Skyepony's WunderBlog

Tropical New Year

By: Skyepony, 6:16 AM GMT on December 31, 2014

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Wishing Everyone a year of beauty, amazement, growth, health and fun.. May your glass be filled and good dreams come to pass.

As 2014 ends it's an exciting time to look ahead. With the state of the weather, seems a chaotic but prosperous year lays ahead with opportunities for growth abound. There is alot of warm water in the Pacific ocean still, the atmosphere refuses to play & pool it to the west for a proper El Nino. Either way the ENSO seeds for rain have been let loose and rain brings growth among floods and landslides. Atmospheric indicators are pointing back to another quick switch to La Nina conditions and then another Kelvin wave to release some more heat. 2014 brought a warm year.. 2015 the heat may show impact to the Arctic ice with a substantial melt, as well as another year of alot of rain globally. Tropically, my early thoughts are the Atlantic may see an active year.

Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.
The warm spells of January are an excellent time to not only weed & feed but rearrange the FL garden. Crops should be rotates as successive plantings go in through out the season to starve out pests. * means last month to plant.

North FL is planting more this month, nearly the full season range of veggies. Plant beets, Broccoli, Brussel sprouts, cabbage, Carrots, cauliflower, celery, kale, Kohlrabi, leek, Mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

Central FL The 1st tastes of summer get planted this month & just about all the cool season veggies..plant eggplant, peppers, tomatoes, watermelon, beets, broccoli*, cabbage*, carrots, cauliflower*, celery, collards, kale*, kohlrabi, leek, lettuce, mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

South FL Plant everything except cantaloupe, okra, sweet potatoes & strawberries.

Planting Calender
December 2014
30th-31st Fine for planting beans, peppers, cucumbers, melons, and other aboveground crops where climate is suitable.
January 2015
1st Fine for planting beans, peppers, cucumbers, melons, and other aboveground crop where climate is suitable.
2nd-3rd Poor days for planting. Seeds tend to rot in ground.
4th-5th Most fruitful time for planting beets, carrots, onions, and other hardy root crops in the Deep South. Good for starting seedbeds and flowers. Good days for transplanting.
6th-10th A barren time. Clear wood lots and fence rows.
11th-13th Favorable day for planting root crops. Fine for sowing grains, hay, and forage crops. Plant flowers.
14th-15th Plant carrots, turnips, onions, beets, Irish potatoes, and other root crops in the South. Lettuce, cabbage, collards and other leafy vegetables will do well. Start seedbeds. Good days for transplanting.
16th-18th Seeds planted now will grow poorly and yield little.
19th-20th First two days good for planting root crops where the climate permits. Last day good for planting aboveground crops such as sweet corn, beans, peppers in Southern Florida, Texas, and California.
21st-22nd Poor for planting. Do plowing.
23rd-24th Fine for planting any aboveground crop where climate permits. Extra good for peppers, tomatoes, peas, and other vine crops.
25th-26th Barren days, do no planting.
27th-28th Fine for planting beans, peppers, cucumbers, melons, and other aboveground crop where climate is suitable.
29th-30th Poor days for planting. Seeds tend to rot in ground.
31st Best planting day for aboveground crops, especially peas, beans, cucumbers, and squash where climate is suitable. Plant seedbeds and flower gardens.

Best Days to do things..
Dec30-31~ Dig, cut for growth, advertise to sell
Jan1-2 Dig, cut, buy clothes, travel, write
Jan3 Date, bake, host a party, write
Jan4-5 harvest, can, slaughter, entertain
Jan6-7 Harvest, Dry fruits & veg, cut to retard growth, quit things, start a diet, Demolish
Jan8-9 Quit things, entertain



Tropics..
Southern Hemisphere
04S KATE



97S


98S




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January Garden New Year

2014 Weather Images & Memes

By: Skyepony, 4:01 AM GMT on December 27, 2014

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2014 had some pretty memorable weather moments captured in pictures.. Wunderground members also came up with some pretty creative weather art capturing the highs and lows of the different seasons. I've selected some from the ones I thought to save. Many were satellite grabs or creator unknown so if anyone sees their work displayed and would like to take credit for it, please do..

