NCHurricane2009's Blog

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #26

By: NCHurricane2009, 11:25 AM GMT on June 30, 2014

...MONDAY JUNE 30 2014 7:20 AM EDT...
Surface low Invest 91-L located east of Florida and north of the western Bahamas has seen a decrease in thunderstorm activity during the overnight. However conditions are expected to remain favorable for tropical cyclone formation over the next few days. See special feature section below for additional details which includes an updated forecast on 91-L.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_29_2014_2345Z_zps1b438c42.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1930Z-released WPC analysis from last evening.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_29_2014_2345Z_Thermo_zps53e76a1d.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

...SPECIAL FEATURE...SURFACE LOW INVEST 91-L...
Current prognosis...Invest 91-L continues on a south to south-southwest track while orbiting around a low-level ridge in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (red zig-zag line to the left of 91-L in the above atmo chart). Early morning infrared satellite animation suggests the center is currently at 28.5N-78.2W. Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased since the previous update but remain confined to the south half of the circulation due to northerly wind shear on the east side of the eastern US upper ridge (blue H to the left of 91-L in the above atmo chart).

Atmospheric Outlook for the Forecast Period...Eastern US upper ridge will continue to shift east ahead of upper trough and surface 979 mb frontal cyclone currently pushing in from the north-central US...which will reduce the wind shear and increase upper outflow supportive of tropical development as the upper ridge arrives overhead of Invest 91-L. 91-L is currently trapped between northeastern Gulf ridge to its west which has recently merged with 1025 mb ridge to the north supported by convergence on west side of NW Atlantic upper trough...and a 1027 mb subtropical Atlantic ridge to its east. Initial motion of 91-L will be south and then a hook to the west as it orbits around the aforementioned 1025 mb ridge. Then as the NW Atlantic upper trough shifts east...the 1025 mb ridge supported by its west side will also shift east...allowing for a northward and eventual northeastward track for 91-L along the west side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge and out ahead of incoming north-central US upper trough and surface 979 mb frontal cyclone. With 91-L being currently far south in relation to the north-central US weather system...91-L will likely have to wait for the next trough behind it to take it out to sea. This updated forecast goes up through the timeframe where 91-L gets left behind by the current north-central US upper trough.

Thermodynamic Outlook for the Forecast Period...Sea surface temps in the environment of Invest 91-L are in the 28 to 30 deg C range...very supportive for tropical cyclone formation. Lastest water vapor imagery shows 91-L remaining in a moist environment.

24 Hr Forecast (0600Z July 1)...30 mph max sustained wind tropical depression centered at 27N-79W. Still expecting system to be under northerly shear but becoming better organized as the shear reduces. Forecasting additional southern and western squalls to fire up over the Florida peninsula and northwestern Bahamas.

48 Hr Forecast (0600Z July 2)...40 mph max sustained wind tropical storm centered at 28.7N-79.5W. Expecting system to be better organized and more symmetrical as upper ridge shifts overhead and allows for favorable anticyclone overhead of system Forecasting western squalls over Florida Peninsula and far northwestern Bahamas.

72 Hr Forecast (0600Z July 3)...50 mph max sustained wind tropical storm centered at 30.7N-79.5W. Forecasting squalls to be just offshore of the southeastern US coast.

96 Hr Forecast (0600Z July 4)...65 mph max sustained wind tropical storm centered at 32.7N-78.5W. Forecasting northwestern squalls to reach eastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #25A (Special Update)

By: NCHurricane2009, 2:57 PM GMT on June 29, 2014

...SUNDAY JUNE 29 2014 10:58 AM EDT...
Surface low Invest 91-L has moved further south than previously forecast on this blog. Latest visible satellite imagery this morning shows well-organized bands of thunderstorms in the south half of the circulation and therefore I am anticipating tropical cyclone formation later today or tonight. Therefore I am releasing this special update this morning to update my forecast (to account for the initial more southward position)...with plans for a full blog update later today or tonight.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...SURFACE LOW INVEST 91-L...
Current prognosis...Since the previous discussion a low-level ridge in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (marked as 1021 mb to the left of 91-L in the atmo chart of discussion #25 and currently at 1022 mb) has pushed the circulation of 91-L further south than previously anticipated on this blog. Visible satellite animation suggests the center is currently at 30N-77.5W with well organized bands of thunderstorms in the south half of the circulation. Some of these bands are expected to arrive in the northwestern Bahamas later today as the system continues its southward track. Meanwhile thunderstorms in the north half of the circulation continue to be limited due to northerly wind shear on the east side of the eastern US upper ridge.

Atmospheric Outlook for the Forecast Period...Aformetioned upper ridge is expected to shift east ahead of upper trough and surface frontal cyclone pushing in from the western US...which will reduce the wind shear and increase upper outflow supportive of tropical development as the upper ridge arrives overhead of Invest 91-L. 91-L is currently trapped between 1022 mb northeastern Gulf ridge to its west..1025 mb ridge to its north supported by west side of NW Atlantic upper trough...and 1028 mb subtropical Atlantic ridge to its east. Initial motion of 91-L will be south and then a hook to the west as it orbits around the NE Gulf ridge which will be weakening and merging northeastward with the 1025 mb ridge to the north. Then as the NW Atlantic upper trough shifts east...the 1025 mb ridge supported by its west side will also shift east...allowing for a northward and eventual northeastward track for 91-L along the west side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge and out ahead of incoming western US upper trough and surface frontal cyclone. Previous thinking was that the current western US trough would take 91-L northeast out to sea...but with the current further south position of 91-L this system may have to wait for the next trough to take it out to sea. This updated forecast goes up through the timeframe where 91-L gets left behind by the current western US trough.

Thermodynamic Outlook for the Forecast Period...Sea surface temps in the environment of Invest 91-L are in the 28 to 30 deg C range...very supportive for tropical cyclone formation. Lastest water vapor imagery shows 91-L remaining in a moist environment.

24 Hr Forecast (1200Z June 30)...40 mph max sustained wind tropical storm centered at 28.5N-77.5W. Still expecting system to be under northerly shear but becoming better organized as the shear reduces. Forecasting southern squalls to affect northwestern Bahamas.

48 Hr Forecast (1200Z July 1)...50 mph max sustained wind tropical storm centered at 28.5N-79W. Forecasting western squalls to reach Florida east coast and persist in northwestern Bahamas.

72 Hr Forecast (1200Z July 2)...60 mph max sustained wind tropical storm centered at 30N-79.5W. Expecting system to be better organized and more symmetrical as upper ridge shifts overhead and allows for favorable anticyclone overhead of system. Forecasting western squalls to be just offshore of Georgia and NE Florida.

96 Hr Forecast (1200Z July 3)...75 mph max sustained wind hurricane centered at 31.5N-79.5W. Forecasting northwestern swualls to reach South Carolina and southern North Carolina coasts.

