Rain for the Caribbean, possible low development late this week

By: Levi32 , 4:14 PM GMT on June 09, 2009

Tropical Tidbit from 12:00pm EDT June 9, 2009:
An upper trough still positioned over the western Caribbean is producing showers and thunderstorms in the divergent flow on its eastern side. Eastern central America, Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas are all getting rain from the deep-layer moisture surge being brought northward by the upper trough. This will continue for the next 3 days as the upper trough lingers in the area. By Friday this upper trough will start to pull out of the Caribbean, but will leave behind a cut-off upper low. This low will drift southwest over Central America and allow an upper high to build into the Caribbean.

As this happens, a tropical wave currently south of Haiti along 74W will be interacting with the cut-off upper low. This will cause more showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean, and possibly form a surface low, as depicted by the GFS, NAM, ECMWF, and the NHC forecast. At this time it is unclear whether the low would have a good chance at becoming a tropical cyclone. The environment will be steadily improving from 72 hours onward with an upper high building in to ventilate the area and provide low wind shear. Right now it's best to wait until we actually have a low , and then we can make a proper assessment of the development potential.

I would like to once again point out that we are entering an activity pulse during the next 5-15 days, which I have explained in previous blog entries. This may not be the only disturbance we will track during that time, and the western Caribbean/southern Gulf of Mexico will have to be watched for trouble. For now all of this just means a lot of rain for people in the Caribbean.

We shall see what happens!



Figure 1. Notice the consolidated area of convection in the eastern Pacific around 100W. That's symbolizing the MJO pulse moving over, and now we notice that convection is becoming a little more consolidated in the SW Caribbean, and we may get a more organized Panamanian Low that can drift north and interact with the tropical wave coming in from the east. This area won't be able to develop for 3-5 days but it should be watched to see if it wants to be a trouble-maker.

West Caribbean Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)



Forecasted Precipitation during the next 72 hours:






different people have been here =) Thanks for stopping by!


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 36 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

36. AKSnowLuvr
4:54 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Good morning, Levi... anything interesting on the radar this morning? :) Besides BE-YOO-tiful spring weather here? :D
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
35. Levi32
5:46 AM GMT on June 10, 2009
Alright, probably would seem weird after a while anyway lol. Interesting software you got there though.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
34. jphurricane2006
5:38 AM GMT on June 10, 2009
I am going to post the rest of the advisories in my blog Levi
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
33. jphurricane2006
2:59 AM GMT on June 10, 2009
11pm EDT SIM advisory for TS Annika

As of 11pm EDT, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coastline of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cancun south to Chetemal. Also as of 11pm EDT the government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coastline north of Belize City. A Tropical Storm Watch means Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the next 36 hours.

At 11pm, the center of TS Annika was located near 19.5N 83.7W or about 225 miles ESE of Cozumel, Mexico.

Annika is moving toward the NW at 6mph, this slow movement is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60mph with higher gusts. Annika is a moderate TS and is expected to maintain this intensity or weaken slightly over the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center, mainly to the north and east.

Minimum centeral pressure is 996mb...29.41 inches

An intermediate advisory wlll be issued at 2am EDT, followed by the next full advisory at 5am EDT.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
32. Levi32
12:15 AM GMT on June 10, 2009
Quoting jphurricane2006:
Hey Levi not sure if you had heard, but based on re-analysis in April of this year a Hurricane that hit Cuba in 1924 has now been officially classified the earliest official Cat 5 on record, replacing the Lake O storm of 1928

Just thought you'd like to know


Oh really? That's a big upgrade from Cat 3. Hm interesting thanks for sharing that.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
31. Levi32
12:12 AM GMT on June 10, 2009
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Hi Levi,
Great to see you're blogging again. Keep up the good work!

Maybe another couple three weeks before we see anything truly tropical stormish?


Hey barefoot great to see you! And thanks. Yeah we'll probably see a couple disturbances try to spin up before June is over, but there's no guarantee that we'll get a named storm.



Quoting GetReal:
Hello Levi... Seems like your above synopsis is your classic pattern reversal... There is always a chance of tropical develpoment when this occurs over the NW Caribbean.

Once again Levi I was totally impressed with Alaska, and the people there.


Oh GR I'm sorry I totally forgot about replying to your message. I'm really glad you guys had a good time. Alaska can be very nice in the Summer if the weather cooperates.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
30. GetReal
11:43 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Hello Levi... Seems like your above synopsis is your classic pattern reversal... There is always a chance of tropical develpoment when this occurs over the NW Caribbean.

