Tropics still deliver no storms

By: Levi32 , 3:58 PM GMT on June 15, 2009

Tropical Tidbit from 12:00pm EDT Monday, June 15, 2009:

There is nothing remarkable to report in the tropics this morning. The pattern reversal in the western Caribbean has completed, with an upper anticyclone now situated over the surface trough as the old ULL retreats into the east Pacific. Convection has increased slightly in concentration, and will likely continue to do so under favorable upper-level conditions, but there is not enough time for anything significant to develop. The system will be inland over Belize and the southern Yucatan by 48 hours, and the energy will stay over central America and extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this week. Starting next week and through the end of June the western Caribbean and especially southern/western Gulf of Mexico will have to be watched again as this area of building heat advects northward.

Some of the global models are still hinting at a low or two forming along an old quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the NW Atlantic in 2-4 days, but model support is not near as strong as it was the last couple days. These lows would initiate as cold-core entities and would have to convert to sub-tropical, as some models were indicating. However, this usually takes a lot of time, and the position of the upper high over the GOM favors shortwaves plunging south over the eastern seaboard that should pick up anything sitting there rather quickly. I don't expect anything significant to unfold here. Nevertheless I will keep an eye on the area as wind shear will be low and Gulf Stream SSTs favorable.

Elsewhere....the African wave train is spitting out another probable tropical wave over the west coast of Africa. The GFS keeps trying to do something with these waves but it's still too early in the season. The sub-tropical jet is still south of 20N over the tropical Atlantic and is shearing everything. As these waves start to come off further north we will have to watch them down the road when they get in to the Caribbean.

Global tropical activity remains at a minimum. Invest 98W in the WPAC has no chance. 99W has a better shot but is poorly organized right now. The east Pacific should be the first to try to get something going later this week as heat continues to build in that area with the MJO upward motion pulse. Again we need to watch the western Caribbean and GOM next week as that heat moves northward and we get favorable upper-level conditions over the area. Threats are minimal this week with the sub-tropical jet coming back into the Caribbean and enforcing strong shear.

We shall see what happens!

Caribbean Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)






The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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9. jphurricane2006
1:08 AM GMT on June 16, 2009
Hurricane Isodore in 1990 developed at 7.2N

That is from what I can see the furthest south any storm has formed in the Atlantic Basin
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8. Levi32
12:48 AM GMT on June 16, 2009
Quoting jphurricane2006:
also wonder what is the storm that has formed the furthest south in the Atlantic lol


Off the top of my head I think Hurricane Ivan in 2004....but not positive.

K later lol.
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7. Levi32
12:47 AM GMT on June 16, 2009
Whatever I'm close lol. I'm very bad at history....wasn't around to experience a lot of it lol.

I gotta go now cya later JP.
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6. jphurricane2006
12:47 AM GMT on June 16, 2009
also wonder what is the storm that has formed the furthest south in the Atlantic lol
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5. jphurricane2006
12:47 AM GMT on June 16, 2009
Well I count 4 so far lol

Super Typhoon Sarah from 1956
TS Holly from 1981
TS Vamei from 2001
Cyclone Agni from 2004
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4. jphurricane2006
12:45 AM GMT on June 16, 2009
Also Super Typhoon Sarah in 1956 formed at 2.2N
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3. Levi32
12:43 AM GMT on June 16, 2009
Hey JP. Ah thanks yeah there's only been like 3 storms that formed within 5 degrees of the equator. It's an interesting topic.
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2. jphurricane2006
12:43 AM GMT on June 16, 2009
2001

Tropical Storm Vamei(international designation: 0126, JTWC designation: 32W, sometimes called Typhoon Vamei; formerly had the alternate name Tropical Storm 05B) was a Pacific tropical cyclone that formed closer to the equator than any other tropical cyclone worldwide. The last storm of the 2001 Pacific typhoon season, Vamei developed on December 26 at 1.4° N in the South China Sea. It strengthened quickly and made landfall along extreme southeastern Malaysia. Vamei rapidly dissipated over Sumatra on December 28, and the remnants eventually re-organized in the North Indian Ocean.
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1. jphurricane2006
12:41 AM GMT on June 16, 2009
Yo Levi I see the convo you guys are having, there are several other storms to note:

1981

Tropical Storm HollyTropical storm (JMA)
Tropical storm (SSHS)


Duration April 29 %u2013 May 7
Intensity 85 km/h (50 mph) (10-min), 996 hPa (mbar)


A broad area of thunderstorm straddled the equator around the International Date Line beginning on April 21. A tropical system in the southern hemisphere was interacting with a strong system in the main belt of the Westerlies. Around this time, convective increased north of the equator, with a low level circulation forming near4N 169E late on April 25. By midday on April 29 it had become a tropical depression as it continued to move westward. Holly became a tropical storm on April 30 and almost became a typhoon late on May 1. Southwesterly vertical wind shear began to weaken the cyclone thereafter, causing Holly to dissipate over the open Pacific ocean.[5]
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Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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