Skyepony's WunderBlog

Rain for the West & Tropics

By: Skyepony, 9:42 PM GMT on November 29, 2014

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Over the last several days the models have been beginning to show a pattern shift for the Western United States. Mainly a shift affecting the death ridge parked near California and the intense drought. It had been noted in the bi-weekly Drought Brief that there was scattered rain with Willits receiving the highest amount at 3.84". It was also noted that none of the totals were enough to dent the drought with the reservoirs being as low as they are.

Reservoir Levels (%capacity):Reservoir Levels as of November 20 remain low, including:
Don Pedro 37%;
Exchequer 8%;
Folsom Lake 29%;
Lake Oroville 25%;
Millerton Lake 34%;
New Melones 21%;
Pine Flat 12%;
San Luis 21%;
Lake Shasta 23%;
Trinity Lake 23%.
An update of water levels at other smaller reservoirs is also available here.

GEOS-5 has been showing a change recently. Round one has arrived, it doesn't appear that it will all just evaporate either. What is falling now is about 3/4 of what was forecast but it makes what should fall over next days and week more exciting..

Sunday & Tuesday


Wednesday & a week from Sunday brings another chance but limited more to North & Central California.


Current Conditions


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
World Tropics

This 7 year old boy, Jason Baldado climbed a coconut tree during Queenie's flood in Cebu, Philippines last week. He was eventually rescued.


21W SINLAKU Here's models for it.


95W



02S


98S



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..

Drought SW Rain Tropics Boy Survives Queenie

Morocco Flooding Updated

By: Skyepony, 3:36 PM GMT on November 28, 2014

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Gaza Strip Flooding
The United Nations has declared a State of Emergency for the Gaza Strip after two days of heavy rain. The UN relief agency reported that hundreds of residents in Sheikh Radwan neighborhood of Gaza City have been evacuated. The "storm water lagoon" has closed over 100 schools in the area. This adds to the dire humanitarian situation from the supplies blockades and the recent war. The UN is supplying emergency fuel during the flood for water pumps, basic needs utilities & health facilities.





Morocco Flooding
Hit even harder by flooding this last week was Morocco. The death toll there has reached atleast 32 with others missing. There was fears this would cause unrest and protest but Morocco's King Mohamed has proclaimed that authorities should provide "all necessary emergency measures to help and support victims of the floods". Spain is also lending support. Though this area floods at times this is being called the worst flood since 1986. Homes, cars and livestock were lost. Atleast 214 people were saved in rescue operations. It was said at one point almost 10 inches of rain fell in just a few hours. Looking like hundreds of homes dissolved in the flood. Here is pictures from Ighourane.




Sous River flood
Sous River Banczykan flood on Friday 28/11/2014
Flood Valley " Avtis " Bavanor day Friday, 28/11/2014
Wade Osaka flood and Amjad Tiznit Province
Flood regret turns into a pool of young people 11/27/2014
National Security car sinking due to flooding in Marrakech
Flood Wade Zakit - mouth Zguid Tata



Morocco is expecting more rain and flooding over the weekend. Friday (11/28) should be the worst as far as rainfall.





World Tropics
21W SINLAKU Here's models for it.


95W



02S


98S



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..

Morocco flood Gaza Strip Flood Tropics

T-Day Traveling/Tropics

By: Skyepony, 3:02 PM GMT on November 24, 2014

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Raining across parts of Florida still as the storm starts to move off for the northeast. Awoke to high winds that peaked at 22mph. 0.84inches has fallen here in the last 24hrs. The temps have taken a dive. Locals will need shoes & long sleeves in the coming days. Today we have already seen the high & should remain in the upper 50s, low 60s at best.


It is looking more like GEOS-5 was onto something about the Northeast coastal areas having more rain & less snow. This is beginning to be reflected in the NWS graphics. The storm should still bring snow on the backside of it as it moves up the Northeast. There is also that bumper system we were watching dump snow over CO area the other day, though diminished that should come through the cold behind the Nor'easter and bring snow down MI, IA, MO, TN, KY and on Thanksgiving into NC, VA, may last to dust DC or just south of there.


