93L to threaten eastern Gulf of Mexico

By: Levi32 , 4:46 PM GMT on June 27, 2009

Update 8pm eastern time:

During the course of the afternoon, a new area of convection has developed near and east of Cozumel, Mexico in association with Invest 93L. Visible imagery indicates that the tropical wave axis has become more amplified near or over the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The loops are also showing rotation with the area of convection but it looks mostly mid-level, and CIMSS maps show the 850mb vorticity maximum to already be well inland continuing on a NW course over the NE Yucatan. The upper low over the Bay of Campeche is backing away slower than expected and this is causing problems for 93L. The proximity of the upper low is causing the mid-upper steering flow to be towards the north, while the low-level flow is still to the NW. This is causing the mid-level circulation to try to run north but the surface center wants to deviate more to the west. That's a fancy way of saying 93L is getting severely inhibited by vertical wind shear, and is vertically skewed because of it. The new mid-level circulation may attempt to pull in the surface trough but only if convection persists, which it may not, and surface-feature domination seems to have been the rule so far with this system.

So for now we still have a very disorganized tropical disturbance that will be emerging in the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, where there will be a more favorable environment for organization as the upper low gets out of the way. I will continue to monitor the situation.

Tropical Tidbit from 12:30pm EDT Saturday, June 27, 2009:

Turn up the volume, and click HD if quality is too low:



Invest 93L remains disorganized this morning without a closed low-level circulation. The location of the center was previously thought to be south of western Cuba earlier this morning before visible imagery came out, but it is just the mid-level circulation that came from the east Pacific and started this whole thing. The low-level center is actually somewhere south of Cozumel, Mexico, just east of the Yucatan if not already over the coast. The reason this didn't develop yesterday was because the energy didn't get bundled and consolidated because the mid-level low didn't interact very well with the tropical wave. So today as the mid-level circulation starts to weaken and move north the low-level center will have a chance to organize. We'll see convection try to cluster around it today, but it likely won't be able to do much while it moves over the NE Yucatan today and tonight.

Once north of the Yucatan though, is when we really have to watch this. The upper low in the Bay of Campeche currently shearing 93L a little bit from the south is going to continue moving west and allowing the upper ridge to build over the system, ventilating it and providing a low wind shear environment. SSTs in the gulf are very warm, and the only inhibiting factor I can think of is the moderate amount of dry air present in the western gulf. I still think this has a decent shot at becoming a tropical depression sometime in the next 2 days and possibly TS Anna. Right now I'd like to see a closed circulation develop and get the system into the gulf before speculating any more on the potential intensity. Keep in mind this could also dissipate just as easily as it could get named.

The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF still take this through the Yucatan channel and into Florida but they are initialized too far east. This isn't going through the channel. My idea over the last few days has been for this to move over the Yucatan and end up north of it near 88W 23N, and the 12z GFS that just came out has caught on and shifted west more in line with this track. The track forecast after that becomes more tricky. The upper high over Texas will be retrograding westward over the next 3 days and won't be able to grab the system and pull it into the western gulf, so I'm not really concerned about that possibility. However anyone from eastern Louisiana to south Florida could be staring this one in the face early next week. I'm currently leaning towards a scenario where 93L drifts around north of the Yucatan under weak steering currents and then eventually gets pulled north or northeast by the upper trough over the eastern US. This new trough coming in is going to be much more zonal (flatter) than previous troughs, as the pattern isn't quite as amplified as it was. The exact movement will depend on several things such as the strength of the system, the timing of the trough, and how deep the trough gets.

So the bottom line is that we still have an unorganized tropical disturbance that will be moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days with favorable conditions for development. Until or if we get classified system we can't speculate too much on strength and exact landfall locations.

We shall see what happens!

Invest 93L Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)



Invest 93L model tracks:






The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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25. shoreacres
4:38 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
Evening, Levi,

Clean, understandable postings and a really nice format. Enjoying it more every day!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
24. condesa
4:32 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
Hi from Mexico City-
I'm enjoying your blog and posts. Thanks!
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23. GetReal
1:24 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
Levi sorry it has taken this long to respond, but I am working this weekend. ATT I believe that there are way to many variables at play here. The entire gulf coast, especially from Se Texas to Tampa have to keep an eye on this.

