Skyepony's WunderBlog

Maysak, Invests Galore & Sea Ice

By: Skyepony, 2:26 PM GMT on March 29, 2015

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Sea Ice Comes Up Short of Peak
The Arctic Sea ice made a late attempt at another peak for the winter. It was expected to improve once the parade of ice wrecking storms stopped and it did. How much it would improve was one to wait and see and now that may have come to pass. The earliest and still standing peak of this winter was 2/25/2015 with 14.536 million km², a new record low. After which the weather pattern became unfavorable til 3/11/2015 when 14.280 million km² remained. The ice had recovered again until 3/27/2015 when a second, lower peak was reached of 14.452 million km² of Arctic Sea Ice. By 3/28/2015 the amount had fallen again to 14.21 million km².




TROPICS
92S is new.

04W MAYSAK




Chuuk - Typhoon Maysak

Published on Mar 30, 2015
Typhoon Maysak reached Chuuk State March 29 2015. Destroyed about 90% of homes and stripped many food produced trees to branches and stems.


99W


91S


90P


92S


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Cyclone Maysak Arctic Sea Ice Tropics

Maysak Forms

By: Skyepony, 4:01 AM GMT on March 28, 2015

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Tropics are picking up. 04W has been named Maysak, Nathan lives on & invest 91S is new.

04W MAYSAK


Wunderground PWS at Truk, PTKK, is in the path of Maysak.


18P NATHAN


90P


91S


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March 25 2015 Winddriven Hail Storm in Central Oklahoma

Published on Mar 27, 2015
David Reimer and Paige Burress ended up intercepting a strong high-precipitation supercell just southwest of El Reno in the same area as the May 31, 2013 violent tornado impacted. The storm pummeled them with wind-driven golfball size hail. They remained in the core and RFD as they moved east in an attempt ot get ahead of the storm. The final clips include another hail intercept from a different storm in Norman, OK along with a beautiful sight of the storm at sunset. While not in the video they did observe a brief tornado southwest of El Reno and went through Moore minutes after the tornado crossed interstate 35.
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Cyclone Maysak

Earth Takes Bus

By: Skyepony, 3:00 AM GMT on March 27, 2015

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Bus Passengers Narrowly Escape Earth Taking Their Ride

Some where in Brazil near the cities of Itaituba and Ruropolis, on the Trans-Amazonian Highway a tour bus got stuck, the hind wheels dropped through a road as the river ate through the bridge from below. All the passengers disembarked the tour bus safely before it fell through the road into the river below.




Tropics are picking up. 98W is now 04W, Nathan seems undead & invest 90P is new.

04W


18P NATHAN Here is some recent models.


90P




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Extreme Hail in Columbia

By: Skyepony, 1:08 AM GMT on March 25, 2015

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Massive Hail Storm Hit Bogota, Columbia

An incredibly destructive and extreme hailstorm hit the south side of Bogota, Columbia on Sunday. Up to 24 inches of hail fell creating several emergencies from roads covered in ice, flooding, extreme tree damage as well as buildings. Four people were rescued from a parking garage where the roof had collapsed. There was no injuries.




Tropics have settled down.
98W ~ No recent models have been run on this decaying storm.



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Nathan's Damage

By: Skyepony, 8:20 PM GMT on March 23, 2015

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Skyepony on Flute practicing the tune..Anasazi on a rainy day.

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98W



18S NATHAN Goulburn Island was evacuated. There is no buildings built to withstand severe cyclones there. Over 400 people taken by 51 flights on 12 planes to Darwin. The pets were left behind. At first assesment damage wasn't all that severe. Certainly not as severe as it's last landfall.



Powerful Cyclone Rips Through Australia

Published on Mar 22, 2015
Cyclone Nathan caused damage in Australia's Northern Territories, Sunday, with wind gusts of up to 95 miles per hour. Boats were tossed ashore and many communities lost power.

20P REUBEN




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Arctic Sea Ice had fallen to the lowest amount seen at this time of year. It's tied or with in third of the lowest ever for this day. The pattern finally shifted, storms rolled up the west side of Greenland eroding ice. Looks like a storm got in on the Alaska side bringing heat & wrecking some ice there which really wasn't as expected.. Overall we had a little gain but not enough to bring us back to the -2 deviation area. Weather pattern is expected to shift again in 6 or 7 days. That could send more ice wrecking storms back to the North Pole region that had recently had some recover. The image self updates.