GEOS-5 left to right...WED morning and WED Afternoon


ECMWF Has lightened the snow load, especially near the coast..
ECMWF WED evening Snowfall totals


This is a good storm to check out the local NWS forecasts..These are the real time NWS snow forecasts below. Click on them to go to the respective NWS.





Luckyone1's wundercam in East Berlin, PA and Jeb1992's wundercam in Morgantown, PA.




World Tropics
21W Queenie Here's models for it.


97S


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..

Thanksgiving Travel Weather 21W

Southeast Storms Gather

By: Skyepony, 9:17 PM GMT on November 22, 2014

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Storms are brewing across the Southeast this weekend. It has been sprinkling on and off since late lastnight. The rain total here so far is 0.15". After spending the day with muddy, spooky ponies it is clear they expect the weather to worsen. The rain is welcome as it has been somewhat dry. The precipitation has a refreshing cool to it, perfect to get caught in after grooming ponies.

GEOS-5 has sped this storm up. Gathering now across the Southeast on Sunday as the low pulls together south of and then over the Great Lakes possibly leaving snow or ice across parts of the far north central, Great Lakes area of the USA and areas north of there in Canada on Monday.


The South..


These are the current views from left to right of the Central & Eastern CONUS.



STORM REPORTS
To begin we've had 1/2 inch hail & 53mph winds in Val Verde, Texas as well as minor flooding in Travis, TX.. Reports via San Antonio/Austin, TX NWS. Bexar had some winds & flooding. EXIT 593 ON INTERSTATE 10 maybe closed. MAVERICK had 1.25" hail. ZAVALA, TX had 68mph winds. FAYETTE, TX had 10 motorist stranded in water. KINNEY and a few other areas had 50mph winds..

WASHINGTON, TX had a funnel cloud.

Trees down in KLEBERG, TX. One car hit.

Out of Brownsville there was reports of winds over 50mph & roof damage to a home. The winds continued in the Western Gulf of Mexico overnight with platforms seeing winds as high as 58mph.

Coastal flooding has become an issue in LA. Freshwater City & Holly Beach are reporting some roads under. CAMERON, LA was hit the worst with a tidal surge near 6 ft that covered most the streets and left debris from dumpsters, tanks, ice machines & a few telephone poles.

There were possible tornadoes in LAKEPOINT RESORT STATE BARBOUR, AL & CRAWFORD, AL. LEFLORE, MS Had downed power lines. 54mph winds in PIKE, KY. 61mph in HYDABURG, AK. Numerous powerlines down county wide around TWIGGS, GA. Actually trees are falling all over the Peachtree GA NWS area.. Trees also fell down & assaulted cars and buildings in Southern GA & AL area near Tally.

Creeks are rising in WNC. Little River in TRANSLVANIA & Mud River in HENDERSON counties are out of their banks. A tree hit a truck in GREENWOOD, SC.
Freezing Rain has begun in NY and PA. Roads are icing up. several accidents around LINCOLN, NY.

World Tropics
ADJALI may reprise on Tuesday.


96P


97S


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..

Severe Weather Snow

Ice Watching/Winter Forecast

By: Skyepony, 6:13 AM GMT on November 20, 2014

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Arctic refreeze is well under way as we near Winter Solstice. It seems later then some years but the trends of which areas of the Arctic are warmer or cooler are beginning to stand out. Bits of jet stream become entrenched either frequently dragging warm air into an area encouraging a greater ice loss anomaly or pushing air out of the Arctic, enabling ice to form along the edge in excess.

Figure 1 (right) Arctic sea ice extent for October 2014 was 8.06 million square kilometers (3.11 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1981 to 2010 median extent for that month. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. This is where the extent was a few weeks ago at the end of October. We can see sea ice on the Pacific side lacking as well as the west side of Greenland and north of Siberia.

Checking the animated Sea Ice Thickness Map (figure 2 below) is always telling. It can be startling the different areas that the multi-year sea ice piles up each year. It gives away the influences on the ice of the currents below and the flow of wind above. Ice can be seen pouring down the east coast of Greenland in the Greenland Sea. The thickest ice is piling up more on the north edge of North America this year as well. Though sea ice is beginning to expand & thicken toward Alaska, the Pacific & Siberia the general trend of the currents is to carry much of that toward North America.




