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Strong Tropical Disturbance is on it's way to Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles

By: PRweathercenter, 9:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

Aloha!!

We can expect numerous showers in eastern Puerto Rico as a result of soon to be tropical storm Nicole.



This system is very large and has been bringing tropical storm conditions over south central Cuba this afternoon.

This system should affect the southern Florida area within the next 48hours.

We should be more concerned about a very strong disturbance that is currently in the central Atlantic.
Link


The GFS model has been consistent with this impacting the central Antilles by early next week. Will it be a strong wave, depression, tropical storm or even a hurricane has yet to be seen.



The national Hurricane Center currently is giving this system a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone .

Here's the lastest report from the NHC.

FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks

GIS data: .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.


Regardless of weather this develops or not it could bring torrential rain fall and mudslides to portions of Puerto Rico early next week. Keep in mind this system should not develop much until it gets very close to the central islands.

I will have an update soon.

Have a great week!!

Jay. L
PRweather

NEW!
Hey guys!!, all seems pretty quite, i'm keeping a close eye on a monster wave that came off of Africa!! Although it's not a usually place of formation, it could develop a little later on !!
I'll keep posted!!
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Puerto Rico Tropical Forecast/ Possible Tropical Storm in 7 days

By: PRweathercenter, 1:40 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

Aloha!!

It's been very quite here in Eastern Puerto Rico. We've had some beautiful weather the past 2 weeks with very little change in conditions.





However, we are still in the peak of the Hurricane season, and we could very well still be impacted by a tropical cyclone later this season.

Our only concern right now is a small area of disturbed weather about 800 miles south west of the cape verde islands.



With a very strong ridge of high pressure to the north, there is not much of a chance of this system re curving out to sea.

Here's the latest map of the National Hurricane Center.



The latest GFS computer model has this system impacting the central Antilles as a minimal tropical storm, and then approaching us Sunday night.



The GFS cannot tell us how strong this system will be, but gives us a general idea that a system should form and where it might effect. This is something to keep a close eye on if your planning to do any out door activities early next week.

I'll have an update soon, and have a great week!!!

Jay. L.
PRweather
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All quiet in the Atlantic Ocean, Puerto Rico clear for now

By: PRweathercenter, 5:59 PM GMT on September 14, 2010

Aloha!!!

All is in the clear for us living in Eastern Puerto Rico.
Hurricane Igor is a powerful hurricane right now, however it should miss us by nearly 500 miles to our north east.

Hurricane Julia is also gaining intensity but is moving WNW and is already at 16.2 north. This motion should continue for the next 48 hours then the system should go north dieing out in the north Atlantic Waters.

So, far, it's been relatively quiet for us here in eastern Puerto Rico. Are we out of the woods this season? Well the longer this pattern continues with Storms re curving will be safe, however all global models are predicting a major change in the pattern we've been seeing lately.

The GFS predicts that the tropical storms will develop within the next week. One of these systems appears to be impacting the the Central lesser Antilles by next week and the other one approaching as well right behind.

Here's the GFS. The first L is a possible tropical storm closing in on the central islands, Guadalupe, Dominica, Martinique. The second L in the central Atlantic is a stronger system following a similar path, we will have to watch these areas very very closely.



This is the peak for Puerto Rico's Direct hit probability, mid to late September. Even in early October the chances for impact are very high, and keep in mind, this is not a normal hurricane season, we are already above average. The season has plenty of life left to it.
Why are they not going out to sea?

It appears that 2 tropical waves that are over western Africa are going to emerge off the coast and move west. All the systems we've seen have done this, however these could be more of a threat because they will move off at a very low latitude.



This will cause there development to slower than other systems, however, they will have more of a chance for impacting the central Antilles. That's where it's more dangerous for us here in Eastern Puerto Rico, all of the Hurricanes with the exception of Hurricane San Ciprian in 1932 have hit us from the south east, not the east like San Ciprian which was an exception.

However, this is way to early to start speculating if or when a tropical cyclone will impact us here. Only time will tell, i would start looking to see at least an invest declared sometime this weekend out one of the waves that is in the process of emerging today.

I'll have an another update soon.

Have a great week!!

PRweather
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All quiet in the Atlantic Ocean, Puerto Rico clear for now

By: PRweathercenter, 5:59 PM GMT on September 14, 2010

Aloha!!!

All is in the clear for us living in Eastern Puerto Rico.
Hurricane Igor is a powerful hurricane right now, however it should miss us by nearly 500 miles to our north east.

Hurricane Julia is also gaining intensity but is moving WNW and is already at 16.2 north. This motion should continue for the next 48 hours then the system should go north dieing out in the north Atlantic Waters.

