Skyepony's WunderBlog

Florida Wildfires Updated

By: Skyepony, 3:21 PM GMT on May 27, 2015

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The latest on The Mud Lake Complex Fire in Big Cypress can be found here. The recent rains have helped some. The fire is holding it's own at 37,000 acres but is not currently growing much. It is at the whim of the weather til enough rain falls to raise the water table in that area. In the coming days West FL has the better chance for rain. GOES-5 is showing good dousing rains maybe coming to south Florida in 7-10days.

This fire has sent smoke over the Miami/Dade, Naples and South Florida area at times. Smoke is usually worse in the mornings. The elderly, people with conditions and young children should avoid smoke exposure. Two smaller fires were extinguished in South Florida this morning.

There is some travel restrictions in the area of the Mud Lake Complex Fire~ Along with a temporary flight restriction in the area, access to lands managed by Big Cypress National Preserve south of Interstate 75, from mile marker 59 to mile marker 75 (Turner River Road), and south to Upper Wagon Wheel Road was temporarily restricted as well. The closure also extended to lands administered by Big Cypress National Preserve north of Interstate 75, from mile marker 59 to mile marker 70, north to the Big Cypress Preserve Boundary.


Figure 1. is what wildfires are currently burning in Florida. It doesn't include authorized burns. The map is from the Florida Fire Service.

The greatest number of wildfires in an area is now occurring in Northeast Florida.


Know where your burn bans are..








Here are a few tips to ensure you aren't the one that burnt down the hood.
• Build campfires in an open area away from trees and overhanging branches.
• Utilize designated fire rings whenever possible.
• Never leave a fire unattended.
• Keep water handy.
• Completely extinguish the fire with water before leaving it.
• Use propane grills instead of an open fire when hot, dry and windy.
• Place grills over bare dirt or pavement – away from dead grass and weeds.
• Never transport or dump live coals from a grill.
• Follow the current open burning laws and restriction.

To get an authorized outdoor burning permit or to report a wildfire or suspicious smoke, call (850) 547-7083.

The Mud Lake Complex Fire in the Big Cypress National Preserve

Published on May 26, 2015
The Mud Lake Complex Fire burns over 35,000 acres in the Big Cypress National Preserve.

Smoke and pollution tracking with the latest image of the GOES EAST Aerosol/Smoke Product (GASP)..

The GASP product is a retrieval of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) made from the current GOES East visible imagery. Satellite measured aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been shown to be a good proxy for pollution monitoring especially when long-range transport is involved. This product is available at a 30-minute interval and 4 km X 4 km spatial resolution during the sunlit portion of the day. The EPA and NWS use the product for monitoring and forecasting applications.


Many places are either too dry or too wet..


Scientists at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center generate groundwater and soil moisture drought indicators each week. They are based on terrestrial water storage observations derived from GRACE satellite data and integrated with other observations, using a sophisticated numerical model of land surface water and energy processes.


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TROPICS~ There is one storm located in the Eastern Pacific.

01E ANDRES








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Florida Wildfires Tropics

Florida Wildfires

By: Skyepony, 8:43 PM GMT on May 22, 2015

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For the Memorial Weekend Florida Forest Service is urging people to practice fire safety as the number of wildfires have increased over the last few weeks across the state. In Florida so far this year there has been 1,041 wildfires. The largest is now over 30,000 acres and is burning in The Big Cypress Preserve in South Florida. It is what is known as the Mud Lake Complex Fire. It was originally started by 8 lightning strikes, setting off multiple fires that merged into a larger fire. As of yesterday it was only 17% contained and growing. This fire has sent smoke over the Miami/Dade and Naples area. Smoke is usually worse in the mornings. The elderly, people with conditions and young children should avoid smoke exposure. Two smaller fires were extinguished in South Florida this morning.

There is some travel restrictions in the area of the Mud Lake Complex Fire~ Along with a temporary flight restriction in the area, access to lands managed by Big Cypress National Preserve south of Interstate 75, from mile marker 59 to mile marker 75 (Turner River Road), and south to Upper Wagon Wheel Road was temporarily restricted as well. The closure also extended to lands administered by Big Cypress National Preserve north of Interstate 75, from mile marker 59 to mile marker 70, north to the Big Cypress Preserve Boundary.


