Still watching the Caribbean for possible trouble this weekend

By: Levi32 , 4:54 PM GMT on June 10, 2009

Tropical Tidbit from 12:30pm EDT June 10, 2009:
The weather in the Caribbean continues to be dominated by an upper trough extending from east of Florida down to Honduras. Divergence on the east flank of this trough is still sparking showers and thunderstorms over Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas, although not as many as yesterday. A tropical wave along 82W just east of Nicaragua is enhancing thunderstorms over Panama and Columbia associated with a broad area of low pressure.

The GFS, NAM, and NOGAPS are forecasting a closed low to form in the SW Caribbean in the next 2 days within the moisture surge brought by the tropical wave. The upper trough is currently imparting 30+ knots of shear over the entire area, making conditions too hostile to allow any tropical development. However, the GFS and NAM forecast the upper trough to start lifting out by this weekend, getting replaced by a weaker shortwave dropping down from Florida. This shortwave will become a closed upper low and drift SW over Mexico, allowing an area of low shear to develop over the western Caribbean in 3-5 days as an upper ridge noses in.

Most of the models are still too fast in the formation and movement of the forecasted Caribbean low, and I am continuing to lean towards the ECMWF model, which has been very consistent in forming a weak low over the SW Caribbean this weekend and moving it slowly northwest next week. During this time frame the low would be under more favorable conditions, but at this point development is uncertain.

The pattern I've been talking about is almost here, with the MJO coming over and ridging building over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. This may not be the only disturbance we track over the next 15 days, and the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico need to be watched for trouble. A look into the future shows the next tropical wave in the central Atlantic bringing another moisture surge into the Caribbean in 6-8 days. I will continue to monitor the Caribbean for any changes.

We shall see what happens!

Forecasted Total Accumulated Precipitation during the next 72 hours:


Figure 1. GFS forecasted precipitaion. The GFS has QPF problems and the bomb of 10 inches of rain over Jamaica on this map should be ignored. These areas in the western Caribbean will be getting 1-3 inches of rain over the next 3 days, with isolated amounts of up to 6 inches.

West Caribbean Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)






The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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40. Levi32
5:02 AM GMT on June 11, 2009
Gee those were so easy and right under my nose lol.
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39. jphurricane2006
12:48 AM GMT on June 11, 2009
The 5 Hurricanes to be named before hitting 35W and then go on to hit the US are

Donna in 1960
Hugo in 1989
Georges in 1998
Isabel in 2003
Ivan in 2004

Frederic was almost the 6th on this list in 1979, becoming a named storm at 36W
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38. jphurricane2006
12:16 AM GMT on June 11, 2009
The answer is 5

Donna is one of them yes
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37. Levi32
12:10 AM GMT on June 11, 2009
Oh jp I'm horrid at stats lol. I'm thinking Donna here but I can't remember any more at the moment.
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36. jphurricane2006
12:07 AM GMT on June 11, 2009
Levi I got some tropical trivia for you

How many Cape Verde storms have been named east of 35W and made landfall in the United States?
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35. Levi32
12:01 AM GMT on June 11, 2009
Broad area of elevated 850mb vorticity reflects the broadness of the area of low pressure in the southern Caribbean.

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34. jphurricane2006
11:58 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Yea I noticed it Levi
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33. Levi32
11:56 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Ok jp I'll save my energy. It doesn't sound worth it anymore lol.
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32. Levi32
11:55 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Visible imagery going away soon for the night. You can see the low-level turning associated with the area of low pressure centered around 12N 79W.
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31. jphurricane2006
11:53 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
no its ok Levi lmao

I think Sim TS Annika is the remnants of Karen LMAO
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30. Levi32
11:52 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Should I pull an all-nighter jp? LOL
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29. jphurricane2006
11:46 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Levi Sim TS Annika is going to make landfall sometime after midnight lol

just to let you know
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28. upweatherdog
11:19 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
It's 53F here with rain!....as usual.lol
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27. Levi32
10:32 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Hey no fair! 68.1ºF here......but I'm not complaining =)

