2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #30

By: NCHurricane2009 , 2:22 AM GMT on June 23, 2015

...MONDAY JUNE 22 2015 10:22 PM EDT...
A sprawling area of showers and thunderstorms has developed in the last 24 hours that has traveled northwestward from the waters east of the Lesser Antilles to now covering parts of the northern Lesser Antilles...Puerto Rico...and open western Atlantic. This area of disturbed weather has developed as the surface convergence of a tropical wave has interacted with upper divergence on the east side of a cut-off upper vortex (tropical wave and upper vortex are marked with red-dashed line and blue L in the atmospheric features chart below...respectively). As the upper vortex weakens over the next five days...upper winds could become more favorable for tropical development of this disturbance at a location north of the Caribbean and south of Bermuda. However none of the computer models currently forecast this system to develop...and surface pressures in the region are currently high (due to surface subtropical ridge marked by red-zig-zag line in the atmospheric features chart below) with no signs of a low-level circulation developing at this time.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1912Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperature isotherms at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php...the site from which the above thermo chart is generated from...are currently outdated. Therfore I have approximated the 26 deg C isotherm in the above chart using the sea-surface temperature maps available at www.wunderground.com/hurricane. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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3:30 AM GMT on June 24, 2015
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