Another snow hopeful about to pounce

By: Levi32 , 2:52 AM GMT on December 09, 2007

**Update Monday morning:**

The low is moving ashore on the southern Kenai Peninsula, and the mountains haven't stopped any of the moisture from making it over to the Homer area and Sterling Highway. At sea level temps are 35-38 with rain. Higher elevations, such as my house, currently at 32.1 degrees, are seeing wet snow accumulating up to 3 inches already. Right now is the warmest part of the storm, so the areas seeing snow right now could see nothing but snow for the rest of the day, possibly accumulating quite nicely by tomorrow morning. At sea level rain will continue, mixing with snow by late this afternoon. Overnight tonight cold air will filter in from the west changing most precip to snow before the storm is completely gone. I don't expect more than 2 inches of snow at sea level before the storm moves out. All-around a nice little nasty storm with a mix of precip and 35mph winds to toss it around. I'll keep you posted as the storm unfolds. Previous entry is below, as the pattern reasoning still applies:

Post from Saturday:
Well no matter how many supposed snowstorms come in lately, every one turns to rain by only 1 or 2 degrees above freezing. Very annoying lol. The pattern reversal has turned into not a reversal, but just a different way of expressing a warm pattern. The opportunities for arctic air intrusion have increased dramatically with this pattern, but there's still enough warm air in the mix to shake off most snowstorms, at least for the moment. Here's another repeat, but with more hope. Come Monday a brand new storm system churning with life is going to make a pass between Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula, coming from the SE. Now in the dead of winter this is a boom boom snow scenario, but lately there have been doubts about even the most obvious snow setups. The current system is moving out, and rain is changing to snow at the last minute as cold air rushes in behind the occluded front. During the next two days a new storm will develop in the eastern Pacific and head NNW. This system has lively jet support, and will strengthen quickly. Some models are bringing this down to 969mb right as it passes north of Kodiak Island. Up until this point the storm will be carrying a nice warm tongue with it, but this will slip east as soon as the center reaches Kodiak Island. This gives the arctic air tentatively sitting to the north and west an opportunity to bust some but and keep the temps below freezing for most of south central. This is by far our best hope out of the last 5 or so systems. Regardless of whether this storm brings rain or snow, it will be the strongest we've seen in this position in a long time, and the only one that has strengthened upon landfall this winter. The exact track will determine what areas will get the most snow, and that should be ironed out more in tomorrow's model runs. I'll keep you posted.

We shall see what happens!










^Click for loop^


Webcam overlooking Homer and Kachemak Bay:


Webcam mounted on Peterson Bay weather station looking across toward Homer:


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 24 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

24. Levi32
5:35 PM GMT on December 18, 2007
LOL, same with some of the so-called Homer stations. 2 of em don't even report right, with a -999mb pressure and always always always -17.8 degrees C. Whatever lol. There are a couple ones that we never had before that provide nice info. I would be part of that network myself if it wasn't for the stupid boss that replaced the one that hired me as an observer a couple years back and I got taken off for some reason lol. Oh well.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
23. AKSnowLuvr
5:33 PM GMT on December 18, 2007
I noticed that, too, Grizz... thing is, the locations that they're calling 'Sterling' aren't anywhere CLOSE to where we are. Go figure.
I hope we all have a white christmas...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
22. AKGrizzly
7:38 AM GMT on December 18, 2007
I wish I knew where that 6 Inches fell. We were lucky to see 1/2 inch here in Chugiak.

Anybody else notice a bunch of NEW weather sites pop up? A New Weather project that just ate up all of my area, Wasilla, Palmer and Alaska everywhere. Here is a link to the project and I wish they would have said something to us so we didn't get shocked by the massive new sites that cover all of our areas. http://madis.noaa.gov/ (MADIS Project) It never fails, the Govt always has to spoil a good thing... Dead Sites with no one to post to us about the project. I sent an email to the person in charge of the program and they didn't even show me the courtesy to answer back. Sheesh waht a world.