Figure 1. is what wildfires are currently burning in Florida. It doesn't include authorized burns. The map is from the Florida Fire Service.

The greatest number of wildfires in an area is now occurring in Northeast Florida.


Know where your burn bans are..








Here are a few tips to ensure you have a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend:

• Build campfires in an open area away from trees and overhanging branches.
• Utilize designated fire rings whenever possible.
• Never leave a fire unattended.
• Keep water handy.
• Completely extinguish the fire with water before leaving it.
• Use propane grills instead of an open fire when hot, dry and windy.
• Place grills over bare dirt or pavement – away from dead grass and weeds.
• Never transport or dump live coals from a grill.
• Follow the current open burning laws and restriction.

To get an authorized outdoor burning permit or to report a wildfire or suspicious smoke, call (850) 547-7083.

Challenges of the Mud Lake Complex Wildfires at Big Cypress National Preserve

Published on May 22, 2015

Byron Hart, the Assistant Fire Management Officer (Fuels) at Big Cypress National Preserve (BICY) discusses the challenges of the Mud Lake Complex wildfires.

Smoke and pollution tracking with the latest image of the GOES EAST Aerosol/Smoke Product (GASP)..

The GASP product is a retrieval of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) made from the current GOES East visible imagery. Satellite measured aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been shown to be a good proxy for pollution monitoring especially when long-range transport is involved. This product is available at a 30-minute interval and 4 km X 4 km spatial resolution during the sunlit portion of the day. The EPA and NWS use the product for monitoring and forecasting applications.


Many places are either too dry or too wet..


Scientists at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center generate groundwater and soil moisture drought indicators each week. They are based on terrestrial water storage observations derived from GRACE satellite data and integrated with other observations, using a sophisticated numerical model of land surface water and energy processes.


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TROPICS~ There is one invest located in the Eastern Pacific.

91E




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Mud Lake Complex Fire Florida Wildfires Big Cypress Wildfire 90E

2015 Hurricane Season Forecast

By: Skyepony, 4:10 PM GMT on May 18, 2015

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With the first major fire ant party eviction from my house & Ana pulling together offshore before hitting South Carolina as one of the stronger storms in recorded history to do so this early, it's past time to take a hard look at the coming Atlantic Hurricane Season.

I'll begin the search for similiar years with the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), from NOAA's earth System Research Laboratory. This should make any long time Floridian take notice, the ENSO trends up to this point in the year best match 1997 & 2004, the years of David, Charley, Frances & Jeanne.


Figure 1. Comparison of recent conditions with historic weak El Niño conditions, excluding the second year of two year El Niño events.

I'm throwing out 1963 since it by this point in the year has already started a dive toward La Niña. I do expect the current El Niño to grow stronger before the season is out. Models are ridiculous, ECMWF & NASA both take it to a 4 eventually. ESPI, which gives a gauge for a few months out at best is much more conservative with 1.36 & rising.

Other years can be considered using MEI. Starting with the 6 years that are ranked the closest to where we are right now on the index, I'm excluding those on a decline, which leaves 1987, 1992 & 1993.

Another year I'm giving a weight to is 1971. This is only because recently I've notice more records from 1971 being broke locally & along the eastern half of the United States than any other year. It also matches to the crazy season that is under way in the Western Pacific.

Now for a historical look at similiar years & storm numbers per basin... Atlantic (ALT), West Pacific (West Pac) & East Pacific (EPAC). The numbers are total storms-hurricanes-hurricanes greater than or equal to 130mph. I quickly used the Wunderground's recently improved hurricane archive for these.

Year....ATL....West Pac...EPAC
1997 9-5-2 40-13-4 13-5-0 Same storm names, Ana formed 6/19.
2004 15-9-6 34-18-1 17-5-0 First storm formed 7/31
1971 13-6-1 60-23-3 13-15-1 ATL & EPAC seasons didn't start til July. WPAC bore Cyclone Tip.
1987 7-2-1 28-14-6 21-9-1 Season started August 8th for the ATL.
1992 7-4-1 34-14-0 34-16-0 Same names as '04. One storm 4-21 then none til July in the ATL.
1993 8-4-1 37-12-0 20-11-2 ATL season started mid June.


A look at the coming season wouldn't be complete without a glance at the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, hot loop eddies & TCHP..


