Skyepony's WunderBlog

Texas Flooding and Chapala

By: Skyepony, 3:22 AM GMT on October 31, 2015

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Onion Creek, near Austin TX, just missed it's all time record flood height today. Barton Creek was in Major flood stage but several feet shy of the record. Wilbarger and Big Sandy Creek are also in Major Flood Stage and have yet to crest.

Several water rescues occurred, from kids in school buses to this guy that got washed down a river in his car to spend four hours in a tree before his rescue.

There has been storm reports of 82 mph winds in KINNEY, people being rescued from stranded cars in BASTROP. A bridge floated away in HAYS where a heavy rain of 16 inches was noted. GUADALUPE had some structural and roof damage from a possible tornado. A field survey will also be done in HAYS, a wood frame home took multi-directional wind damage. The high school in FLORESVILLE has a hole in a wall due to this storm.

There has been two deaths so far, both drown in their cars. There is a third missing. Austin airport is closed as are many roads. It really is best not to travel or venture out in this sort of weather. There has been over 111 car accidents and 40 water rescues so far. Pictured here is an RV trailer that was thrown on the roof of the Holiday Inn Express in Floresville, Texas, by a tornado.
Photo: Billy Calzada, Staff / San Antonio Express-News
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San Marcos Flooding - Aerial Footage

Shot by Geoffrey King in San Marcos, TX - Sewell Park and Aquarena Springs Dr.
October 30, 2015

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Atlantic Ocean


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04A CHAPALA





Pictured right is the 06Z HWRF from 10/31/2015. It shows up tp 32 inches of rain along the coast. This area of impact has moved southwest down the coast as the models have converged on Yemen. Coastal areas east of landfall should experience the worst of the rain, wind and storm surge.







Below is the 00ZHWRF wind swath at the height of 925mb.






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Texas Flooding Chapala

Tropics

By: Skyepony, 3:10 AM GMT on October 27, 2015

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There was damage reports made to NWS from the Upper Level Low and Patricia remains along the north gulf coast. TERREBONNE, LA had an EF0 tornado that caused minor roof damage on homes, pealed back metal roofing on storage sheds and overturned four medium sized boats in BAYOU DULARGE. Many streets and a few highways closed do to flooding in the NEW ORLEANS area.

Power outages are being reported around PANAMA CITY, FL due to the gale winds that should be dying down over night. The worst of the remaining rain should make it's way along the western coast of FL.

Charleston. SC is losing to the astronomically high tide again.

SAN JUAN PR is reporting heavy rains, with cars stranded, waterspouts and mudslides.
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California~ That rain event later this week..Olaf may get caught under the high and whisked back out to sea, the atmospheric river would get severed before it got to provide much moisture.. Some rain makes it to the north 1/2 of the state but looks to evaporate on impact.
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Atlantic Ocean


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04A CHAPALA




92S





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Texas Rain and Tropics

By: Skyepony, 2:22 AM GMT on October 25, 2015

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AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX NWS wins most storm reports so far. They were mostly flash flood, water over road, road closed and heavy rain reports, some near 10 inches overnight.

The reports of high water and lost cars is on the rise this evening in Brownsville as is closed roads and some tropical storm force wind reports.


Below is a video of the train derailment caused by the flood in Texas. We don't see a cow checking out a derailed train in a flood everyday.. Hope her herd was okay. So far no injuries or deaths have been reported from the Texas flooding.

Train derails in Texas as flood washes away cars by:
USA Today
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Ex-Patricia is reaching the warm Gulf waters now. Looks stormy and wet for the north-west Gulf Coast the next few days.. GEOS-5 also shows good rain for CA on Wednesday and Thursday.

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Atlantic Ocean


20E Patricia .................................................. ..............................


93E OLAF ................................................. .................25W



93B ........................................... ...................................92S


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Texas flooding Tropics ex-Patricia

Hurricane Patricia Extreme Close Up

By: Skyepony, 5:24 PM GMT on October 23, 2015

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Never know what shape is in there until you blow it up..Zoomed in, rotated and fixed this up. Found Patricia's Heart.


