Models keep suggesting a severe weather event or two along the east coast over the remaining week and possibly through the weekend. Models hopefully will improve soon. The recon trip lastnight was cut short due to an inverter failure so less data has been ingested than hoped.
The remains of Ida with another wave is now 90L it could affect the path of Joaquin as well as a front now enhanced by 99L, the swirl remains of it are parked off NorthEast Florida further complicating steering. This storm could left hook north of that into the eastern US. Hard to say with certainty given the error so far. Joaquin Dvorak can be found here.
Looking ENE at Joaquin from shewp's wundercam in George Town, Bahamas.
Tidal flooding is on the rise with approach of the full harvest moon. Many reports are in along the Mid Atlantic to Miami. All the major historical coastal cities are experiencing some street flooding; Miami Beach, West Palm, St Augustine & Charleston, SC. Yorktown, VA is suppose to crest nearly 2 ft higher than the Highest Astrological Tide (HAT). Peak coastal flooding should occur Sunday thru Monday. In Florida the St Johns River near Aster is above Flood Stage due in part to the tides.
Many places along the coast are going higher then their Highest Astrological Tide.. The flooding is up to some homes in Charleston, SC.
Coastal Tidal Flooding Full Moon Sept 2015 credit: Wesley Tyler
Rip Current Warnings are still flying.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THE MONTH WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY. A BUILDING NORTHEAST SWELL THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD KEEP TIDAL DEPARTURES UP TO 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THESE LEVELS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AND WAVE RUN UP TO THE BASE OF THE DUNES ALONG MANY BEACHES. WILL ALSO ADDRESS RIP CURRENT HAZARDS WITHIN THE STATEMENT.
THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDES OCCUR AT: DAYTONA BEACH.....831 AM MONDAY...900 PM MONDAY PORT CANAVERAL....817 AM MONDAY...842 PM MONDAY SEBASTIAN INLET...741 AM MONDAY...803 PM MONDAY FT PIERCE INLET...849 AM MONDAY...908 PM MONDAY
97L~NWS MLB is forecasting 97L to move back toward Florida and Georgia the next few days, increasing rain chances. High moisture is already in place with flash flooding occurring today in Sumter, GA. A dozed cars were flooded out and a duplex was evacuated. Yesterday downtown Columbia, SC had several incidence of street flooding.
16E and the Southwest 16E has turned to remnant rain. Around flagstaff, AZ some reports were made of around an inch or less falling quickly, gulches were running.
Nebraska Got Hail~ The smaller but intense cell that popped over Nebraska today was touched off from a tail of a Low well up in Canada. Hail drifts with hail up to 1.75" in size were reported on highway 275. The roof and some siding on a house was also damaged in that area by hail up to 2.75".
As other models jumped on board GEOS-5 killed the weak gulf low, which has been the least likely, really shoved it more toward South America. Still has the tail of ex-96L come back toward North FL and South Georgia, appears somewhat extra-tropical. This may be the more interesting feature coming soon. It has it a little stronger than the barely closed weak low it depicted yesterday. Check out this mornings ASCAT.. Ida is just a big question mark at this point. We are beginning to see some of the strengthening forecast there.
16E and the Southwest 16E has moved inland. The first Flood Warnings are beginning to pop up in Arizona. 16E
Enjoy the sun. GEOS-5 is really glooming on Florida. Like mentioned in the last entry, that about the high might build in strong. There is other models like the gfs are going with a strong high now. NASA's model has the trough returning, along with the tail of ex-96L on Thursday. Ex-96L goes into NorthEast Florida and south Georgia really weak but rain.
Things clear up over next weekend while more weak sheared lows move in. From left to right~ weak gulf low from the south. That is ex-09L, off the southeast United States,& Ida still in the Central Atlantic. Notice the blocking high to the north reaching well into the Eastern United States.
Toward the end of this run the weak storms make landfall in Louisiana and South Carolina. Puerto Rico is feeling some outer effects of Ida...we'll see.
16E and the Southwest 01E has now been declared 16E. It is expected to make landfall on the Baja Peninsula tonight & possibly bring flooding rains to Arizona over the next few days. 91E
Washington and Oregon may see rain my the end of this week..