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Sea Ice & Tropics

By: Skyepony, 2:06 PM GMT on March 21, 2015

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03W BAVI



18P NATHAN



20P




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NASA's 7th year of the IceBridge program began March 19th when it completed it's first mission for the year over Greenland. This year's data collection of Arctic Sea and Land Ice will continue through May 22nd. Not only have they switched from using a P-3 to a C-130 airplane, they have a new radar toy, the Multi-Channel Coherent Radar Depth Sounder (MCoRDS). They are hoping to use it to get direct & more accurate sea ice depths.

The IceBridge yearly campaign started when ICESat stopped working in 2009. It is to keep a continuity of ice data going until ICESat-2 is launched in hopefully 2017 & then calibrated.

NASA | IceBridge Kicks Off Campaign with “New” Aircraft

Published on Mar 20, 2015
NASA’s Operation IceBridge is back in the field, but this time, there’s a twist. Instead of using the P-3 or DC-8 aircraft from previous campaigns, they’ve outfitted a C-130 cargo plane for the trip. Science flights begin this week as the mission studies Arctic sea ice, ice caps, glaciers, and the Greenland Ice Sheet with a range of different instruments.

Arctic Sea Ice has fallen to the lowest amount seen at this time of year. The pattern finally shifted, storms rolled up the west side of Greenland eroding ice. Looks like a storm got in on the Alaska side bringing heat & wrecking some ice there which really wasn't as expected.. Overall we had a little gain but not enough to bring us back to the -2 deviation area. Weather pattern is expected to shift again in 9 or 10 days. That could send more ice wrecking storms back to the North Pole region that had recently had some recover. The image self updates.





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Nathan & US River Flooding

By: Skyepony, 7:28 AM GMT on March 19, 2015

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Tropics has settled down a bit, world wide we are down to two cyclones. One in the Northern Hemisphere and one in the Southern Hemisphere and an invest. As the cyclones have dwindled the number of severe land storms are again on the rise.

03W BAVI is in the Western Pacific Ocean and is generally moving toward the Philippines. No recent models have been run in this storm. It lacks convection.



18P NATHAN made landfall on Australia again. Nathan rapidly intensified nearly all the way to shore. It is expected to cross the peninsula and perhaps restrengthen some on the other side.


Current forecast models, Wunderground PWS and current intensity measured by satellite are below.


Wundercam in Mareeba, Australia.



Cyclone Nathan winds cross Port Douglas 19-03-2015

Published on Mar 19, 2015
The moment that the winds and rain from Cyclone Nathan cross the coast at Port Douglas the evening of 19-03-2015

98P




Melt is On ~ River flooding has begun as the snow melts away south of The Great Lakes. The flooding continues on thru the Mississippi River area & even down the east side of TX from the recent heavy rains experienced in that area.
3/18/2015 Carmi, IL Little Wabash River Flooding

Published on Mar 19, 2015
River flooding continues across southern IL as tributaries of the Ohio River combined with the recent rains are causing several rivers in the region to overflow. The Little Wabash River, a tributary to the also flooding Wabash River which separates Illinois and Indiana, has been on the rise steadily since nearly 5-inches of rain fell in the region over the previous weekend.

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Arctic Sea Ice has fallen to the lowest amount seen at this time of year. The pattern seems to have finally shifted with storms now expected to be rolling up the west side of Greenland and then other storms are expected to move more toward Europe, with little storm intrusion on the other side of the Arctic as well, giving the North Pole area more of a chance to recover. The image self updates.






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Cyclone Nathan Cyclone Bavi Ohio Flooding

Bavi, Nathan, 97P / Indonesia Dam Collapse

By: Skyepony, 8:06 AM GMT on March 17, 2015

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Tropics has settled down a bit, world wide we are down to two cyclones. One in the Northern Hemisphere and one in the Southern Hemisphere. As the cyclones have dwindled the number of severe land storms are again on the rise.

03W BAVI is in the Western Pacific Ocean and is generally moving toward the Philippines.



18P NATHAN is off the North East coast of Australia, still producing some rain. Models have it moving back toward Australia again.


97P




Northern India was hit by it's second significant hail storm this month. It destroyed 50% of wheat, mustard, pea and gram crops in some areas. More details are here.
Thousand hectares of crops destroyed by Hail storm in Nashik

Published on Mar 16, 2015
Thousand hectares of crops destroyed by Hail storm in Sinnar taluka of Nashik.