Yup we're keeping a close eye on things. It's not like there's anything else to do anyway lol.
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26. AKSnowLuvr
10:27 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
74.5°F!!!! Oooh... I bet you guys are watching that disturbance very closely. :)
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25. Levi32
9:46 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Oh yeah JP I didn't even notice the new low on the surface map lol. We officially have a 1009mb low:

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24. jphurricane2006
9:19 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
yea Levi the surface map shows the low now around 12N 80W, and the first thing I thought was shear is lower down there
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23. Levi32
9:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Lol thanks.

We're neck 'n neck....I'm sitting pretty at 67 degrees too and rising! You'll probably beat me though.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

18z NAM shows a well-developed low moving into the NW Caribbean in 3 days. It would seem that the models are starting to come into a much better consensus, but I would wait for a couple more runs to start guaranteeing development.

The disturbance in question is continuing to fire thunderstorms this afternoon as a broad area of low pressure forms in the extreme southern Caribbean. The wind shear south of 15N is pretty much an illusion because it's being caused by the outflow of the thunderstorms associated with the Columbian/Panamanian Low. That's not to say it's not hostile wind shear, but below 15N it's not being caused by the upper trough over the western Caribbean. Its influence now extends only down to about 17N. All this means is that the disturbance is seeing the beginnings of some breathing room develop, and by tonight the wind shear will start to lessen over the southern Caribbean. I'll continue to keep an eye on it.

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22. AKSnowLuvr
7:47 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
LOL! It's so nice to have you back on here. :) I love reading your posts.

Yep... 67°F here already today, and really sunny, breezy... perfect, really. Makes up for the dismally dreary summer we had last year.

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21. Levi32
7:46 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
12z ECMWF continuing to forecast slow development of a low moving NW near the coast of Honduras next week. I think the Euro has had the best handle on this system ever since the models started showing it a week ago.
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20. jphurricane2006
6:51 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
The GOM SSTs will be very warm this season too, in years with very little GOM development like 2006, it isnt the SSTs that prohibit development, its the wind shear
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19. tornadofan
6:50 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Quoting upweatherdog:
One thing to note is below normal SSTs over the Gulf of Mexico. That may limit hurricane development in the northern Gulf.


I think that issue will be resolved, as near coast temps are in the low-mid 90's all week this week under calm winds and sunny skies. Water temps should sky rocket near shore.
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18. upweatherdog
6:49 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Yea, their forecasts are ocassionaly strange.
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17. Levi32
6:45 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Quoting upweatherdog:
One thing to note is below normal SSTs over the Gulf of Mexico. That may limit hurricane development in the northern Gulf. Overall, I think, just like NOAA, that the hurricane season will be normal.


The NOAA forecast is funny....what the heck is a 9-14 forecast? With a 25% chance for 5 and a 25% chance for 17? I couldn't be any more vague if I wanted to.
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16. upweatherdog
6:41 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
One thing to note is below normal SSTs over the Gulf of Mexico. That may limit hurricane development in the northern Gulf. Overall, I think, just like NOAA, that the hurricane season will be normal.
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15. Levi32
6:33 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Quoting jphurricane2006:
Well either way Levi I see El Nino only slightly impacting this years hurricane season, to me we will see a El Nino get stronger closer to the winter months.


Yeah the ENSO naturally strengthens towards early winter. We'll see how it impacts the hurricane season. I do think people rely on El Nino too much in predicting the hurricane season's impacts.
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14. upweatherdog
6:30 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Well said Levi!

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13. jphurricane2006
6:28 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Well either way Levi I see El Nino only slightly impacting this years hurricane season, to me we will see a El Nino get stronger closer to the winter months.
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12. Levi32
6:21 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Quoting jphurricane2006:
I dont think El Nino will strengthen much at all until about October time frame. Indications lately are that the weathers in the EPAC have actually cooled a bit and that the quick transition to El Nino has been slowed quite a bit


That's only because of the upward motion in the west Pacific.



