NCHurricane2009's Blog

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #32A (Special Update)

By: NCHurricane2009, 11:50 PM GMT on June 26, 2015

...FRIDAY JUNE 26 2015 7:50 PM EDT...
I have stopped doing daily updates on this blog as the Atlantic tropics remain quiet. I will resume daily updates when the threat of tropical or subtropical cyclone activity returns to the Atlantic basin.

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #32

By: NCHurricane2009, 1:45 AM GMT on June 25, 2015

...WEDNESDAY JUNE 24 2015 9:45 PM EDT...
A small area of concentrated showers and thunderstorms located norhteast of the Bahamas has developed in association with the upper vortex currently just north of the Caribbean...supported by upper divergence between the northwestern quadrant of the upper vortex and the surrounding upper wind field. Even though upper winds are becoming more favorable for tropical development as this upper vortex weakens...the nearby surface trough that was moving into the eastern Bahamas has dissipated. Meanwhile the tropical wave currently moving through the eastern Caribbean has failed to trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms while passing through the eastern upper divergence of the upper vortex. And with no computer models forecasting development...tropical development is not expected by any weather associated with this upper vortex.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1934Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wunderground.com/hurricane. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #31

By: NCHurricane2009, 3:30 AM GMT on June 24, 2015

...TUESDAY JUNE 23 2015 11:30 PM EDT...
A surface trough currently moving into the eastern Bahamas has developed within the shower and thunderstorm activity just north of the Caribbean that was triggered by the upper vortex currently over Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) interacting with the surface tropical wave that has currently moved into the central Caribbean. However the shower and thunderstorm activity has considerably weakened this afternoon and evening as the surface trough and surface tropical wave have stopped interacting with the eastern divergence of the upper vortex while moving below the non-divergent region directly below the upper vortex. Watching to see if shower and thunderstorm activity will return when the tropical wave currently moving into the eastern Caribbean aligns with the eastern divergence of the upper vortex over the next day or so. However none of the computer models forecast tropical development from this upper vortex.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1925Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wunderground.com/hurricane. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #30

By: NCHurricane2009, 2:22 AM GMT on June 23, 2015

...MONDAY JUNE 22 2015 10:22 PM EDT...
A sprawling area of showers and thunderstorms has developed in the last 24 hours that has traveled northwestward from the waters east of the Lesser Antilles to now covering parts of the northern Lesser Antilles...Puerto Rico...and open western Atlantic. This area of disturbed weather has developed as the surface convergence of a tropical wave has interacted with upper divergence on the east side of a cut-off upper vortex (tropical wave and upper vortex are marked with red-dashed line and blue L in the atmospheric features chart below...respectively). As the upper vortex weakens over the next five days...upper winds could become more favorable for tropical development of this disturbance at a location north of the Caribbean and south of Bermuda. However none of the computer models currently forecast this system to develop...and surface pressures in the region are currently high (due to surface subtropical ridge marked by red-zig-zag line in the atmospheric features chart below) with no signs of a low-level circulation developing at this time.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1912Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wunderground.com/hurricane. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #29

By: NCHurricane2009, 1:25 AM GMT on June 22, 2015

...SUNDAY JUNE 21 2015 9:30 PM EDT...
The remnant surface low of former Tropical Storm Bill is entering the north Atlantic from the northeastern United States and therefore is no longer a flash flood threat to any land areas. The remnant low will gain strength as a non-tropical entity over the open north Atlantic while it continues to be supported by upper divergence on the east side of a shortwave upper trough (marked by blue-dashed line just west of Bill in the atmospheric features chart below).

It is quiet elsewhere across the Atlantic tropics...

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1927Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wunderground.com/hurricane. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #28

By: NCHurricane2009, 11:49 PM GMT on June 20, 2015

...SATURDAY JUNE 20 2015 7:49 PM EDT...
The remnant surface low of former Tropical Storm Bill is moving eastward across the Ohio Valley...mid-Atlantic...and southern New England regions of the United States while embedded in the westerlies on the north side of the Atlantic surface subtropical ridge (marked by red-zig-zag line in the atmospheric features chart below). The remnant low is maintaining strength due to supportive upper divergence on the east side of a shortwave upper trough (marked by blue-dashed line just west of Bill). The ground over the Ohio Valley region has recently become soaked from frequent rains along the stalled frontal boundary presently over this region...and Bill has recently merged with this front. Therefore main threat from Bill's remnants over the next couple of days will be flash flooding potential across West Virginia...northern Virginia...southeastern Pennsylvania...Maryland...Delaware...and New Jersey where flash flood watches are currently in effect from the National Weather Service.