120 Hr Forecast (1200Z July 4)...75 mph max sustained wind hurricane centered at 32.5N-78.5W while taking a slowing northeastward track while getting left behind by trough. Forecasting northwestern squalls to persists over South Carolina and southern North Carolina coasts.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #25

By: NCHurricane2009, 5:40 PM GMT on June 28, 2014

...SATURDAY JUNE 28 2014 1:40 PM EDT...
As suspect during the previous discussion...a frontal boundary low has formed offshore of the Carolinas and has potential to become a tropical cyclone. See special feature section below for additional details on this developing situation...which includes a forecast.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_28_2014_1215Z_zpsf868de41.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1200Z and 1336Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_28_2014_1215Z_Thermo_zps4276b4a4.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

...SPECIAL FEATURE...SURFACE LOW INVEST 91-L...
Current prognosis...Since the previous discussion the upper ridges over the north-central and southeastern United States have merged into one upper ridge axis (blue zig-zag line to the left of 91-L in the above atmo chart). A long frontal boundary stretches across the United States and into the western Atlantic for several hundred miles...with an upper trough over the western United States supporting a 997 mb frontal cyclone over the Dakotas and upper trough over the northwestern Atlantic supporting a couple of frontal depressions offshore of Canada. Our main feature...surface low Invest 91-L currently offshore of the Carolinas...has formed along the frontal boundary with the support of split flow upper divergence between westerlies at the base of the northwest Atlantic upper trough and northerlies on the east side of the eastern US upper ridge. Visible satellite imagery shows a 1016 mb surface low pressure spin centered at 32.5N-78W with a decent area of thunderstorms nearby but sheared southward from the center due to the northerly wind shear on the east side of the aforementioned upper ridge.

Atmospheric Outlook for the Forecast Period...Aformetioned upper ridge is expected to shift east ahead of 997 mb frontal cyclone and western US upper trough...which will reduce the wind shear and increase upper outflow supportive of tropical cyclone formation as the upper ridge arrives overhead of Invest 91-L. 91-L is currently trapped between 1027 mb surface ridge to the north (supported by conergence on west side of NW Atlantic upper trough) and 1029 mb subtropical Atlantic ridge to the east. Currently forecast a slow southward motion in the near term as the surface ridge to the north gains a bit more strength and as the surface low will have a tendency to regenerate into the heavier area of thunderstorms to the south. In the longer term as the NW Atlantic upper trough shifts east...the surface ridge to the north supported by the west side of the upper trough will also shift east...allowing for a northward and eventual northeastward track for 91-L along the west side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge and out ahead of incoming western US upper trough and surface frontal cyclone.

Thermodynamic Outlook for the Forecast Period...Sea surface temps in the environment of Invest 91-L are in the 28 to 30 deg C range...very supportive for tropical cyclone formation. Above thermo chart shows 91-L in a moist environment.

24 Hr Forecast (1200Z June 29)...35 mph max sustained wind tropical depression centered at 32N-78W. Still expecting system to be under northerly shear.

48 Hr Forecast (1200Z June 30)...45 mph max sustained wind tropical storm centered at 31.5N-79W. Still expecting system to be under northerly shear but becoming better organized as the shear reduces.

72 Hr Forecast (1200Z July 1)...50 mph max sustained wind tropical storm centered just offshore of South Carolina at 32.2N-79.2W. Forecast the weather to be biased offshore as system under light northerly shear.

96 Hr Forecast (1200Z July 2)...50 mph max sustained wind tropical storm making landfall in the Cape Fear region of North Carolina moving north-northeast...centered at 34N-78.2W. Expecting system to be better organized and more symmetrical as upper ridge shifts overhead and allows for favorable anticyclone overhead of system.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #24

By: NCHurricane2009, 4:22 AM GMT on June 27, 2014

...FRIDAY JUNE 27 2014 12:20 AM EDT...
For the Atlantic basin...watching the frontal boundary currently stretched across the southern United States and waters offshore of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada...particularly the segment of frontal boundary located offshore of the Carolinas where the upper ridges currently over the southeastern and north-central United States are forecast to merge into a favorable anticyclone overhead. Currently the CMC computer model forecasts tropical cyclone formation offshore of the Carolinas beginning in 72 hours. The European (ECMWF) model also shows low pressure formation offshore of the southeastern United States...while the GFS and NAVGEM currently forecast no significant activity.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_27_2014_0115Z_zps24522f5d.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0000Z and 0133Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_27_2014_0115Z_Thermo_zpsce2b6a34.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #23

By: NCHurricane2009, 11:27 AM GMT on June 26, 2014

...THURSDAY JUNE 26 2014 7:27 AM EDT...
Thunderstorms over the southern Caribbean...southern Central America...and adjacent Eastern Pacific waters have decreased as expected as unfavorable upper northwesterlies on the east side of an expanding Mexico upper ridge are beginning to invade from the northwest. Therefore the Atlantic tropics remain quiet.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_26_2014_0115Z_zps8aa5cccc.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0000Z and 0124Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_26_2014_0115Z_Thermo_zps0773d79e.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #22

By: NCHurricane2009, 12:37 PM GMT on June 25, 2014

...WEDNESDAY JUNE 25 2014 8:35 AM EDT...
Thunderstorms over the southern Caribbean...southern Central America...and adjacent Eastern Pacific waters persist with the support of polewared upper outflow on the west flank of a Caribbean upper ridge. However computer models continue to predict over the next few days that the upper ridge currently over Mexico will expand while supporting a strong Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone...with the favorable upper winds currently over the southern Caribbean becoming replaced by unfavorable upper northwesterlies on the east flank of the Mexico upper ridge. Therefore currently not expecting tropical cyclone development from the southern Caribbean over the next few days.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_25_2014_0115Z_zps30895d6e.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0000Z and 0124Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_25_2014_0115Z_Thermo_zps0a3614cf.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #21

By: NCHurricane2009, 11:55 AM GMT on June 24, 2014

...TUESDSAY JUNE 24 2014 7:55 AM EDT...
Thunderstorms over the southern Caribbean...southern Central America...and adjacent Eastern Pacific waters have increased over the last 24 hours due to polewared upper outflow on the west flank of a Caribbean upper ridge that has expanded in the wake of the weakening southeastern Gulf of Mexico-western Cuba upper vortex. However computer models currently predict over the next few days that the upper ridge currently over Mexico will expand while supporting a strong Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone...with the favorable upper winds currently over the southern Caribbean becoming replaced by unfavorable upper northwesterlies on the east flank of the Mexico upper ridge. Therefore currently not expecting tropical cyclone development from the southern Caribbean over the next few days.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_24_2014_0045Z_zps16644999.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0000Z and 0125Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_24_2014_0345Z_Thermo_zpsc6493522.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #20

