Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.
By: Levi32 , 4:06 PM GMT on June 16, 2009
Tropical Tidbit from 12:00pm EDT Tuesday, June 16, 2009:
Things remain quiet for the most part in the Atlantic; typical of June. The area of most interest is our persistent surface trough in the NW Caribbean, which has continued to slowly organize. Convection has become nice and consolidated, with a nice 850mb vort max just NE of Belize. As expected this system will not have enough time to get a closed circulation before moving inland over the Yucatan, and the primary issue will be rain. In 2-3 days this trough will move into the southern Bay of Campeche, where potential development is not out of the question, but most of the energy is going to the east Pacific and Mexico so development seems unlikely to me. I will keep an eye on it just in case.
The models have come into a decent consensus on a weak low forming along a frontal boundary off the coast of North Carolina tomorrow. This low should be picked up pretty fast by an upper shortwave trough and associated low pressure system dropping SE over New England in 48 hours. Conditions would be favorable during its time near North Carolina, but the low will initiate as cold-core and probably won't have enough time to become sub-tropical or tropical. I do not expect anything significant to develop in this area, but it will be watched.
Global tropical cyclone activity continues to stay at a minimum. There have been no named storms in the world so far this June, and there were only 3 in May. It is interesting to note that the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season from October 2008 to April 2009 had the lowest ACE (107) in 30 years. The West Pacific has a few invests that could have a chance at developing, but we'll see how they do in the face of the downward motion starting to come in from the Indian Ocean to the west. The east Pacific has invest 92E which may also have a shot at getting named, but it remains to be seen. The east Pacific will continue to have most of the global tropical energy this week. Next week that energy will be moving north and east, and as I continue stressing we will have to watch the western Caribbean and southern/west/central Gulf of Mexico for potential trouble brewing. The return of hostile upper-level winds in the Caribbean and GOM this week should keep everything in check for the time being.
We shall see what happens!
Caribbean Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)
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