Invest 93L hanging by a thread

By: Levi32 , 5:30 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

Tropical Tidbit from 1:00pm EDT Sunday, June 28, 2009:

As usual it is Sunday meaning I don't have time for a video.

Invest 93L has gotten pretty beat up overnight, taking heavy hits from the upper low in the western Gulf of Mexico, which didn't move SW as forecasted by the models several days ago. This is shearing 93L and cutting off its moisture supply, which is leaving all the convection east of the main low-level circulation which is now north of the Yucatan. Ok so it got sheared to death? Not really....it's still like I said yesterday shear was not what prevented this from developing. It is now, but that's only because the system was divided to begin with. The mid-level low that started this whole thing in the western Caribbean didn't interact well with the tropical wave, and continued north while the wave continued west. This divided up the energy, and you must get energy consolidated and bundled into a compact area before you can get development. You can still see the division with at least 4 or 5 different low to mid-level swirls on visible satellite imagery this morning.

Is there any hope for 93L? I have to say yes. It's going to get downplayed to death, and I agree that the odds are very much in favor of this just fizzling away, but I must stress the importance of watching things like this in the Gulf of Mexico. There is still a strong area of low-level vorticity, and as the upper low to the west moves over Mexico there will be about a 48-hour window from Monday to Wednesday of marginally favorable upper-level conditions before shear increases in the northern gulf due to a front. There is some dry air in the western gulf associated with the upper low which could end up being the last deciding factor in 93L's death, but do not write this off yet. You can't underestimate what can happen with troughs in the Gulf of Mexico. It always means trouble, and just because something doesn't develop doesn't mean it didn't mean to cause trouble. These things are always looking for ways to cause mischief.

Ok so I've got nothing really exciting to track but where will it go anyway? Well the track forecast in the gulf got all messed up because of a couple things. For one, my forecast was based on the upper low in the western gulf backing SW and being out of the picture by now. Two, I didn't expect 93L to be so weak right now. The forecast for this getting north of the Yucatan near 90W verified nicely, but now we have a very uncertain future in the gulf. If the system remains weak and dissipates, it will likely continue WNW, and some models even take it WSW into the Bay of Campeche. If somehow 93L reorganizes to the east like Alberto in 2006 did, a more northerly component to its movement is likely, and the stronger the system is the more towards the north it goes. The first front coming down into the SE US now won't be able to pick this up, but due to weak steering currents 93L may still be around in 3-5 days, when a 2nd front might, depending on where 93L is at that time and how strong it is, if it's even alive. Hypothetically at this time 93L could end up anywhere from Mexico to Florida if it survives.

So the bottom line here is we have a very weak and possibly dissipating disturbance entering the Gulf of Mexico, that could go nearly anywhere depending on how the situation evolves. Watch it, really. Don't let this go. If for nothing else watch it for a chance of rain in your area.

Elsewhere....still monitoring tropical waves coming off Africa in the eastern Atlantic. Some of the models continue to try to develop some of these, and they should be watched due to marginally favorable conditions.

We shall see what happens!

Invest 93L Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)



Invest 93L model tracks:






The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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7. Levi32
9:46 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Thanks all for taking the time to visit =)

I've been monitoring a possible reformation of 93L's center since early this morning. The main circulation off the NW Yucatan is dissipating and heading off towards the WSW, and a new low-level spin to the east of it has been trying to become dominant all day today near 22N 88W. This is right where the 850mb vort max is, although vorticity has been weakening in the last several hours.
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6. oakland
7:54 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
This time of year I don't write anything with potential off. Excellent synopsis, BTW.
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5. ajcamsmom2
7:47 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
I haven't written it off...
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4. homelesswanderer
7:43 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Thanks Levi. Some rain in our area would be great! :)
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3. Chicklit
6:20 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
So it really isn't dead yet?
Interesting. Thanks L.
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2. Cavin Rawlins
5:59 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Thank you Levi, some are writing it off due to impatience. I really needed someone to be more reasonable. Thanks again.
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1. mermaidlaw
5:35 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Thanks for the update Levi!
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About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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