Flood in Indonesia
A dam has collapsed in West Java province and triggered floods that affected over 15,000 people and caused evacuation, official said here on Tuesday. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, spokesman of the national disaster management agency said that the dam at Cimanuk river at Pilangsari village of Indramayu district collapsed on Monday and forced at least 4,000 people to flee home. The evacuees badly need emergency relief assistance including food and medicine, Sutopo told Xinhua via phone. Millions of people in Indonesia, the world's fourth most- populous nation, live in areas near fertile flood plains close to rivers.

Full video amatir !! Banijr Indramayu tanggul sungai jebol

Published on Mar 16, 2015

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Arctic Sea Ice has fallen to the lowest amount seen at this time of year. The pattern seems to have finally shifted with storms now expected to be rolling up the west side of Greenland and then other storms are expected to move more toward Europe, with little storm intrusion on the other side of the Arctic as well, giving the North Pole area more of a chance to recover. The image self updates.




WunderCams The melt is on!
Chestnut Hill, MA The patio furniture.. Shrewsbury, MA...Will they make it to work? Hull, MA Coastal ice nearly gone






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Cyclone Bavi Cyclone Nathan Arctic Sea Ice India Hailstorm Indonesia dam collapse

Cyclone Mayhem

By: Skyepony, 2:38 PM GMT on March 13, 2015

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Tropics had brought a rash of invests and activities that has now become four cyclones. One in the Northern Hemisphere, three in the Southern Hemisphere.

03W BAVI is in the Western Pacific Ocean and is generally moving toward the Philippines. At this time it's expected to be 60kts or more a t landfall.


17P PAM Here is Live cams and Ustreams for PAM..


Below is current intensity using dvorak method & forecast 24hr rainfall (about 8" for at least one island.)


Cyclone Pam conditions Port Vila, Vanuatu | 13 03 2015

Published on Mar 12, 2015
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UPDATE: 12:30


18P NATHAN is off the North East coast of Australia is dropping alot of rain...some areas expecting another 4 inches of rain in the next 24hrs.

Flooded Isabella Falls at the creek crossing Hope Vale.

Published on Mar 12, 2015
Tropical Cyclone Nathan update:
Hope Vale remains isolated after flooding has cut access to the town via Laura and Cooktown.

19S OLWYN is on the west shore of Australia. The winds from the airport weatherstation in Learmonth, WE peaked at 85mph with gusts to 112mph.


Cyclone Olwyn unleashes fury on Exmouth

Published on Mar 12, 2015
Cyclone Olwyn unleashes fury on Exmouth

Nice in-depth wrap up of the various storms on YouTube.


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Arctic Sea Ice has fallen to the lowest amount seen at this time of year. It's leveled off but another storm is on it's way to wreck more ice.. The image self updates. Deep and large cracks can be seen where the ice is thicker on the left side, the area in the circle around the North pole is much thinner.




WunderCams The melt is on!
Chestnut Hill, MA The patio furniture.. Shrewsbury, MA...Will they make it to work? Hull, MA Coastal ice included






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Cyclone Pam Cyclone Bavi Cyclone Nathan Cyclone Olwyn Arctic Sea Ice

Launch Tonight 10:44pm et ~ Cyclone Pam, Nathan, Olwyn and Bavi

By: Skyepony, 7:22 PM GMT on March 10, 2015

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Launch tonight..


Tropics had brought a rash of invests and activities that has now become four cyclones. One in the Northern Hemisphere, three in the Southern Hemisphere.

West Pacific
03W BAVI is in the Western Pacific Ocean.



17P PAM Here is a PWS in Port Villa in the path..




18P NATHAN is off the North East coast of Australia is dropping alot of rain...


Cane train crosses flooded river in FNQ

Published on Mar 12, 2015
A cane train crosses the Mulgrave River in full flood after heavy rain from Cyclone Nathan. Courtesy: FB Danny Nolan

19S OLWYN is off the Northeast shore of Australia.


Learmont Weatherstation in the path of Olwyn. Click graph to go to page..

Tropical Cyclone Olwyn conditions at Exmouth, WA, AU | 12 03 2015

Published on Mar 12, 2015
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Arctic Sea Ice may have peaked and be on the decline unusually early this year. The image self updates. Deep and large cracks can be seen where the ice is thicker on the left side, the area in the circle around the North pole is much thinner. It has refroze some the last few days..but here comes another ice wrecking cyclone..




