GOM gets fluffy..

By: Patrap , 6:39 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

..from Dr. Jeff Masters entry,

Gulf of Mexico disturbance a threat to develop

Surface winds over the Gulf of Mexico are rising today in advance of the approach of a tropical wave currently over the Western Caribbean, western tip of Cuba, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. This wave is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph, and is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. The wave is slowly beginning to build an increased amount of heavy thunderstorms, and this process will accelerate on Thursday when the wave enters the Gulf of Mexico. By Friday, when the wave will be near the Louisiana or Texas coast, wind shear is expected to drop to low to moderate levels, and the wave may be able to organize into a tropical depression. This process will likely take several days, and formation of a tropical depression is more likely Saturday or Sunday. NHC is giving the wave just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. Regardless, this system will spread heavy rains to portions of the Gulf Coast by Friday, with the Upper Texas coast and the coast of Louisiana the most likely recipients of heavy rain. Strong onshore winds raising tides to 1 - 2 feet above normal are likely over Louisiana beginning on Friday, and coastal flood statements have been issued for the region. Three of our four top models for predicting tropical cyclone development forecast that a tropical depression will form this weekend or early next week, and I think it is at least 50% likely we will have Tropical Depression 13 on our hands by Monday. However, steering currents will be weak in the Gulf, and it is difficult to predict where the storm might go.The GFS model has a possible tropical depression forming by Sunday off the coast of Mississippi, then moving east-northeast over the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The ECMWF model forms the storm on Monday off the coast of Texas, and leaves the storm stalled out there through Wednesday. The UKMET model forms the storm Saturday off the coast of Louisiana, and leaves it stalled out there through Monday. If the storm did remain in the Gulf of Mexico for three days as some of the recent model runs have been predicting, it would be a threat to intensify into a hurricane.

Profile Visitor Map - Click to view visits
Create your own visitor map

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 15 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

15. ycd0108
12:56 AM GMT on September 05, 2011
I (have been) bin over on Doom and wonder wth is going on.
Meantime Shore's got firestorms and I have a ditch in which I crawl about looking for rocks which might some day wear holes in my expensive underground cables.
From Radar I'm guessing the flooding is not too bad there?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
14. masshysteria
5:46 PM GMT on September 04, 2011
Hi Pat!

I see you're currently receiving only light rain in your area of NOLA. Hope you and yours are all alright and that you've escaped from any harmful flooding in your district or parish! What a slow moving damaging super-soaker T/S Lee has turned out to be!!

Looks like T/S Lee's harmful effects will also be far reaching, as it slowly moves towards the NNE; especially, to those parts of already flood ravaged Vermont.

Hope this fall will be kinder to all after such an unprecedentedly punishing spring/summer season! Let us know how you've made out when all is said and done.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
13. MNTornado
5:09 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Good afternoon.
I just took a quick look at the computer models from TS13 and now they seem to be indicating TS13 will make landfall more towards the East and make a sharp right turn towards New Orleans and the Mississippi and finally make Auburn it's target. Considering that the computer model apparently were predicting this storm even before the NHC, I'm not sure what to believe at this point. The computer models still look like a bowl of Spaghetti. The only thing that is for sure is that there is a major storm brewing in the GOM very close to Louisiana.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
12. collinsfarm
2:57 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Good morning Pat,
Looks like you got a heavy rainmaker stalking off the coast there. I know you'll stay alert. Take care and be safe.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
11. auburn (Mod)
1:50 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Hey Pat..I hear you MIGHT get some rain...LOL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
10. Patrap
1:16 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Morning folks,,were gonna keep a wary eye on it thats fo sho
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
9. masshysteria
12:21 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Hi Pat ~

Saw on national/local TV (last night and early am today) that TS-Lee is currently descending on NOLA and could possibly dump an astronomical amount of rainfall (up to 20 inches) in the course of 3-4 days. Glad a State of Emergency has been issued and hope that enough people are totally prepared for yet another possibly damaging flood! Prayers up to y'all! Let us know how you make out!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
8. MNTornado
7:34 AM GMT on September 02, 2011
Pat, the NWS graphic forecast is suggesting that the eye of this thing is going to come ashore just South of some place called Abbeville at about 7am Sunday morning.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
7. Patrap
5:06 PM GMT on August 31, 2011

ir Quality Alert
Statement as of 9:45 AM CDT on August 31, 2011

... Air quality alert in effect until midnight CDT tonight for
southeast Louisiana...

The Louisiana department of environmental quality has issued an
air quality alert for southeast Louisiana... including the New
Orleans and Baton Rouge metropolitan areas.

Air quality monitors in both the New Orleans and Baton Rouge areas
show elevated levels of particulate matter in the air due to a
marsh fire burning in eastern Orleans Parish. While the highest
impacts will be felt across areas that are generally west and west
northwest of the fire... at least minor impacts will be possible
across most of southeast Louisiana. Winds are forecast to
strengthen this afternoon... and should help disperse the smoke
more effectively.

However... throughout the day... particulate matter concentrations
will fluctuate between moderate and unhealthy. Active children
and adults... the elderly and people with respiratory diseases such
as asthma... should avoid being outside for long periods of time.
Others should avoid exertion and prolonged outdoor activities when
smoke is present. Seek medical care if you experience difficulty
breathing or other health related issues.

For more information please visit the d E q website at
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
6. Patrap
11:16 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Hurricane Irene: Jeff Masters' Must-Read Irene Blog

He may be nearly 1,000 miles from the storm's center, but few people in America have as good idea of what Hurricane Irene is doing -- and is about to do -- as Jeff Masters.

From his home in Ann Arbor, Mich., Masters has kept a calm and methodical account of the status of Irene on WunderBlog, a blog that's part of the Weather Underground network. As Irene bears down on the Atlantic Coast, his site has become a must-read source of information for weather junkies and nervous East Coast residents alike.

"I don't use the word dangerous often, and if I call something dangerous, you'd better pay attention," Masters said by phone Saturday afternoon. "I started doing that back when this first formed as a tropical storm. ... There's a lot of uncertainty in meteorology, but let me tell you, this storm scared the bejesus out of me."

On a normal day in the hurricane season, Masters says, his blog gets 80,000 page views. On Friday, with the storm bearing down on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, he got 630,000 views
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. NOLA2005
7:16 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Hey Pat,

Thanks for the elderly/disabled article! Btw, check your mail....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. Patrap
5:29 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. Patrap
5:28 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Central Atlantic - Rainbow Loop

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2. Patrap
5:28 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. Patrap
4:13 PM GMT on August 30, 2011

I come from Tin Pan Valley and I'm moving right along
I live on former glory, so long ago and gone
I'm turning down the talk shows, the humour and the couch
I'm moving up to higher ground, I've found a new way out.
There's parasols and barbeques and loungers by the pool
The late night conversations filled with 20th century cool
My peers may flirt with cabaret, some fake the rebel yell
Me - I'm moving up to higher ground, I must escape this hell.
Let me suspend my thirst for knowledge in your powder, sweat and sighs
A grudge of Christian women, a stain of spotless wives
A perfect destination inside a perfect world
I take the bottle to the baby, you take the hammer to the pearl
Like this
Every day's like Sunday, down here on memory lane
Salad days and no good ways drive me quite insane
A cocktail clouded troubadour attempts to speak in tongues
He's said enough, I'm through the door I'm moving right along
Like this
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 15 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page