Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.
By: Levi32 , 4:14 PM GMT on June 09, 2009
Tropical Tidbit from 12:00pm EDT June 9, 2009:
An upper trough still positioned over the western Caribbean is producing showers and thunderstorms in the divergent flow on its eastern side. Eastern central America, Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas are all getting rain from the deep-layer moisture surge being brought northward by the upper trough. This will continue for the next 3 days as the upper trough lingers in the area. By Friday this upper trough will start to pull out of the Caribbean, but will leave behind a cut-off upper low. This low will drift southwest over Central America and allow an upper high to build into the Caribbean.
As this happens, a tropical wave currently south of Haiti along 74W will be interacting with the cut-off upper low. This will cause more showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean, and possibly form a surface low, as depicted by the GFS, NAM, ECMWF, and the NHC forecast. At this time it is unclear whether the low would have a good chance at becoming a tropical cyclone. The environment will be steadily improving from 72 hours onward with an upper high building in to ventilate the area and provide low wind shear. Right now it's best to wait until we actually have a low , and then we can make a proper assessment of the development potential.
I would like to once again point out that we are entering an activity pulse during the next 5-15 days, which I have explained in previous blog entries. This may not be the only disturbance we will track during that time, and the western Caribbean/southern Gulf of Mexico will have to be watched for trouble. For now all of this just means a lot of rain for people in the Caribbean.
We shall see what happens!
Figure 1. Notice the consolidated area of convection in the eastern Pacific around 100W. That's symbolizing the MJO pulse moving over, and now we notice that convection is becoming a little more consolidated in the SW Caribbean, and we may get a more organized Panamanian Low that can drift north and interact with the tropical wave coming in from the east. This area won't be able to develop for 3-5 days but it should be watched to see if it wants to be a trouble-maker.
West Caribbean Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)
Forecasted Precipitation during the next 72 hours:
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