WunderCams The melt is on!
Chestnut Hill, MA The patio furniture.. Shrewsbury, MA...Will they make it to work? Hull, MA Coastal ice included






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Cyclone Pam Cyclone NATHAN Cyclone Haliba Cyclone Olwyn Cyclone Bavi

Tropics Become More Active

By: Skyepony, 4:10 PM GMT on March 07, 2015

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Tropics is sporting two sets of storms. The first set is in the Western Pacific with one invest north of the equator and the other south.. These two storms may help produce a strong Kelvin-wave that further enhances the El Niño conditions. Not shown here is 95P which is off the North East coast of Australia.

West Pacific
97W



17P PAM is half expected to become a very strong typhoon. It's being born just south of very warm water & is expected to move south.



95P is off the North East coast of Australia



The second set of storms has Madagascar between them.
15S Here is NOAA's Dvorak numbers for 15S. The greatest concern with this storm is flooding.



16S HALIBA is affecting the islands to the east of Madagascar, Reunion and Mauritius..




Here is a Wundercam from the east shore of Reunion..






Arctic Sea Ice may have peaked and be on the decline unusually early this year. The image self updates. Deep and large cracks can be seen where the ice is thicker on the left side, the area in the circle around the North pole is much thinner.




The area in the circle & the immediate area surrounding was beginning to refreeze but yet another storm has come off the North East United States and is moving up the East side of Greenland. This has quickly eroded the fresh ice there on it's approach. GEOS-5 shows this system bringing more heat and ice breaking wind into the Arctic. It's forecast by GEOS-5 to be followed by four more of these ice wrecking lows in the next two weeks. The pattern doesn't look to be changing enough to give the Arctic a chance at it's proper peak this year.




WunderCams
Chestnut Hill, MA The patio furniture is now a few feet under. Total loss til a good melt. The camera has been raised and the snow continues it's way up the window. Large dumps of snow have fallen off the roof several times now.


Shrewsbury, MA...Will they make it to work today? Snow is melting and refreezing.


Hull, MA Wundercam...This one is along the coast. The sea on the left froze again..






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Pam Haliba

Arctic Melt, Snow & 15S

By: Skyepony, 6:12 AM GMT on March 05, 2015

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Arctic sea ice is melting fast.. This view self updates. I'm taken with how dark or little ice there is in the center of the circle at the north pole. Figured I watch it for a few days at different sun angles to see if it is as thin as it looks. At first glance it looks worse than the sea ice extent animations & such that can lag by a few days.





At the first of the year I forecast this to be a very bad year if not the worst in recent record for Arctic Sea Ice, mainly because of where we are in the ENSO cycle, coupled with climate change, further darkening of the ice & the weather patterns.. The chance of this coming to pass seems more likely as we approach what is typically the peak of Arctic sea ice for the year. Usually this isn't peak, in most years these last few weeks in March can add a bit of sea ice. If our weather pattern holds then we may have already seen the peak. Right now we are at fourth lowest extent. If we've already seen peak we will probably begin smashing low sea ice extent records in the next few weeks..




WunderCams
Chestnut Hill, MA The patio furniture is now a few feet under. Total loss til a good melt. The camera has been raised and the snow continues it's way up the window. Large dumps of snow have fallen off the roof several times now.


Shrewsbury, MA...Will they make it to work today? Snow is melting and refreezing.


Hull, MA Wundercam...This one is along the coast. The sea on the left froze again..



Tropics
93P


15S is along the coast of Mozambique. It was the moisture that flooded parts of it a few days ago. It gathered offshore, strengthening in the channel and has moved into an area already ravaged by flood this season. It is expected to move toward and over Madagascar. Here is NOAA's Dvorak numbers for 15S



94S Is on the NE side of Madagascar..









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Arctic Sea Ice Snow 15S 94S Tropics

March Gardens

By: Skyepony, 5:03 PM GMT on March 03, 2015

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March Garden..
When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.

March brings spring & more summer seeds to the ground in North FL. Central FL~ the rush is on to get the last of the spring seeds in like cucumbers, corn, watermelon, squash.. really your last month to plant a decent summer garden. South FL~ It's about time to pack away all your winter seeds. Plenty of summer seeds can still be planted for fresh eating in the months ahead. * means last month to plant.