By: NCHurricane2009, 7:35 PM GMT on June 22, 2014

...SUNDAY JUNE 22 2014 3:35 PM EDT...
As forecast during the previous discussion...a shortwave upper trough impulse on the west side of the 992 mb deep-layered vortex currently offshore of Newfoundland is diving southeast across the eastern United States. This upper trough has increased the westerly vertical shear offshore of Florida and the upper divergence ahead of the upper trough has produced a new 1010 mb frontal low offshore of the Carolinas that has absorbed the surface low offshore of Florida. Even though thunderstorms have flared up in association with the new 1010 mb frontal low...westerly vertical shear is too high for tropical development and the frontal low is forecast to accelerate eastward with the upper trough while remaining a non-tropical feature supported by divergence ahead of the upper trough.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_22_2014_1415Z_zps4567bacb.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1200Z and 1329Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_22_2014_1415Z_Thermo_zpsc5375cfb.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #19

By: NCHurricane2009, 5:30 PM GMT on June 21, 2014

...SATURDAY JUNE 21 2014 1:30 PM EDT...
The National Hurricane Center continues to mention a small 1014 mb surface low located just east of the Florida Atlantic coast in their Tropical Weather Outlook. This surface low currently persists with the support of upper divergence at the northeast corner of the upper vortex centered near western Cuba and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However the surface low is under northerly wind shear on the east side of of upper ridging currently dominating the eastern United States...and is later expected to be under westerly shear as a shortwave upper trough impulse on the west side of the 1003 mb deep-layered vortex over Newfoundland dives southeast. Therefore tropical cyclone development from this feature is not expected.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_21_2014_1145Z_zps096c2e7d.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1200Z and 1324Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_21_2014_1145Z_Thermo_zps78905a65.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #18

By: NCHurricane2009, 6:09 AM GMT on June 20, 2014

...FRIDAY JUNE 20 2014 2:10 AM EDT...
Even though upper divergence persists in the southern Caribbean Sea ahead of an upper vortex located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and western Cuba...shower and thunderstorm activity in the southern Caribbean has weakened due to the departure of the nearby tropical wave into Central America and southeastern Mexico without the formation of a surface low in its place. Therefore all southern Caribbean activity has been cancelled as a special feature on this blog.

Elsewhere...the National Hurricane Center has introduced a small 1018 mb surface low located near the east coast of Florida in their Tropical Weather Outlook. This surface low has formed with the support of upper divergence at the northeast corner of the upper vortex centered near western Cuba and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However surface pressures are high due to upper convergence on the east side of upper ridging currently dominating the eastern United States...and therefore tropical cyclone formation is not expected from this feature.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_20_2014_0245Z_zps7f4033d7.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0000Z and 0124Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_20_2014_0245Z_Thermo_zps090214c6.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #17

By: NCHurricane2009, 3:41 AM GMT on June 19, 2014

...WEDNESDAY JUNE 18 2014 11:45 PM EDT...
Shower and thunderstorm flare ups still continue in the southern Caribbean Sea as a surface tropical wave interacts with upper divergence ahead of a cut-off upper vortex that has retrograded from Cuba and the Bahamas and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The persistence of this activity appears to have re-built an upper ridge due to the latent heat release of the thunderstorms. With the retrograding of the upper vortex and reformation of an upper ridge...upper winds have trended more favorably for tropical development and therefore I have re-introduced this system as a special feature on this blog. See special feature section below for additional details.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_18_2014_2045Z_zps492f50a8.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1916Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_18_2014_2045Z_Thermo_zpsc2efa4f8.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

...SPECIAL FEATURE...SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE...
Current prognosis...As stated in the intro of the previous and current discussion...disturbed weather currently located just east of Nicaragua and Honduaras in the southern Caribbean is being driven by surface convergence of a tropical wave currently moving into Central America interacting with upper divergence around the rim of a cut-off upper vortex. In the above atmo chart...the tropical wave is marked by a red-dashed line and "TW" notation...and the upper vortex is marked by a blue L just due north of the tropical wave. The persistence of the thunderstorms appears to have generated a Caribbean upper ridge via latent heat release as marked by a blue-zig-zag line located just east of the tropical wave. The formation and expansion of this upper ridge maybe partly why the upper vortex has been pushed to a westward retrograding motion from Cuba/Bahamas and into the SE Gulf of Mexico over the last 24 hours.

Atmospheric Outlook for the Forecast Period...Current assumption is that southeastern Gulf of Mexico upper vortex will weaken while becoming squeezed between expanding Caribbean upper ridge (supported by latent heat release of the disturbance's thunderstorms) and upper ridge ovr the eastern United States (supported by hot air mass propped up by warm air advection ahead of frontal systems). As the upper vortex weakens while the Caribbean upper ridge expands over the disturbance...this will reduce the current unfavorable levels of wind shear.

Thermodynamic Outlook for the Forecast Period...Sea surface temps across the Caribbean are in the 27 to 29 deg C range...favorble for tropical cyclone development. Current assumption is Caribbean upper ridge will be sustained or be expanding thru the forecast period...which will support upper divergence and hence rising motion over the area that will keep the environment moist.

24 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 19)...Tropical wave to leave behind area of disturbed weather while crossing Central America. Currently predicting thunderstorms to persist in the southern Caribbean in upper divergence southeast of cut-off upper vortex and west of Caribbean upper ridging. Also currently forecasting the formation of a small surface tropical low in the thunderstorms just east of Nicaragua in the vicinity of 83W-14N.

48 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 20)...Same dynamics as 24 Hr forecast...with surface low predicted to become better organzied in the vicinity of 83W-14N.

72 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 21)...Forecast tropical cyclone formation just east of Nicaragua in the vicnity of 83W-14N.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #16

By: NCHurricane2009, 12:09 AM GMT on June 18, 2014

...TUESDAY JUNE 17 2014 8:09 PM EDT...
Shower and thunderstorm flare ups continue in the southern Caribbean Sea as a surface tropical wave interacts with split flow upper divergence on the southwestern quadrant of a cut-off upper vortex that has developed over Cuba and the Bahamas. However the formation of this cut-off upper vortex is further east than forecast a few days ago which makes the westerly vertical shear on the south side of the upper vortex excessively high for tropical development in the Caribbean. In addition...their is no computer model support suggesting development in the Caribbean. Therefore the Atlantic tropics remain quiet at this hour.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_17_2014_2045Z_zps6ed14fd1.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1920Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_17_2014_2045Z_Thermo_zps50d5be9f.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #15

By: NCHurricane2009, 3:44 AM GMT on June 17, 2014

...MONDAY JUNE 16 2014 11:45 PM EDT...
Concerning the tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea...upper-level winds have become less favorable than previously forecast with the eastern Gulf of Mexico cut-off upper trough pushing southeast into the Caribbean and de-amplifying southern Caribbean upper ridging. In addition...all computer model support suggesting development from these tropical waves has diminished. Therefore the Caribbean Sea tropical waves have been cancelled as special features on this blog.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_16_2014_2045Z_zps36cfb097.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1926Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_16_2014_2045Z_Thermo_zpscbaa55ea.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #14

