Atlantic quiet for now; other basins heat up

By: Levi32 , 4:21 PM GMT on June 17, 2009

Tropical Tidbit from 12:00pm EDT Wednesday, June 17, 2009:

The surface trough and tropical wave complex we were tracking in the western Caribbean yesterday has moved inland over the Yucatan. The trough is already in the southern Bay of Campeche with the wave lingering behind. This is dividing the energy, most of which is staying inland over Central America anyway. Due to somewhat favorable conditions in the southern Bay of Campeche under an upper-level high, the system will be watched over the next 48 hours, but I do not expect significant development of this system.

A low forming off the Carolinas along a frontal boundary will be picked up by a mid-latitude low within 48 hours and swept off to the NE out to sea. Before that happens it may turn into one of those nasty hybrids with tight gales and convection that takes ships by surprise, but despite favorable conditions there is not enough time for this to turn into a sub-tropical system and I don't expect significant development.

Some good news is that behind the mid-latitude storm that will pick up the Carolinas low another shortwave trough will be swinging down from the Great Lakes into the NE US in 5 days. This trough is forecast to dig southward and sit over the eastern seaboard for a few days, dragging a cold front down all the way to Florida. This should provide some much-wanted relief in the form of rain and cooler temperatures to the southeastern states east of Louisiana.

The GFS is continuing to forecast increasing moisture to advect northward from the east Pacific into the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico during the 8-15 day time frame. There will be an upper-level weakness over the Gulf of Mexico between the upper high over Texas and the high over the SW Atlantic due to the mean upper trough over the eastern seaboard. We will need to watch the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for tropical trouble trying to come north starting late next week and into early July.

The world-wide tropics may be finally getting their act together. Invest 92E in the eastern Pacific which should be a tropical depression is gradually organizing and has a good shot at getting named. In the west Pacific Invest 98W has been upgraded to TD 03W and may get named as it drifts slowly NE. Invest 90W just to its east near the northern Philippines may develop as well if it gets far enough away from TD 03W. Despite large-scale downward motion due to the MJO, a monsoonal low is forming in the Bay of Bengal, and has been labeled Invest 92B. So while the rest of the world tries to heat up in the tropics, the Atlantic should be void of much activity for the next 5-7 days as the TUTT returns to set up shop in the NW Caribbean, bringing strong wind shear to most of the western Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. The Atlantic will see trouble soon enough, possibly as soon as a week from now, so make sure you're ready for the season!

We shall see what happens!

Caribbean Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)

Another strong tropical wave is ready to exit the African coast. The GFS tries to develop this a little bit in the central Atlantic, but the window of opportunity would be small due to the sub-tropical jet enforcing shear everywhere west of 50W. It's still a bit too early to think much about these waves developing in the eastern Atlantic, but they do need to be watched as they get into the Caribbean down the road.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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6. Levi32
6:33 PM GMT on June 17, 2009
I'm sure if I lived down there I would prefer the same lol. Well maybe I'm speaking too soon as I have experienced neither.....hottest temp I've been in was 80ish with 40% humidity.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. homelesswanderer
6:30 PM GMT on June 17, 2009
Lol. Now I didnt say I liked it. Just a case of...Rather the devil that know you than the devil that you don't. Its always hot here. Lol.
The other is always up in the air. :)
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4. Levi32
6:27 PM GMT on June 17, 2009
Will do lol. I'm glad you like the heat, because you're going to have it for a while =)
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3. homelesswanderer
5:26 PM GMT on June 17, 2009
Great update Levi. Oh and good morning! Lol. I'm late today. Afternoon here. Lol. I see you mentioned the high over Tx. I know its hotter than Hades here but I'd much rather put up with the heat than hurricanes. From reading Dr. M's blog that seems to put me in the minority. Oh well. The saying goes be careful what you wish for. If you see this high moving or breaking down...Warn Me!! Lol. Have a good one. :)
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2. Levi32
5:08 PM GMT on June 17, 2009
Yup it's a big battle of heat vs cold. Very wet weather for the eastern United States.
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1. upweatherdog
4:37 PM GMT on June 17, 2009
Yep, things could get ative next week. Models show a large ridge of high pressure developing somewhere around the Gulf, causing shear to weaken.

This high pressure setup is going to pump very warm, moist air into my area through the rest of June and July. Looks like I will be dealing with weekly severe weather with any fronts that come through.
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Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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