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Patricia has become a 200mph monster hurricane and is not only threatening with it's winds, much of Patricia's rain rate is over 7 inches in 12 hours. Flooding may impact many areas. The highest rainfall on this updated NAVY graphic is over 16.5 inches. 20E Patricia exhibited explosive Intensification with a gain of an estimated 85kts in 24hrs. It's now by recon measurements a 175kt, 200mph, Category 5 hurricane that is expected to landfall on southwest Mexico in less than 12hrs. So far the lowest recon surface pressure was 885mb. This is looking to be an extremely dangerous storm for Mexico.. Born of that monsoonal trough that had gyrated around Central America for a week, Patricia has become a forceful hurricane drawing on some of the warmest ocean on Earth.

From NHC

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

3. At this time, the Category 5 winds are occurring over a very
small area near the center - about 15 miles across. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Patricia
before landfall to see what changes in intensity and structure have
occurred.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 19.8N 105.1W 130 KT 150 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1200Z 22.9N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 25/0000Z 25.7N 101.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Recon Credit NOAA & TropicalTidbits.com .............................ADT credit:CIMSS (we need a bigger chart).


Watching the ships flee..


Both GEOS-5 and ECMWF agree that a mid level lows survives the quick crossing of Mexico and reforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Like a week ago Geos-5 is slightly more west impacting TX/LA, where ECMWF goes in to more Louisiana.


As this comes across Texas on it's way to the gulf, it is forecast to add much more rain to the current flooding event just getting under way there. Yesterday electric poles were downed and streets flooded in MCCULLOCH, TX. Cars were lost and at least one water rescue occurred in Jones and Fisher. In Sterling, TX the river rose a foot every 12 minutes. Whole trailers, one an RV and the other a double wide floated away in Rankin, TX..as seen in the video below.


Raw: Severe Weather Strikes West Texas by:
Associated Press
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Atlantic Ocean


20E Patricia .................................................. ..............................


93E OLAF


26W ........................................... ...................................25W CHAMPI


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Hurricane Patricia

Patricia and the Tropics

By: Skyepony, 4:02 AM GMT on October 23, 2015

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Patricia has become a Category 5 hurricane and is not only threatening with it's winds, much of Patricia's rain rate is over 7 inches in 12 hours. Flooding may impact many areas. The highest rainfall on this NAVY graphic is over 16.5 inches. 20E Patricia is really dominating in the tropics. Exhibited explosive Intensification with a gain of an estimated 85kts in 24hrs. It's now by satellite estimates a 140kt, Category 5 hurricane. This is looking to be an extremely dangerous storm for Mexico. Recon is on it's way. Born of that monsoonal trough that had gyrated around Central America for a week, Patricia has become a forceful hurricane drawing on some of the warmest ocean on Earth.

In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning
late tonight and continuing into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 16.2N 105.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...ON THE COAST
36H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Both GEOS-5 and ECMWF agree that a mid level lows survives the quick crossing of Mexico. As this comes across Texas on it's way to the gulf, it is forecast to add much more rain to the current flooding event just getting under way there. Electric poles are down and streets flooded in MCCULLOCH, TX. Cars are being lost and at least one water rescue has already occurred in Jones and Fisher. In Sterling, TX the river was rising a foot every 12 minutes. Whole trailers, one an RV and the other a double wide floated away in Rankin, TX..as seen in the video below.


Raw: Severe Weather Strikes West Texas by:
Associated Press
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Atlantic Ocean


20E Patricia .................................................. ..............................


93E OLAF


26W ........................................... ...................................25W CHAMPI


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Hurricane Patricia

Texas Hail, Tropics and What Not

By: Skyepony, 3:04 AM GMT on October 21, 2015

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Looking over the storm reports the weather was out west today..

Or at least a lot of hail. ROOSEVELT, CHAVES, CATRON in New Mexico all had over an inch size hail. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ had several reports of flash flooding, heavy rain and smaller hail. Heavy rain and soaked campers reported in GRAND, UT, hail at Mesa, CO. Smaller hail and a cold air funnel cloud was noted from NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ.

The weather did move beyond the west a little today with EL PASO, TX Having severe storms. A roof blew off a house & a storage unit was blown over. Hail reports were common with the later ones focusing more on hail accumulation. Key West is experiencing Tropical Storm force winds.



Worst Hailstorm I've Seen by:
iAisu
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Atlantic Ocean


97E is now 20E. Models expect this to develop further. It is over very warm water. Expected to impact Mexico, it may eventually circle back around to Central America.