By: NCHurricane2009, 11:53 PM GMT on June 15, 2014

...SUNDAY JUNE 15 2014 7:54 PM EDT...
Today's cycles of the GFS computer model runs show a lower potential of tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean earlier predicted for later this upcoming week. However cycles of the NAVGEM computer model within the last 48 hours have intermittently suggested some potential...and thunderstorms in the south-central Caribbean Sea have increased this afternoon. Therefore I continue to maintain the tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea as special features on this blog. See special feature section below for additional details.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_15_2014_2045Z_zpsa2f9b4ab.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1927Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_15_2014_2045Z_Thermo_zps514e8627.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

...SPECIAL FEATURE...CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVES...
Current prognosis...A surface tropical wave is currently located in the central Caribbean Sea in the vicinity of 75W longitude. Another surface tropical wave is currently located in the eastern Caribbean in the vicinity of 65W longitude. Both tropical waves are marked with red-dashed lines and "TW" notation in the above atmospheric features chart. The position of these waves is about 5W longitude faster than predicted for this timeframe yesterday...and my forecast below has been updated to reflect this. Upper outflow provided by a southern Caribbean upper ridge (marked by blue-zig-zag line in above atmo chart) is supporting shower and thunderstorm activity that both tropical waves have the potential to interact with. After waning yesterday...these thunderstorms have flared up this afternoon with additional support provided by upper divergence on southeast side of upper trough (marked by blue-dashed line in above atmo chart) extending southward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorm flare ups in the southern Caribbean will assist in tropical development if the associated latent heat release aids in expanding the southern Caribbean upper ridge.

Atmospheric Outlook for the Forecast Period...Southern portion of upper trough over the eastern United States and eastern Gulf of Mexico soon expected to become a cut-off upper vortex that becomes quasi-stationary over the eastern Gulf and or Florida through the forecast period. Upper vortex also expected to be weakening while not having the opportunity to link with energy from mid-latitude upper troughs. Favorable southern caribbean upper ridge mentioned in above prognosis is expected to expand northward in the wake of the weakening upper vortex during the forecast period.

Thermodynamic Outlook for the Forecast Period...Sea surface temps across the Caribbean are in the 27 to 29 deg C range...favorble for tropical cyclone development. Outflow of Caribbean upper ridge has provided rising motion over the Caribbean that has moistened the environment.

24 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 16)...Forecast western tropical wave to be making landfall across Central America in the vicinity of 83W longitude. Western tropical wave likely to re-enforce southern Caribbean thunderstorms and therefore the formation of a broad surface low is possible in the next 24 hours. Eastern tropical wave forecast to be in the vicinity of 70W.

48 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 17)...Forecast western tropical wave to have left behind disturbance. Forecast eastern tropical wave to be in the vicinity of 77W longitude potentially enhancing southern Caribbean thunderstorms and broad surface low.

72 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 18)...Forecast eastern tropical wave to have either been consumed by southern Caribbean broad surface low...or alternatively escape the disturbance while moving over Central America.

96 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 19)...Forecast broad surface low in the southern Caribbean to become increasingly organized and consolidated while developing under an expanding southern Caribbean upper ridge.

120 Hr Forecat (1800Z June 20)...Forecast tropical cyclone formation in the southern Carisbbean at a location just east of Nicaragua.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #13

By: NCHurricane2009, 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2014

...SATURDAY JUNE 14 2014 1:30 PM EDT...
The GFS computer model continues to persisently predict favorable upper winds developing over the Caribbean Sea during the course of the next week. A pair of tropical waves entering the eastern Caribbean Sea have the potential to interact with these favorable upper winds and therefore have been upgraded to special features on this blog. See special feature section below for additional details.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_14_2014_1215Z_zpscdc4985c.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1200Z and 1336Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_14_2014_1215Z_Thermo_zpsb55eb565.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms are currently not functional...therefore refer to the thermodynamics chart from previous discussion #12. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

...SPECIAL FEATURE...EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVES...
Current prognosis...A surface tropical wave is currently located in the eastern Caribbean Sea in the vicinity of 65W longitude. Another surface tropical wave is currently lcoated just east of the Lesser Antilles island chain in the vicinity of 55W longitude. Both tropical waves are marked with red-dashed lines and "TW" notation in the above atmospheric features chart. Currently both tropical waves are inactive due to sinking air provided by upper convergence on the west side of mid-Atlantic upper trough (blue-dashed line to the right of both tropical waves). Upper outflow provided by a southern Caribbean upper ridge (blue-zig-zag line to the left of both tropical waves in the above atmo chart) is supporting shower and thunderstorm activity that both tropical waves have the potential to interact with later this week.

Atmospheric Outlook for the Forecast Period...Southern portion of upper trough over the eastern United States and eastern Gulf of Mexico expected to become a cut-off upper vortex over the eastern Gulf during the next 36 Hours. Upper vortex forecast to be quasi-stationary and weakening thru the forecast period while not having the opportunity to link with energy from mid-latitude upper troughs. Favorable southern caribbean upper ridge mentioned in above prognosis is expected to expand northward in the wake of the weakening upper vortex during the forecast period.

Thermodynamic Outlook for the Forecast Period...Sea surface temps across the Caribbean are in the 27 to 29 deg C range...favorble for tropical cyclone development. Outflow of forecast Caribbean upper ridge should provide rising motion over the Caribbean that will allow environment to be moist.

24 Hr Forecast (1200Z June 15)...Forecast both tropical waves to be in the eastern Caribbean Sea in the vicinity of 60W and 70W longitude. Expect southern Caribbean upper ridge to continue supporting weather in the southern Caribbean.

48 Hr Forecast (1200Z June 16)...Forecast both tropical waves to be in the eastern Caribbean Sea in the vicinity of 65W and 75W longitude. Expect southern Caribbean upper ridge to continue supporting weather in the southern Caribbean.

72 Hr Forecast (1200Z June 17)...Forecast both tropical waves to be in the central Caribbean Sea in the vicinity of 70W and 80W longitude. From this forecast position...the tropical waves have the potential to enhance southern Caribbean weather supported by southern Caribbean upper ridge.

96 Hr Forecast (1200Z June 18)...Forecast both tropical waves and active southern Caribbean weather to begin merging into a broad surface low pressure area in the south-central Caribbean supported by outflow of southern Caribbean upper ridge. A portion of the western of the two tropical waves forecast to leave behind the disturbance while crossing Central America.

120 Hr Forecat (1200Z June 19)...Forecasting a broad surface tropical low supported by outflow of southern Caribbean upper ridge at a location east of Central America

144 Hr Forecast (1200Z June 20)...Forecasting a broad surface tropical low supported by outflow of expanding southern Caribbean upper ridge in the southern Caribbean at 82W longitude just east of Nicaragua.