Figure 3.
The Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (figure 3. above) reveal even more. The warmer than normal water off the Northeast United States is drawing heat up the west side of Greenland through the Baffin/Newfoundland Sea, drawing down it's sea ice anomaly a more noticeable ~200,000 sq km and causing an area of late season ice loss on the Northwest side of Greenland (Figure 4 below). This area is back where it was last spring. In the other extreme, cold spills down the east side of Greenland causing the Greenland Sea to have more sea ice than last year but still ~50,000sq km less than normal. On the Pacific side of things the sudden very positive PDO should continue to feed heat to Alaska, Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea & Beaufort Sea. North of Siberia has been warmer than normal except ex-nuri suddenly helped the Laptev Sea ice, located to the Northwest of Siberia recover.


Figure 4. Late season sea ice melt on the Northwest side of Greenland, just below the Arctic Circle.


Winter Forecast
Looking at these general trends in ice, currents and circulations, the cold seems to be generally flowing toward North America. With the Heat off the west coast and the way Alaska is drawing in heat the death ridge over the west coast will probably stay somewhat entrenched for now. UK shouldn't have it quite as bad as last year. More east & down toward Italy and just east of there may have it worse. West of Siberia & east of Siberia may be in for a little harsher than usual winter. Overall with the way El Nino seeds the atmosphere for precipitation, the events as of late and the added heat, I expect some crazy snowfall amounts this year. It may overall be a little stormer winter too.



World Tropics
ADJALI. It is located to the Northeast of Madagascar. Models move it to the Southwest.


96P


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..

Arctic Sea Ice Winter

Lake Effect Snow & Tropics

By: Skyepony, 6:09 AM GMT on November 19, 2014

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
With Arctic cold air pouring across The Great Lakes the snow machine has been turned on dumping feet of snow across some areas. Some parts of Buffalo, NY have had near 6 feet of snow fall already with two more lake effect snow events over the next few days expected. Some places may see more than 90inches. This maybe the worst snow effect event in 40 years. Authorities are having a difficult time getting the roads re-opened.

Four people have died so far. One was from a car wreck, the three others went into cardiac arrest while shoveling snow.





More snow is expected to fall..

STORM TOTALS WILL REACH 3 TO
4 FEET IN MANY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SOUTH
BUFFALO TO BATAVIA. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET FROM LACKAWANNA
TO LANCASTER AND ELMA FROM THE FIRST STORM ENDING ON WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 FEET IN THE SECOND STORM
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN PERSISTENT BANDS.
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS MAY AGAIN FOCUS ON THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS.


Churchill Downs Cancelled Races

Churchill Downs has cancelled races for Wednesday, due to the frozen muddy track conditions. This is the first cancelled card there since heat shut down the track June 28, 2012, the last time a Fall Meet race day at Churchill Downs was canceled because of wintry weather or a frozen track was Nov. 13, 1986. Wednesday's cancellation will be the 19th time weather cancelled races at the track and the sixth time due to a frozen track or snow.



World Tropics
ADJALI. It is located to the Northeast of Madagascar. Models move it to the Southwest.


97E is new off of Central America. There is a bit of a spread in the models so far.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..

Lake Effect Snow Tropics

New Surge Map & Severe Weather

By: Skyepony, 7:03 PM GMT on November 17, 2014

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NEW SURGE MAP
For those with interests near the coast the National Hurricane Center has released a National Map of Storm Surge Risk. You can select different categories of storm strength. Then simply zoom into a location & see how it would fare. For example the barrier island just a few miles east of here is close to being fully under 9 ft of water for a cat 5. I've included some screen shots of the largest most vulnerable areas, which are Southern Louisiana and Southwest Florida. These two maps are selected for a Category 5 storm. Areas in red represent land that would be under at least nine feet of storm surge during a category 5 storm surge. The orange shading denotes greater than 6 feet above ground of storm surge. Yellow indicates where at least 3 feet of water would be expected. While blue is for areas anticipating up to 3 feet of inundation.