20E .................................................. .............................. 93E OLAF


93W ........................................... ...................................94W


24W KOPPU ........................................... ...................................25W CHAMPI



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Texas Hail Severe weather tropics

AR, NV, CA storms and Tropics

By: Skyepony, 2:37 AM GMT on October 19, 2015

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Phoenix, AZ NWS wins most storm reports (116). Most are out of MARICOPA, where small hail and a lot of large trees and electrical poles were taken down by thunderstorm wind damage.

Runner up is LAS VEGAS, NV NWS. Over 4 1/2 ft of water flowing over Hidden Valley Rd in CLARK, NV. INYO is still flooding. SAN BERNARDINO, CA has a foot of mud and debris across Irwin Rd. Long stretch of 93 & 318 near LINCOLN, NV is closed. Major roads around NYE, NV including US Highway 95 are closed too.


Police rescuing stranded drivers from US 95 flooding by: KTNV Channel 13 Las Vegas
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Atlantic Ocean


Caribbean / EPAC Blob Watch
92L was dropped. The blob over Central America is just 97E. It's so large and largely over land. Today's ECMWF model run takes 97E into Mexico to rain itself out. GEOS-5 had moved on from that solution and is sticking with a new one where this gyrates around Central America and the gulf of Mexico for the next few weeks. A strong pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) maybe on it's way. Central America could receive a lot of rain while it's already somewhat saturated and at risk for landslides.

So far most the rain has been falling off shore but some coastal areas have had as much as 14" of rain in the last seven days.



97E .................................................. .............................. 93E OLAF


93W ........................................... ...................................94W


24W KOPPU ........................................... ...................................25W CHAMPI



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NV Flooding Tropics

LA Mud Flows and Tropics

By: Skyepony, 7:37 PM GMT on October 16, 2015

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Nationwide storm reports are pretty low, Grand Rapids, MI wins with 53 reports, mostly wind.

Runner up had more extreme weather.. It rained in Los Angeles. Flash flooding, hail, mudslides, mud flows with vehicles struck/stranded were all reported. 25 people sheltered in HUGHES-ELIZABETH LAKE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. There was also this heavy rain report..
0425 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 SW LANCASTER 34.62N 118.29W
10/15/2015 M3.38 INCH LOS ANGELES CA MESONET

LEONA VALLEY RAIN GAUGE REPORTED 3.38 INCHES
IN ONE-HOUR AND 1.81 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES.
THIS WAS A 1000-YR RAINFALL EVENT.

Saw another video from today, they are still trying to free some of these vehicles taken by the mud flows.

Hard to believe no one dies here. There is some footage as people make last second good decisions. At the end, a lady opens the door again as if she forgot something but then lets it go, as her car moves nearer to the mud/waterfall.

Flash Floods and Mudslides Sweep Through California by: Wall Street Journal
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Atlantic Ocean


Caribbean / EPAC Blob Watch
GEOS-5 and ECMWF has been in similar agreement on some sort of storm forming in the East Pacific and crossing back to the Gulf of Mexico. GEOS-5 is keeping it to the EPAC now. The potential storm is coming out of this monsoonal trough. It's really quite large and could possibly form a low on either or both sides of Central America. The area of low pressure on the Caribbean side has been declared 92L. Either way a strong pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) maybe on it's way. Central America could receive a lot of rain while it's already somewhat saturated and at risk for landslides.

Several places in Mexico are vulnerable for landslides after 24hrs of rain due to current soil conditions. After 72hrs CHOLUTECA, Honduras is at risk.



92L .................................................. .............................. 19E OLAF


24W KOPPU ........................................... ...................................25W CHAMPI


93W ........................................... ...................................02P


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LA Flooding Tropics

Why High Tides Continue

By: Skyepony, 4:28 AM GMT on October 13, 2015

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In pondering our out of control tides, a reoccurring discussion has been sea level rise for various reasons. The obvious ones are water is being added by fresh water melt from the Arctic, warmer water takes up more volume and some of the land is sinking. Other less obvious factors come into play like how a current near a land mass like our Gulf Stream can pull water away from shore keeping tides low and how a change in salinity and temperature from melt water can slow that current, significantly raising the ocean sea level heights. Another event that is greatly affecting our tides currently is much of the East Coast King or highest tides of the year are occurring last full moon or next. El Niño should also be blamed. For the last many years the far West Pacific has harbored the high sea height anomalies, the release of heat to the atmosphere has redistributed it in the ocean affecting sea heights.

JPL's Picture of the Day
Sea Surface Height Anomaly: SARAL and Jason-2 Measurements from 03-Oct-2015 to 12-Oct-2015

credit:JPL, Nasa.