168 Hr Forecast (1200Z June 21)...Forecast tropical cyclone formation with center located just east of Nicaragua and Honduras.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #12

By: NCHurricane2009, 11:54 AM GMT on June 13, 2014

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #12

...FRIDAY JUNE 13 2014 8:00 AM EDT...
The GFS computer model continues to predict favorable upper winds over the Caribbean Sea. However this prediction has shifted further into the future into the timeframe that is now about one week away. GFS currently forecasts that a fragment of the upper troughing over the eastern United States...Cuba...and the Caribbean to become cut-off as a gradually weakening upper vortex. Unlike the previous forecasts where the cut-off retrogrades westward...the weakening upper vortex is now forecast to shift east and pass just north of the Caribbean. The forecast calls for favorable upper ridging to build over the Caribbean as the upper vortex weakens. If development was to occur in this scenario...it will most likely be associated with the tropical wave currently just east of the Lesser Antilles.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_13_2014_0015Z_zpsd12193db.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0000Z and 0128Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_13_2014_0015Z_Thermo_zps8d0eea8c.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #11

By: NCHurricane2009, 5:57 AM GMT on June 12, 2014

...THURSDAY JUNE 12 2014 2:00 AM EDT...
The GFS computer model continues to predict favorable upper winds over the Caribbean Sea in the timeframe that is currently 6 days away. A fragment of the upper troughing over the eastern United States...Cuba...and the western Caribbean is expected to become cut-off into a gradually weakening upper vortex. As the upper ridge over the southwestern US amplifies in warm air advection ahead of forecast frontal systems...this will cause the forecast upper vortex to also retrograde westward around the upper ridge. In turn this will allow the favorable upper ridge currently over the southeastern Caribbean to amplify northwestward in the wake of the retreating upper vortex. Therefore the tropical wave currently east of the Lesser Antilles has development potential when it reaches the Caribbean Sea over the next 6 days.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_12_2014_0015Z_zps17c0220e.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0000Z and 0127Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_12_2014_0015Z_Thermo_zps94488d3a.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #10

By: NCHurricane2009, 3:47 AM GMT on June 11, 2014

...TUESDAY JUNE 10 2014 11:48 PM EDT...
The GFS computer model currently predicts favorable upper winds over the western Caribbean Sea next week that could support tropical cyclone activity. In the meantime...tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin is not expected over the course of this week.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_10_2014_2345Z_zpsce0bacae.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1903Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_10_2014_2345Z_Thermo_zps0e789d2f.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #9

By: NCHurricane2009, 2:28 AM GMT on June 10, 2014

...MONDAY JUNE 9 2014 10:30 PM EDT...
Tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin not expected during the next week.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_09_2014_2345Z_zps71604d50.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1936Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_09_2014_2315Z_Thermo_zpsc5b86041.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #8

By: NCHurricane2009, 9:54 PM GMT on June 08, 2014

...SUNDAY JUNE 8 2014 5:55 PM EDT...
Atlantic tropics are quiet after disturbance Invest 90-L in the southern Gulf of Mexico has dissipated.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_08_2014_1815Z_zpsdc1e6ce9.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_08_2014_1815Z_Thermo_zpsfb643104.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #7

By: NCHurricane2009, 12:11 PM GMT on June 07, 2014

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #7

...SATURDAY JUNE 7 2014 8:15 AM EDT...
Tropical disturbance Invest 90-L in the southern Gulf of Mexico has made landfall in east-central Mexico from the Bay of Campeche this morning. Due to land interaction and increasingly unfavorable upper level winds...tropical cyclone formation is no longer possible.

Computer models agree that the 1012 mb frontal low currently located off the coast of the Carolinas (see atmospheric features chart below) is expected to intensify as it zips eastward from its present location to Bermuda in the next 48 Hours. However it is expected to remain non-tropical throughout the intensification.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_07_2014_0845Z_zps9512e670.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0600Z and 0723Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_07_2014_0845Z_Thermo_zps4fe36ebb.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #6

By: NCHurricane2009, 11:27 AM GMT on June 06, 2014

...FRIDAY JUNE 6 2014 7:27 AM EDT...
Tropical disturbance Invest 90-L in the southern Gulf of Mexico has become better organized within the last 24 hours and has the chance to become the first tropical cyclone of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season before unfavorable upper level winds move in on Sunday. This system continues to be mentioned in the 5-day and 48 Hour Atlantic Basin National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook. Tne only computer model that supports 90-L presently is the CMC which suggests a tropical low moving westward into the east coast Mexico within the next couple of days. See special feature section below for additional details on Invest 90-L...including my updated forecast on this system which predicts tropical cyclone formation within the next 24 hours.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_05_2014_2345Z_zps9427ba1e.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0000Z and 0130Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_05_2014_2345Z_Thermo_zps0e6c678f.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

...SPECIAL FEATURE...GULF OF MEXICO DISTURBANCE INVEST 90-L...
Current prognosis...This system is currently structured as a consolidating 1004 mb surface low in the Bay of Campeche with thunderstorms becoming concentrated just east of the center...which is why it has a shot at becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours. Upper outflow support for this system comes from upper ridge over the Yucatan and western Central America (blue-zig-zag line located just south of Invest 90-L in the above atmospheric features chart). However the upper ridge remains suppressed to the south of the system as it encounters resistance from northern upper ridge over the US Gulf coast (see blue-zig-zag line in above atmo chart to the north of 90-L). Therefore this disturbance remains in some westerly shear on the north side of the Yucatan/Central America upper ridge...which is why thunderstorms are struggling to build on the west side of disturbance's 1004 mb surface low.

Atmospheric Outlook for the Forecast Period...Shortwave upper trough over the north-central US (blue-dashed line over the eastern Dakotas in above atmo chart) will arrive into the eastern US during next 24 hrs...while another shortwave arrives behind in the western US. US Gulf coast upper ridge will be enforced by low-level warm air advection of surface frontal systems associated with the shortwaves. Strength of Gulf coast upper ridge will keep Yucatan/west Central America upper ridge suppressed just to the south of 90-L...and therefore expect 90-L to remain under westerly shear on the north side of the Yucatan/west Central America upper ridge. Wind shear to increase to hostile levels by 48 Hrs (Sunday) after eastern US shortwave leaves behind a cut-off upper trough dominating the northeastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. 1029 mb Atlantic surface ridge extends all the way to the northern Gulf of Mexico as shown by red zig-zag line in above atmo chart. The weak northern Gulf extension of this surface ridge is expected to slowly push this system westward thru the forecast period.

Thermodynamic Outlook for the Forecast Period...Other than temperatures at 26 deg C minimums in the northeatern Gulf...sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico are above the threshold for tropical cyclone development...especially where the 1004 mb center of the disturbance is located. Dry air presently not an issue for this disturbance.

24 Hr Forecast (0000Z June 7)...Due to the consolidation of thunderstorms just east of the low pressure center at the present...currently forecast this system to have become a weak tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche located at 20N 95.5W by the 24 Hr timeframe. Sheared-off tropical moisture to the east could cause some additional rains over the Yucatan peninsula of SE Mexico.

