Invest 93L in the western Caribbean

By: Levi32 , 4:48 PM GMT on June 26, 2009

Tropical Tidbit from 12:30pm EDT Friday, June 26, 2009:

Turn up the volume, and click HD if quality is too low:



The main feature today is the area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean that I've been watching since Wednesday. This area has now been designated "Invest 93L" by the NHC, which is nice because we can start to get some model runs on it today. What happened overnight is the mid-level circulation came north out of Honduras and into the western Caribbean, while the tropical wave to the east has moved in with the axis now just west of the Caymans. This has resulted in lots of convection going off in the area east of the mid-level low. The NHC is only talking about the tropical wave right now because they like to focus on surface features. Because of this they put the center of 93L on the wave axis NE of Honduras, where a buoy nearby registered a rapid pressure fall and a wind shift from S to NE earlier this morning. Pressure at the buoy has since risen almost as fast as it fell but just in the past hour has reported falling pressures again, which are pretty high to begin with at around 1013mb.

So, how strong is it going to get? Well with the trough-split over the western Yucatan backing SW it's setting up a nice upper high over the western Caribbean which is ventilating the disturbance, allowing it to breathe, as well as providing low wind shear. This, along with obviously warm SSTs in the area, means we could see some gradual organization of 93L over the next 24 hours. Within 36-48 hours 93L's northwestward motion is expected to carry it over the Yucatan, which will delay significant organization for a while. I don't expect anything big to come of this during its time in the Caribbean, as it still needs time to consolidate and get a surface low going before it can do anything. If a surface low does form it will likely initiate along the tropical wave axis. This wave is already amplifying so we will have to watch for for that today and tonight. Formation of a closed well-defined surface low will likely result in 93L getting upgraded Tropical Depression 2. For the moment there is nothing significant going on at the surface.

Ok, but where will it go? Will it threaten the north gulf coast? There is an upper weakness to the north over western Florida that is pulling north on 93L, but the trough-split to the west is acting as a westward pull on it, as well as trying to build a nosing ridge north of the system. These factors all combine to give a NW motion which should take 93L towards the NE Yucatan and eventually into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter is when things get tricky. As the trough-split feature leaves the area 93L will be left under an area of very weak steering currents, and the last several runs of the GFS have kept it in the Gulf of Mexico for up to 5 days before going anywhere. However the latest 12z run that just came out takes it through the channel and into SW Florida.

This is where I need to mention one of the things to remember about models is that they jump around a lot with the track. I expect they will be particularly jumpy in this situation because when you get weak steering currents there are usually many possible tracks. The main factor determining when 93L can move north again after getting into the GOM is the trough off the US east coast. If it digs far enough south, a track through the weakness to the NE like the latest GFS shows is possible. If the trough stays further to the north like most of the other models are showing, a more westward track would ensue under the pull of the westward flow on the south side of the subtropical high over the NW gulf coast. Right now it's still a bit too far out, and all we know for sure is that 93L will be moving NW in the vicinity of the Yucatan and eventually into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The bottom line here is we're going to have a tropical disturbance moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico in 2-3 days that has a shot at developing, and everyone along the gulf coast should keep an eye on it. Hopefully if it gets drawn north it can provide some much-needed rain for somebody, which is not a bad thing at all.

There is another area to keep an eye on, and that is the tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic, which will probably be forgotten amongst the excitement close to home. The wave has mid-level turning with it with scattered moderate convection. Some organization is possible over the next few days as the TUTT lifts out and upper winds become marginally favorable. Don't write it off just because it's early in the year. Climatology is a poor excuse to ignore the current situation. At any rate this wave will not be affecting any land areas anytime soon.

We shall see what happens!

