Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.
By: Levi32 , 4:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2009
Tropical Tidbit from 12:00pm EDT Wednesday, June 24, 2009:
No video today. It's too quiet lol.
As expected, Tropical Storm Andres failed to revive himself and is how completely void of convection. The storm will continue to weaken as it moves off to the WNW over cold SSTs away from the Mexican coast. Andres was declared a hurricane yesterday after hurricane hunters found hurricane-force winds with the SFMR instrument and a 65kt reading from a dropsonde. Based on Andres' bare satellite appearance at the time of these readings, it is likely that Andres had been stronger than this on Monday, possibly as strong as an 80-knot Cat 1, before ingestion of dry stable air severely weakened him.
Andres claimed one life in Mexico. This from a FOX News report:
"...rain caused flooding Monday in the resort of Acapulco that forced about 200 people to evacuate their homes. A fisherman drowned when choppy currents overturned his boat in a lagoon in Tecpan de Galeana, between Acapulco and Zihuatanejo, a state police report said." Click here to read full report
It's another typical June day in the Atlantic, with no tropical disturbances to speak of. As usual we look to the forecasted pattern evolution and computer models to sniff out potential trouble spots. The first area we need to watch is the NW Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico. An old frontal trough laying across the Bahamas extending over south Florida and the eastern GOM associated with a stationary upper trough off the eastern US is expected to spawn a couple areas of weak low pressure over the next couple days, with one of them near the north gulf coast. The upper trough that has been stuck off the east coast for days now is going to split and lift out leaving a piece behind in the SE Gulf of Mexico. We now have the two primary causes of early season tropical cyclones, trough-splits and old fronts.
As this is happening an upper high is forecast to be building northwestward in the western Caribbean as the TUTT lifts out, and the GFS is insisting that there will be some sort of disturbance coming out of the SW Caribbean during this time and trying to come north. I think most of what the model is seeing is the tropical wave currently along 67w that will be in the western Caribbean in 2-3 days. As this wave moves into the area of the trough split and old front in the Gulf of Mexico we will have to watch all of these features closely. One should also keep in mind that we remain in the upward phase of the MJO, where upward motion is enhanced in our part of the world. However, the latest forecast shows a burst of downward motion (orange colors) will finally make it across to our area in 5-10 days, which is unfavorable for tropical development. It is equally likely that nothing of interest will materialize, but situations like this should always be watched for mischief.
The 2nd area that we should keep an eye on is purely based on the GFS, which is forecasting a tropical wave to develop into a closed tropical cyclone in the central and eastern Atlantic in 3-6 days. This wave is currently over Africa at about 0E, and will exit the coast sometime on Friday. The factors in favor of development are that the African Easterly Jet is currently a little stronger than normal and is enhancing several strong tropical waves that will be coming off in a train next week. The TUTT which has been dominating the eastern Atlantic all season so far is forecasted to lift out allowing more favorable upper-level winds and low wind shear to develop over the tropical Atlantic. Also, the MJO will be keeping an area of upward motion over the central and eastern Atlantic for the next 5-10 days.
Factors against development are that the GFS develops the wave rather far south, near 5N, which is pretty unlikely. The GFS is likely having it follow the warm SSTs, as sub-26C water temps still extend all the way down to 10N. This leads to the 2nd factor which is that it is still very early in the year for Cape Verde-type developments, and because of this the warm SSTs are still found very far south in the east/central Atlantic. Another thing to consider is that the GFS has been very off its game so far this season, forecasting ghost storms and handling crucial patterns poorly. Therefore confidence in this model forecast is low, especially since there is no support from other models.
So, although unlikely, the potential is there, and this tropical wave will be watched closely as it comes off the African coast in 2 days.
We shall see what happens!
Caribbean Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.