2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #11

By: NCHurricane2009 , 1:43 AM GMT on June 04, 2015

...WENDESDAY JUNE 3 2015 9:45 PM EDT...
The western Caribbean surface trough has intensified into a 1010 mb surface low per the latest TAFB analysis in the atmospheric features chart below and as observed by the cyclonic turning of low-level clouds in visible satellite animation. This surface low is supported by upper divergence on the east side of an upper trough/low over the eastern United States...marked as a blue L in the atmospheric features chart. This same upper trough however is also shearing the shower and thunderstorm activity northeastward away from the surface low and into central Cuba and the Bahamas and therefore tropical development of this surface low is not expected.

As the above-mentioned upper trough weakens over the next few days...upper-level winds in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean could become more favorable for development as suggested by lastet runs of the CMC and European (ECMWF) computer models which develop a Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone from the tropical wave that is currently in the central Atlantic in the timeframe that is a little over one week away.


This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1919Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.


This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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1:12 AM GMT on June 05, 2015
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