Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.
By: Levi32 , 5:31 PM GMT on June 19, 2009
Tropical Tidbit from 1:00pm EDT Friday, June 19, 2009:
Here's my 2nd video. There may be a few pauses/blurps because my brothers got up earlier than I expected this morning and kept bursting into the computer room while I was recording LOL. I've decided to keep the written updates going as well for people who can't view the video or just prefer a written blog. Today's update is below the video.
Turn up the volume, and click HD if the quality is too low:
The main feature this morning is TD 01E in the east Pacific moving NE towards landfall in southern Sinaloa, Mexico. The system is getting affected by strong southerly shear being inflicted by an upper trough over the Gulf of California, and the low-level center is positioned under the southern edge of the convection. The NHC is still forecasting this to get named before landfall but I don't buy it. This system is small and vulnerable and will dissipate quickly after landfall over the mountains of Mexico. Rainfall amounts of generally 1-3 inches are expected in the states of Sinaloa, Nayarit, Durango, and Chihuahua with local amounts of 4-6 inches.
The two systems in the western Pacific continue to duke it out, with TS Linfa winning, but neither system is very healthy right now due to dry air to the north being punched into their circulations by an upper trough in close proximity. Linfa's current forecast track takes her between Taiwan and SE China. Due to the conditions she is expected to remain at TS intensity, and the main issue for these areas will be heavy rain, especially over mountainous Taiwan. There are no other areas of tropical interest around the globe.
In the Atlantic Basin, there is nothing to currently worry about, but we will be watching as a low-pressure system stalls off the US east coast in 4-6 days bringing a cold front down into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Fronts like these with possible trough-splits aloft have to be watched for trouble, and moisture from the Caribbean may be drawn into this situation as well. So far the models are having a difficult time narrowing down this situation and the exact behavior of the low off the eastern seaboard. I will be keeping an eye on it early next week.
We shall see what happens!
Caribbean Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.