Once again Levi I was totally impressed with Alaska, and the people there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
29. Barefootontherocks
11:22 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Hi Levi,
Great to see you're blogging again. Keep up the good work!

Maybe another couple three weeks before we see anything truly tropical stormish?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
28. jphurricane2006
11:18 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Hey Levi not sure if you had heard, but based on re-analysis in April of this year a Hurricane that hit Cuba in 1924 has now been officially classified the earliest official Cat 5 on record, replacing the Lake O storm of 1928

Just thought you'd like to know
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
27. Levi32
10:09 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Quoting jphurricane2006:
Hey Levi I saw you updated your blog within the last few minutes, but I cannot tell what you added lol



Lol I finally figured out how to down-size the font since it got updated and was too huge for my taste. That's the update....nothing really new to add since this morning outside of mesoscale changes with the Caribbean "blob". Those get covered pretty good in the main blog anyways lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
26. shoreacres
10:08 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Oh, thanks! That would make sense. Believe I'll trot the photo over to beell and see what he says, too. I'm just happy to have gotten the pic.

Now, back to read YOUR blog!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
24. jphurricane2006
10:05 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Hey Levi I saw you updated your blog within the last few minutes, but I cannot tell what you added lol

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
23. Levi32
10:05 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Quoting shoreacres:
Hmmm... I've never messed around in the photo section - when I clicked the link it sent me to my photos, but I guess... well, who knows.

Anyhow: yes, that is the photo. I assume it's cirrus, but I've never seen the ring formation like that. It really was like a doughnut, with clear skies all around the outside. I just couldn't get the whole sky in ;-)

I didn't notice it early enough to see how it formed, but it pretty much stayed like that until it got dark. Unusual.


That's pretty cool. It's probably not something that has a name....we could call it an ice donut since cirrus are made of ice crystals lol.

Not sure how it formed, either it happened randomly or there was a small localized pocket of upper-level dry air/subsidence.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
22. shoreacres
10:00 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Hmmm... I've never messed around in the photo section - when I clicked the link it sent me to my photos, but I guess... well, who knows.

Anyhow: yes, that is the photo. I assume it's cirrus, but I've never seen the ring formation like that. It really was like a doughnut, with clear skies all around the outside. I just couldn't get the whole sky in ;-)

I didn't notice it early enough to see how it formed, but it pretty much stayed like that until it got dark. Unusual.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
21. Levi32
9:36 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Shore, do you mean this? It was in your blog's recent photos. And do you mean the cloud-type itself or the formation?

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
20. Levi32
9:35 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Quoting jphurricane2006:
Is the image good or do I need to adjust the size?

Also let me know how the format of the advisory is


It's a bit large and takes a while to load, but the display size gets automatically shrunk to the width of the blog.

The advisory format is fine.....I mean you could add all sorts of things like wind radii and mentions of recon findings, but it's up to you.

Quoting shoreacres:
Hi, Levi,

Got a question for you. I uploaded a photo of an unusual cloud formation last night. Do you happen to know what this is called? I've done some looking but haven't found it yet.


Same for me shore sent me to the WunderPhotos section.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
19. jphurricane2006
9:07 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
shoreacres I clicked that link and it sent me to my photos that I have uploaded
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
18. shoreacres
9:06 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Hi, Levi,

Got a question for you. I uploaded a photo of an unusual cloud formation last night. Do you happen to know what this is called? I've done some looking but haven't found it yet.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
17. jphurricane2006
9:03 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Is the image good or do I need to adjust the size?

Also let me know how the format of the advisory is
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
16. jphurricane2006
9:00 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
5pm EDT SIM advisory for TS Annika (corrected to add possible watches)

Annika weakens slightly....

At 5pm, the center of TS Annika was located near 19.1N 83.4W or about 140 miles West of Grand Cayman. Due to the storms slow movement and forecasted track, watches will likely be posted for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize tonight.

Annika is moving toward the NNW at 5mph, this slow movement is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 60mph with higher gusts. Annika is a moderate TS and is expected to maintain this intensity or weaken slightly over the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center

Minimum centeral pressure is 996mb...29.41 inches

The next advisory will be issued at 11pm EDT


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
15. Levi32
8:53 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Upload it to imageshack or that new tinypic thing everyone uses. I haven't checked that one out yet.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
14. jphurricane2006
8:50 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
ugh I forgot I have to wait for them to approve the image

Is there another way to do this?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
13. jphurricane2006
8:31 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
5pm SIM advisory will come out soon, I will create the map and post it with the SIM advisory lol

We will see how it turns out lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
12. Levi32
8:29 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Sounds cool JP.

