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2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #159
By: NCHurricane2009 , 1:53 AM GMT on November 02, 2016
...TUESDAY NOVEMBER 1 2016 9:54 PM EDT...
The following statement concerns area of interest #1 marked over the western Caribbean Sea and Yucatan peninsula in the atmospheric features chart below. Although thunderstorm activity in this region persists...the associated surface trough is not showing signs of consolidating into a surface low pressure spin. Less favorable westerly vertical shear is likely to increase in 72 to 96 hours as the base of the strong upper trough currently over western North America nears and therefore it is becoming less likely that this system will consolidate and develop into a tropical cyclone before the shear increases. Therefore this is my final statement on this system on this blog.
The following statement concerns area of interest #2 marked over the northeastern Caribbean Islands (Puerto Rico...Virgin Islands...and northern Lesser Antilles) and central tropical Atlantic. The broad surface low in this area is becoming enhanced by the southern fracture of the upper trough currently over the western Atlantic...resulting in a much larger area of thunderstorms that extends into the central Atlantic. However most of the latest model runs continue to back off on the solution where the fracture becomes a cut-off upper vortex such that the surface low moves faster to the northeast into cooler waters...making it less likely that this system becomes a subtropical cyclone. However will continue to monitor this area in case model solutions change again.
...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1953Z-released WPC analysis.
Areas of Interest maybe first introduced circled by a yellow-dashed line. If the area of interest becomes introduced in the 5-day National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic tropical weather outlook then it gets upgraded with a green-dashed line encircling it. If the area of interest gets upgraded to an Invest or is mentioned in the 48-hour NHC Atlantic tropical weather outlook then it gets upgraded with a green-solid polygon encircling it.
In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows (also called an upper vortex or upper cyclone), blue Hs are locations of upper ridges (also called upper anticyclones).
In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows (cyclones), Hs indicate surface highs (ridges/anticyclones).
...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.
Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.