2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #10

By: NCHurricane2009 , 12:14 AM GMT on June 03, 2015

...TUESDAY JUNE 2 2015 8:15 PM EDT...
Upper divergence on the east side of an upper trough over the eastern United States and central Gulf of Mexico...marked by blue-dashed line in the atmospheric features chart below...is supporting a surface trough that has moved into the western Caribbean (marked by red-dashed line) and an expansive area of showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...western Caribbean...western Cuba...western Bahamas...and Florida. Over the next 72 hours this disturbance will continue to slowly shift east as the upper trough itself slowly shifts east. Recently the GFS and NAVGEM models have dropped their support for tropical development from this system...but the CMC model continues to suggest some potential for tropical development of this disturbance in the 72 to 96 hour (3 to 4 day) timeframe when the disturbance reaches central Cuba and the Bahamas. Currently not considering this system as a special feature on this blog since the only model showing development is the usually-overaggressvie CMC model. If anything was to develop from this disturbance...it would likely track northeast into the open western Atlantic and may affect the island of Bermuda in the long range.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1913Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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1:43 AM GMT on June 04, 2015
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