North FL Plant all beans, cantaloupe, corn, cucumbers, eggplant, peppers, squash, tomatoes, watermelon- beets*, Carrots*, celery*, Kohlrabi*, leek*, lettuce*, Mustard, bunching onions*, parsley, snow peas*, potatoes*, radish* & turnips.

Central FL
..Plant~ All beans, cantaloupes, corn*, cucumber*, eggplant*, okra, southern peas, peppers*, sweet potatoes, pumpkin*, all squash*, tomatoes*, watermelon*, beets*, carrots*, collards*, lettuce*, mustard*, snow peas*, radish*.

South FL
Plant ALL beans, cantaloupes, corn, cucumbers, southern Peas, peppers*, sweet potatoes, summer squash*, tomatoes, watermelon, mustard*, bunching onions*, radish*.


1st-5th Kill plant pests & do farm chores.
6th-10th Plant everything... grains, hay, and forage crops, flowers, veggies, root crops. Great for transplanting too.
11th-13th Barren days, do no planting.
14th-15th Plant root crops.
16th-17th Weed, kill pests & prepare beds..
18th-19th Transplant & plant vine as well as root veggies, set strawberries.
20th-21st Tend beds, fertilize, tie up tomatoes, farm chores..
22nd-23rd Plant above ground crops..
24th-25th Do farm chores.
26th-28th Plant aboveground crops.
29th-31st Kill pests, tend garden.

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March Garden

Launch Tonight

By: Skyepony, 2:47 AM GMT on March 01, 2015

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Launch tonight from Cape Canaveral, FL is planned for 10:50pm EST aboard a Falcon-9. Live coverage is here. Interesting satellite. It's description follows below from Eutelsat.

Located at 114.9° West, EUTELSAT 115 West B will extend our satellite coverage from Alaska and Canada down to South America, with unique coverage over the Galapagos and Easter Island, transforming Eutelsat into a truly Pan-American company.

EUTELSAT 115 West B will provide the Americas with new satellite capacity to reach markets serving high-growth data, video, mobility and government applications.

Ku-band resources, connected to three fixed beams covering the Americas from Alaska to Patagonia, will provide optimised regional coverage of Canada, Mexico and South America for data services including broadband access, government connectivity and corporate networks. Video services include occasional Use, DTH and DTT.

A semi-hemispheric C-band beam will provide groundbreaking coverage from Alaska to Peru. This is optimised for services including video distribution, mobility, cellular backhaul and trunking and government services.

The EUTELSAT 115 West B satellite will be of particular interest to ISPs, aeronautical, maritime, oil & gas, telecom operators and government agencies, as well as news, sports & entertainment broadcasters.

Manufactured by Boeing Defense and Space, EUTELSAT 115 West B is the first all-electric satellite of our fleet. Its revolutionary design significantly reduces launch mass while keeping payload performance, thereby providing more efficient solutions for customers.




Nice to see Southern California get some rain..Wednesday is looking slightly worse than yesterday with that line of severe weather & more snow for the Wundercams..


Snow...
Fox teaches starving child to hunt for food in deep snow (Comedy)

Published on Mar 1, 2015
Fox animal footage and audio from the Discovery Channel at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqOo...


WunderCams
Pisgah, NC


Chestnut Hill, MA The patio furniture is now a few feet under. Total loss til a good melt. The camera has been raised and the snow continues it's way up the window. Large dumps of snow have fallen off the roof several times now.


Shrewsbury, MA...Will they make it to work today? Snow is piling up.


Hull, MA Wundercam...This one is along the coast.



Tropics
14S GLENDA



More have been left homeless in Mozambique from the weather as well as schools destroyed. Cholera is a concern there.



The death toll from a series of Avalanches in Afghanistan is up to 250 and the worst buried villages are now only beginning to be accessed. Many more are trapped
or awaiting rescue.

Afghan Avalanche Death Toll Rises as Rescue Teams Clear Roads to

Published on Feb 28, 2015
The death toll from a massive avalanche in an Afghan valley rose yet again Saturday as rescue crews cleared roads to try to gain access to rural villages buried under deep snow for days. Mohammad Aslam Syas, deputy chief of the Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority, said 186 people have been confirmed dead alone in the hard-hit Panjshir Province. Machinery has been moved into the Panjshir Valley to help clear roads buried beneath at least 3 feet of snow. Syas said army helicopters on Saturday continued to distribute food and other essentials to villages cut off for days.



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Avalanches in Afghanistan MA Snow Typhoon Glenda Eutelsat


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.