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Tropical forecast out look

By: PRweathercenter, 8:57 PM GMT on July 28, 2010


Aloha!!

Good afternoon everyone!
We are going to have beautiful weather this weekend here in Eastern Puerto Rico, however we need to keep an eye in the sky. There is a very strong tropical wave located at around 35W, just south west of the cape verde islands. The models aren't in agreement as to what this system will do, but given the time of year we are in and the current Atlantic conditions, i would not be surprised to see an invest or even possibly a tropical depressison by weeks end. Where will it go, right now we have no idea, but it seems like it could be very close to the northern leeward islands by Wednesday or thursday of next week.
So folks, stay here for your latest updates. please see comments for the updates ;-)

Update!!!

Invest 91 is currently not moving too much but appears to me moving very slowly to the west , We could be talking about the next big weather story be next Wednesday or Thursday. All of the current computer models have shifted more south, instead of missing the islands, now passing directly over us, it's way too early to tell how strong this system will be or what islands will be first in it's path, but we need to keep in mind that we, living in Puerto Rico, are over due for a direct from a Hurricane, currently there is nearly a 70 percent of a tropical cyclone affecting the local area this season. Please keep in mind it's basically august!!
All have an update Monday unless there are major changes.

Remember this massive Hurricane back in August 1899?
On August 7, after stations in the Lesser Antilles reported a change in wind from the northeast to the northwest, the United States Weather Bureau ordered hurricane signals at Roseau, Dominica, Basseterre, Saint Kitts, and San Juan, Puerto Rico; later, a hurricane signal was raised at Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Information on the hurricane was also sent to other locations throughout the Caribbean.[3]

Estimates of storm-related fatalities range from 3,100 to 3,400, with millions of dollars in crop damage in Puerto Rico. North Carolina had considerable tobacco and corn damage from the longevity of the strong winds and rain.

Overall, the island was swamped by 28 days of rain, contributing to the overall disaster.

Hurricane San Ciriaco set many records on its path. Killing nearly 3,500 people in Puerto Rico, it was the deadliest hurricane to hit the island and the strongest at the time, until 30 years later when the island was hit by the Hurricane San Felipe Segundo, a Category 5 hurricane, in 1928. It was also the tenth deadliest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded.

Also, with an Accumulated cyclone energy of 73.57, it has the highest ACE of any Atlantic hurricane in history. In 2004, Hurricane Ivan became the second Atlantic hurricane to surpass an ACE value of 70, but did not surpass the San Ciriaco hurricane.

San Ciriaco is also the longest lasting Atlantic hurricane in recorded history, lasting for 28 days.
History of the Storm. it was first observed on August 3 to the west-southwest of Cape Verde.[1] That day, a ship reported tropical storm force winds and an atmospheric pressure of 995 mbar.[2] For a few days, its exact path was unknown due to lack of observations, although it is estimated that the storm continued west-northwestward and attained hurricane status on August 5.[1][2] On August 7, as it approached the northern Lesser Antilles, the hurricane began to be tracked continuously by ship and land observations.[3] By that date, it was quickly intensifying into a powerful storm, and a station on Montserrat reported a pressure of 930 mbar.[2] This suggested sustained winds of 150 mph (240 km/h), which would be the peak intensity of the hurricane.[1]

Late on August 7, the hurricane moved through the northern Lesser Antilles, passing directly over Guadeloupe and a short distance to the south of Saint Kitts; in the latter island, a station reported winds of 120 mph (193 km/h).[3] Continuing west-northwestward, the hurricane weakened slightly before making landfall on August 8 along the southeastern coast of Puerto Rico. The city of Guayama recorded a pressure of 940 mbar, suggesting a landfall intensity of 140 mph (225 km/h).[1]

August 8 was the namesday of Saint Cyriacus. It crossed the island in an east-southeast to west-northwest direction, causing maximum wind speeds between 110 and 140 mph (180 and 230 km/h) throughout.[4]

After it passed Puerto Rico, it brushed northern Dominican Republic as a Category 3 hurricane, but passed north enough to not cause major damage. It passed through the Bahamas, retaining its strength as it moved slowly northward. After drifting northeastward, the hurricane turned northwestward, hitting the Outer Banks on August 17. It drifted northeastward over the state, re-emerging into the Atlantic on the 19th. It continued eastward, where it became extratropical on the 22nd.

The extratropical cyclone turned southeastward where, on August 26, it became a tropical storm again. Like most of the rest of its lifetime, it drifted, first to the northwest then to the east. It strengthened as it moved eastward, and on September 3, as it was moving through the Azores, it again became a hurricane. The intensification didn't last long, and the hurricane became extratropical for the final time on the 4th. It dissipated that day while racing across the northeastern Atlantic. More info ? Link


J.L. PRweather
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Weather in Puerto Rico July 22th 2010

By: PRweathercenter, 8:16 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

Aloha!! Hey every one, this is PR weather Center, formly Caribbean Island Storm, my other account was hacked into and had been compromised. Well folks the weather in here in Eastern Puerto Rico has been kind of nasty the past few days with a lot heavey rain shoers. The island muncipality of culebra adn vieques recorded over 8 inches of rain theses past few days, hopefully tommorrow the sun will start shining again.

J.L
PRweathercenter


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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