- Grizz on Bear Mountain in Chugiak
http://www.kakchugi3.com
Check out my website sometime.... Flash Plus!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
21. Levi32
5:17 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Good for them up there! We got 1 inch of light fluffy stuff before the band moved on. Oh well, more soon.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
20. Lank
3:16 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Hi Levi! Just saw that Anchorage got 6 inches today (12th), a record for the day there. What did you get in Homer?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
19. LitlPrincess
9:56 PM GMT on December 11, 2007
Aaahh SNOW, finally!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
18. Levi32
6:09 PM GMT on December 11, 2007
Lol, it's nasty with all the slush. My temp just went down to 31 and falling with the arctic air rushing in, and it's snowing moderately on the southern Peninsula now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
17. AKSnowLuvr
6:04 PM GMT on December 11, 2007
What's with the wonky patterns this morning? I'm sure glad I don't have to go out on the roads today!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
16. Levi32
4:05 AM GMT on December 11, 2007
As it slides east we'll get showers on the back side, nothing heavy but a couple inches of snow are likely. Next system is going to be weak but we'll see how much moisture comes with it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
15. mrtexas
12:42 AM GMT on December 11, 2007
Levi, when is the precip going to start again? I think the storm is going to miss us. the NWS says its making a right turn, its never gonna snow. Whats this next system going to do?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
14. AKSnowLuvr
9:21 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
It's been snowing like crazy for the last few hours here! yippee!! I hope it doesn't turn to rain. It's still hovering at 32.7°F here. Baro is 976... :D
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
13. Levi32
8:42 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Homer is about to come into the clear just to the southeast of the low center. We might have some sunny breaks in the clouds before the low kicks east and we'll plunge into the western side of the storm, where we'll get most of the snow. Right now temperature is topping out at 34 degrees, and the snow is starting to melt, but this is the warmest part of the system. I expect more snow this evening on the back side of the low.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
12. Levi32
8:08 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Across the globe hurricane season ain't over yet lol.



Click to enlarge
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
11. Levi32
7:20 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
GE view of Homer showing radar on the ground and clouds in the sky(bad resolution but it looks cool :)



Click for full-size.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
10. Levi32
7:06 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Mrtexas - Good point yes this system has followed the NAM, which was previously disregarded by the NWS. The storm will be bottoming out soon pressure-wise probably near 970mb. Right now is the warmest temps and strongest winds we will see. I can see this getting into the NW sound but it won't stay for long as it will get kicked out by the next system coming in from the Aleutians. The NWS is probably playing it safe for now, but I can see some decent snowfall in the Anchorage area if the storm tracks close to the coast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
9. mrtexas
7:01 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
levi, the NWS favors the GFS over the NAM, but the system has shown the track of the NAM. When will the system push through at its strongest and is there any potential for the storm to move into northwest prince william sound where the western kenai and anchoraage will get some snow? I wonder if the NWS really doesnt have an ida with this one and they are being cautious?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
8. Levi32
6:42 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
You can already see how wet the Peterson Bay cam is. The moisture isn't being stopped by the mountains this time. According to the models the warmest part of the storm is NOW, meaning that it can't really get any warmer than it is! All downhill from here hopefully :) As daytime progresses the Bay cam should show the snow that is falling in front of it right now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
7. Levi32
6:32 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
I'm hoping! Still steady 32.1 and nasty wet snow and 30mph winds. We just might get some accumulation if this keeps up :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
6. AKSnowLuvr
6:28 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
32.9°F (and falling)here in Sterling, and snowing... :D
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. Levi32
5:38 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Storm has hit. 38 degrees in town with rain, 32.1 degrees at my house on the ridge with wet snow falling. Will be mix rain/snow all day until tonight when the low kicks east and cold air comes behind to change the last of the precip to snow at the end.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. Levi32
6:50 AM GMT on December 10, 2007
Oh we'll have one don't worry :)

Latest data looking like this will be rain for about 24 hours but beyond that arctic air rolls in turning it all to snow for about 12 hours and we could get a few inches if it tucks in nicely. Beyond that the pattern shifts one more time which will keep us cold and slowly accumulating snow up until Christmas time :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. AKSnowLuvr
4:31 AM GMT on December 10, 2007
Oh, don't tease me! I'm wishing really hard for a White Christmas. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2. Levi32
3:51 AM GMT on December 10, 2007
And maybe not :(

Looks like there's too much warm air again. If there's snow it will be at the very end right before the precip ends. I promise you a white Christmas though! lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. AKSnowLuvr
9:50 PM GMT on December 09, 2007
Holding my breath... maybe???

:)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 24 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

Recommended Links