So, far, it's been relatively quiet for us here in eastern Puerto Rico. Are we out of the woods this season? Well the longer this pattern continues with Storms re curving will be safe, however all global models are predicting a major change in the pattern we've been seeing lately.

The GFS predicts that the tropical storms will develop within the next week. One of these systems appears to be impacting the the Central lesser Antilles by next week and the other one approaching as well right behind.

Here's the GFS. The first L is a possible tropical storm closing in on the central islands, Guadalupe, Dominica, Martinique. The second L in the central Atlantic is a stronger system following a similar path, we will have to watch these areas very very closely.



This is the peak for Puerto Rico's Direct hit probability, mid to late September. Even in early October the chances for impact are very high, and keep in mind, this is not a normal hurricane season, we are already above average. The season has plenty of life left to it.
Why are they not going out to sea?

It appears that 2 tropical waves that are over western Africa are going to emerge off the coast and move west. All the systems we've seen have done this, however these could be more of a threat because they will move off at a very low latitude.



This will cause there development to slower than other systems, however, they will have more of a chance for impacting the central Antilles. That's where it's more dangerous for us here in Eastern Puerto Rico, all of the Hurricanes with the exception of Hurricane San Ciprian in 1932 have hit us from the south east, not the east like San Ciprian which was an exception.

However, this is way to early to start speculating if or when a tropical cyclone will impact us here. Only time will tell, i would start looking to see at least an invest declared sometime this weekend out one of the waves that is in the process of emerging today.

I'll have an another update soon.

Have a great week!!

PRweather
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Hurricane Igor and Tropical Storm Julia ? Affects in Puerto Rico

By: PRweathercenter, 1:23 AM GMT on September 12, 2010

Aloha!!

It's going to be a rainy weekend here in Eastern Puerto Rico, we are currently under a Flash Flood watch until Sunday until 4:00 PM local time.





This is due to a disturbance that's just south of us right now. I didn't mentioned it before because it did not seem like an large threat to us here, which is hasn't. The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday, which i think is reasonable since the disturbance is not very organized.



What effects will Hurricane Igor have on us here in eastern Puerto Rico? Well it depends on large the wind field is when it passes north of us Wednesday night into Thursday.



Will this be a repeat of Earl? Earl passed 85 miles north of Culebra and produced wind gust well in excess of tropical storm force in portions of Northern and eastern Puerto Rico, and even spawned a Tornado way up in the hill country of Jayuya.

I think Igor will pass around 20 north and 60 west. I stated this a few days ago and have no reason to change forecast.
Do keep in mind that Igor has been a very hard storm to track, even the NHC did not know where the center was last night, and could not even estimate the wind speed accurately. I do believe Igor briefly attained Hurricane Status over night for about a few hours, however dry air disrupted the system a little, but its now on a full recovery.

Please stay tuned to the latest advisories from your local NWS office.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=SJU&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&gloss ary=1

We soon will have Tropical Storm Julia right off the coast of Africa. The models are going crazy with this system, insisting on a North North West Track, i would have to disagree with that at least for the moment because the same subtropical ridge that's forcing Igor west will do the same with this wave at least till about 35-40 W.

Here's a view of Julia in the making




After that it's a little iffy, we will have to see what happens because major changes are going to occur in the steering patterns across the Western Hemisphere.
The chances of getting impacted by a storm are going to go up a little for the next 2-3 weeks, then go up a little more because there should be more development in the central Atlantic.

This is all for now, and have great Week End!!!

Jay.L
PRweather

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Hurricane Igor could come every close to the Lesser Antilles

By: PRweathercenter, 7:10 PM GMT on September 08, 2010

Aloha!!

Tropical Storm Igor is born and is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend. This is one of the most easterly storms ever formed on record!

Will this potentially massive Hurricane affect us here in eastern puerto rico ? It's way to early to tell, however a lot of the computer models have this future Hurricane going north of us by about 300 miles, crossing 60 w and 20 n, that's very close for a system that's over 3000 miles away.
The margin of error could about 500 miles north or even south of us in this point in the game. Once Igor crosses 35 W we will have a better idea as to how close it could come to us here in eastern Puerto Rico.

Here's the latest advisory of Igor from the National Hurricane Center.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 081736
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
200 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010

...IGOR BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 23.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM S OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.7 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR
SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

Here's the 5 day forecast track.



It's very interesting to note that the infamous San Felipe Segundo Hurricane in 1928 formed almost exactly where Igor has formed.



This is just a thought, not that it's going to happen, however Igor does have the makings of Hurricane that is meant to be in the history books, where will it affect, only time will tell.

Have great week!!

Jay L.
PRweather
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Puerto Rico Tropical Forecast September 8th 2010

By: PRweathercenter, 12:54 AM GMT on September 08, 2010

Aloha!!!