It is quiet elsewhere across the Atlantic tropics...

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1932Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wunderground.com/hurricane. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #27

By: NCHurricane2009, 11:54 PM GMT on June 19, 2015

...FRIDAY JUNE 19 2015 7:55 PM EDT...
The remnant surface low of former Tropical Storm Bill is curving northeastward into southern Illinois from southeastern Missouri...and will curve eastward toward the Ohio Valley and northeastern United States while rounding the north side of the Atlantic surface subtropical ridge (marked by red-zig-zag line in the atmospheric features chart below). The remnant low is maintaining strength due to supportive upper divergence on the east side of a shortwave upper trough (marked by blue-dashed line just west of Bill). The ground over the Ohio Valley region has recently become soaked from frequent rains along the stalled frontal boundary presently over this region. Therefore main threat from Bill's remnants over the next couple of days will be flash flooding potential across southern Missouri...southern Illinois...southern Indiana...northern Kentucky...southern Ohio...West Virginia...southeastern Pennsylvania...Maryland...Delaware...and New Jersey where flash flood watches and warnings are currently in effect from the National Weather Service.

It is quiet elsewhere across the Atlantic tropics...

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1929Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #26

By: NCHurricane2009, 11:53 PM GMT on June 18, 2015

...THURSDAY JUNE 18 2015 7:54 PM EDT...
The remnant surface low of former Tropical Storm Bill is curving northeastward into Missouri and will curve eastward toward the Ohio Valley while rounding the north side of the Atlantic surface subtropical ridge (marked by red-zig-zag line in the atmospheric featuers chart below). The ground over the Ohio Valley region has recently become soaked from frequent rains along the stalled frontal boundary presently over this region. Therefore main threat from Bill's remnants over the next couple of days will be flash flooding potential across Missouri...Illinois...Indiana...and the Ohio Valley.

It is quiet elsewhere across the Atlantic tropics...

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1935Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #25

By: NCHurricane2009, 1:05 AM GMT on June 18, 2015

...WEDNESDAY JUNE 17 2015 9:05 PM EDT...
Even though the remnant low of Bill is currently moving into Oklahoma...it is still producing outer heavy rain bands across eastern Texas. The remnants of Bill will curve northeastward towards the Ohio Valley region while rounding the northwest side of the Atlantic surface subtropical ridge (marked by red-zig-zag line in the atmospheric featuers chart below). The ground is still soaked and rivers are still swollen over eastern Texas and the central US due to May's excessive central US rainfall...and the ground over the Ohio Valley region has recently become soaked from frequent rains along the stalled frontal boundary presently over this region. Therefore main threat from Bill's remnants over the next couple of days will be flash flooding potential across eastern Texas...eastern Oklahoma...Missouri...Illinois...Indiana...and the Ohio Valley where flash flood watches are currently in effect from the National Weather Service.

It is quiet elsewhere across the Atlantic tropics...

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1930Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #24

By: NCHurricane2009, 11:38 AM GMT on June 17, 2015

...WEDNESDAY JUNE 17 2015 7:40 AM EDT...
Since the previous discussion Bill has made landfall in eastern Texas as expected and is currently moving northward through eastern Texas. The final advisory from the National Hurricane Center was issued on Bill as it is now a weakening inland tropical depression. The remnants of Bill will curve northeastward towards the Ohio Valley region while rounding the northwest side of the Atlantic surface subtropical ridge (marked by red-zig-zag line in the atmospheric featuers chart below). The ground is still soaked and rivers are still swollen over eastern Texas and the central US due to May's excessive central US rainfall...and the ground over the Ohio Valley region has recently become soaked from frequent rains along the stalled frontal boundary presently over this region. Therefore main threat from Bill's remnants over the next couple of days will be flash flooding potential across eastern Texas...eastern Oklahoma...Missouri...Illinois...Indiana...and the Ohio Valley where flash flood watches are currently in effect from the National Weather Service.