Severe Weather Across the Southeast Today


Local Damage Reports from the line of storms coming across Florida show this line might hold together a bit. A Tornado Warning has been issued across Central FL this afternoon. Watches & warning cover most of central and north FL to up to the coastal regions of NC.


There has been many reports of severe weather across the south..

1230 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S LAKE CITY 30.13N 82.64W
11/17/2014 COLUMBIA FL TRAINED SPOTTER
SEVERAL TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS INTERSTATE 75.

1145 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 NE SUWANNEE RIVER STA 30.47N 83.11W
11/17/2014 HAMILTON FL 911 CALL CENTER
911 CALL CENTER RELAYED PUBLIC REPORT OF DAMAGE TO A HOME
AT 5750 SW 61ST AVE IN JASPER. EXTENT OF DAMAGE IS
UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. PUBLIC REPORT MENTIONED IT WAS
POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD REACHING THE GROUND AT THEIR
LOCATION.


1135 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW LEE 30.39N 83.31W
11/17/2014 MADISON FL EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN
ON BISBEE LOOP. TIME ESTIMATED BY
RADAR.

1055 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NNE CROWFIELD PLANTAT 33.03N 80.06W
11/17/2014 BERKELEY SC SOCIAL MEDIA
THE POST AND COURIER REPORTED VIA TWITTER THAT A LARGE
TREE FELL IN THE PARKING LOT OF THE GOOSE CREEK LOWES.
THE TREE FELL ONTO TWO VEHICLES.


Tornado damages prison in Florida Panhandle
A Florida prison was placed on restricted movement after a tornado damaged the fence around the facility.

0958 AM TORNADO 2 SSE MOUNT OLIVE 32.56N 83.37W
11/17/2014 TWIGGS GA NWS STORM SURVEY
NWS SURVEY BASED ON RADAR AND PHOTOS AND INFO PROVIDED
BY TWIGGS COUNTY DETERMINED EF1 TORNADO WITH WINDS OF
105 MPH DESTROYED SINGLE WIDE MOBILE HOME OFF LONGSTREET
RD IN SOUTHERN TWIGGS COUNTY. ONE BARN ALSO WAS DAMAGED
AND SEVERAL TREES DOWN. NO INJURIES WERE REPORTED.

0545 AM TORNADO SYCAMORE 30.58N 84.82W
11/17/2014 GADSDEN FL EMERGENCY MNGR
TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN GADSDEN COUNTY AT INTERSECTION OF
SYCAMORE AND WINDING CREEK RD.


World Tropics
95S is now the first Tropical Storm of the 2014-2015 Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Season 01S ADJALI. It is located to the Northeast of Madagascar. Models move it to the Southwest.


97E is new off of Central America. There is a bit of a spread in the models so far.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..

Surge Map Severe Weather

Weather Ahead

By: Skyepony, 6:18 PM GMT on November 16, 2014

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Looking Ahead~
Tracking ENSO ~ The ENSO Precipitation index (ESPI) plunged again this week and has crossed back into negative neutral territory and is now -0.01. This indicates that there is less rain falling in that region than what El Nino would produce. The atmosphere hasn't completely responded. There is a lot of heat in the area, last week region 3,4 was 0.8. The weak el nino conditions happening now, should continue at least a few weeks, if not a few months. It's still questionable if it will remain warm enough, long enough in that region to be declared official. SOI has responded but maybe peaked for now. It being negative is where is should be for El Nino conditions. So in that respect there has been some sort of atmospheric response. I'd add that the numbers of & general tracks of hurricanes in both the EPAC & Atlantic were what a typical strong El Nino would have brought. We got our near record arctic melt as well & most likely our warmest year in recent history.

I have to wunder if the drought in west is maybe sucking down some of those ESPI rain indices as well. The PDO has really changed this year to one that encourage or amplify an El Nino.


Today & Monday could bring snow to much of the central USA (Blue lines under precipitation here). Snow is being reported as far south as TX so far. There is a chance for possible severe weather for LA & MS, Carolina coastal may see a little weather as well. The heavier rain then moves toward upstate SC & WNC into later on Monday as the snow comes east some. It may leave a snow dusting down some of the Appalachians as it exits to the east. Florida may see a rainy day on Tuesday this week.


