2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #14

By: NCHurricane2009 , 2:02 AM GMT on June 07, 2015

...SATURDAY JUNE 6 2015 10:03 PM EDT...
The western Caribbean surface low had dissipated and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is weaker compared to 24 hours ago...but has become better organized around what is left of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico upper vortex which has recently de-amplifed into an upper trough (marked as a blue-dashed line in the atmospheric features chart below). The better organized shower and thunderstorm activity currently overspreads the western Caribbean region including the Cayman Islands and eastern Cuba...as well as parts of the Bahamas and southeastern Florida. The 1012 mb frontal low offshore of the eastern US has deepened into an elongated 1004-to-1008 mb low featuring a surface trough extending into the shower and thunderstorm activity. However with no signs of a surface circulation developing on the surface trough and no computer models currently forecasting this system to develop...not expecting this system to become a tropical cyclone.

As the above-mentioned southeastern Gulf of Mexico upper trough weakens over the next few days...upper-level winds could become more favorable for development for the tropical wave that is currently in the eastern Caribbean when the wave reaches the western Caribbean and southwestern Gulf of Mexico region in about 5 days. However all previous models that showed development from this wave are no longer showing this system develop.


This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1927Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.


This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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3:52 AM GMT on June 08, 2015
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