Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.
By: Levi32 , 7:07 PM GMT on December 20, 2007
After a week of poor handling by the models, we were all a little surprised at this next low coming north into the Gulf of Alaska. This low is already in the middle of the satellite image you can see below, and the cirrus shield is extending over southern Alaska. This low will be running into an exceptionally cold dome of air that has been sitting over most of Alaska for a week now. Temperatures in the interior have been pushing -50 the last few mornings, and Fairbanks is currently at -44. This clash of cold and warm will cause significant snowfall on the coastal areas, with some rain-shadow affect inland, limiting totals there. This low is a triple-point spawned by the parent low north of the Aleutians. The parent is already causing convergence between warm and cold air over Bristol Bay and the Kenai Peninsula, causing flurries and light snow. Even as the cirrus shield comes over from the triple-point, it is already snowing at my house lightly, and it's still only 7 degrees. This tells me that the dynamics are very much in place for this battle of warm and cold air to produce significant snow. The NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch from 4pm local time this afternoon through tomorrow, and will likely get upgraded to a warning within a few hours. They are currently calling for a storm total of up to 20 inches, highest amounts along the Homer Bluff(where I live), and in Seldovia, across the bay from me. Our wishes of a white Christmas may finally be coming true! Inland areas of the Kenai Peninsula will not see as much snow due to downsloping, but most areas will still get advisory-level amounts when it's all said and done. That's it! Hope for the best, I know we all want snow. Good luck to all! Enjoy the storm :) I'll update again later.
We shall see what happens!
1036 AM AST THU DEC 20 2007
...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 12 PM
AST FRIDAY FOR ALONG KACHEMAK BAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HEAVY SNOW
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 12 PM
AST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG COOK INLET AND
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
KACHEMAK BAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG KACHEMAK BAY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR SELDOVIA AND THE HOMER
A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF
YOU MUST...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
Current NWS Forecast:
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
945 AM AST THU DEC 20 2007
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AROUND KACHEMAK BAY...
.TODAY...SNOW SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THIS MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER KACHEMAK BAY.
HIGHS ZERO TO TO 10 ABOVE EXCEPT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH OF
CLAM GULCH. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...SNOW SOUTH OF CLAM GULCH...HEAVY AT TIMES. POSSIBLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION UP TO 12 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS AROUND KACHEMAK BAY.
ELSEWHERE...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES
ZERO TO 10 ABOVE EXCEPT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH OF CLAM
GULCH. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.
.FRIDAY...SNOW SOUTH OF CLAM GULCH DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 8 INCHES...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS AROUND KACHEMAK BAY. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS EXCEPT IN THE 20S SOUTH OF
CLAM GULCH. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT.
^Click for loop^
Webcam overlooking Homer and Kachemak Bay:
Webcam mounted on Peterson Bay weather station looking across toward Homer:
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