2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #20

By: NCHurricane2009 , 4:14 AM GMT on June 13, 2015

...SATURDAY JUNE 13 2015 12:20 AM EDT...
Disturbed weather has returned to the western Caribbean Sea...the Florida Straits...and Cuba...caused by upper divergence on the southeastern flank of the upper vortex dominating the Gulf of Mexico (marked by blue L in the atmospheric features chart below). Upper-level winds could become more favorable for development as this disturbance moves into the western Gulf of Mexico over the next 72 hours as the upper vortex weakens. The latest runs of the European (ECMWF)...CMC...and GFS computer models suggest this system could develop into a tropical low or tropical cyclone by that time. As a result this system has gained mention in the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook. If the current level of computer model support continues for another 24 hours...I will be upgrading this system to a special feature on this blog. Regardless of development...eastern Texas and western Louisiana can expect the arrival of enhanced tropical moisture by 96 to 120 hours (4 to 5 days).

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0000Z.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wuwnderground.com/tropical. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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3. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:37 PM GMT on June 13, 2015
NCHurricane2009 has created a new entry.
2. NCHurricane2009
5:30 PM GMT on June 13, 2015
Quoting 1. pureet1948:

Dear NCHurricane:

I live in Houston, and I'm a little concerned that this might become a really big, destructive storm. What are the chances of that happening?


Although upper winds will improve for this system, I don't think they will improve enough for it to become a major storm. This is more likely to be a rain maker than a severe wind event.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. pureet1948
4:45 AM GMT on June 13, 2015
Dear NCHurricane:

I live in Houston, and I'm a little concerned that this might become a really big, destructive storm. What are the chances of that happening?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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