Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.
By: Levi32 , 2:52 AM GMT on December 09, 2007
**Update Monday morning:**
The low is moving ashore on the southern Kenai Peninsula, and the mountains haven't stopped any of the moisture from making it over to the Homer area and Sterling Highway. At sea level temps are 35-38 with rain. Higher elevations, such as my house, currently at 32.1 degrees, are seeing wet snow accumulating up to 3 inches already. Right now is the warmest part of the storm, so the areas seeing snow right now could see nothing but snow for the rest of the day, possibly accumulating quite nicely by tomorrow morning. At sea level rain will continue, mixing with snow by late this afternoon. Overnight tonight cold air will filter in from the west changing most precip to snow before the storm is completely gone. I don't expect more than 2 inches of snow at sea level before the storm moves out. All-around a nice little nasty storm with a mix of precip and 35mph winds to toss it around. I'll keep you posted as the storm unfolds. Previous entry is below, as the pattern reasoning still applies:
Post from Saturday:
Well no matter how many supposed snowstorms come in lately, every one turns to rain by only 1 or 2 degrees above freezing. Very annoying lol. The pattern reversal has turned into not a reversal, but just a different way of expressing a warm pattern. The opportunities for arctic air intrusion have increased dramatically with this pattern, but there's still enough warm air in the mix to shake off most snowstorms, at least for the moment. Here's another repeat, but with more hope. Come Monday a brand new storm system churning with life is going to make a pass between Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula, coming from the SE. Now in the dead of winter this is a boom boom snow scenario, but lately there have been doubts about even the most obvious snow setups. The current system is moving out, and rain is changing to snow at the last minute as cold air rushes in behind the occluded front. During the next two days a new storm will develop in the eastern Pacific and head NNW. This system has lively jet support, and will strengthen quickly. Some models are bringing this down to 969mb right as it passes north of Kodiak Island. Up until this point the storm will be carrying a nice warm tongue with it, but this will slip east as soon as the center reaches Kodiak Island. This gives the arctic air tentatively sitting to the north and west an opportunity to bust some but and keep the temps below freezing for most of south central. This is by far our best hope out of the last 5 or so systems. Regardless of whether this storm brings rain or snow, it will be the strongest we've seen in this position in a long time, and the only one that has strengthened upon landfall this winter. The exact track will determine what areas will get the most snow, and that should be ironed out more in tomorrow's model runs. I'll keep you posted.
We shall see what happens!
^Click for loop^
Webcam overlooking Homer and Kachemak Bay:
Webcam mounted on Peterson Bay weather station looking across toward Homer:
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