Looking over the lot it was just easiest to judge them in categories..

Best Strong Storm~ Cyclone Halong


Weak Storm~ 92L


Friendly Looking Storm~ Matmo after Taiwan


Not So Friendly Looking Storm~ 95W


Best Photoshopped Weather Explanation


Pretty tough to pick an El Niño winner..


Ice Bucket Winner


The ECMWF Weatherbell fight..


& Climate Change


Feel free to leave any ones I might have left out in the comments below.


Tropics..
West Pacific
23W JANGMI



Indian Ocean
95B



Southern Hemisphere
04S KATE



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2014 Best Weather Images Tropics Kate

Extreme Drought Tactics

By: Skyepony, 9:28 PM GMT on December 22, 2014

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San Diego has again approved Toilet to Tap~ This was an interesting article from the perspective of someone that had worked in water works there, when this idea of spending billions for toilet to tap was considered some time ago. By their figure this whole toilet to tap idea fails because eventually all you are left with is sewage water & there still won't be enough to go around..


Cloud Seeding Drones~ Here is an embedded snip-it of a news cast that introduces the idea on Feb 26, 2014.



News is out today that Meteorologist Jeff Tilley and his team at Nevada’s Desert Research Institute in Reno who is working on this project stated that the type of cloud seeding that has been going on for 60 years can produces as much as 1 billion gallons of water for every 25 to 45 hours in flight, between the weight of the pilot, limited flight time and for safety reasons them needing to stay above the clouds..when that extra price is factored out in their drone-seeding studies the cost of cloud seeding is dropped by half from using the drone.


Holiday Weather





Holiday Music.. Skyepony Band practicing Christmas Time is Here Again..


Tropics..
West Pacific
99W


Indian Ocean
95B


Southern Hemisphere
94P


04S KATE


96P





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Extreme Drought Tactics Cloud Seeding Drones Toilet to Tap Holiday Storms

Winter Solstice

By: Skyepony, 3:28 PM GMT on December 20, 2014

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Happy Solstice Everyone! Surprised no Stonehenge party footage is out yet..



Aceh Tsunami: When the Waves Came Crashing...nearly ten years later...

Published on Dec 19, 2014
TODAY speaks to various people in Aceh about their experiences during the tsunami. For many, the painful memories are still vivid.



Holiday Weather
Watching the beginnings of these storms pull together.. Quick look at the Storm Reports shows snow here & there, even a little in NC.







Swirl Watching
in the Central Atlantic..


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Aceh Tsunami Holiday Weather

RIP Bob/Flood Data/Wx Ahead

By: Skyepony, 5:38 PM GMT on December 19, 2014

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RIP Bob Simpson
Robert (Bob) Simpson died peacefully in his sleep lastnight after a long life of 102years. He and Saffir created the Saffir/Simpson Scale for hurricanes.. Photo & this..Via NOAA: “Robert Simpson, original director of the Hurricane Research Project, and his wife Joanne Simpson, head of Project STORMFURY, in Roosevelt Roads NAS, Puerto Rico in 1964. STORMFURY was a government project that investigated the effect of silver iodide to “seed” hurricanes and decrease their intensity. Hurricane modification studies dominated NHRL research for many years.”


Centralizing national flood data in the cloud can help reduce loss of life and property

Published on Dec 18, 2014
Researchers from the University of Texas partnered with other researchers, federal agencies, and first responders to create the National Flood Interoperability Experiment (NFIE). They used Microsoft Azure to build a new national flood data-modeling and mapping system with the potential to provide life- and cost-saving information to the public. The goals of the NFIE include standardizing data, demonstrating a scalable solution, and helping to close the gap between national flood forecasting and local emergency response.


Holiday Weather for the East Coast
The beginnings of this system are pulling together today over TX. A little pea sized hail has been reported so far in WILLIAMSON, TX. This system should move across the northern gulf region with mostly rain, then hang across the SE and mostly North Florida. When the tail of a second system which today is just south of Alaska, interacts with the stalled system from TX pulling moisture from the gulf, things should get interesting. These two should collide late the 23rd or early the 24th & move very quickly across on Dec 24th which should increase shear & severe weather chances.. With the heat of the first storm the NE may see more rain though as the low pulls north The Cumberland Flats & areas in Appalachia might get left with a white Christmas.