I am leaning more towards a more NW then north end game... How far west??? Dunno yet....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
21. Levi32
11:20 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Quoting GetReal:
Levi I see that the 93L wave axis is now along the east coast of the Yucatan. There has been a recent blow up of convection south of Cozumel and Cancun, there is still no visible signs of a LLC forming, i.e. no signs of any banding starting.

IMO 93L will remain weak and disorganized, and will emerge in the southern GOM a little further west than earlier expected, just north of Merida, near 90W. The wave axis has continued on that WNW path, and I look for a more NW move. I believe that the second frontal boundry coming down the east coast will go zonal, common for summer, and miss this system.


GR does that mean you think this is a west gulf problem? I see that as a possibility if the system stays this weak north of the Yucatan.

Quoting thermoclined:
Is it me or is the ull west of 93L moving more nw than the predicted sw movement? If so, wouldn't this tend to pull it more northward than westward?


Yeah it is, movement of these upper features can be difficult to forecast, they get really pesky sometimes and sit around moving very slowly.

Um...it could give a more northward push, but the upper low is far enough away still that it's more likely to just cause problems with 93L's organization, which actually causes it to move more westward due to its weak nature.
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20. thermoclined
7:40 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Is it me or is the ull west of 93L moving more nw than the predicted sw movement? If so, wouldn't this tend to pull it more northward than westward?
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19. GetReal
7:36 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Levi I see that the 93L wave axis is now along the east coast of the Yucatan. There has been a recent blow up of convection south of Cozumel and Cancun, there is still no visible signs of a LLC forming, i.e. no signs of any banding starting.

IMO 93L will remain weak and disorganized, and will emerge in the southern GOM a little further west than earlier expected, just north of Merida, near 90W. The wave axis has continued on that WNW path, and I look for a more NW move. I believe that the second frontal boundry coming down the east coast will go zonal, common for summer, and miss this system.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
18. Levi32
7:06 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Thanks all =)

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Good blog Levi :)

What's the lowest pressure you've ever seen at Homer, AK?


Oh I dunno exactly it was many years ago and I was too little to care lol. I know we've had some sub-950mb systems pass almost directly over us. They get systems that strong more often out west in the Aleutians. In mid-winter systems with pressures in the 930s are not uncommon.
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16. chessrascal
6:37 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Awesome vid thanks
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15. lavinia
5:45 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
That was excellant Levi!

I'm a newbie and it even made sense to me. Thanks.
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14. seflagamma
5:28 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Levi,

great job once again!

Thank you.
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13. homelesswanderer
5:26 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Thanks Levi.
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12. Drakoen
5:24 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Very nice Levi!
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11. Levi32
5:23 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Quoting cyclonebuster:
Hey Levi have you seen my working tunnel model?


LOL I didn't know you were still around advertising that thing =P

Nice to see you still around.

Thanks all for taking the time to visit :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
10. cyclonebuster
5:23 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
What do you mean if? You just saw that they do. LOL!
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9. ajcamsmom2
5:19 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Awesome update Levi32...
Cyclonebuster...Maybe you should talk with Osbama about your tunnel model...If it works, that would be great and if it doesn't, just think of all the jobs you would be creating while they are being built...Think oceanfastructure....
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7. cyclonebuster
5:06 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
a href="" target="_blank">Link
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6. cyclonebuster
5:03 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Hey Levi have you seen my working tunnel model?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. mermaidlaw
4:59 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Thanks Levi! Another very good video.
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3. Levi32
4:56 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Hey all to anyone who watches my video this morning I apologize lol I messed up a lot....only got 4 hours of sleep last night.
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2. mobal
4:56 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Thanks for your thoughts Levi!
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1. Cavin Rawlins
4:56 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
I guess you and I are on the same page. Nice update.
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About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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