48 Hr Forecast (0000Z JUne 8)...Forecast weak tropical cyclone to dissipate under hositle westerly shear at a location of 20N 96.5W. Even after dissipation...sheared-off tropical moisture to the south and east could cause some additional rains over the Yucatan peninsula of SE Mexico.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #5

By: NCHurricane2009, 5:21 AM GMT on June 05, 2014

...THURSDAY JUNE 5 2014 1:21 AM EDT...
Enhanced thunderstorm activity persists in the southern Gulf of Mexico. This system continues to be mentioned in the 5-day and 48 Hour Atlantic Basin National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook...and is now classified as Invest 90-L on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy. The latest GFS computer model run has cut back on suggesting tropical cyclone formation while now only showing a weak surface low over the Yucatan and western Caribbean by 180 Hours. In the meantime the CMC model currently shows a surface low/weak tropical cyclone tracking NW from the Bay of Campeche and into the east coast of Mexico in the 72 to 96 Hour timeframe...while the Euro (ECMWF) has a tropical cyclone tracking northward across the central Gulf of Mexico after 180 Hours. This system continues to be a special feature on this blog with the assumption that it will become the first tropical cyclone of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. See special feature section below for my current genesis forecast.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_04_2014_2345Z_zpsf794e67d.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0000Z and 0130Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_04_2014_2345Z_Thermo_zps1e3c5375.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

...SPECIAL FEATURE...GULF OF MEXICO DISTURBANCE INVEST 90-L...
Current prognosis...As predicted during the last few discussions...this disturbance has consolidated toward favorable upper ridge over the Yucatan and western Central America (blue-zig-zag line located just south of Invest 90-L in the above atmospheric features chart). However the upper ridge is not quiet as anticyclonic or as far north as I thought it would be by this time...perhaps as it encounters resistance from northern upper ridge over Texas and the southeastern US (see blue-zig-zag line in above atmo chart over these regions). Therefore this disturbance is under some westerly shear on the north side of the Yucatan/Central America upper ridge. Surface trough of the disturbance has consoliated into a 1005 mb tropical low over the Bay of Campeche and has absorbed the remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Boris which was coming in from the south. Surface convergence of 1005 mb low and outflow of Yucatan/Central America upper ridge continue driving the active weather in the region.

Atmospheric Outlook for the Forecast Period...A 1032 mb mid-latitude Atlantic surface ridge and strong mid-latitude Pacific surface ridge currently flank North America. Shortwave upper troughs and associated surface frontal systems will continue diving across North America in between the ridges. This pattern will favor a general northward track toward the ridge weaknesses associated with the frontal systems for any tropical cyclone that forms from this system.

Thermodynamic Outlook for the Forecast Period...Other than temperatures at 26 deg C minimums in the northeatern Gulf...sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico are above the threshold for tropical cyclone development...especially where the 1005 mb center of the disturbance is located. Dry air presently not an issue for this disturbance.

24 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 5)...Forecast no change from present structure. Therefore expect Bay of Campeche surface low and assoicated weather to persist under outflow of western Central America/Yucatan upper ridge. Development rate expected to be slow due to continued westerly shear on north side of upper ridge and due to broad and un-consolidated nature of Bay of Campeche surface low.

48 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 6)...Currently not making any changes to this forecast point from my previous forecast. Therefore this means I currently forecast the dynamics to be the same as in the above 24 Hr forecast point. GFS computer model still forecasting a shortwave upper trough to arrive in eastern US during this timeframe...with another shortwave arriving behind it in the western US. Latest GFS run suggests southern US upper ridge will be enforced by low-level warm air advection of surface frontal systems associated with the shortwaves. If the current GFS is correct about the strength of the southern US upper ridge...this will suppress the western Central America/Yucatan upper ridge to a further south location such that the westerly shear on the north side of western Central America/Yucatan upper ridge will be stronger than previously thought for this timeframe. If this scenario does indeed occurr during this timeframe I may drop this system as a special feature.

72 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 7)...Currently not making any changes to this forecast point from my previous forecast. Therefore this means I currently forecast Eastern US shortwave to leave behind cut-off upper trough in northeastern Gulf of Mexico...which will increase westerly shear across the Bay of Campeche surface low...but not enough to inhibit tropical cyclone formation with the prior thunderstorm latent heat release of this disturbance having enforced the favorable upper ridge which will protect it from some of the shear. However if latest GFS computer model run proves to be accurate for this timeframe...the strength of the cut-off upper trough will in fact be too much for tropical cylone formation. Therefore if the current GFS scenario does indeed occurr during this timeframe I may drop this system as a special feature.

96 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 8)...Currently not making any changes to this forecast point from my previous forecast. Therefore this means I currently forecast tropical cyclone formation of Bay of Campeche surface low by this timeframe. Due to the westerly shear...this will likely displace the tendency for tropical cyclone formation eastward toward the eastern Bay of Campeche/NW Yucatan Peninsula region. However if latest GFS computer model run proves to be accurate for this timeframe...the strength of the northeastern Gulf cut-off upper trough mentioned in the above 72 Hr forecast point will be too much for tropical cylone formation. Therefore if the current GFS scenario does indeed occurr during this timeframe...the forecast tropical cyclone formation will not be possible.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #4

By: NCHurricane2009, 2:32 AM GMT on June 04, 2014

...TUESDAY JUNE 3 2014 10:32 PM EDT...
Enhanced thunderstorm activity persists in the Gulf of Mexico extending southward to Tropical Storm Boris in the Eastern Pacific. This system has been re-introduced into the 5-day and 48 Hour Atlantic Basin National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook. The GFS computer model continues to be the most aggressive in suggesting tropical cyclone formation from this system over the course of the next week. This system continues to be a special feature on this blog with the assumption that it will become the first tropical cyclone of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. See special feature section below for my current genesis forecast.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_03_2014_2045Z_zps56112d44.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1920Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_03_2014_2045Z_Thermo_zps5f231ce9.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

...SPECIAL FEATURE...GULF OF MEXICO DISTURBANCE...
Current prognosis...Within the last 24 hours a shortwave upper trough/surface frontal 1001 mb depression... marked in upper-left corner of above atmo chart...has amplified western Mexico upper ridge into Texas (see blue-zig-zag line over Texas in above atmo chart). As a result...the upper vortex formerly part of this disturbance has retrograded westward around the Texas upper ridge and out of the picture into Mexico. This leaves behind the surface trough of the disturbance...with axis of showers and thunderstorms shifting westward in the wake of the upper vortex and becoming more co-located with surface trough. Upper ridge over the eastern part of the disturbance (blue-zig-zag line over eastern Gulf/NW Caribbean in above atmo chart) is also shifting westward in the wake of the upper vortex. Surface convergence provided by the surface trough and outflow of upper ridge continue driving the active weather in the region. It continues to be forecast that by 1800Z June 4 (24 Hrs from now) that the upper ridge will consolidate into an anticyclonic center over the Yucatan Peninsula...with the northern portion of the surface trough diminshing while the southern portion thrives toward the outflow of the anticyclonic center. However...the dissipation of of the northern portion of the surface trough has already occurred...with the southern portion consolidating toward a 1005 mb low over Mexico's Bay of Campeche coast (marked in above atmo chart) and toward the low pressure field of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Boris.

