TD 01-E nears landfall in Mexico; Atlantic still quiet

By: Levi32 , 5:31 PM GMT on June 19, 2009

Tropical Tidbit from 1:00pm EDT Friday, June 19, 2009:

Here's my 2nd video. There may be a few pauses/blurps because my brothers got up earlier than I expected this morning and kept bursting into the computer room while I was recording LOL. I've decided to keep the written updates going as well for people who can't view the video or just prefer a written blog. Today's update is below the video.


Turn up the volume, and click HD if the quality is too low:



The main feature this morning is TD 01E in the east Pacific moving NE towards landfall in southern Sinaloa, Mexico. The system is getting affected by strong southerly shear being inflicted by an upper trough over the Gulf of California, and the low-level center is positioned under the southern edge of the convection. The NHC is still forecasting this to get named before landfall but I don't buy it. This system is small and vulnerable and will dissipate quickly after landfall over the mountains of Mexico. Rainfall amounts of generally 1-3 inches are expected in the states of Sinaloa, Nayarit, Durango, and Chihuahua with local amounts of 4-6 inches.

The two systems in the western Pacific continue to duke it out, with TS Linfa winning, but neither system is very healthy right now due to dry air to the north being punched into their circulations by an upper trough in close proximity. Linfa's current forecast track takes her between Taiwan and SE China. Due to the conditions she is expected to remain at TS intensity, and the main issue for these areas will be heavy rain, especially over mountainous Taiwan. There are no other areas of tropical interest around the globe.

In the Atlantic Basin, there is nothing to currently worry about, but we will be watching as a low-pressure system stalls off the US east coast in 4-6 days bringing a cold front down into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Fronts like these with possible trough-splits aloft have to be watched for trouble, and moisture from the Caribbean may be drawn into this situation as well. So far the models are having a difficult time narrowing down this situation and the exact behavior of the low off the eastern seaboard. I will be keeping an eye on it early next week.

We shall see what happens!



Caribbean Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)






The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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13. homelesswanderer
2:41 AM GMT on June 20, 2009
Great job Levi! I'm glad you're here to keep every one informed. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
12. Levi32
2:01 AM GMT on June 20, 2009
Thanks Shore =) I personally can't stand my own voice when I hear it but...I guess that's the way everyone feels.

Quoting upweatherdog:
Levi- I got a question. What screencast size did you use for your video. I used SMALL HD, do you use MEDIUM HD?


I couldn't get it to fit right with my screen resolution so I pumped my screen to 1280 x 1024 and used the 1024 x 768 screen size. The size options in the drop-down menu will change depending on what you have your screen resolution set for. That's how I figured it out for the screen I have.

Quoting KEHCharleston:
Another Ahh... moment
Now I get the trough split thing - I think.
Ok.. the trough elongates as it pulls NE, and the tail of the trough breaks away. If I understand this correctly the trough breaks away because the trough gets stretched and thinned allowing other weather features to push through the weak area of the trough cutting off the tail from the rest of the trough. Did I get it right?


Perfecto KEH! It usually only happens with positively-tilted troughs (oriented SW to NE) because that's usually the only position they can get stretched out and stalled in.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
11. KEHCharleston
1:27 AM GMT on June 20, 2009
Another Ahh... moment
Now I get the trough split thing - I think.
Ok.. the trough elongates as it pulls NE, and the tail of the trough breaks away. If I understand this correctly the trough breaks away because the trough gets stretched and thinned allowing other weather features to push through the weak area of the trough cutting off the tail from the rest of the trough. Did I get it right?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
10. shoreacres
12:33 AM GMT on June 20, 2009
Levi!

This was the first time I saw one of your videos. It's just great. Not only do you do a good job with the technical aspects, your explanation is interesting and clear. I really liked it, and for someone like me who generally gets lost in the explanations, it's the perfect solution. The extra guidance is really helpful.

I suppose someone's already told you what a great speaking voice you have - that helps, too. You're very easy to listen to, and with your obvious grasp of your material - well....
I'd take you over any of our tv weather dudes and dudettes!

