretty nasty :)

Levi32 3:56 PM AKST on November 11, 2007
Kachemak Bay webcam....mounted near where I live.

Roaming cam (moves from place to place around Homer)

Home site for those two is here.

Other cams in southern Alaska can be found here.



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11. Levi32
5:36 PM GMT on November 13, 2007
First strong band of showers/thunderstorms about to come ashore. The first cells are already visible on the south edge of the radar (Kenai Peninsula).

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10. Levi32
5:08 PM GMT on November 13, 2007
Thank you tornado =)

Have a great day!
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9. tornadofan
4:46 PM GMT on November 13, 2007
Hi Levi,

As a parent of two home-schoolers, I have to say you are a shining example of one. Keep up the good work. Your blogs are excellent both in material and in the way they are written.
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8. Levi32
4:03 PM GMT on November 13, 2007
Thanks! And yup I love dumps =)

Have a great day.
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7. HeavySnow
4:01 PM GMT on November 13, 2007
Very nice! Enjoy the week. I hope you get buried by the snow(if that's cool with you).
I'm off to a job now!
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6. Levi32
3:57 PM GMT on November 13, 2007
I hope so too, for your sake lol.

I'm homeschooled, and we have this week off :)
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5. HeavySnow
3:55 PM GMT on November 13, 2007
Some winters, it never ripens fully. I cry all winter long when that happens. But not this winter! I hope.
Great info Levi. Keep it coming. It's fun to live vicariously through others with snow.
Have a great day. Do you have school today?
I'm at work.
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4. Levi32
3:52 PM GMT on November 13, 2007
Wish I could do that for you lol. You'll get your chance :) It takes a while for things to get ripe down there.
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3. HeavySnow
3:51 PM GMT on November 13, 2007
4-8 sounds great. Now how do I bring Alaska to Virginia?
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2. Levi32
3:41 PM GMT on November 13, 2007
David CA won't be affected by the gulf storm. Your pattern is pretty dry as it is. Even Washington will only get the tail end of the cold front.
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1. Tazmanian
3:40 PM GMT on November 13, 2007
this big storm is not going to ca is it??? what do you think ca will feel from this storm???
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About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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