Wed-Friday shows rain for mostly central & northern CA.. Some of that energy may eventually get shunted into a Thanksgiving mess on the east coast


Central America deserves a mention with another week of rain. This may eventually be another invest for the EPAC.


Random snow totals...

0919 AM SNOW GUYMON 36.69N 101.48W
11/16/2014 E3.0 INCH TEXAS OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

1033 AM SNOW MOUND CITY 38.14N 94.82W
11/16/2014 E3.0 INCH LINN KS 911 CALL CENTER
ESTIMATED 3 INCHES SNOW. NUMEROUS SLIDE OFFS AND
ACCIDENTS
.

0946 AM SNOW 3 ESE ANGEL FIRE 36.38N 105.24W
11/16/2014 E13.0 INCH COLFAX NM PUBLIC
ANGEL FIRE SKI AREA.

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 E GROSS 42.95N 98.55W
11/16/2014 M7.0 INCH BOYD NE CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR TOTAL. SNOW DEPTH 7 IN.

0808 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
11/16/2014 M6.0 INCH MINERAL CO TRAINED SPOTTER


World Tropics
95S is now the first Tropical Storm of the 2014-2015 Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Season 01S ADJALI. It is located to the Northeast of Madagascar. Models move it to the Southwest.


97E is new off of Mexico. There is a bit of a spread in the models so far.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..

ENSO

Snow, Sinkholes, Waves & Tropics

By: Skyepony, 6:03 AM GMT on November 12, 2014

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SNOW
Some big snow total winners. The first four are three day snowfall totals. The last one from Lake, OH is about as east as the storm reports are coming from yet.

0712 AM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
11/14/2014 M50.1 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SINCE MONDAY. SINCE 1130 PM LAST
NIGHT 0.8 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATED. FLURRIES REPORTED
AT THE TIME OF THE OBSERVATION.

1132 PM HEAVY SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
11/13/2014 M49.3 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0315 PM SNOW 4 SSE BIG BAY 46.77N 87.68W
11/13/2014 M27.4 INCH MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC

3 DAY STORM TOTAL SNOW. 1.9 INCHES FELL
TODAY AFTER 830AM.

0200 PM SNOW 1 W IRONWOOD 46.46N 90.17W
11/13/2014 M34.0 INCH GOGEBIC MI PUBLIC

3 DAY STORM TOTAL SNOW. 10 INCHES OF SNOW
FELL TODAY.


0616 PM SNOW PAINESVILLE 41.71N 81.19W
11/13/2014 M11.5 INCH LAKE OH SNOW SPOTTER

12 HOUR SNOWFALL.

Heavy lake effect snow in Chardon, ohio


SinkholeCorvette Nation strikes back after sinkhole disaster

A special team of hotshot Corvette restorers has dealt a blow against an evil sinkhole that desecrated the National Corvette Museum in Bowling Green, Kentucky.
This week General Motors and Chevrolet unveiled the 2009 ZR1 Blue Devil -- the first of three damaged cars that will be restored from a disaster that stunned Corvette fans around the world.
Remember? Back in February, a freakish sinkhole appeared inside the museum, swallowing eight beautiful machines with an estimated value at about $1 million, the museum said. When the cars were hauled out of the hole, only three were deemed unscathed enough for restoration.
Hey, this is a big deal. Experts call the Corvette the most collected car in America. GM says it's the "world's longest-running, continuously produced passenger car."


Waves vs train. Update~ This answers the question from the last video, if sea soaked trains were the new norm? Doesn't look like it. The Dawlish trains have been cancelled for a second time this week.



95S


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..

96E FL Sinkhole

96E nears Mexico/Lava on the Move

By: Skyepony, 12:36 AM GMT on November 11, 2014

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
From NWS in Melbourne, FL..

...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE TODAY...

