Mostly quiet in the tropics

By: Levi32 , 4:06 PM GMT on June 16, 2009

Tropical Tidbit from 12:00pm EDT Tuesday, June 16, 2009:

Things remain quiet for the most part in the Atlantic; typical of June. The area of most interest is our persistent surface trough in the NW Caribbean, which has continued to slowly organize. Convection has become nice and consolidated, with a nice 850mb vort max just NE of Belize. As expected this system will not have enough time to get a closed circulation before moving inland over the Yucatan, and the primary issue will be rain. In 2-3 days this trough will move into the southern Bay of Campeche, where potential development is not out of the question, but most of the energy is going to the east Pacific and Mexico so development seems unlikely to me. I will keep an eye on it just in case.

The models have come into a decent consensus on a weak low forming along a frontal boundary off the coast of North Carolina tomorrow. This low should be picked up pretty fast by an upper shortwave trough and associated low pressure system dropping SE over New England in 48 hours. Conditions would be favorable during its time near North Carolina, but the low will initiate as cold-core and probably won't have enough time to become sub-tropical or tropical. I do not expect anything significant to develop in this area, but it will be watched.

Global tropical cyclone activity continues to stay at a minimum. There have been no named storms in the world so far this June, and there were only 3 in May. It is interesting to note that the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season from October 2008 to April 2009 had the lowest ACE (107) in 30 years. The West Pacific has a few invests that could have a chance at developing, but we'll see how they do in the face of the downward motion starting to come in from the Indian Ocean to the west. The east Pacific has invest 92E which may also have a shot at getting named, but it remains to be seen. The east Pacific will continue to have most of the global tropical energy this week. Next week that energy will be moving north and east, and as I continue stressing we will have to watch the western Caribbean and southern/west/central Gulf of Mexico for potential trouble brewing. The return of hostile upper-level winds in the Caribbean and GOM this week should keep everything in check for the time being.

We shall see what happens!

Caribbean Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)






The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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15. AKSnowLuvr
11:35 PM GMT on June 16, 2009
True, you can get out of the way of a hurricane (why is it again that people stay when they KNOW it's coming right at them? :P) but landfall points of each hurricane season are just as unpredictable as the volcano blowing. However, I like my odds of never having a hurricane hit me here. :D Doesn't keep me from glueing my nose to the TV during hurricane season watching the Weather Channel, though!! LOL!
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14. Levi32
10:16 PM GMT on June 16, 2009
Main circulation moving inland now:

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12. Levi32
7:08 PM GMT on June 16, 2009
Hey stillwaiting, I figured out the reason for your observation that the main convergence area is hanging back east of the Yucatan. It's because of the tropical wave along 83w. The surface trough ahead of it is the main system we've been tracking and it's moving inland right now, but the wave is piling in its energy and keeping convection focused back east over the water north of Honduras. Within 48 hours the whole mess will be inland, but that was a good observation on your part.

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11. tornadofan
5:37 PM GMT on June 16, 2009
I don't think it's very fun not knowing every summer if your property is going to get destroyed though.

Odds are pretty low overall. Sure, an Andrew comes along to places like Homestead every now and then. But overall, it is pretty rare, outside of storm surge territory, to get your property destroyed it seems. Of course, all trees within range of the house got cut down last year when Gustav formed, just in case.
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10. Levi32
5:30 PM GMT on June 16, 2009
Quoting tornadofan:


As a person that has gotten to experience some tropical weather the past 6 years, including Ivan and Katrina, I'd have to say that I prefer the tropics over cold and volcanoes.

We can usually see the hurricanes coming well in advance and can prepare. Plus, I don't live within storm surge range.


Hm well I wouldn't mind experiencing a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane at least once in my lifetime. You're right at least they're predictable. I don't think it's very fun not knowing every summer if your property is going to get destroyed though.
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9. tornadofan
4:49 PM GMT on June 16, 2009
Quoting AKSnowLuvr:
Off to a quiet start this year... good for the general population, but a bit disappointing for those of us waiting for the intense weather. I admit, hurricanes fascinate me, but they scare the bejeebus out of me at the same time. I would rather live in the land of volcanoes and earthquakes, I guess... :P
Did you get any of that rain yesterday? :)


As a person that has gotten to experience some tropical weather the past 6 years, including Ivan and Katrina, I'd have to say that I prefer the tropics over cold and volcanoes.

We can usually see the hurricanes coming well in advance and can prepare. Plus, I don't live within storm surge range.
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8. Levi32
4:45 PM GMT on June 16, 2009
Quoting AKSnowLuvr:
Off to a quiet start this year... good for the general population, but a bit disappointing for those of us waiting for the intense weather. I admit, hurricanes fascinate me, but they scare the bejeebus out of me at the same time. I would rather live in the land of volcanoes and earthquakes, I guess... :P
Did you get any of that rain yesterday? :)


Yeah I dunno I'm getting pretty fed up with that giant that can't decide whether to hit the alarm clock and sleep some more or get up with a bang lol. I'd like to experience lower 48 weather....never even been down there except once in Ohio and it was winter, which was just like Alaska.

No I got no rain....just clouds...I want the sun to come back.
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7. AKSnowLuvr
4:40 PM GMT on June 16, 2009
Off to a quiet start this year... good for the general population, but a bit disappointing for those of us waiting for the intense weather. I admit, hurricanes fascinate me, but they scare the bejeebus out of me at the same time. I would rather live in the land of volcanoes and earthquakes, I guess... :P
Did you get any of that rain yesterday? :)
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6. Levi32
4:35 PM GMT on June 16, 2009
Quoting stillwaiting:
great read levi,I was expecting the GOH low to get invest status today, before it goes over land,the main area of convergence appears to still be 150-200 miles off of the belize coastline???


Yes it is but QuikSCAT last night at 8pm eastern time showed the trough axis already 100 miles from shore (guessing), and the 850mb chart this morning shows the area of greatest low-level turning pretty close to shore as well.





At this point it looks like the circulation that is trying to form will be pushed inland pretty soon here. It's not out of the question that it can stay fairly organized over the Yucatan....that's where Arthur formed last year.
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5. stillwaiting
4:31 PM GMT on June 16, 2009
great read levi,I was expecting the GOH low to get invest status today, before it goes over land,the main area of convergence appears to still be 150-200 miles off of the belize coastline???
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4. Levi32
4:28 PM GMT on June 16, 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Great update.Thanks. It will be interesting watching what will happen. As you said we shall see. Oh btw good morning. there are 26 minutes left in my morning. Lol.


Lol good morning. I have oh....technically 212 minutes left in mine, but considering that I have to start school in only 60 that pretty much ends my morning right there lol.
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3. Levi32
4:26 PM GMT on June 16, 2009
Lol who knows, but this is only one year, and the sunspots have been very low for the past few. We're about to start going up again:

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2. homelesswanderer
4:25 PM GMT on June 16, 2009
Great update.Thanks. It will be interesting watching what will happen. As you said we shall see. Oh btw good morning. there are 26 minutes left in my morning. Lol.
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1. tornadofan
4:22 PM GMT on June 16, 2009
Low sunspot count = low activity in worldwide tropics?
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Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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