Andres dies, but not before taking 1 life with him

By: Levi32 , 4:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2009

Tropical Tidbit from 12:00pm EDT Wednesday, June 24, 2009:
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No video today. It's too quiet lol.
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As expected, Tropical Storm Andres failed to revive himself and is how completely void of convection. The storm will continue to weaken as it moves off to the WNW over cold SSTs away from the Mexican coast. Andres was declared a hurricane yesterday after hurricane hunters found hurricane-force winds with the SFMR instrument and a 65kt reading from a dropsonde. Based on Andres' bare satellite appearance at the time of these readings, it is likely that Andres had been stronger than this on Monday, possibly as strong as an 80-knot Cat 1, before ingestion of dry stable air severely weakened him.

Andres claimed one life in Mexico. This from a FOX News report:

"...rain caused flooding Monday in the resort of Acapulco that forced about 200 people to evacuate their homes. A fisherman drowned when choppy currents overturned his boat in a lagoon in Tecpan de Galeana, between Acapulco and Zihuatanejo, a state police report said." Click here to read full report

Atlantic:

It's another typical June day in the Atlantic, with no tropical disturbances to speak of. As usual we look to the forecasted pattern evolution and computer models to sniff out potential trouble spots. The first area we need to watch is the NW Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico. An old frontal trough laying across the Bahamas extending over south Florida and the eastern GOM associated with a stationary upper trough off the eastern US is expected to spawn a couple areas of weak low pressure over the next couple days, with one of them near the north gulf coast. The upper trough that has been stuck off the east coast for days now is going to split and lift out leaving a piece behind in the SE Gulf of Mexico. We now have the two primary causes of early season tropical cyclones, trough-splits and old fronts.

As this is happening an upper high is forecast to be building northwestward in the western Caribbean as the TUTT lifts out, and the GFS is insisting that there will be some sort of disturbance coming out of the SW Caribbean during this time and trying to come north. I think most of what the model is seeing is the tropical wave currently along 67w that will be in the western Caribbean in 2-3 days. As this wave moves into the area of the trough split and old front in the Gulf of Mexico we will have to watch all of these features closely. One should also keep in mind that we remain in the upward phase of the MJO, where upward motion is enhanced in our part of the world. However, the latest forecast shows a burst of downward motion (orange colors) will finally make it across to our area in 5-10 days, which is unfavorable for tropical development. It is equally likely that nothing of interest will materialize, but situations like this should always be watched for mischief.

The 2nd area that we should keep an eye on is purely based on the GFS, which is forecasting a tropical wave to develop into a closed tropical cyclone in the central and eastern Atlantic in 3-6 days. This wave is currently over Africa at about 0E, and will exit the coast sometime on Friday. The factors in favor of development are that the African Easterly Jet is currently a little stronger than normal and is enhancing several strong tropical waves that will be coming off in a train next week. The TUTT which has been dominating the eastern Atlantic all season so far is forecasted to lift out allowing more favorable upper-level winds and low wind shear to develop over the tropical Atlantic. Also, the MJO will be keeping an area of upward motion over the central and eastern Atlantic for the next 5-10 days.

Factors against development are that the GFS develops the wave rather far south, near 5N, which is pretty unlikely. The GFS is likely having it follow the warm SSTs, as sub-26C water temps still extend all the way down to 10N. This leads to the 2nd factor which is that it is still very early in the year for Cape Verde-type developments, and because of this the warm SSTs are still found very far south in the east/central Atlantic. Another thing to consider is that the GFS has been very off its game so far this season, forecasting ghost storms and handling crucial patterns poorly. Therefore confidence in this model forecast is low, especially since there is no support from other models.

So, although unlikely, the potential is there, and this tropical wave will be watched closely as it comes off the African coast in 2 days.

We shall see what happens!



Caribbean Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)






The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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8. shoreacres
3:03 AM GMT on June 25, 2009
Hi, Levi ~

Smart to save videos for times when you need another tool to explain a complex or particularly interesting situation. One of my very favorite sayings is, "Just because we can do something doesn't mean we should do something!"

We cracked an all time record today - previous high for June was 99, and we hit 104, with heat indices around 110. I hate to think what that's doing to the Gulf waters. The good news is that it makes 90 seem cool!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
7. homelesswanderer
10:26 PM GMT on June 24, 2009
Ok, Finally got 5 seconds to read the update. Yes it is sad that Andres took a life. Humberto did too. Never underestimate these things. I was getting spoiled with the videos too. But I'm happy with the text version as well. :) As you say we shall see what happens. Thanks for the update and have a good day.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
6. Levi32
7:06 PM GMT on June 24, 2009
Lol well to me the video is a waste of my morning time if I'm just going to talk about ghost storms :) The text sufficed just fine....I did get a little long-winded though...

You have a great day too!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. InTheCone
6:34 PM GMT on June 24, 2009
Nice update! I miss the video - am already spoiled! The Gotta Forecast Something is always ready, willing and able to produce ample fodder for the bloggers at this time of year when nothing real is happening! Keeps 'em happy:)

Have a great day!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. Levi32
4:26 PM GMT on June 24, 2009
Well you're right it's more unlikely than likely especially in June, but I would not be surprised at all if during the next couple days we get something interesting going on in the NW Caribbean and SE Gulf of Mexico. We could get a little low forming on the tail-end of that front/trough and then everyone will be screaming lol. Be they likely or not, it's my job to look for possibilities =)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. scottsvb
4:21 PM GMT on June 24, 2009
i really dont think any area is to be watched right now. Nothing is going to happen within the next few days. The NW carribean feature the 6z nam was showing was a laugh!..GFS is always out to lunch in June (until something actually forms)...and forget about the wave out in the Atlantic in a few days...it will come off looking good..then poof..maybe when it gets to 50W in a week. Otherwise, like you said.. its June..and until all models have something...I wouldnt bet a buck on anything forming.
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2. Levi32
4:11 PM GMT on June 24, 2009
It is indeed very sad Pat.
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1. Patrap
4:07 PM GMT on June 24, 2009
Even one Life lost to a System is too many.

The sea takes her toll,and a Family loses a member...sadly
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Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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