Atmospheric Outlook for the Forecast Period...The 1020 mb ridge over the western Atlantic continues shifting east and will merge with 1034 mb ridge over the Atlantic (both marked with red Hs in the above atmo chart). As such...surface ridges over the mid-latitude Atlantic and mid-latitude Pacific will flank North America thru the forecast period...with shortwave upper troughs and associated surface frontal systems diving across North America in between the ridges. This pattern will favor a general northward track toward the ridge weaknesses associated with the frontal systems for any tropical cyclone that forms from this system.

Thermodynamic Outlook for the Forecast Period...Other than some minor 26 deg C minimums in the northern Gulf...sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico are above the threshold for tropical cyclone development. Dry air associated with upper vortex no longer obstructing west side of disturbance now that it has retrograded out of the picture as noted in above current prognosis section. However dry air is expected to again invade from the west in association with a cut-off upper trough forecast to develop beginning in 72 Hrs.

24 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 4)...Favorable upper ridge is forecast to concentrate into an anticyclonic center over the Yucatan Peninsula of SE Mexico. Surface trough in the Gulf should continue to consolidate toward the the anticyclonic center of the upper ridge where upper outflow will be maximal. Surface trough will also be enforced by the northward travel of Tropical Storm Boris or its remnant low pressure field. Showers and storms forecast to concentrate over the southern Gulf...SE Mexico...western Central America..and adjacent East Pacific...while supported by the surface trough and upper ridge.

48 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 5)...Forecast no change from 1800Z June 4 forecast

72 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 6)...Southern extent of eastern US shortwave upper trough no longer shown to be in the Gulf of Mexico in latest GFS computer model run...and therefore wind shear in the Bay of Campeche not forecast to be as high as previously thought. Therefore with favorable dynamics persisting from 1800Z June 4 to 1800Z June 6...their maybe enough time for an organizing surface low over the Bay of Campeche to form by this time.

96 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 7)...Eastern US shortwave forecast to leave behind cut-off upper trough in northeastern Gulf of Mexico...which will increase westerly shear across forecast Bay of Campehce surface low...but not enough to inhibit tropical cyclone formation with the prior thunderstorm latent heat release of this disturbance having enforced the favorable upper ridge which will protect it from some of the shear.

120 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 8)...Same dynamics as June 8 forecast...with forecast Bay of Campeche surface low becoming a tropical cyclone. Due to the westerly shear...this will likely displace the tendency for tropical cyclone formation eastward toward the eastern Bay of Campeche/NW Yucatan Peninsula region.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #3

By: NCHurricane2009, 12:35 AM GMT on June 03, 2014

...MONDAY JUNE 2 2014 8:35 PM EDT...
Enhanced thunderstorm activity persists in the Gulf of Mexico extending southward to newly formed tropical depression two-E in the Eastern Pacific. Although this system has been removed from the 5-day and 48 Hr Atlantic Basin National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook...the GFS computer model continues to be the most aggressive in suggesting gradual tropical cyclone formation from this system over the course of the next week. Because tropical depression two-E appears to be heading northward toward southeast Mexico and eventually the Gulf of Mexico in current satellite loops..I continue to maintain this system as a special feature with the assumption that the eventual remnants of 2-E will help this system become the first tropical cyclone of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. See special feature section below for my current genesis forecast.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_02_2014_1745Z_zpsb9c33bbf.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1925Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_02_2014_1745Z_Thermo_zpsaed75024.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

...SPECIAL FEATURE...GULF OF MEXICO DISTURBANCE...
Current prognosis...Disturbance continues to have upper vortex structure with surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico extending southward across southeast Mexico and into eastern Pacific tropical depression 2-E (upper vortex marked by blue L...surface trough marked by red dashed line in the above atmo chart). Extensive upper ridge persists east of the disturbance and extends northward across eastern North America (this upper ridge marked by blue zig-zag line in above atmo chart). Showers and thunderstorms supported by divergence between upper vortex and upper ridge...and supported by outflow of upper ridge... extend from the central Gulf of Mexico southward across the NW Caribbean...SE Mexico...western Central America...and into tropical depression 2-E.

Atmospheric Outlook for the Forecast Period...The 1025 mb ridge over eastern US coast will shift east and merge with 1033 mb ridge over the Atlantic (both marked with red Hs in the above atmo chart). As such...surface ridges over the mid-latitude Atlantic and mid-latitude Pacific will flank North America thru the forecast period...with shortwave upper troughs and associated surface frontal systems diving across North America in between the ridges. This pattern will favor a general northward track toward the ridge weaknesses associated with the frontal systems for any tropical cyclone that forms from this system.

Thermodynamic Outlook for the Forecast Period...Other than some minor 26 deg C minimums in the northern Gulf...sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico are above the threshold for tropical cycloen development. Dry air associated with the upper vortex is suppressing the west half of the disturbance...but this should relax by 24 and 48 Hrs when the upper vortex is forecast to retrograde westward out of the region. However dry air is expected to again invade from the west in association with a cut-off upper trough forecast to develop beginning in 96 Hrs.

24 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 3)...A shortwave upper trough/surface frontal system across NW US will amplify western Mexico upper ridge...causing upper vortex to begin retrograding westward around the upper ridge and into Mexico. More favorable upper ridge is forecast to expand westward in the wake of the upper vortex and over the disturbance. Still forecast a western Gulf surface trough to be present extending southward across southeast Mexico to tropical depression 2-E. Axis of showers/thunderstorms from the Gulf to 2-E forecast to shift westward and align with surface trough as upper vortex retrogrades out of the way.

48 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 4)...Favorable upper ridge concentrates into an anticyclonic center over the Yucatan Peninsula of SE Mexico. Forecast the northern portion of surface trough in the western Gulf to diminish while the southern portion over the Yucatan/Bay of Campeche region stays enforced by the upper ridge outflow...and also by the northward travel of tropical depression 2-E's remnant low pressure field. Showers and storms forecast to concentrate over the southern Gulf...SE Mexico...western Central America..and adjacent East Pacific...while supported by the surface trough and upper ridge.

72 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 5)...Forecast no change from 1800Z June 4 forecast

96 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 6)...Eastern US shortwave upper trough displaces the thunderstorms and upper anticyclonic ridge eastward to a location over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...Yucatan peninsula...western Cuba...and NW Caribbean.

120 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 7)...Eastern US shortwave leaves behind low-amplitude cut-off upper trough over the western Gulf. This is different from the GFS computer model run 24 hrs ago which depicted a cut-off upper low...and therefore the westerly shear for this timeframe is now forecast to be higher. For now...I still forecast the system to begin assuming classic early-season tropical cyclone characteristics while having thunderstorms thrive east of the center under the upper ridge...with the lowest surface pressure supported by divergence between the cut-off upper trough and upper ridge.