Comparing last year's gulf stream to this year's using data from 10/12. Looks a little warmer this year. Sea Heights overall in the area are up and the Gulf Stream Current is overall slower and thinner, at-least near to the coast. The current off of Florida for this day looks very anemic compared to normal. The forecast shows some improvement in a week or so, also appears a loop eddy maybe breaking off soon in the Gulf of Mexico.

LAST YEAR~ 10/12/2014
Gulf Stream Region Temperature (Cº)..........Sea Surface Height........................Current (m/s)


THIS YEAR~ 10/12/2015
Gulf Stream Region Temperature (Cº)..........Sea Surface Height.......................Current (m/s)

credit:NOAA, MMAB Global RTOFS Isopycnal Nowcasts/Forecasts.

King Tides are Nigh & High
King Tides are the highest tide produced by the orbits and alignments of the Earth, Moon and Sun. The actual highest tide of the year may very well be on a different day of the year, caused by storms or other influences. Below is a map from the EPA showing the 2015 King Tide dates for most the gauges along the East Coast or Gulf shores. Their thoughts on things to come is...Sea level rise will make today's king tides become the future's everyday tides.





Indian Creek Drive, Miami Beach; is still flooding during high tide by: Matthew Piatkowski
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96E .................................................. .............................. 18E NORA


25W ........................................... ...................................24W


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High Tides Tidal Flooding Tropics

DIY Mini Halloween/Oct Garden

By: Skyepony, 5:27 PM GMT on October 10, 2015

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October Garden

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.

In October the planting frenzy continues for all of the state of Florida, while we harvest the last tastes of summer. It's time to turn compost into your garden, improve soil & throw seed to the ground. Don't forget to rotate your crops, for example..legumes (beans/peas), followed by heavy eaters like corn/tomatoes, then root crops & leafy greens. Surround with herbs & flowers when possible. Below is what each part of Florida should plant from seed this month from seed.

North FL beets, Broccoli, cabbage, Carrots, cauliflower, collards, kale, Kohlrabi, Lettuce, Mustard, onions, radish, spinach, strawberry, turnips.

Central FL beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, collards, kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, english peas, radish, spinach, strawberry, turnips.

South FL all beans, beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, califlower, celery, collards, corn, cucumber, eggplant, Kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, all peas, peppers, potatoes, radish, spinach, summer squash, strawberry, tomato, turnips.

10th~ Plant nothing do chores.
11-15 plant above ground crops. Harvet, bake, buy clothes.
16-17 clear and plow. Cut firewood, dig holes, advertise to sell.
18-19 plant above ground crops. Bake, hunt, potty train.
20-22 Kill things
23-24 Plant vines and above crops. Get married.
25-26 Pull weeds
27-28 Transplant and plant root crops
29-30 Vacation
31 plant everything
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Easy idea for a Halloween Mini Garden. Plant a mini garden, kill and then spruce it up.. A more humane way would be to use dead twigs and weeds to begin with.

Extreme Halloween Miniature Garden

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October Garden

Waccama Flood & Tropics

By: Skyepony, 4:21 AM GMT on October 07, 2015

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Bringing the Waccama River Gauge to life is this video about a wedding photographer documenting the flood near there at and in his parent's house. The forecast has the river cresting in a few days and above major flooding through the end of the forecast period.

The incredible Waccama Flood Boat Tour can be viewed here.


South Carolina Flooding - My Experience by: Jarrett Hucks Photography.

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Atlantic Ocean



11L JOAQUIN



The locals have been shredding Joaquin's waves on beachside. My surfer friends look beat down. They said we are just past the peak in height.

Hurricane Joaquin Surf - Satellite Beach, FL BY: Wes Henry

Joaquin Dvorak can be found here.


07C OHO ............................................. 08C


95E ........................................... ...................................23W CHOI-WAN


92B ........................................... ...................................91A



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Waccama Flood Joaquin Tropics

Carolina Flooding & Joaquin

By: Skyepony, 12:37 PM GMT on October 03, 2015

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As Joaquin moves away from the battered Bahamas, an Upper Level Low over the Eastern United States has tapped the moisture of Joaquin and is being drawn across South Carolina into North east Georgia and into parts of Western North Carolina. Much of this area is saturated, 4-12 inches more are expected today. Most flash flood deaths occur in automobiles. They also discourage kids from playing near flooded creeks and in flood water.