I believe any image type can be displayed with the html code.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
11. jphurricane2006
8:19 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
oh do bitmap images post on here?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
10. jphurricane2006
8:18 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
actually no Levi lol, just kinda happened, note that Sim storm Annika has been around since June 6th

I usually follow climatology when I do my systems

What I think I will do that will be cool, is create a screenshot, which is easy to do with the software I have, and post it here LOL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
9. Levi32
6:36 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Quoting jphurricane2006:
In this time of slow activity I usually use my hurricane tracking software to create my own storms, I use the year after the current one so not to get them confused with the real storms (So in this case, 2010), the name patterns is the same (female name first)

First named storm for my Sim 2010 season is Annika, I could post further updates if you would like LOL


Here is the 11am SIM Advisory #12 for TS Annika:

The center of Tropical Storm Annika is located near latitude 18.7N longitude 83.3W or 140 miles WSW of Grand Cayman Island.

Annika is drifting to the north near 4mph and this slow motion is expected to continue for the near future.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65mph with higher gusts. Annika is expected to stay a strong tropical storm before slowly weakening.

Minimum Central Pressure is 993mb

The next advisory will be issued at 5pm





LOL....that's squarely in the middle of of the NW Caribbean....do I sense a sub-conscious forecast from you for a system to develop there later this week? ;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
8. jphurricane2006
6:23 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Names for the 2010 Sim season:

Annika
Bret
Celia
Daniel
Erin
Ferdinand
Grace
Henri
Isabella
James
Kathleen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nicholas
Odette
Paul
Rachel
Sean
Teresa
Victor
Winnie
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
7. jphurricane2006
6:22 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
In this time of slow activity I usually use my hurricane tracking software to create my own storms, I use the year after the current one so not to get them confused with the real storms (So in this case, 2010), the name patterns is the same (female name first)

First named storm for my Sim 2010 season is Annika, I could post further updates if you would like LOL


Here is the 11am SIM Advisory #12 for TS Annika:

The center of Tropical Storm Annika is located near latitude 18.7N longitude 83.3W or 140 miles WSW of Grand Cayman Island.

Annika is drifting to the north near 4mph and this slow motion is expected to continue for the near future.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65mph with higher gusts. Annika is expected to stay a strong tropical storm before slowly weakening.

Minimum Central Pressure is 993mb

The next advisory will be issued at 5pm



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
6. Levi32
4:41 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Trouble is a brewing in the Carib coming up, isn't it, Levi? Awesome update, by the way. :)


"Possibly"....LOL. I do think we'll see some messes down there during the next couple weeks. The potential for trouble will be there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. Levi32
4:34 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Quoting jphurricane2006:
I think it is still a bit too early to claim what will or will not happen in the Caribbean

Wait I can use my favorite line from Apollo 13 here LOL

"We need to have 1,000 things to happen in order and we are on #7, you are talking about #692."


Lol...ya that's why we love to use words like "possibly" and "wait and see".
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. jphurricane2006
4:32 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
I think it is still a bit too early to claim what will or will not happen in the Caribbean

Wait I can use my favorite line from Apollo 13 here LOL

"We need to have 1,000 things to happen in order and we are on #7, you are talking about #692."
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2. Levi32
4:23 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Quoting scottsvb:
True the mid and upper levels will be good..but alot of drier air will be in place.. I really dont see anything in the 5-10 period..maybe in a couple weeks though if something can get up to 11N entering the carribean from the Atlantic.

The ridging and dry air over the GOM will hamper and sign development with the current broad low in the carribean that may develop in a day or 2. It should also block any real north movement near 20N.. I still say florida has only a 10% chance of getting anything..but things can change!


I agree with you there....the GOM comes into play later this month.

It will be a bit dry in the Caribbean when the high builds in but there is another tropical wave currently along 35W that will be bringing a surge of moisture into the Caribbean 6-7 days from now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. scottsvb
4:21 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
True the mid and upper levels will be good..but alot of drier air will be in place.. I really dont see anything in the 5-10 period..maybe in a couple weeks though if something can get up to 11N entering the carribean from the Atlantic.

The ridging and dry air over the GOM will hamper any sign development with the current broad low in the carribean that may develop in a day or 2. It should also block any real north movement near 20N.. I still say florida has only a 10% chance of getting anything..but things can change!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 36 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

Recommended Links