Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.
By: Levi32 , 3:23 PM GMT on June 07, 2009
There is nothing particularly exciting on the weather map this morning. A tropical wave along 63w moving through the Windward Islands is bringing scattered showers to the NE coast of South America and the southern windwards.
A weak and broad trough of low pressure associated with a mid-level circulation in the SW Caribbean is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms extending from Panama to Jamaica, being enhanced by upper divergence on the eastern flank of a mid-upper trough extending from Florida down to the north coast of Honduras. This trough is also creating 20 knots of shear over the extreme southern Caribbean, with upwards of 30 knots just to the north covering the entire area. This trough will continue to impose this shear on the western Caribbean for the next 5-7 days before lifting out as the upper high in the east Pacific noses into the Gulf of Mexico.
A pattern pulse of tropical activity is on the way for the next 5-15 days. The MJO upward motion region has arrived in the western Caribbean, and as mentioned above, the TUTT over the area will start to lift in 5-7 days, relaxing the shear and providing favorable conditions for tropical development. The area of low pressure in the SW Caribbean is forecast by the GFS to be a trigger for a TD to form in 5 days, and the tropical wave at 63W which will be in the western Caribbean by that time may be a factor as well. The European model is predicting a TD to form 6 days. The rest of the models show lowering pressures in the western Caribbean but no lows.
The point is the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico are going to become favorable for tropical development during the next 5-15 days, and at the very least, tropical moisture advecting northward in 6-10 days may threaten Florida with more rain. The area will be continue to be monitored.
We shall see what happens!
West Atlantic Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)
unique people have been here =)
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