MAweatherboy1's Blog

January Thaw Coming to a Close

By: MAweatherboy1, 12:13 AM GMT on January 16, 2014

It's been a busy few weeks for me, between working through the college process and preparing for midterm exams (the last of which I took today), so I haven't had much time for blogging lately. Frankly, there hasn't been much interesting weather to blog about lately. Ever since the storm early in January that brought up to two feet of snow for parts of the north shore of MA (though most areas were under 18", with many under 12"), we have been at least temporarily pushed out of the wintry pattern. We're in a January thaw, with today being a fifth consecutive day of well above normal temperatures. The snow cover has vanished, even into areas farther north. Technically, many areas are above normal for snowfall this season, but the trend has been for light to moderate snowfalls followed soon after by warm weather that quickly cuts down the snowpack. The thaw we are in will likely continue into the weekend, but temperatures will be moderating back to more seasonal levels, with upper 40s and low 50s replaced by upper 30s and low 40s, with temperatures near freezing returning by around Monday. As far as precipitation/snowfall goes, the next few days look mainly dry as we dodge a couple storms. One strung out system will pass well east of us tomorrow, keeping us dry. Another system or two will try to get going over us Saturday and Sunday. These days will provide us with a better chance for rain or snow showers, but any snow accumulations through Monday would be light, with western zones having the best shot at 1-3" of snowfall. Eastern areas will probably be too warm for snow even if a bit of light precip does work in this weekend.
The next real storm on the horizon comes along Tuesday-Wednesday of next week. It's too far out to get into much detail, but as it stands now the GFS has been fairly consistent on keeping the storm far enough out to sea to avoid impacts, while the last couple of ECMWF runs have shown a moderate (~6-10") snowfall event over that time. There is some potential here for a decent storm. It could even be a situation similar to the storm early this month where most of the moisture stays south but we achieve a moderate snowfall due to high snow ratios that could be in place as cold air moves in. Despite this, I would say the out to sea scenario is most likely at this time. Lots of time to watch this one. I will be providing updates as necessary. Here's just a quick look at the 12z ECMWF's total snowfall through 192 hours, with most (though not all) of this occurring next Tuesday-Wednesday.

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And here's the same map for the GFS, with almost no snow for the next 8 days:

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Thanks for reading; check back for updates!

MAweatherboy1


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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About MAweatherboy1

Average 20 year old weather nerd. Plymouth State University Meteorology, Class of 2018. NOAA Hollings scholar. Summer 2016 intern at NWS Boston.