2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #160

By: NCHurricane2009 , 3:05 AM GMT on November 03, 2016

...WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 2 2016 11:05 PM EDT...
The following statement concerns area of interest #1 marked over the central Atlantic in the atmospheric features chart below. The broad surface low in this area continues to become enhanced by divergence on the east side of an upper trough fragment in the western Atlantic. However most of the latest model runs continue to back off on the solution where the upper trough fragment becomes a cut-off upper vortex such that the surface low moves faster to the northeast into cooler waters...making it less likely that this system becomes a subtropical cyclone. However will continue to monitor this area in case model solutions change again.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1928Z-released WPC analysis.

Areas of Interest maybe first introduced circled by a yellow-dashed line. If the area of interest becomes introduced in the 5-day National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic tropical weather outlook then it gets upgraded with a green-dashed line encircling it. If the area of interest gets upgraded to an Invest or is mentioned in the 48-hour NHC Atlantic tropical weather outlook then it gets upgraded with a green-solid polygon encircling it.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows (also called an upper vortex or upper cyclone), blue Hs are locations of upper ridges (also called upper anticyclones).

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows (cyclones), Hs indicate surface highs (ridges/anticyclones).

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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10:36 PM GMT on November 03, 2016
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