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2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #170
By: NCHurricane2009 , 6:26 AM GMT on November 15, 2016
...TUESDAY NOVEMBER 15 2016 1:27 AM EDT...
The following statement concerns area of interest #1 marked in the central Caribbean Sea in the atmospheric features chart below. Although the thunderstorm activity in the area supported by a surface trough and upper outflow induced by an upper ridge is becoming increaingly organized just east of Nicaragua...conditions could become less favorable for development by 48 hours when the base of the upper trough moving into eastern North America nears the Caribbean and induces westerly vertical shear. The current rate of organization does not appear to be fast enough for tropical cyclone formation before the shear increases by 48 hours. Therefore not currently upgrading this system to a special feature on this blog with a tropical cyclone formation forecast...but will continue to monitor this system and may later upgrade this system to a special feature depending on the evolution of this system as the shear increases.
...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 0000Z and 0231Z-released WPC analysis.
Areas of Interest maybe first introduced circled by a yellow-dashed line. If the area of interest becomes introduced in the 5-day National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic tropical weather outlook then it gets upgraded with a green-dashed line encircling it. If the area of interest gets upgraded to an Invest or is mentioned in the 48-hour NHC Atlantic tropical weather outlook then it gets upgraded with a green-solid polygon encircling it.
In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows (also called an upper vortex or upper cyclone), blue Hs are locations of upper ridges (also called upper anticyclones).
In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Surface troughs labeled with TW indicates the trough is a tropical wave whose origin is from the mid-level African Easterly Jet. Ls indicate surface lows (cyclones), Hs indicate surface highs (ridges/anticyclones).
...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.
Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.