Figure 2. NOAA's Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the tropical Atlantic area.

Here is a link to the Gulf Stream Current loop eddies for the last 30 days. They are being spit out left and right into the Gulf of Mexico this year. By the end of this there is three eddies in the Gulf of Mexico..

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

Figure 3. This shows the 26ºC heat potential to depth. The deeper the warm waters reach the more potential for significant hurricane activity and Rapid storm intensification exists. Credit NOAA.

The tropical cyclone formation potential by parts of the Atlantic Basin reflect the above with more instability potential in the Gulf of Mexico and along the East Coast than in the Caribbean or Main Development regions. Overall shear maybe the biggest inhibitor across the Atlantic this year by these charts, this would also be expected in the current phase of ENSO.

Other things to consider is the switch was thrown where stronger storms are more likely to form globally since fall of last year and we are in around the peak of a weaker solar cycle. Here is GEOS-5 seasonal rain anomaly forecast. Chance of early storms along the Southeast, then things may quiet down til later in the season. Which really jives with the similiar years selected here.


Putting it all together.. Overall this a tough year to product hurricane numbers. For one this ENSO event hasn't been all that normal, it's out of timing with the seasons to some extent and over the last year the atmosphere hasn't responded like usual to it. None the less I'll give it a shot..

Atlantic 11-7-2
East Pacific 14-7-1
West Pacific 44-18-6

SST distribution is pretty straight forward, though may shift some by the end of the season. I really only expect 2-3 storms to come out of the Main Development Region to re-curve way out in the ocean. Most storms this year should form around Florida, in the Gulf of Mexico & the far Northwest Caribbean. The East Coast is at a greater probability of being struck than most years (look out coastal Carolina), Florida is overdue and those along the Gulf of Mexico should be prepared this year with the hot eddie parade out there. With 1997 & 2004 at the top of the list for best matching MEI trend years, if you like to vacation away from, instead of riding out storms along the east coast of FL, you may want to start saving for a Labor Day vacation now..


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07W
DOLPHIN





ADT Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimate of Dolphin.


99P
This Post-Southern Hemisphere Season Zombie invest is still active.


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2015 Atlantic Hurrican Forecast 2015 East Pacific Hurricane Forecast 2015 West Pacific Cyclone Forecast Tropics

Tropics

By: Skyepony, 11:44 AM GMT on May 15, 2015

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Typhoon Dolphin from Rota

Published on May 15, 2015
Wind and waves scenes from Rota during Typhoon Dolphin shot by Jim Edds of ExtremeStorms.com Contact: jim(at)extremestorms.com

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Published on May 15, 2015
Yigo, NCS, Yona
130 + mph winds & heavy rain conditions in Guam's cities
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Live stream from Guam on Youtube.

Live radio from Guam.
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07W
DOLPHIN





ADT Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimate of Dolphin.


95W




99P



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Typhoon Dolphin 95W 99P

Tropics

By: Skyepony, 3:16 PM GMT on May 13, 2015

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Typhoon Dolphin effect leldoa Chinatown, Pohnpei. 05112015

Published on May 11, 2015
Captured by Bruce Robert
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07W
DOLPHIN




Guam is basking in the warmest waters in Dolphins path..


ADT Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimate of Dolphin.


95W




92A




99P



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Typhoon Dolphin 95W

Tropics

By: Skyepony, 3:38 AM GMT on May 12, 2015

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Published on May 10, 2015
A powerful typhoon known as Typhoon Noul has hit Philippines' northern province of Cagayan, cutting electricity supplies to many parts of the region. Warnings .
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06W NOUL




ADT Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimate of Noul.


07W
DOLPHIN






92A




99P



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Typhoon Noul Typhoon Dolphin Tropics

Tropics

By: Skyepony, 11:56 AM GMT on May 08, 2015

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01L ANA has been declared
. Models are beginning to agree with me. Landfall on SC, drawn in by the severe weather that has been devastating the midwest, sort of combine with that & rain on the Northeast..











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06W NOUL This is one for the north end of the Philippines prepare for.




ADT Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimate of Noul.