TODAY...THE MID/UPPER LAYER CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE FROM THE NE FL COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WRAP AROUND
CLOUDINESS SKIMMING NEAR THE VOLUSIA COAST AND NRN BREVARD COAST
THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/
EVENING. LOW LVL NNW/NW WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY AWAY FROM THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFFSHORE SO EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.




It's cold on the back side of that storm. Be sure to find something warm in your preparations for it.

41010 is on the left, the nor'easter is moving away from this buoy toward 41002 is on the right.




East Pacific
96E is producing alot of rain. In some areas offshore, the rain is falling at a rate of over an inch an hour. The white area here is where more than 8 inches has fallen in the last 12hrs. It is nearing Mexico. Most the models weaken this to a rain event by the time it make landfall. This could cause flooding & mudslides.




West Pacific
91W


Bay of Bengal
99W



Lava on the Loose in Hawaii

Lava from Kilauea volcano is creeping into the small town of Pahoa on Hawaii's big island. The volcano has been erupting since 1983 but in June new fissures opened up sending lava in a new direction. Dirt escape routes have been made for some that would otherwise be cut off. Houses are expected to be lost in this. Tourism and the local economy has picked up with visitors coming to see the lava come thru town. Recent updates can be found here. Latest is posted below...

The first house was claimed by the lava late yesterday morning.. The renters had already moved out. Earlier in the morning a corrugated shed on the same property was lost. One of the owner's family was planning to attend event. Authorities are allowing owners, family and such watch houses be taken for closure & to document for insurance claims.





For more history on the area Barefootontherocks shared this book, "The Legends and Myths of Hawaii".
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..

ECFL Pahoa lava 96E

The Week Ahead/Flood, Hail & Lava

By: Skyepony, 5:09 PM GMT on November 09, 2014

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
St Martin And parts of the islands were flooded by that atmosphiric river of water the last few days..

Just weeks after Sint Maarten/Saint Martin was hit by Hurricane Gonzalo, the island was under Heavy Rainfall Warning. These are the results.


Extreme hail video of the week...

Hailstorm Londolozi2

And for blog of the week check out DanFein's blog with this excellent lite-brite like map, a light with WUnderPWS data..






RAIN
Enjoying gentle rain here in East Central Florida. 0.39" so far. Nearly constant since last evening but light with fine drops of precipitation and infrequent lightning. It's cold too, 62.1ºF. Rain should continue through today for the peninsula. Coastal areas & South Florida may see more rain through early Monday afternoon as a low develops east of Cape Canaveral.


Things may go cold and crazy this week from ex-Nuri plowing into the arctic, splitting the polar air and spilling it down both sides of the globe. Early to mid week should be some snow in the Midwest, Great lakes region and then into Canada. Still looks possible that Friday on into the weekend, a Nor'easter could form over the Carolinas then head north along the coast with a significant impact.





East Pacific
96E


West Pacific
99W


Bay of Bengal 05B



Lava on the Loose in Hawaii

Lava from Kilauea volcano is creeping into the small town of Pahoa on Hawaii's big island. The volcano has been erupting since 1983 but in June new fissures opened up sending lava in a new direction. Dirt escape routes have been made for some that would otherwise be cut off. Houses are expected to be lost in this. Tourism and the local economy has picked up with visitors coming to see the lava come thru town. Recent updates can be found here. Latest is posted below...

The leading edge of the June 27th lava flow has not advanced since October 30. Upslope of the flow tip, however, multiple lava breakouts remain active. The breakout closest to the stalled leading edge is north of the Pāhoa cemetery, about 540 meters (590 yards) upslope of Pāhoa Village Road.

According to the Hawaii County Civil Defense overflight this morning and HVO ground observations later in the day, additional small breakouts are active near the Pāhoa cemetery and just south of the Transfer Station. A new breakout along the narrow section of flow about 550 m (600 yards) upslope of Apaʻa St. / Cemetery Road extended about 160 m (175 yards) downslope over the past day burning vegetation along its margin. The lobe of lava extending north from the Kaohe Homesteads area also remains active.

A minor summit inflation signal was recorded over the past 24 hours. The tiltmeter at Puʻu ʻŌʻō was repaired yesterday and data appear to be stabilizing.