96L is the blob that has spun up a little as it's come across FL as a broad & now two separate weak lows on opposite ends of the trough stretching from off Naples, over Lake O & Martin county to just east of Jacksonville. Southwest FL appears to have some incoming rain this morning as does Northeast Florida, coastal Georgia & South Carolina. East central FL is expecting more of the rain to toward the south today. PWATs are still around record high so hard to discount scattered heavy rains. 96L
09L and 10L are in the Central Atlantic. Models have been all over the place on these two. They are close enough that the Fujiwhara effect may take hold of these two at some point where they would begin to circle around each other. Other models have had one absorbing the other. 96L, if it furthar develops could complicate steering more by influencing the High pressure into keeping TD 9 and 10 more to the south.
For the last several days we've had a weak low pull together in the Gulf of Mexico. It came ashore east of Tallahasee and has moved on up thru Georgia. Now it's falling apart over Upstate South Carolina and into the mountains as a front comes for it.
We've had an uptick in both lightning and waterspouts as a trough produced that weak low in the Gulf of Mexico while Erika remnants disapated off Florida's east shore in the Atlantic. The trough first affected South Florida more. Here's footage of some storm chasers that went to Miami and rented a Cessna to storm chase. They flew around storms and focused on capturing lightning for an up coming episode on Canada's Weather Network.
Overall the lightning has been amazing. It's been of various different types and colors. It seemed more severe at first, especially the afternoon lightning. The last few nights the night lightning can be very high cloud to cloud and quiet. This is a well done video of the electric skies over Cape Coral, FL.
Lightning also wrecked havoc across South Florida. Trees were struck and split, one fell on a car, one woman was injured when struck at work on the Tarmac at Palm Beach International airport. Two more injuries occurred when lightning struck a house and caught it on fire. There was some flooding and up to 58mph winds also reported.
September brings a flurry of gardening.. North FL is still planting some warm season but is able to plant most cool season stuff. Central FL is planting a nice mix of both but still leaning mostly warm season. South FL is planting mostly warm season with a few cool season. Everyone can plant lettuce..so let us plant!!!
Across the Southeast in general, winter may have an early blast of cold this year, so don't delay getting those fall gardens in..
North FL Bush & pole beans, Broccoli, cauliflower, collards, cucumbers, onions, turnips, summer squash, Kohlrabi, beets, brussel sprouts, cabbage, carrots, lettuce, mustard, parsley, radish.
Central FL pole, lima & bush beans, broccoli, celery, collards, corn, eggplant, onions, peppers, cucumbers, southern peas, summer squash, tomatoes, broccoli, cabbage, lettuce, mustard, parsley, radish, turnips.
South FL bush, pole & lima beans, broccoli, cantaloupes, cabbage, collards, corn, cucumber, eggplant, lettuce, mustard, parsley, okra, southern peas, peppers, pumpkins, summer squash, tomatoes & watermelon.
1~ Harvest, dry & can, end things, demolish, clean, cut to slow growth. 2-3 Plant root vegtables and transplant. Advertise to sell, ask for a loan. 4-5 Wash, clean, harvest, process food. 6-7 Plant everything, Brew beer, get married, write. 8-11th Plant nothing. prepare beds. Make changes, end demolish, quit, kill pests, harvest, jam and can. 16-17 Plant everything, shop, clean, dig holes, cut to increase growth, hunt. 18-20 Clear land, prepare to plant, advertise, shop, dig holes, cut to increase growth, hunt. 21-22 Plant everything, dig holes, wean, potty train, bake, clean. 23-24 Kill plant pests, dig holes wean, potty train, paint, cut firewood, harvest. 25-26 Plant everything~ extra good for vines. Start diet to gain weight, dig holes, potty train, Harvest, cut firewood, cut ti increase growth. Start diet to gain weight. 27-28 No planting, slaughter, end things, dry fruit, can, harvest, stert diet to lose weight. 29-30 Plant everything, advertise to sell, dig holes, can, paint.
In Agriculture News a sheep was found wandering in Australia that had evaded humans and shearing for 5 to 6 years. Sadly it was a domestic sheep that had the gene to shed yearly bred out of it. It was lucky it hadn't died a few untimely deaths to the extra wool from being blinded by it to overheated from it, it was literately nearly carrying it's weight in wool. This sheep shattered records for the most wool sheared off a sheep with an astounding 89lbs.