144 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 8)...Same dynamics as June 7 forecast...however with wind shear from the cut-off upper trough dropping as I currently forecast the upper ridge to amplify against the upper trough due to latent heat release of thunderstorms.

168 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 9)...Same dynamics as June 8 forecast...with lowest surface pressure becoming a tropical cyclone just east of Cancun and near the western tip of Cuba. This genesis point is 24 Hrs later and further southeast compared to the previous genesis forecast due to the change in the forecast cut-off upper feature as noted above in the 120 Hr forecast point. Previously expected a track northward toward southeastern United States while steered by cut-off upper trough and next shortwave upper trough/surface frontal system in the mid-latitudes merging with the cut-off. Now because of the later and further southeast forecast genesis...it is possible this system misses the ride north with aforementioned shortwave upper trough and will have to wait for a ride north on the shortwave upper trough/surface frontal system after that one.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #2

By: NCHurricane2009, 3:02 AM GMT on June 02, 2014

...SUNDAY JUNE 1 2014 11:00 PM EDT...
Enhanced thunderstorm activity persists in the Gulf of Mexico extending southward to tropical disturbance Invest 93-E in the Eastern Pacific. This system has been introduced into the 5-day and 48 Hr National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook for the Atlantic basin. The GFS computer model continues to be the most aggressive in suggesting gradual tropical cyclone formation from this system over the course of the next week. I have upgraded this system to a special feature with the assumption that it will eventually become the first tropical cyclone of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. See special feature section below for my current genesis forecast.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_01_2014_2045Z_zpsd32be8e7.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo Jun_01_2014_2045Z_Thermo_zps1ea75062.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

...SPECIAL FEATURE...GULF OF MEXICO DISTURBANCE...
Current prognosis...Since the previous discussion the upper vortex associated with the disturbance has dove southward from Texas/Louisiana and into the western Gulf of Mexico while moving around a western Mexico upper ridge. This position has made the upper vortex vertically stacked with the surface trough of the disturbance (the upper vortex and surface trough are both marked with a blue L and red-dashed line in the above atmospheric features chart). Their is also an extensive upper ridge just east of the disturbance from the western Caribbean northward across eastern North America...marked with a blue zig-zag line in the above atmospheric features chart. Outflow of the upper ridge...in addition to upper divergence between the the upper vortex and upper ridge...continues supporting an extensive area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of the surface trough.

Atmospheric Outlook for the Forecast Period...The 1028 mb ridge over eastern North America will shift east and merge with 1033 mb ridge over the Atlantic (both marked with red Hs in the above atmo chart). As such...surface ridges over the mid-latitude Atlantic and mid-latitude Pacific will flank North America thru the forecast period...with shortwave upper troughs and associated surface frontal systems diving across North America in between the ridges. This pattern will favor a general northward track toward the ridge weaknesses associated with the frontal systems for any tropical cyclone that forms from this system.

Thermodynamic Outlook for the Forecast Period...Other than some minor 26 deg C minimums in the northern Gulf...sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico are above the threshold for tropical cycloen development. Dry air associated with the upper vortex is suppressing the west half of the disturbance...but this should relax by 48 and 72 Hrs when the upper vortex is forecast to retrograde westward out of the region. However dry air is expected to again invade from the west in association with another cut-off upper vortex forecast to develop beginning in 120 Hrs.

24 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 2)...Disturbance continues to have upper vortex structure with surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico extending southward across southeast Mexico and into eastern Pacific disturbance Invest 93-E. Showers and thunderstorms supported by divergence between upper vortex and upper ridge...and supported by outflow of upper ridge...continuing to extend from the central Gulf of Mexico southward across the NW Caribbean...SE Mexico...western Central America...and into disturbance 93-E.

48 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 3)...A shortwave upper trough/surface frontal system across NW US amplifies western Mexico upper ridge...causing upper vortex to begin retrograding westward around the upper ridge and into Mexico. More favorable upper ridge expands westward in the wake of the upper vortex and over the disturbance. Still forecast a western Gulf surface trough to be present extending southward across southeast Mexico to Invest 93-E. Axis of showers/thunderstorms from the Gulf to Invest 93-E forecast to shift westward and align with surface trough as upper vortex retrogrades out of the way.

72 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 4)...Favorable upper ridge concentrates into an anticyclonic center over the Yucatan Peninsula of SE Mexico. Forecast the northern portion of surface trough in the western Gulf to diminish while the southern portion over the Yucatan/Bay of Campeche region stays enforced by the upper ridge outflow...and also by a northward fracture of 93-E's surface low pressure or northward travel of 93-E itself. Showers and storms forecast to concentrate over the southern Gulf...SE Mexico...western Central America..and adjacent East Pacific...while supported by the surface trough and upper ridge.

96 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 5)...No change from 1800Z June 4 forecast

120 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 6)...Eastern US shortwave upper trough displaces the thunderstorms and upper anticyclonic ridge eastward to a location over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...Yucatan peninsula...western Cuba...and NW Caribbean.

144 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 7)...Eastern US shortwave leaves behind cut-off upper low over the western Gulf. System forecast to begin assuming classic early-season tropical cyclone characteristics while having thunderstorms thrive east of the center under the upper ridge...with the lowest surface pressure supported by divergence between the cut-off upper low and upper ridge.

168 Hr Forecast (1800Z June 8)...Same dynamics as June 7 forecast...with lowest surface pressure emerging northward from Yucatan and becoming a tropical cyclone over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Expect a track northward toward southeastern United States while steered by cut-off upper low and next shortwave upper trough/surface frontal system in the mid-latitudes merging with the cut-off.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #1

By: NCHurricane2009, 3:18 AM GMT on June 01, 2014

...SATURDAY MAY 31 11:15 PM EDT...
Even though the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts about one hour from now...releasing my first discussion of the season due to enhanced thunderstorm activity currently in the Gulf of Mexico extending southward into the western Caribbean Sea. This activity is currently supported by split flow upper divergence between southerlies on the southeast flank of a cut-off upper vortex over the Texas/Louisiana area and mainstream upper westerlies to the south of the upper vortex. This split flow upper divergence also supports a surface trough across the Gulf of Mexico. The aforementioned upper vortex and surface trough are marked as a blue L and red-dashed line in the atmospheric features chart below.

Their are no signs of further organization in this activity...which is why I am not considering this system a special feature at this time. However over the course of the next week...what is currently tropical disturbance Invest 93-E in the Eastern Pacific is forecast to move northward across southeast Mexico and western Central America...eventually toward the Gulf of Mexico...where it could agitate the weather currently enhanced by the upper vortex further. The GFS computer model suggests tropical cyclone formation in the eastern Gulf from this scenario about 6 days from now...while no additional computer models show development.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo May_31_2014_2345Z_zps1ee865c9.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z, and the 1925Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
 photo May_31_2014_2345Z_Thermo_zpsb7c9e662.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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