A lava flow that threatens the small town of Pahoa near the Kilauea volcano continues to stall at its front edge, with molten rock oozing out of the sides of the lava flow.

For more history on the area Barefootontherocks shared this book, "The Legends and Myths of Hawaii".
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..

Ex-Nuri Nor'Easter 05B St Martin Flooding Extreme Hail

More from AMS Conference & Pahoa

By: Skyepony, 6:54 PM GMT on November 07, 2014

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Vicariously Hanging Out at the AMS Local Storms Conference
Following the Twitter feed of the Severe Local Storms Conference to the conclusion today.. Alot of great info has been shared..

Tweeted by Jeff Frame ‏@VORTEXJeff 1d1 day ago
Problems with current EF scale, including bias toward urban areas with more damage indicators #SLS14



In a separate presentation Blair talked on supercells. He has been part of the research on hail that can be found here at HailSTORM. Points made were~
→Only 6% of supercells sampled did not produce hail that was at least 2 inches in diameter.
→When large hail is involved (+1.75") the NWS hail forecast is usually underdone.
→Storm data doesn't usually reflect the largest hail that could be found after a hail storm.


Here's some big waves on Lake Michigan earlier this week..


RAIN
Interesting set up with the low in the northeast tapping into Vance's moisture. May see a cut off low form over TX & then Meander into the Gulf of Mexico then maybe Florida toward the end of the weekend with a front.

WPC rainfall forecast, 24hr & 5 days total.


Geos-5 is showing most of the rain coming through on Sunday. North Florida maybe mostly missed. NEFL may get some.


Further out in the forecast chance of a Tropical storm in the SW Caribbean on Wednesday.. Even further, not this weekend but next could be another nor'easter.



East Pacific
96E


West Pacific
99W


Bay of Bengal 05B



Lava on the Loose in Hawaii

Lava from Kilauea volcano is creeping into the small town of Pahoa on Hawaii's big island. The volcano has been erupting since 1983 but in June new fissures opened up sending lava in a new direction. Dirt escape routes have been made for some that would otherwise be cut off. Houses are expected to be lost in this. Tourism and the local economy has picked up with visitors coming to see the lava come thru town. Recent updates can be found here. Latest is posted below...


This map uses a satellite image acquired in March 2014 (provided by Digital Globe) as a base to show the area around the front of the June 27th lava flow. The area of the flow on November 5, 2014, at 1:00 PM is shown in pink, while widening and advancement of the flow as mapped on November 7 at 3:30 PM is shown in red.

The June 27th flow has moved no closer to Pāhoa Village Road, but breakouts continue along the edges and interior of the flow in several places, including near the Pāhoa cemetery, the transfer station, and north of Kaohe Homesteads. There were also a few breakouts well upslope, closer to Puʻu ʻŌʻō.




For more history on the area Barefootontherocks shared this book, "The Legends and Myths of Hawaii".
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..

AMS Local Storms Conference 2014 Pahoa lava

AMS Conference/Watching Lava

By: Skyepony, 4:59 AM GMT on November 06, 2014

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Vicariously Hanging Out at the AMS Local Storms Conference
Today on this Twitter feed of the Severe Local Storms conference there was a link to NOAA's new Experimental Severe Prediction Center page. Here's a presentation on how climate change maybe responsible for the decrease in tornado days & the increase in the number of tornadoes during tornado outbreaks.

I know I posted this lastnight but this is a new version with the speaker. It was worth watching twice before, with the words it's certainly worth another watch.


High resolution radar loops from May 20, 2013 Moore tornado were impressive.

This dataset is from the 20 May 2013 Moore EF5 tornado, and was collected by the University of Oklahoma Advanced Radar Research Center's PX-1000 radar system. PX-1000 is a transportable, X-band, polarimetric weather radar that operates at 100 W on each channel (H and V). Data sensitivity and resolution are recovered using advanced high-sensitivity waveform design and pulse compression methods, and the blind range is filled with a time-frequency multiplexed fill pulse. Data are taken at 2.6-deg elevation, and temporal resolution is 20 seconds. Native spatial resolutions are 112 m in range, and 1.8 deg in azimuth (2.0 effective), and are oversampled to 30 m and 1.0 deg, respectively.