Tropics
are overall quiet..
92S


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Robert Simpson Flood Data on Cloud Holiday Storm

Tropics & What Not

By: Skyepony, 5:34 AM GMT on December 18, 2014

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This tornado video was published today. It is of the Reno tornado that happened 5-31-13. It was a monster. These guys got hit by some debris from one tornado & I think was sheltering at the airport from another.



Cute kitten playing in snow..


Tropics

94A


92S


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Reno tornado kitten in snow Tropics

Tropics & Hazards

By: Skyepony, 6:22 AM GMT on December 17, 2014

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Two of the Three tornadoes reported in Mississippi on Monday have been confirmed as touchdowns.

The Warren County tornado touched down just before 6 p.m. about one mile north of Bovina along Tucker Road. It then tracked 1.2 miles on the ground with a path width of 75 yards. With winds of 85 mph, the tornado caused minor damage to a house and mobile home along with tree and power line damage before lifting on Tiffintown Road.

The Smith County tornado touched down just after 5 p.m. about 4.5 miles southwest of Mize near the intersection of county roads 61 and 50. It then tracked 1.5 miles on the ground with a path width of 50 yards, causing roof damage to a chicken house along with some tree damage before lifting near the intersection of county roads 50A and 50.

A funnel cloud along with some minor tree damage was also reported in Simpson County near Shivers with the same storm that produced the Smith County tornado. However, NWS did not confirm a tornado in this area.



Winter Party Dangers..
A storm claimed a Bemidji State University student in Minnesota that had too much to drink, fell in a creek & then passed out before making it to shelter and froze to death.



Looking at the local storm reports started raining in CA again. San Francisco area several on/off ramps were flooded, couple of mudslides blocking roads & a tree across a highway.

Tropics

94A


92S


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Tornadoes, Snow and Working in the Heat

By: Skyepony, 2:55 PM GMT on December 15, 2014

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WEATHER AND THE ECONOMY

The National Bureau of Economic Research released a yet to be reviewed paper today stating that higher temperatures are bad for the economy.. This has been known in third world countries but it was assumed that air conditioning off set this in more developed countries.

It was found that days where the average temperature was 77ºF American workers lost an average of $5 a day compared to a cooler day. Overall economic productivity decreased by nearly 1 % for every degree Fahrenheit that the average daily temperature is above 59ºF.

The study found the most productive average daily temperature to be 59ºF, which is days where the high is ~70ºF.


TORNADOES, HAIL AND SNOW FOR KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA

Sunday was an odd weather day for KS and OK as they had both severe weather and snow. Rush, Kansas had 3/4inch hail, Norton had 1-2 inches of snow & Harper had a short lived tornado. Oklahoma had hail up to 2 inches, wind gust to 65mpoh in Coal, with a brief tornado that caused no damage in ARCADIA and another touchdown in Apache.

CO is also got some snow. Rabbit Ears Pass had 17.8 INCH from this latest storm. Yuma reported 6inches.

Here is the tornado near Harper, KS..



Tropics

03S BAKUNG is the only storm out there. It looks like it is fading away sitting in the same spot.


97W is new. This is the Hanging Monsoon that is threatening to cause landslides in the Philippines.


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VT Outage, NM Snow & WX Ahead

By: Skyepony, 4:39 PM GMT on December 14, 2014

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VERMONT POWER OUTAGE
The Northeast took some damage in their epic wet & heavy snowstorm this last week. Vermont is still recovering from it's largest power outage in years. It was worse than Irene in 2011 and a serious ice storm in 1998. Over 100,000 customers were affected. Over 12,000 still don't have power. It could take through the weekend to restore electricity. People without electricity are being asked to reach out to friends with electricity for shelter. During the air tour power lines could be seen encased in 8-10inches of ice. 19.5inches fell in Orwell, VT.



SNOW FOR NEW MEXICO
Snow fell overnight in near freezing temps in New Mexico. Highest amount from the Local Storm Reports was 7 inches estimated at Ski Santa Fe. Some of the icy precipitation turned to slush and/or ice causing numerous wrecks. I-40 had a long delay after a tractor trailer jackknifed.