Invest 93L Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)



Invest 93L model tracks:






The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 18 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

18. RENONV
5:29 AM GMT on June 27, 2009
Another excellent and informative update Levi.

Thanks Lenny
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
17. EastWindMiami
9:41 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Wow, very good video! Simple, yet higly informative. I know I am keeping close tabs on that trough, I have the feeling it'll develop by Mon-Tues. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
16. homelesswanderer
9:19 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Thanks Levi. Great update. On the model where you showed it stalling it seemed everyone got rain but us. Ok little sigh comin' on. But if that's the price to pay for no tropical disturbances I'll take it. :) Our ridge of doom is supposed to move out but then right back over us by Tuesday. So I don't see 93L headed this way if it stalls it as you say. As far as "climatology" goes I couldn't agree more! Last year all I heard was Ike would never come into the GOM because no storm ever did from where he was at. Our local met literally had a screaming fit about it and said we all needed to calm down. Because "It will NOT come into the gulf!" Lol. Personally I think they need to let him drink again. He was so much nicer when he was on the bottle. LOL. Ok. I guess that was bad but geesh! Well thanks again. I'll keep an eye on all of it. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
15. seflagamma
8:02 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Quoting Levi32:
Wow thanks Gamma lol. I'd never recorded myself before so when I first heard my voice I freaked out! I'm just glad I'm making any sense at all lol.


LOL, no one likes to hear their own voice the first few times they hear it because it never sounds like you think you sound. but after awhile you get use to it! :o)

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
14. ajcamsmom2
7:39 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Awesome update...I agree with gamma 100%...Thanks for letting me know it was here...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
13. InTheCone
7:20 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Nice work Levi! I hope you are enjoying your nice long days/nights - I've made it as close to you as Soldotna. Loved it up there - in the Summer!!!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
12. Levi32
6:26 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Wow thanks Gamma lol. I'd never recorded myself before so when I first heard my voice I freaked out! I'm just glad I'm making any sense at all lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
11. seflagamma
6:01 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Levi,

Oh my goodness, I came home for lunch break today to take Harley out
and I remember to sign on the the house computer so I could see your video.
I cannot see them at work.

Oh my goodness, you are fantastic!
You have a great voice and give the information in such a way
I can understand it along with your graphics.

I am just smiling at how good you are at this!

You've come a long way in the past 3-4 years!

Great Job,

looking forward to seeing more of these.

Gamma
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
10. Levi32
5:48 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Thanks OGal, Thermo, Storm, Mobile, and CC =)

The 12z GFDL and 12z HWRF are out. They both have NE paths similar to the 12z GFS, through the channel and into SW Florida. I'm thinking this is a little too far east and there will be more interaction with the NE Yucatan. The GFDL has a nest grid error and loses the center of the system immediately, but you can still see it on the big map.

NHC bumps up development potential to "medium":

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261740
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO HONDURAS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY SATURDAY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SPREAD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
9. CCstormer
5:43 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
The videos are definitely appreciated from the non-met crowd.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
8. MobileMob
5:42 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Great update !!! Keep up the great work !
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
6. thermoclined
5:04 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Awesomw update. You have been right on ther money with this one so far. Keep up the good work
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. OGal
5:03 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Levi, you are totally amazing. I love your latest feature. When you explain the entire situation it is so much easier to understand. Thank you, thank you!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. Levi32
5:02 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Quoting scottsvb:
Levi...really good job on your video. 1st time I watched your vids so not sure if you've done more before..but I assume you have. Anyways real nice job and good reasoning...we have simular but different ideas but still I like it.

Only thing I would suggest is waiting for the main 12z runs and 0z runs if you do videos @ night.


Thanks. This is my 5th video. I started last week when I got the inspiration to try daily tropical video updates. The morning is really my only time to do videos, and if things happen at night I can just post a text update.

Thanks 456 and Gamma.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. scottsvb
4:59 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Levi...really good job on your video. 1st time I watched your vids so not sure if you've done more before..but I assume you have. Anyways real nice job and good reasoning...we have simular but different ideas but still I like it.

Only thing I would suggest is waiting for the main 12z runs and 0z runs if you do videos @ night.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2. seflagamma
4:56 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Levi,

great update. thank you. looks like we will be watching two systems this weekend.

Appreciate you taking the time to update us.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. Cavin Rawlins
4:53 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Not finish reading but nice update
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 18 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

Recommended Links