2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #9

By: NCHurricane2009 , 12:48 AM GMT on June 02, 2015

...MONDAY JUNE 1 2015 8:49 PM EDT...
Resuming daily birdseye view discussions on the Atlantic tropics as today marks the start of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Upper divergence on the east side of an upper trough over the eastern United States and western Gulf of Mexico...marked by blue-dashed line in the atmospheric features chart below...is supporting a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche (marked by red-dashed line) and an area of showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...Yucatan Peninsula...western Caribbean...and western Cuba. Over the next 96 hours this disturbance will slowly shift east as the upper trough itself slowly shifts east...and the tropical wave currently moving across the central Caribbean may merge with this disturbance. The CMC...GFS...and recently the NAVGEM model suggest some potential for tropical development of this disturbance in the 96 to 120 hour (4 to 5 day) timeframe when the disturbance reaches central Cuba and the Bahamas. If anything was to develop from this disturbance...it would likely track northeast into the open western Atlantic and may affect the island of Bermuda in the long range.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1919Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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12:14 AM GMT on June 03, 2015
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