It is quiet elsewhere across the Atlantic tropics...

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0600Z and 0730Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #23

By: NCHurricane2009, 4:52 AM GMT on June 16, 2015

...TUESDAY JUNE 16 2015 12:52 AM EDT...
Invest 91-L has become Tropical Storm Bill and will be making landfall in eastern Texas later today. The largest threat will be flash flooding from heavy rains from Bill and its remnants over the next few days for eastern Texas...eastern Oklahoma...parts of Missouri...northern Illinois...the southern Great Lakes region...and the Ohio Valley. See special feature section below for additional details on Bill. Visit www.nhc.noaa.gov for up to the minute lastest information on Bill including tropical storm warnings.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1930Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

...SPECIAL FEATURE...TROPICAL STORM BILL...
Current prognosis...Tropical surface low Invest 91-L moved northwestward away from its diminishing parent upper vortex in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and below an upper ridge in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico...allowing this system to further organize into a tropical storm in the low shear and enhanced upper outflow environment of this upper ridge. Maximum sustained winds measured by reconaissance aircraft are currently 50 mph and the storm has about another 12 hours to strengthen before it makes landfall in eastern Texas.

Atmospheric Outlook for the Forecast Period...This system is tracking northwestward and will curve northward into the central United States from eastern Texas...and then will curve northeastward into the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region while rounding the west side of the Atlantic surface subtropical ridge (marked by red zig-zag line in the above atmospheric features chart).

Thermodynamic Outlook for the Forecast Period...Thermodynamic conditions are favorable for additional strengthening of Bill before it makes landfall with sea-surface temperatures in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico above 26 deg C and with Bill well-embedded in a tropical moisture channel that has become established on the west side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge stretching all the way from the western Caribbean Sea thru the central and northeastern US.



Track Forecast...As of 0000Z earlier this evening Bill was about 1N and 0.5W off from where I predicted it would be...so my track forecast in the above graphic is a 1N and 0.5W adjustment of my previous. This track forecast is slightly east of the National Hurricane Center's and makes Bill make landfall sooner than previously anticipated.

Intensity Forecast...The current intensity forecast from the NHC is just slightly below my previous intensity forecasts. Even though Bill has been following my previous intensity forecasts...I agree with a downward adjustment and join the current NHC intensity forecast since Bill will be making landfall sooner.

Impact Forecast...My impact swath in the above forecast graphic is based on extrapolating the 10 PM CDT NHC tropical storm wind field along my forecast track for the portion of the track where Bill is a tropical storm. The ground is still soaked and rivers are still swollen over eastern Texas and the central US due to May's excessive central US rainfall. Moreover the ground over the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region has recently become soaked from frequent rains along the stalled frontal boundary presently over this region. Therefore main threat from Bill and its remnant low will be flash flooding in these regions as outlined in impact statement (c) in the above graphic. Widespread flash flood watches from the National Weather Service are currently in effect in these regions.

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #22

By: NCHurricane2009, 6:59 AM GMT on June 15, 2015

...MONDAY JUNE 15 2015 2:59 AM EDT...
A subtropical or tropical storm could form in the western Gulf of Mexico from disturbance Invest 91-L at any time as aircraft reconaissance from this past afternoon indicated storm force winds and the formation of a surface circulation. See special feature section below for additional details on this developing situation. Additional heavy weather is possible across Guatemala...Belize...and the Yucatan Peninsula of southeastern Mexico over the next 24 hours. Because this system is only 2 to 3 days from affecting eastern Texas and western Louisiana...tropical storm advisories could be hoisted for these areas should this system be upgraded later today.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0000Z and 0121Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

...SPECIAL FEATURE...TROPICAL LOW INVEST 91-L...
Current prognosis...As of 0000Z the National Hurricane Center TAFB analyzed the location of the 1007 mb surface low of Invest 91-L to be at 23N-91W. The surrounding shower and thunderstorm activity has become much better organized relative to 24 hrs ago...but this system maybe more subtropical than tropical as the surface low is currently stacked below its parent upper vortex. Because the 0000Z TAFB fix on Invest 91-L is 1N-0.5W off from where I predicted in the previous discussion...I have adjusted my track forecast points below by 1N-0.5W accordingly. I am maintaining the intensity forecast from the previous discussion since this system is already producing storm force winds according to last afternoon's aircraft reconaissance mission.