WEATHER THIS WEEK
This storm is expected to travel east and may cause severe weather overnight & into early tomorrow across OK, MS, AK & MO. Note the next rain storm moving into parched CA..


Then the storm is expected to move more north toward the Great Lakes area and snow on the early week before heading into Canada as it's weak frontal tail sweeps the Southeast.. While the rain (snow for the north and high altitudes) settles into the West Coast for a few days. That storm should not be near as heavy with rain as the last.



Tropics

03S BAKUNG is the only storm out there. It looks like it is fading away sitting in the same spot.



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Landslides & Tropics

By: Skyepony, 5:06 PM GMT on December 13, 2014

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The heavy rains have yielded to landslides.

Indonesia had a large one Friday in Sampang village, Banjarnegara regency in Central Java, after having a few smaller ones earlier in the week. 105 homes were buried. Over 200 hundred people were rescued, 18 bodies have been found and ~90 are still missing. Over 400 have been forced into shelters. Some escaped with their family after fleeing from the terrible roar & rain of red soil.

California~ Camarillo Springs~ 10 homes were deemed inhabitable after being hit by landslides. One elderly couple needed rescued after not heeding a voluntary evacuation. Mud and water washed through their bedroom. Firefighters in Orange County attempted a rescue but the man was already dead & stuck to the center pillar of a drainage tunnel. Two more were rescued out of trees in the Los Angeles River.

Mudslides also closed parts of the Pacific Coast Highway from Monterey County down to Huntington.

Two died and a third was seriously injured from falling trees in Oregon from that storm.

Highest winds were WOODACRE RAWS with 71 MPH. Most rain ...SONOMA... VENADO 7 NNW GUERNEVILLE with 10.36 IN NWS did a write up on this storm, that can be found here. Below is rain totals and a pic of the three cars drowned under an overpass in Berkeley..




Philippines~ PAGASA has issued warnings that landslides may occur in Eastern Visayas from a low pressure area (a hanging monsoon) causing heavy rain.


Tropics

03S BAKUNG is the only storm out there. Models have it staying fairly stationary. Big spread in intensity. I'd guess not getting that strong sitting in the same spot.



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Indonesia Landslide California Mudslide

Extreme Storms and Tropics

By: Skyepony, 5:00 AM GMT on December 10, 2014

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There is a few large storms out there affecting the Northeast & West Coast.







There is also a bomb affecting the UK and Europe.




Tropics

22W Hagupit


NOAA's ADT..

96W


03S BAKUNG



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Nor'Easter West Coast Storm The Bomb Argentina Storm Hagupit Ruby

Hagupit Surge & Toll

By: Skyepony, 6:45 PM GMT on December 08, 2014

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Hagupit last made landfall on San Juan in Batangas province, about 60 miles south of the capital Manila, with maximum sustained winds of 53mph and gusts of 62mph. It has since been downgraded to a Tropical storm. Concerns of storm surge are still high. More than 2500 were moved from low areas around the tourist town of San Juan. 220 hunkered down in a gymnasium.

According to Manila mayor Joseph Estrada over 5000 are currently evacuated from the shanty town along the bay on the south side of Manilla for fear of storm surge. Sandbags were placed along the bay in areas that would protect the tourist downtown district.

The death toll from Hagupit is up to 27, with 16 of those being from villagers who drowned in Eastern Samar province, where the typhoon made its first landfall.

Humanitarian workers were also facing challenges coping with the sheer number of people relying on evacuation centers for support.

"Health issues are kind of difficult when you have 900,000 people crammed into rescue centers," Gordon said, raising concerns about sanitation and respiratory illnesses in particular.


A Filipino man carries a plastic sheet from his house after strong waves from Typhoon Hagupit battered a coastal village in Legazpi, Albay province (AP)


Pambujan, Northern Samar Storm Surge | Typhoon Hagupit


Extreme Typhoon Ruby / Hagupit sky before and destruction after


Boracay Cam

San Sebastian (east of Manila)

22W Hagupit



NOAA's ADT..

CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) intensity estimate.


