Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.
By: Levi32 , 4:54 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
Tropical Tidbit from 12:30pm EDT June 10, 2009:
The weather in the Caribbean continues to be dominated by an upper trough extending from east of Florida down to Honduras. Divergence on the east flank of this trough is still sparking showers and thunderstorms over Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas, although not as many as yesterday. A tropical wave along 82W just east of Nicaragua is enhancing thunderstorms over Panama and Columbia associated with a broad area of low pressure.
The GFS, NAM, and NOGAPS are forecasting a closed low to form in the SW Caribbean in the next 2 days within the moisture surge brought by the tropical wave. The upper trough is currently imparting 30+ knots of shear over the entire area, making conditions too hostile to allow any tropical development. However, the GFS and NAM forecast the upper trough to start lifting out by this weekend, getting replaced by a weaker shortwave dropping down from Florida. This shortwave will become a closed upper low and drift SW over Mexico, allowing an area of low shear to develop over the western Caribbean in 3-5 days as an upper ridge noses in.
Most of the models are still too fast in the formation and movement of the forecasted Caribbean low, and I am continuing to lean towards the ECMWF model, which has been very consistent in forming a weak low over the SW Caribbean this weekend and moving it slowly northwest next week. During this time frame the low would be under more favorable conditions, but at this point development is uncertain.
The pattern I've been talking about is almost here, with the MJO coming over and ridging building over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. This may not be the only disturbance we track over the next 15 days, and the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico need to be watched for trouble. A look into the future shows the next tropical wave in the central Atlantic bringing another moisture surge into the Caribbean in 6-8 days. I will continue to monitor the Caribbean for any changes.
We shall see what happens!
Forecasted Total Accumulated Precipitation during the next 72 hours:
Figure 1. GFS forecasted precipitaion. The GFS has QPF problems and the bomb of 10 inches of rain over Jamaica on this map should be ignored. These areas in the western Caribbean will be getting 1-3 inches of rain over the next 3 days, with isolated amounts of up to 6 inches.
West Caribbean Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)
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