Atmospheric Outlook for the Forecast Period...This system is expected to track northwestward and then curve northward toward eastern Texas while rounding the west side of the Atlantic surface subtropical ridge (marked by red zig-zag line in the above atmospheric features chart). On this track...it will be escaping the weakening overhead upper vortex and move into more favorable upper winds below an adjacent upper ridge (presently marked by blue H over the Louisiana coast). As it moves away from its cold core upper vortex and below the warm core upper ridge...this will give opportunity for this system to look less subtropical and more tropical.

Thermodynamic Outlook for the Forecast Period...Conditions are favorable for development in the context of sea-surface temperatures with all of the Gulf of Mexico presently above 26 deg C. Regarding moisture...the only source of unfavorable dry air will be caused by upper convergence on the west side of the overheadupper vortex. However with the system already featuring a very expansive moisture field in relation to this dry air and with the upper vortex expected to continue to weaken...currently not expecting dry air to be an issue for this system's development.

24 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jun 16)...50 mph max sustained wind tropical storm centered in the western Gulf of Mexico at 25.5N-93.5W

48 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jun 17)...65 mph max sustained wind tropical storm making landfall on the eastern Texas coast centered at 28.7N-96W

72 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jun 18)...Remnant low centered over northeastern Texas at 32.5N-96.5W

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #21

By: NCHurricane2009, 6:46 AM GMT on June 14, 2015

...SUNDAY JUNE 14 2015 2:50 AM EDT...
The disturbance over the western Caribbean Sea and Yucatan peninsula of southeastern Mexico...supported by upper divergence on the southeastern flank of the upper vortex in the Gulf of Mexico...continues to become better organized and has been upgraded to Invest 91-L as noted in special update #20A. Upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable for development as this disturbance moves into the western Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours as the upper vortex weakens...and therefore their is a high chance of this system becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm. See special feature section below for additional details on this developing situation. Regardless of development...the Yucatan Peninsula of southeastern Mexico can expect heavier weather to conitnue to increase during the next 24 hours...and eastern Texas and western Louisiana can expect the arrival of enhanced tropical moisture by 72 to 96 hours (3 to 4 days).

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0000Z and 0128Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

...SPECIAL FEATURE...TROPICAL LOW INVEST 91-L...
Current prognosis...A surface low analyzed at 1007 mb by the National Hurricane Center TAFB is present over the Yucatan Peninsula of southeastern Mexico and is supported by upper divergence on the southeastern quadrant of an upper vortex in the Gulf of Mexico (marked by blue L in the above atmospheric features chart). Visible satellite imagery before sunset and current nighttime infrared satellite imagery show cyclonic turning in the low-level clouds around the surface low...but the thickest clouds containing showers and thunderstorms are biased to the eastern half of the circulation due to westerly shear caused by the upper vortex. Some of the heavy weather in the east half of the circulation has made landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula...and will continue to overspread the rest of the Yucatan as the surface low pressure center tracks northwest into the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours.

Atmospheric Outlook for the Forecast Period...The upper vortex in the Gulf of Mexico will be weakening thru the forecast period...reducing the vertical shear and allowing this system to progressively become better organized. This system is expected to track northwestward and then curve northward toward eastern Texas while rounding the west side of the Atlantic surface subtropiacl ridge (marked by red zig-zag line in the above atmospheric features chart).

Thermodynamic Outlook for the Forecast Period...Conditions are favorable for development in the context of sea-surface temperatures with all of the Gulf of Mexico presently above 26 deg C. Regarding moisture...the only source of unfavorable dry air will be caused by upper convergence on the west side of the Gulf of Mexico upper vortex. However with the system already featuring a very expansive moisture field in relation to this dry air and with the upper vortex expected to weaken...currently not expecting dry air to be an issue for this system's development.