Precipitation over the last week.. Current 3 hr rainfall rates, Quicktime & MPEG movies can be found here.


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Hagupit Hagupit Storm Surge Ruby Ruby Storm Surge

Hagupit Weakens, Damage Assessment Begins

By: Skyepony, 4:08 PM GMT on December 07, 2014

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Reports from the Philippines indicate Hagupit is having a gentler passage than Haiyan did. There is widespread power outages, tin roofs & shanties didn't fare well. There was some shallow flooding. Atleast three have died. One was hit by a tree, two including a baby girl died of hypothermia at the height of the storm. Two other women were injured when their bike taxi was hit by a falling tree. Over all stronger building and shelters fared okay. The highest winds measured were 140 kilometers (87 miles) per hour with gusts of 170 kph (106 mph).


Displaced villagers were asked to return home from emergency shelters in provinces where the danger posed by the typhoon had waned, including Albay, where more than half a million people were advised to leave evacuation sites.

Nearly 12,000 villagers, however, will remain in government shelters in Albay because their homes lie near a restive volcano.


Precipitation over the last week.. Current 3 hr rainfall rates, Quicktime & MPEG movies can be found here.


Boracay Cam

San Sebastian (east of Manila)

Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) directly hit Tuburan, Cebu, PH


22W Hagupit



NOAA's ADT..

CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) intensity estimate.





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Hagupit Typoon Ruby

Typhoon Hagupit/Ruby

By: Skyepony, 6:16 PM GMT on December 06, 2014

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Boracay Cam

San Sebastian (east of Manila)

Here is a wundercam south of Manila, located in Malabonot.





When Yolanda hit the Philippines, there was a lack of mapped hazards. PAGASA had already begun to put together a product called project NOAH to fill this gap. Unfortunately the program had barely begun when Yolanda made landfall. NOAH worked hard after that to create hazard maps for those areas first. Even though all of the Philippines isn't completed yet the parts that should be affected by Hagupit (Ruby) are done. The main NOAH model can be found here. The how to use it PDF is here. They have also made lists for the areas expecting the worst conditions where detailed maps for each.

Flood~ Official list of localities: Flood susceptible municipalities for Typhoon Ruby

Landslides~ Official list of localities: Landslide susceptible municipalities for Typhoon Ruby

Storm Surge~ Official list of localities: Typhoon Ruby (Hagupit) Storm Surge Advisory




22W Hagupit



NOAA's ADT..

CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) intensity estimate.





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Hagupit Ruby

Hagupit/Ruby Hazard Maps

By: Skyepony, 12:24 AM GMT on December 06, 2014

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When Yolanda hit the Philippines, like has there always been, there was a lack of mapped hazards. PAGASA had already begun to put together a product called prodject NOAH to fill this gap. Unfortunately the program had barely begun when Yolanda made landfall. NOAH worked hard after that to create hazard maps for those areas first. Even though all of the Philippines isn't completed yet the parts that should be affected by Hagupit (Ruby) are done. The main NOAH model can be found here. The how to use it PDF is here. They have also made lists for the areas expecting the worst conditions. I've included the worst of the surge areas below. Other lists are:

Official list of localities: Flood susceptible municipalities for Typhoon Ruby

Official list of localities: Landslide susceptible municipalities for Typhoon Ruby


Storm Surge
Hagupit is bringing a large storm surge.. Here is a current list of expected surges. Below is a list of the places expecting 3 meters or more of storm surge. Click on the municipality to see a map with the forecast storm surge..


