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TD Lisa/Fifteen; The Return of Julia?
By: NICycloneChaser, 6:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Good afternoon! (Well, evening over here in Northern Ireland...)
This is my first blog post. I'm hoping to have a new one most days.
Ok, so let's start with Tropical Depression Lisa, the lonely little cyclone in the far eastern Atlantic. The steering currents around Lisa have been pretty crazy since she was born, and have kept her hovering just to the north-west of the Cape Verde Islands for the last few days. Wind shear is expected to rise significantly in the next couple of days, and should be enough to destroy her. The Cape Verde islands may see some unsettled weather from her in the next couple of days, but I would be very suprised if she caused any significant impact on any land before her dissipation. Lisa shouldn't last much beyond the weekend.
As I write, Tropical Depression Fifteen has just been classified by the NHC. It is currently a 35mph storm, heading just north of due west, at 280 degrees. It should continue on a fairly westerly path for the next 2-3 days due to a ridge to its north, then start to show more of a northerly component when it gets around Honduras/the Yucatan peninsula, as a trough digs into the central US. It should intensify steadily for the next 2-3 days, due to low wind shear and exremely hot SSTs, and should be a strong tropical storm by the time it reaches Nicaragua/Honduras. Thereafter, the intensity depends heavily on how far inland the storm is when it reaches this area. If it does its turn over land, the storm should weaken; if over water, continue to intensify, or, as currently forecast by the NHC, if it hovers just on shore, it should mantain a fairly constant strength. The NHC is currently forecasting it to be Hurricane Matthew by the time it reaches the Yucatan.
In the longer term, the effect this may have on the US is very uncertain. The track depends on the strength of the trough, and it's positioning. The intensity depends on how badly affected the storm may have been during it's turn around Honduras/Mexico. If this does avoid land, it has the potential to be a fairly significant storm for the U.S.
The remnant low of Hurricane Julia is making one last attempt at life. It is now moving south-west in the eastern Atlantic. There is quite a lot of dry air around it, and whilst SSTs should increase as it gets further south, Hurricane Igor has left a very large wake of cooler water behind it. Overall, it is unlikely that Julia will be renamed, and even if it is, it is unlikely to threaten any land for at least the next 7-10 days.
I should also mention, as it is my first blog, that I do not consider myself an expert in this area. I am merely writing this blog for informational purposes. PLEASE do not use this to make any decisions on preparations for a storm.
Thanks for reading!
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.