2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #164

By: NCHurricane2009 , 2:58 AM GMT on November 09, 2016

...TUESDAY NOVEMBER 8 2016 10:05 PM EDT...
The following statement concerns area of interest #1 marked over the western Atlantic just northeast of Bermuda in the atmospheric features chart below. The deep-layered frontal cyclone in the area has not acquired additional tropical characteristics. This system will be accelerated northeastward into even cooler waters southeast of Atlantic Canada by the upper trough and surface frontal system approaching from eastern North America...therefore subtropical cyclone formation is not expected. This is my final statement on this system on this blog.

The following statement concerns area of interest #2 marked over the central United States in the atmospheric features chart below. A shortwave upper trough currently over eastern North America is supporting a lengthy surface frontal system...and in 48 hours the portion of this weather system currently over the central United States could amplify into a cut-off frontal cyclonic system while diving into the western Atlantic longwave upper trough regime that has persisted over the last several days. However the latest model runs show that another frontal system coming from Canada is likely to quickly absorb any frontal cyclonic system that develops. Will continue to monitor this situation in case model solutions change again.

...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1928Z-released WPC analysis.

Areas of Interest maybe first introduced circled by a yellow-dashed line. If the area of interest becomes introduced in the 5-day National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic tropical weather outlook then it gets upgraded with a green-dashed line encircling it. If the area of interest gets upgraded to an Invest or is mentioned in the 48-hour NHC Atlantic tropical weather outlook then it gets upgraded with a green-solid polygon encircling it.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows (also called an upper vortex or upper cyclone), blue Hs are locations of upper ridges (also called upper anticyclones).

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows (cyclones), Hs indicate surface highs (ridges/anticyclones).

...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...

This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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