07W
DOLPHIN



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Tropics

90L & Typhoon Noul

By: Skyepony, 12:31 PM GMT on May 06, 2015

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90L has been declared





Here's the buoy way off Cape Canaveral, FL.. 41010





Looking at Nasa's GEOS-5 model.. Most the rain should stay off shore from FL.. Though stray heavy showers like the one that pushed on shore last night in Cocoa Beach, near the Minuteman Causeway that dumped ~4.5" of rain are possible. Thursday, Friday & part of Saterday this storm may sit off the coast & then come into South Carolina Saturday Night.



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06W NOUL This is one for the north end of the Philippines to watch & perhaps prepare for. It is forecast to strengthen considerably but has struggled a bit.




ADT Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimate of Noul.

93W



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This week the Pacific Coast of Latin America to Southern California was lashed by large waves from that odd nutercane looking storm that was in the East South Pacific. Three people have died and one is missing. Hundreds have had to leave their homes. These two are lucky not to have been killed..


Video 1. Published on May 3, 2015
Olas Acapulco - Pie de La cuesta - hotel Vayma
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90L Typhoon Noul Noul 93W Tropics

Giant Waves & Weather Ahead

By: Skyepony, 4:04 PM GMT on May 05, 2015

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This week the Pacific Coast of Latin America to Southern California was lashed by large waves. Three people have died and one is missing. Hundreds have had to leave their homes. These two are lucky not to have been killed..


Video 1. Published on May 3, 2015
Olas Acapulco - Pie de La cuesta - hotel Vayma

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A Low is Trying to Form Off the Southeast This Week..






NASA's GEOS-5 model has had this storm forming for more than a week. It has consistently brought it into or along the coastal areas of FL to NC. The timing has been pushed back half a day with the system becoming somewhat organized late Thursday to early Friday.


Saturday it may linger offshore..


The low that comes from the west may bring severe weather across TX, OK & NE as it pulls the storm off the Southeast United States into mostly South Carolina Sunday and Monday.

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TROPICS
06W NOUL This is one for the north end of the Philippines to watch & perhaps prepare for. It is forecast to strengthen considerably.




ADT Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimate of Noul.

93W




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Southeast Low Typhoon Noul

May Garden

By: Skyepony, 4:05 AM GMT on May 01, 2015

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May send the flowers
There for we need the showers
To bathe in bouquet


Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.


May... the planting madness should be about done..sure in FL there is atleast a few things to be planted this month. A good time to assess how much room will be available when the squash, cucs, garlic and the last of the winter fair is gone, to plant some replacements. Southern Peas are black eye, pink eye & cow pea varieties. They fix Nitrogen in the soil, a great summer cover crop that follows heavy feeders like squash wonderfully. They love heat & can dry on the dead bush to be picked after you return from summer vacation. This is true for most the gift/household utility sort of crops like broomcorn & dishrag gourds, they love heat. Most years if it isn't raining constantly these crops can be left to dry on the plant.


North FL Lima beans, eggplant, okra, southern peas, sweet potatoes, Gourds & broomgrass.

Central FL ..Plant~ okra, southern peas, sweet potatoes, Gourds & broomgrass.

South FL sweet potatoes, southern peas, Gourds & Broomgrass.





May 1st & 2nd~ Bake, cut wood, get married, mow to increase growth, dig holes, plant everything.
May 3rd & 4th~ Harvest, can fruits and vegetables, slaughter, prune trees, end things, plant everything.
May 5th and 6th~ Advertize to sell, slaughter, mow to retard growth, potty train, start diets, change habits, do no planting.
May 7th& 8th~ Mow to slow growth, castrate, wean, potty train. Plant root veggies.
May 9th & 10th ~ Cut to slow growth, prune castrate wean, potty train, can fruits & veggies, paint, wax, dig holes, clean, advertize. Kill plant pests.
May 11th & 12th~ Get married, castrate things, can, wean, potty train & brew.. Transplant, set strawberries, plant root veggies.
May 13th & 14th~ Can, castrate, harvest, wean, potty train, brew & mow to slow growth. 13th plant all & such, 14th kill garden pests.
May15th &16th~ Harvest, quit, mow to slow, pick, quit smoking, start diet, kill pests. Don't plant.
May 16th & 17th~ Harvest, can fruits and vegetables, dig, jar, paint, get married. Plant seeds.



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TROPICS

Quang died on impact with Australia...



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May Garden Cyclone Quang


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.