24 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jun 15)...35 mph max sustained wind tropical depression centered in the Gulf of Mexico just northwest and offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula at 22N-90.5W

48 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jun 16)...50 mph max sustained wind tropical storm centered in the western Gulf of Mexico at 24.5N-93.5W

72 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jun 17)...65 mph max sustained wind tropical storm approaching landfall on the eastern Texas coast centered at 27.7N-95.5W

96 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jun 18)...Remnant low centered over eastern Texas at 31.5N-96W

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion #20A (Special Update)

By: NCHurricane2009, 5:37 PM GMT on June 13, 2015

...SATURDAY JUNE 13 2015 1:37 PM EDT...
The disturbed weather in the western Carribean Sea...supported by upper divergence on the southeast flank of the upper vortex currently in the Gulf of Mexico...has seen a significant increase in showers and thunderstorms overnight and has developed a surface trough. This disturbance has been upgraded to Invest 91-L on the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) site of the US Navy. If current trends continue I will be upgrading this system to a special feature on my next full blog update late tonight. Regardless of development...the Yucatan Peninsula of southeastern Mexico can expect heavier weather to move in over the next day or so...and eastern Texas and western Louisiana can expect the arrival of enhanced tropical moisture by 96 to 120 hours (4 to 5 days).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #20

By: NCHurricane2009, 4:14 AM GMT on June 13, 2015

...SATURDAY JUNE 13 2015 12:20 AM EDT...
Disturbed weather has returned to the western Caribbean Sea...the Florida Straits...and Cuba...caused by upper divergence on the southeastern flank of the upper vortex dominating the Gulf of Mexico (marked by blue L in the atmospheric features chart below). Upper-level winds could become more favorable for development as this disturbance moves into the western Gulf of Mexico over the next 72 hours as the upper vortex weakens. The latest runs of the European (ECMWF)...CMC...and GFS computer models suggest this system could develop into a tropical low or tropical cyclone by that time. As a result this system has gained mention in the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook. If the current level of computer model support continues for another 24 hours...I will be upgrading this system to a special feature on this blog. Regardless of development...eastern Texas and western Louisiana can expect the arrival of enhanced tropical moisture by 96 to 120 hours (4 to 5 days).

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0000Z.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #19

By: NCHurricane2009, 2:10 AM GMT on June 12, 2015

...THURSDAY JUNE 11 2015 10:10 PM EDT...
All remains quiet in the Atlantic tropics...

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1913Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #18

By: NCHurricane2009, 3:30 AM GMT on June 11, 2015

...WEDNESDAY JUNE 10 2015 11:30 PM EDT...
The disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea is not expected to develop as it approaches the southern Gulf of Mexico due to unfavorable upper winds caused by the current upper trough in the Gulf which will evolve into a large upper vortex. All is quiet in the Atlantic tropics.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1925Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #17

By: NCHurricane2009, 1:58 AM GMT on June 10, 2015

...TUESDAY JUNE 9 2015 10:00 PM EDT...
The disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea remains active due to surface convergence supplied by a tropical wave moving in from the central Caribbean coupled with upper divergence supplied by a growing upper ridge (marked by blue H in the atmospheric features chart below). Simultaneously the southern part of the upper trough associated with the 998 mb eastern North America frontal cyclone has fractured over the southeastern US and northern Gulf of Mexico (fracture is marked by blue-dashed line). This fracture is expected grow into an upper vortex covering a large area of the Gulf of Mexico as this disturbance reaches the southwestern Gulf in 3 to 4 days. Even though this upper vortex has the potential to diminish after 5 days...it may be expansive enough to interrupt this disturbance's chances for tropical development. The CMC and NAVGEM models which previously showed this disturbance developing in the Gulf of Mexico no longer show development.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1920Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #16

By: NCHurricane2009, 1:34 AM GMT on June 09, 2015

...MONDAY JUNE 8 2015 9:35 PM EDT...
The disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea continues to grow as a surface trough supported by divergence on the southeast side of the upper trough in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico combines its shower and thunderstorm activity with that of the tropical wave currently moving in from the central Caribbean. Upper-level winds are slowly becoming more favorable for development as the southeastern Gulf of Mexico upper trough weakens. When this disturbance reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico region in about 3 to 4 days...upper-level wind forecasts show the southern part of the upper trough associated with the 999 mb eastern North America frontal cyclone fracturing into an upper vortex that dives into the western Gulf...and therefore this system may gain an asymmetric structure with all weather biased east of its center while the upper vortex suppresses the weather on its west side. However after 5 days upper winds could become even more favorable for development with the potential for this upper vortex to weaken by that time. The CMC computer model continues to show this disturbance developing in the Gulf of Mexico...and the latest NAVGEM model seems to suggest the disturbance at least evolving into a tropical low.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1930Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #15