Well, Gaston is no more. The only effects will continue to be scattered showers over us here in Eastern Puerto Rico.



These showers will continue on and off until the weekend.
It's going to be a great weekend to be outdoors or perhaps making it a beach day with plenty of sun!!

So, will we have Igor anytime soon, well there's a good chance of Igor forming right now off the coast off Africa.
Global Models continue to predict that a very intense hurricane will form in the central Atlantic sometime this weekend.

The wave or area of disturbed weather is just south of the Cape Verde Islands, and will move generally westward.
The National Hurricane Center has designated this system as invest 91.



While there is no doubt that invest 91 should develop into a least a tropical depression, there is uncertainty where it will go. So far most models have this system moving well north of us, however this is way to early to say this system will not impact us directly or affect us in anyway. Once the system develops a little more, we can have general idea as to where it might go, right now is just a guessing game. Right now there is a very strong high pressure to the north that will not let this wave go to far north, how long will this high pressure stay this strong has yet to be seen.

Here's the latest GFS model suggesting where this system may be headed. Keep in mind this is a week away. Here on the current run, it has this system as a Hurricane in the central Atlantic Ocean. Weather this happens or not has yet to be seen.




However, might we stress this is the height of hurricane season, any storm could just pop out of now where and develop. make sure you have plenty of supplies as of now.
I will have an update later on what could be Hurricane Igor.

Have a Great Week!!!

Jay L.
PRweather

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Will Gaston ever revelop into a Tropical Cyclone?

By: PRweathercenter, 2:50 AM GMT on September 05, 2010

Aloha!!

What a beautiful day today!! It's a great weekend to spend at the beach, just a few scattered showers across eastern Puerto Rico.

Well, let's get right to Gaston or ex Gaston.

Here's the NHC current map of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.



As we can see the NHC has increased the chances for Gaston to redevelop into a tropical cyclone by Monday night, however i completely disagree with the percentage being so high.

I would put the chances of development at 30 percent. Why ?
Gaston is completely surrounded by dry air, and also has wind shear coming in from the east, also once it fights off the the shear from the east it will have more southerly shear from an upper level low over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

I do think it might have a chance to development by the time it reaches Puerto Rico, however it should be at max a weak tropical storm if that.



I will have an update later depending on the condition of the tropical wave that was once tropical storm Gaston.

Have a great weekend,

Jay. L.
PRweather

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Hurricane Gaston Could Impact Puerto Rico Next Tuesady

By: PRweathercenter, 2:50 AM GMT on September 02, 2010

Aloha!!

Wow, it's very busy in the tropical Atlantic right now.
We have 3 tropical cyclones that are roaming the seas tonight.



Hurricane Earl, Tropical Storm Fiona, and soon to be Hurricane Gaston if the models are correct. As a matter of fact the GFS predicted the development of Gaston and had impacting southern Puerto Rico and the Dominican republic. However the model shortly dropped this prediction, however it's seems that that the case right now.

Here's the official " potential track of Tropical Storm Gaston by the national hurricane center.



The track generally has it headed in west or west north-west north direction till about Sunday, and then curves the storm more towards the central lesser Antilles. These are the systems puerto rico needs to keep an eye on.



There's almost an official rule here on the island, if a storm impacts the island of Guadalupe, it will have a higher chance of hitting Puerto Rico. Examples of this can be seen if Hurricanes such as the infamous San Ciricao in 1899, San Felipe in 1928, Hurricane Betsy or Santa Clara in 1956 and also Hurricane Hugo in 1989.

A few exceptions have been observed, such as Georges which impacted Antigua and Hurricane San Ciripan in 1932 which impacted Barbuda.

In Gaston case it has yet to be determined, the storm is very far away, and pretty much go any where, however the thinking is at the moment, the it will come in to our general area.

With this in mind, start preparing now, don't wait for the government to issue a warning, make plans now. If the system doesn't come, I'm sure you'll use your supplies later this season.

We dodged a bullet with Hurricane Earl, however we might not me so lucky later this season. Earl saturated our soil here on the island, and the tropical storm force winds loosened many tree roots. A major hurricane in Puerto Rico next week could be a disaster. We hope that won't happen, but 's a possibility right now!

The Forecast brings Gaston to Category 2 or possibly a 3 at it's closest approach.

Here's the Forecast Intensity Model




I'll have an update later on this week with any developments with Gaston.

Enjoy the beautiful weather for now!!

Jay L
PRWeather

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Hurricane Gaston could affect Puerto Rico Next Tuesday.

By: PRweathercenter, 10:40 PM GMT on September 01, 2010

Blog will be updated soon
Hurricane Earl Brushing us here in Eastern Puerto Rico

Here's a video that someone sent in to us from the Caguas area as one of Earl's Squalls came through.

img src="" alt="" />

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Jay L.

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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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