Great job.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
9. upweatherdog
11:02 PM GMT on June 19, 2009
Levi- I got a question. What screencast size did you use for your video. I used SMALL HD, do you use MEDIUM HD?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
8. RENONV
11:00 PM GMT on June 19, 2009
I've been to Homer, it's another great little town in southeast Alaska. Regarding the danger to fishing. I find driving on the LA freeway is much more dangerous than being on the Bearing Sea in it's worst weather conditions.

For the past 20 years I have been working in the insurance industry. Primarily working the aftermath of server weather events that impact the U.S. I would rather be on the Bearing Sea than rummaging through a building or on a three-story roof that has been destroyed by fire, hurricanes or tornados. Every job has its element of risk.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
7. Levi32
10:25 PM GMT on June 19, 2009
Quoting Welling2000:
Levi32,

Just a note of appreciation for your efforts.
Good Job.
BTW, in your heading,you might want to spell Collaboration correctly. The word comes from Co- meaning together, and Labor, with "ation" added to create the noun form.

Thanks again for your blog info.


Oh thanks....silly mistake there. I fixed it :)

Quoting RENONV:
Once again…great job and thanks.

By the way I spent seven years in Alaska back in the 70’s. I commercially fished the Bearing Sea for king and tanner crab out of Dutch Harbor; South East Alaska for salmon, halibut, black code from Ketchikan to Sitka. I really miss my trips up there.

Keep up the good work.

Lenny
Reno, Nevada


Thanks Lenny. I can't really imagine fishing commercially here in Alaska. When you see things like the show "Deadliest Catch" (I've never really watched it) it makes it look very uncomfortable and dangerous. Here in Homer almost everyone in town fishes but my family goes against the grain. We've never owned a boat =)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
6. RENONV
9:32 PM GMT on June 19, 2009
Once again…great job and thanks.

By the way I spent seven years in Alaska back in the 70’s. I commercially fished the Bearing Sea for king and tanner crab out of Dutch Harbor; South East Alaska for salmon, halibut, black code from Ketchikan to Sitka. I really miss my trips up there.

Keep up the good work.

Lenny
Reno, Nevada
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. Welling2000
7:07 PM GMT on June 19, 2009
Levi32,

Just a note of appreciation for your efforts.
Good Job.
BTW, in your heading,you might want to spell Collaboration correctly. The word comes from Co- meaning together, and Labor, with "ation" added to create the noun form.

Thanks again for your blog info.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. Levi32
6:22 PM GMT on June 19, 2009
Quoting upweatherdog:


Yea, I guess powerpoint would be difficult to use.

I have made my own screencast on my blog for todays severe weather. I can see this being the thing everyone will start to do on their blogs in the next week.


Oh I know I've had several people asking me all about how I did this so they can do it lol =) It would be a great thing for this site.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. upweatherdog
6:17 PM GMT on June 19, 2009
Quoting Levi32:


I just did it within the web browser. It would take too much time to save all the images and put them in powerpoint. My updates every morning already take a lot of time to do. I just hope the images are showing up large enough in the video. Today's wasn't as good as yesterday's video.


Yea, I guess powerpoint would be difficult to use.

I have made my own screencast on my blog for todays severe weather. I can see this being the thing everyone will start to do on their blogs in the next week.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2. InTheCone
6:14 PM GMT on June 19, 2009
Very nice video update! I have been reading your posts on the main blog for awhile and you do a nice job of putting out pertinent information in a way that is easily understood.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. Levi32
5:40 PM GMT on June 19, 2009
Quoting upweatherdog:
Very cool!

Henry on accuweather does his videos the same way. I always wondered how it was done.lol

One question, how did you make the data slideshow and draw. Did you use Powerpoint?


I just did it within the web browser. It would take too much time to save all the images and put them in powerpoint. My updates every morning already take a lot of time to do. I just hope the images are showing up large enough in the video. Today's wasn't as good as yesterday's video.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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