By: NCHurricane2009, 3:52 AM GMT on June 08, 2015

...SUNDAY JUNE 7 2015 11:52 PM EDT...
The western Caribbean...Cuba...and Bahamas disturbance has finally developed a surface low...analyzed at 1014 mb in the atmospheric features chart below. Its supporting upper trough in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico has gained a southwest-northeast tilt while merging with the upper trough associated with the 1008 mb frontal depression offshore of the eastern US. This tilting of the upper trough has increased the westerly vertical shear over the disturbance...and therefore this disturbance is not expected to tropically develop as it accelerates northeastward away from the Bahamas and into the open western Atlantic.

Another disturbance is developing in the western Caribbean as a surface trough with showers and thunderstorms has developed under supportive upper divergence on the southeast side of the above-mentioned upper trough in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The pair of tropical waves currently in the central Caribbean Sea may add to this disturbance over the next couple of days. As the upper trough also weakens during this time...upper-level winds could become more favorable for the development of this disturbance...especially as it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico in about 4 days. The CMC computer model has returned to showing this disturbance developing in the Gulf of Mexico...and the latest NAVGEM model seems to suggest the disturbance at least evolving into a tropical low. Upper-level wind forecasts show the southern part of the upper trough associated with the 999 mb north-central US frontal cyclone fracturing into an upper vortex that dives into the western Gulf of Mexico...and therefore any Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone that develops from this disturbance will likely be of the asymmetric kind that tracks northward on the east side of the upper vortex with all weather biased east of its center while the upper vortex suppresses the weather on its west side.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 2230Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #14

By: NCHurricane2009, 2:02 AM GMT on June 07, 2015

...SATURDAY JUNE 6 2015 10:03 PM EDT...
The western Caribbean surface low had dissipated and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is weaker compared to 24 hours ago...but has become better organized around what is left of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico upper vortex which has recently de-amplifed into an upper trough (marked as a blue-dashed line in the atmospheric features chart below). The better organized shower and thunderstorm activity currently overspreads the western Caribbean region including the Cayman Islands and eastern Cuba...as well as parts of the Bahamas and southeastern Florida. The 1012 mb frontal low offshore of the eastern US has deepened into an elongated 1004-to-1008 mb low featuring a surface trough extending into the shower and thunderstorm activity. However with no signs of a surface circulation developing on the surface trough and no computer models currently forecasting this system to develop...not expecting this system to become a tropical cyclone.

As the above-mentioned southeastern Gulf of Mexico upper trough weakens over the next few days...upper-level winds could become more favorable for development for the tropical wave that is currently in the eastern Caribbean when the wave reaches the western Caribbean and southwestern Gulf of Mexico region in about 5 days. However all previous models that showed development from this wave are no longer showing this system develop.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1927Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #13

By: NCHurricane2009, 1:01 AM GMT on June 06, 2015

...FRIDAY JUNE 5 2015 9:01 PM EDT...
The western Caribbean surface low mentioned previously in discussion #11 has seen an increase in showers and thunderstorms over the last 24 hours as the upper divergence maximum associated with the east side of the Gulf of Mexico/eastern US upper trough moves overhead. The heavy weather associated with this disturbance overspreads the western Caribbean region including the Cayman Islands and Cuba...as well as parts of the Bahamas and southern Florida. As seen in the atmospheric features chart below...the southern part of the upper trough has fractured into a southeastern Gulf of Mexico upper vortex (marked as a blue L)...with the remainder of the upper trough (marked as a blue-dashed line) moving offshore from the eastern US and supporting a 1012 mb frontal low. While chasing the ridge weakness associated with the 1012 mb low...the western Caribbean low is expected to accelerate northeastward across Cuba and the Bahamas and into the open western Atlantic in the next 72 hours. There are currently no signs of tropical development...and southwesterly vertical shear on the east side of the upper trough may be too strong for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone. With the usually overly aggressive CMC computer model being the only model that develops this system...not expecting this system to become a tropical cyclone.