Trees are fell and roads were closed overnight and this morning across Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina.

Brunswick, NC is experiencing flash flooding. Ongoing water rescues are occurring. Whiteville is closed. Between there and Tapor City is impassable.

Water rescues are happening this morning in Downtown Charleston, SC. Downtown is closed. There are reports of water in homes and several Heavy Rainfall totals 5-7+ inches over night in the area.


04 Oct 2015 | Major Flooding in Columbia, SC #Flood #SCFlood #Columbia #Joaquin



11L JOAQUIN





Hurricane Joaquin causes Major Flood in Long Island, Bahamas | Oct 2, 2015

Joaquin Dvorak can be found here.


90L................................................. .................................................. 91L



07C .................................................. ................................................08C


22W Mujigae........................................... ...................................23W CHOI-WAN



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Carolina Flooding Joaquin Mujigae CHOI-WAN

Coastal Flood & Joaquin

By: Skyepony, 4:13 AM GMT on October 02, 2015

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While the Bahamas are getting a pounding by Joaquin the East Coast maybe in for some historic rain this weekend as a powerful low deepens across the Southeast bringing lots of rain, up to 30kt winds and more tidal flooding.. NWS Greenville is warning of rain amounts 5-10 inches with possibly 15inches in isolated areas. Some models I've seen go as high as 20 inches. Flash Flood Watches are flying, people are encouraged to clean out storm drains and stock up on water, medicines, supplies & such so people can stay home during this event. Most flash flood deaths occur in automobiles. They also discourage kids from playing near flooded creeks and in flood water. The flooding here has begun with roads closed in Pickens and a creek in a house in Spartanburg.

Charleston, SC NWS has Flood watches and Coastal Flood Warnings. They are also headlining, Historic Rainfall And Life-Threatening Flash Flooding Possible Through Sunday.. The tides are astronomically high plus the rains have begun there. Some homes had up to a foot of water in them today. Many roads were closed, including the historic downtown Market St.

Flood watches extend into the Baltimore/Washington NWS area..


Joaquin Dvorak can be found here.
Joaquin model error is here. Models are still doing poorly but trending slightly better, now that the storm isn't going as fast in the opposite direction as forecast.


11L JOAQUIN



Looking at Joaquin from shewp's wundercam in George Town, Bahamas. The wundercam is moved inside and on a tripod for now. Here's the PWS there. They have experienced gusts to near 60mph. The storm should move closer to this location today.

Even closer to the storm is this PWS and CROOKED2 in Crooked Island that has had winds to 70mph so far.


Hurricane Joaquin conditions in Crooked Island, Bahamas | Oct 1, 2015


90L.................................................



22W Mujigae


99W



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Mujigae Joaquin Carolina Flooding Hurricane

Joaquin in the Bahamas

By: Skyepony, 1:35 PM GMT on October 01, 2015

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Atlantic Ocean



The Bahamas are experiencing a significant impact from currently Category 3, Hurricane Joaquin, who is meandering at about 5mph. High winds (120mph+), heavy rains (10-20 inches), storm surge (5-8ft), high waves & rip currents are expected to be the concerning impacts in the Bahamas at this time. Joaquin is raging with 120mph wind and has a pressure of 942mb. Central and the North West Bahamas are expected to be heavily impacted by this slow moving storm.

Models seem in agreement that Joaquin should make a turn toward the north today as it gets closer to the trough coming through Florida. GEOS-5 is still left hooking Joaquin into the Northeast near Washington DC and then has it riding the coast on up. It portrays a fairly devastating scenario in terms of wind, heavy rain and storm surge. Model error so far has been large. Even the most recent gfs runs were initialized ~30nm in error. The only model with less than a 300nm error average at 72hrs is NAM2 (Which is or very similiar to GEOS-5..which is the NAM run well in the rears where it's initialized in hindsight, in the correct place). None the less, it's been a hard storm for the models & one to watch.

Joaquin Dvorak can be found here.


11L JOAQUIN



Looking at Joaquin from shewp's wundercam in George Town, Bahamas. The wundercam is moved inside and on a tripod for now. Here's the PWS there. They have experienced gusts to near 60mph. The storm should move closer to this location today.

Even closer to the storm is this PWS and CROOKED2 in Crooked Island that has had winds to 70mph so far.


3D Flyby of Hurricane Joaquin by GPM


90L.................................................



22W



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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.