MUNICIPALITY SURGE HEIGHT (meters)
Santa Rita, Samar4.7 – 5.7
Babatngon, Leyte4.7 – 5.7
Catbalogan , Samar4.5 – 5.5
Gandara, Samar4.5 – 5.5
Sta. Margarita, Samar4.5 – 5.5
Tarangnan, Samar4.5 – 5.5
Talalora, Samar4.4 – 5.4
Daram, Samar3.6 – 4.6
Calbiga, Samar3.5 – 4.5
Jiabong, Samar3.5 – 4.5
Motiong, Samar3.5 – 4.5
Paranas, Samar3.5 – 4.5
Pinabacdao, Samar3.5 – 4.5
San Sebastian, Samar3.5 – 4.5
Zumarraga, Samar3.5 – 4.5
Villareal, Samar3.5 – 4.5
Mobo, Masbate3.3 – 4.3
Uson, Masbate3.3 – 4.3
Culaba, Biliran3.2 – 4.2
Kawayan, Biliran3.2 – 4.2
Barugo, Leyte3.2 – 4.2
San Miguel, Leyte3.2 – 4.2
Medellin, Cebu3.1 – 4.1
San Remigio, Cebu3.1 – 4.1
Cawayan, Masbate3.1 – 4.1
Placer, Masbate3.1 – 4.1
Carigara, Leyte3.0 – 4.0
Albuera, Leyte3.0 – 4.0
Baybay, Leyte3.0 – 4.0
Buenavista, Quezon3.0 – 4.0
Caibiran, Biliran3.0 – 4.0
San Narciso, Quezon3.0 – 4.0
Daanbantayan, Cebu3.0 – 4.0
credit: DOST Project NOAH, PAGASA Storm Surge Component


Unlike a tsunami that comes in waves, a storm surge is blown in like water piling up from a large fan. The storm surge rolls in very fast and stays for as long as the storm is pushing and piling it there. The best way to survive a storm surge is to evacuate if one is expected in your location.

If you ever do find yourself in a storm surge:
~Remain calm.
~Get on top of floating debris or up in a structure or tree if possible.
~If there is nothing to climb up on, float on your back with your feet up, hands outstretched behind your head shielding from debris & keep your head slightly up so you can see where your feet are going. Keep your feet in front of you while heading in the direction the water is going.

22W Hagupit



NOAA's ADT..

CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) intensity estimate.





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Hagupit Hagupit Storm Surge Typhoon Ruby Ruby Flood Ruby landslide Ruby Storm Surge

Hagupit / Orion Launch

By: Skyepony, 9:58 PM GMT on December 03, 2014

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World Tropics

22W Hagupit



NOAA's ADT..

CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) intensity estimate.


Ocean Heat Content



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Hagupit

December Garden

By: Skyepony, 4:17 AM GMT on December 01, 2014

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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.
December is busy gardening in FL..Leafy harvest coming in..Planting opportunities galore. NFL is mostly cruising on cool weather foods. CFL is heavily planting winter fare. SFL is planting winter & some summer things. Maybe a good year for corn toward the south end of Florida. Happy planting & don't forget some fluffy mulch like raked up leaves or old hay to mulch & protect from occasional cold.

North FL beets, Broccoli, cabbage, Carrots, kale, Kohlrabi, Mustard, onions, parsley, radish.

Central FL beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, collards, kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, parsley, english peas, radish.

South FL all beans, corn, cucumber, eggplant, beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, collards, kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, parsley, all peas, radish, spinach & turnips.

When to Plant What From Seed
1st-2nd Cut to increase growth, cut firewood & bake.
3rd-4th Plant beans, peppers, cucumbers, melons, and other above ground crops where weather is suitable. Mow to increase growth, cut firewood, Dig Holes, Wax Floors, Paint, Get Married, Advertise to Sell, Buy Clothes
5th-7th Do farm Chores. Cut Hair to Retard Growth, Quit things like Smoking, Wash & Clean, make big purchases, Party, Write, Slaughter
8th-9th Plant root crops where climate allows. Plant seedbeds and flower gardens. Good days for transplanting. Can, Hunt, Brew & Slaughter.
10th-14th Do farm chores and kill weeds and pests.. Dry Fruits and Vegetables, Cut to Retard Growth, Dig, Harvest, Quit Things, Perform Demolition, Wash, Paint, Start Diet to Lose Weight, Ask for Loan, Entertain & Party
15th-17th Plant everything your climate is suited for.
18th-19th Plant and transplant.
20th-21st Do no planting.
22nd-23rd Plant above ground crops where climate is suitable.
24th-25th Do no planting.
26th-27th Plant above ground crops where suited. Extra good days for vine crops.
28th-29th
30th-31st Plant above ground crops..


Guess What is Growing in My Garden..


Feel free to share what is growing in yours..

Happy Growing Everyone!



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December Garden Tropics


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.