As the above-mentioned southeastern Gulf of Mexico upper vortex weakens over the next few days...upper-level winds could become more favorable for development for the tropical wave that is currently in the eastern Caribbean when the wave reaches the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico region about 5 to 6 days. However the only computer model that has returned to showing development of this wave is the usually over-aggressive CMC model.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1931Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #12

By: NCHurricane2009, 1:12 AM GMT on June 05, 2015

...THURSDAY JUNE 4 2015 9:13 PM EDT...
As the upper trough over the eastern United States and Gulf of Mexico (marked by blue L and blue-dashed line in the atmospheric features chart) weakens over the next few days...upper-level winds could become more favorable for development for the tropical wave that is currently just east of the Caribbean when the wave reaches the western Caribbean and southwestern Gulf of Mexico region about one week from now. However the latest CMC and European (ECMWF) computer models no longer forecast development of the wave.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1917Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #11

By: NCHurricane2009, 1:43 AM GMT on June 04, 2015

...WENDESDAY JUNE 3 2015 9:45 PM EDT...
The western Caribbean surface trough has intensified into a 1010 mb surface low per the latest TAFB analysis in the atmospheric features chart below and as observed by the cyclonic turning of low-level clouds in visible satellite animation. This surface low is supported by upper divergence on the east side of an upper trough/low over the eastern United States...marked as a blue L in the atmospheric features chart. This same upper trough however is also shearing the shower and thunderstorm activity northeastward away from the surface low and into central Cuba and the Bahamas and therefore tropical development of this surface low is not expected.

As the above-mentioned upper trough weakens over the next few days...upper-level winds in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean could become more favorable for development as suggested by lastet runs of the CMC and European (ECMWF) computer models which develop a Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone from the tropical wave that is currently in the central Atlantic in the timeframe that is a little over one week away.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1919Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #10

By: NCHurricane2009, 12:14 AM GMT on June 03, 2015

...TUESDAY JUNE 2 2015 8:15 PM EDT...
Upper divergence on the east side of an upper trough over the eastern United States and central Gulf of Mexico...marked by blue-dashed line in the atmospheric features chart below...is supporting a surface trough that has moved into the western Caribbean (marked by red-dashed line) and an expansive area of showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...western Caribbean...western Cuba...western Bahamas...and Florida. Over the next 72 hours this disturbance will continue to slowly shift east as the upper trough itself slowly shifts east. Recently the GFS and NAVGEM models have dropped their support for tropical development from this system...but the CMC model continues to suggest some potential for tropical development of this disturbance in the 72 to 96 hour (3 to 4 day) timeframe when the disturbance reaches central Cuba and the Bahamas. Currently not considering this system as a special feature on this blog since the only model showing development is the usually-overaggressvie CMC model. If anything was to develop from this disturbance...it would likely track northeast into the open western Atlantic and may affect the island of Bermuda in the long range.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1913Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #9

By: NCHurricane2009, 12:48 AM GMT on June 02, 2015

...MONDAY JUNE 1 2015 8:49 PM EDT...
Resuming daily birdseye view discussions on the Atlantic tropics as today marks the start of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Upper divergence on the east side of an upper trough over the eastern United States and western Gulf of Mexico...marked by blue-dashed line in the atmospheric features chart below...is supporting a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche (marked by red-dashed line) and an area of showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...Yucatan Peninsula...western Caribbean...and western Cuba. Over the next 96 hours this disturbance will slowly shift east as the upper trough itself slowly shifts east...and the tropical wave currently moving across the central Caribbean may merge with this disturbance. The CMC...GFS...and recently the NAVGEM model suggest some potential for tropical development of this disturbance in the 96 to 120 hour (4 to 5 day) timeframe when the disturbance reaches central Cuba and the Bahamas. If anything was to develop from this disturbance...it would likely track northeast into the open western Atlantic and may affect the island of Bermuda in the long range.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1919Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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