Here was from How Terran Affects Tornadoes..


RAIN
Interesting set up with the low in the northeast tapping into Vance's moisture. May see a cut off low form over TX & then Meander into the Gulf of Mexico then maybe Florida toward the end of the weekend.

WPC rainfall forecast, 24hr & 5 days total.


Atlantic~ 97L is new.


East Pacific
96E


West Pacific
99W


90W


20W NURI




Bay of Bengal 05B



Lava on the Loose in Hawaii

Lava from Kilauea volcano is creeping into the small town of Pahoa on Hawaii's big island. The volcano has been erupting since 1983 but in June new fissures opened up sending lava in a new direction. Dirt escape routes have been made for some that would otherwise be cut off. Houses are expected to be lost in this. Tourism and the local economy has picked up with visitors coming to see the lava come thru town. Recent updates can be found here. Latest is posted below...

Activity Summary: Kīlauea volcano continued to erupt at its summit and within its East Rift Zone, and gas emissions remained elevated. As of Wednesday morning, the leading edge of the June 27th lava flow had not advanced beyond where it stalled late last week, in a residential area approximately 155 meters (170 yards) above Pāhoa Village Road. Activity continued behind the lava flow's leading edge, within the flow's interior, and along its side margins, with localized breakouts of molten lava. As reported by Hawaii County Civil Defense, active lava lobes persisted ~1 to 2.5 km (0.7 to 1.5 miles) upslope of Apaʻa Street, and along the north side of the flow there, advancing in a north-northeast direction. Only very minor tilt occurred at Kīlauea's summit, and the level of the summit lava lake at Halemaʻumaʻu Crater dropped by 5 m (5 yards) from the previous day.

With the stall in lava around the leading edge there has been no new graphics by the USGS the last few days.


LATEST FOOTAGE OF THE PAHOA LAVA FLOW AS OF 11/4/14. VIDEO FOOTAGE COURTESY OF THE COUNTY OF HAWAI`I.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..

AMS Local Storms Conference Nuri 97L Pahoa lava What Not

Storms Peak / Lava Seeps into a Pond

By: Skyepony, 4:45 AM GMT on November 04, 2014

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Started watching this Twitter feed of the Severe Local Storms conference. They had their tribute to those lost from the chaser & meteorology world tonight. Also had this excellent tornado presentation.

Genesis and maintenance of a long-track EF5 tornado embedded within a supercell thunderstorm. There are some absolutely incredible tornado visualizations and perspectives in this.

Orf, Wilhelmson, Wicker, Lee and Finley (2014). Talk 3B.3 at the Severe Local Storms Conference, November 2, 2014, Madison.


Interesting set up with the low north of the Great Lakes tapping into Vance's moisture. Texas should be the winner of rain tomorrow in this odd jet stream play.

WPC rainfall forecast, 24hr & 5 days total.



East Pacific
21E VANCE The Models for Vance are pointed back toward Mexico. With the other invests and all, this is a tough storm to forecast but now it's getting caught up in that passing front.. It has been long lived and may have peaked today around 957.8mb. May weaken to a tropical storm in 48 hrs for landfall. Flooding and landslides could be issues.




95E


West Pacific
20W NURI




Bay of Bengal * 91B *




Lava on the Loose in Hawaii

Lava from Kilauea volcano is creeping into the small town of Pahoa on Hawaii's big island. The volcano has been erupting since 1983 but in June new fissures opened up sending lava in a new direction. Dirt escape routes have been made for some that would otherwise be cut off. Houses are expected to be lost in this. Tourism and the local economy has picked up with visitors coming to see the lava come thru town.

This is the area around the front of the lava flow coming into Pahoa. The red is the movement in the last day. In the last 24hrs there hasn't been much forward movement but the front of the flow did widen.

Credit:USGS..more detailed information and maps can be found there.



Video via: County of Hawaii. This shows the right side of the leading edge of the flow coming to the pond that can also be seen in the above satellite with flow overlay.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..

Vance Pahoa lava Nuri


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.