El Nino is an atmospheric-oceanic relationship. This one is atmospheric-driven, meaning that the ocean responds to what the atmosphere is doing. The upward motion that has been over the WPAC was creating anomalous low pressure that counteracted the easterly trades that were trying to set up. Once the downward motion currently in the Indian Ocean moves into the West Pacific, the SOI will tank again, the easterlies will drive more warm water eastward, and people will again say the El Nino is fast approaching. The reality is it's already here.
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11. jphurricane2006
6:14 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
I dont think El Nino will strengthen much at all until about October time frame. Indications lately are that the weathers in the EPAC have actually cooled a bit and that the quick transition to El Nino has been slowed quite a bit
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10. upweatherdog
6:12 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Actually, after pondering over the long range models, MJO forecasts, ENSO data, and NAO data for the past month, there are indications that temps will be average to slightly above average for the northern Lakes with above normal precip. Looks like the average jetstream flow here will be west northwest and sometimes west southwest. With a weak El Nino now that will strenghten through the summer, the core of the cold will be pushed eastward.

Notice how 500mb heights are going mainly below normal in the next 8 to 10 days over the arctic, so cold air will become bottled up north, at least for the rest of June.
Link
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9. Levi32
6:03 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Quoting upweatherdog:


Whoa! 70s in Alaska! All that ridging up there is driving the cold down here. It's been in the 50s for almost a week. In my are June is around 10F below average temp wise with above average precip. Today got into the 60s, so thats a start to warmer weather.lol

Looks like our cold pattern will break with 500mb heighs around 582 next week and 850mb temps around 12 to 18C. Surface temps here for the rest of June look like they will mainly be in the mid 70s. Plentiful moisture from the gulf will fuel thunderstorms. Looks like our severe wx threat will increase dramaticaly next week :)


60s are really warm here lol. 70s are HOT.

Unfortunately you're probably going to have a cooler than normal summer down there, but enjoy the warm-up next week :)
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8. upweatherdog
5:59 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Quoting Levi32:


Hey Torri! Yeah you caught me in the middle of writing about it! lol.

Gotta love the weather up here =) I hit 71 degrees last Sunday! Enjoy the sun, I know I will :)


Whoa! 70s in Alaska! All that ridging up there is driving the cold down here. It's been in the 50s for almost a week. In my are June is around 10F below average temp wise with above average precip. Today got into the 60s, so thats a start to warmer weather.lol

Looks like our cold pattern will break with 500mb heighs around 582 next week and 850mb temps around 12 to 18C. Surface temps here for the rest of June look like they will mainly be in the mid 70s. Plentiful moisture from the gulf will fuel thunderstorms. Looks like our severe wx threat will increase dramaticaly next week :)
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7. Levi32
5:44 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Dang JP forecast cones would be so cool lol.

12z Canadian forms a TS in 72 hours in the western Caribbean and takes it into the western Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. It's about time this model starts hyping up a system lol.

It's also eerily similar to the track of SIM storm Annika.....
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6. jphurricane2006
5:10 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Levi I responded to you on my blog, but I can do it here as well.

The movement of the SIM storms is up to chance, so I couldnt tell you where she is going yet lol
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3. Levi32
5:04 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Quoting jphurricane2006:
Well done Levi as always, action could pick up soon

Anyway in case you are interested I continued to update the Sim storm Annika on my blog


Thanks JP. I dropped a comment in your blog.
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2. Levi32
4:58 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Quoting AKSnowLuvr:
Good morning, Levi... anything interesting on the radar this morning? :) Besides BE-YOO-tiful spring weather here? :D


Hey Torri! Yeah you caught me in the middle of writing about it! lol.

Gotta love the weather up here =) I hit 71 degrees last Sunday! Enjoy the sun, I know I will :)
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1. jphurricane2006
4:58 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Well done Levi as always, action could pick up soon

Anyway in case you are interested I continued to update the Sim storm Annika on my blog
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About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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