Skyepony's WunderBlog

El Niño Flooding Continues

By: Skyepony, 4:23 AM GMT on November 30, 2015

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Scattered across the world flooding is suddenly common again. Several have been lost in Kenya in the last few days. Rescues are ongoing. One particularly bad incident, a river broke it's banks and swept away a commuter bus. 5 bodies were recovered, 14 are unaccounted for. Several were hospitalized. This is just one flooding incident of many that has become an El Niño nightmare for that country.

Flooding continues in Buraidah, Saudi Arabia two days after the rains have stopped. Merchant area flooded. People are taking in flood victims. Cars were lost.

A frozen downfall of golf ball size hail hit parts of Australia. The interior roof over the maternity ward in Lismore collapsed. Everyone was okay after some frantic moments shielding newborns.


Then there is the remains of Sandra and the Trough raining out from Texas across the mid-south. Looks like some roads were froze across parts of TX this morning. WICHITA KS area had ice storm conditions with power outages in the wake. Oklahoma was well iced with power outages as well.
Flood Watch For North Texas As Deadly Storms Deliver More Rain

Published on Nov 29, 2015
Deadly storms continue to rage in North Texas today, flooding and even covering parts of the plains in sheets of ice. The band of storms sweeping over the region have led to eight deaths in Texas and six in Kansas since Thursday, and have cut power to more than 78,000 homes in Oklahoma as of Sunday morning.
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King tides are inundating from Malaysia to San Fransisco. With the higher tides also comes extremely low ones. Appears the Bay area is one to experience this event to see what gets uncovered or stuck in the mud.

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Atlantic Ocean


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04P TUNI


96P


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Local weather~ Nice. Watch for rip currents.


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El Nino Flooding Tropics Tuni

Sandra and the Trough

By: Skyepony, 3:42 AM GMT on November 27, 2015

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Elco, NV had heavy snow, with one report for 23". Rain has turned to freezing rain in Kansas and Nebraska. Tides are high along the southeast coast. Minor flooding is occurring in Jacksonville and Charleston. Coastal flood advisory flying here with tides running a foot high above normal. Careful for the rip currents and Black Friday shoppers. We may see some minor erosion at the beach.
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Snow and Ice Impacting Northeast NE - 11/26/2015

Published on Nov 26, 2015
Ice and snow continue to impact a large part of the central US on Thanksgiving with snow and ice impacting areas of eastern Nebraska. Several inches of snow falling on top of a thin layer of ice are keeping people off the roads as conditions are only expected to get worse through the day.
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Atlantic Ocean


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22E SANDRA Last 24hrs MIMIC.


GEOS-5 shows lot of heavy rain over a large area of land as Sandra makes landfall in less then 48hrs. WPC keeps showing more rain over the next five days for the middle of the county as Sandra interacts with the trough.


04P TUNI


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Local weather~ Chilly with gradual warming.


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Hurricane Sandra Snow storm

Season Ahead/Cats In-Fa Snow

By: Skyepony, 12:50 PM GMT on November 24, 2015

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Seasonal Forecast~ This will take more than one blog, starting here with NASA's GEOS-5 seasonal forecast. The models have been run. With the Bruce Lee El Nino in play no surprise at much of the results.

Global Temperature at 2 meters anomaly and Precipitation anomaly for:
..keep in mind with the temperature anomalies that warmer colors are hotter and with precipitation that warmer colors are wetter.

Winter~ December/January/Febuary


Taking a closer look, month by month, February looks to be the most extreme when it comes to temperature anomalies this winter. While January looks the most extreme for precipitation anomalies. That looks to be the stormier month for Florida, the Northeast and really the only month showing for California to make up for some of it's drought. All the months can be viewed here for Temperature and Precipitation.


Spring~ March/April/May


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With the return of snow to the Northern Hemisphere, comes the return of cats in snow videos..

Cat Goes Sledding Down Hill

Published on Nov 20, 2015
When the winter hit, this cat took the opportunity to frolic in the snow and go for his first downhill run on the sled. With a little push from his helpful owner, the cat held on tight and went flying down the pre-shoveled track until coming for a complete stop.
by: DailyPicksandFlicks
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22E SANDRA Last 24hrs MIMIC.


27W IN-FA


95P


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Local weather~ Chilly with gradual warming.


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Winter Outlook

Salmon In-Fa Flood

By: Skyepony, 1:06 PM GMT on November 21, 2015

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The Return of Boris
Boris is a wandering soul that isn't tied down by the responsibilities of home ownership. He also enjoys good weather. So like many snowbirds he rolled into town this week for the winter in front of the cold front.

He spent the summer as usual in Alaska. He camped about 100 feet from the Pacific Ocean in a tent catching and smoking Salmon. Some of which weren't smoked enough and molded but overall he made the most of it. Word in Alaska is the Salmon is already testing positive for Fukushima radiation and this is most likely the last year the levels maybe low enough for safe consumption.

The heavy rains in Washington not only caused an impressive rock-slide closing Entiat River Road indefinitely, it's added new routes for the Salmon swimming back to their breeding grounds.

Salmon running in the Skok valley

Published on Nov 19, 2015
Salmon are bloody determined creatures!
by: Sugih Waras
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21E RICK


27W IN-FA

Still shot of In-Fa's eye from Himawari-8, 11-21-15 at 0030UTC. The image has been zoomed & flipped.



03S ANNABELLE


93P


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Local weather~ Rainy weekend on tap.


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Washington Salmon In-Fa Annabelle Rick Hurricane

In-Fa Eye / WNC Flood

By: Skyepony, 2:37 AM GMT on November 20, 2015

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The heavy weather did squeeze out over Western North Carolina, mainly as heavy rain. Flooding occured in Union, Hendersonville, Rosman and along the Little River in Penrose.


Heavy overnight rain causes flooding in Henderson County
by: WYFF News 4
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Atlantic Ocean


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21E RICK


27W IN-FA

Still shot of In-Fa's small eye from Himawari-8, 11-20-15 at 0037UTC. The image has been zoomed & flipped.



94S................................................. ............................................93P


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Local weather~ Stormy night.


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Hurricane Rick In-Fa WNC Flood

In-Fa Flooding

By: Skyepony, 5:01 AM GMT on November 19, 2015

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Atlantic Ocean


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Uber's competition in India, Ola started a temporary boat service in Chennai while it is under water. For the next three days in flooded locations boat service is available for free. It started on a joke with Ola boat service and quickly got real with usual the drivers pairing with fisherman and boat operators.

Chennai hit by rain and deadly flooding - chennai floods 2015

By: Roll India Published on Nov 18, 2015
Chennai hit by rain and deadly flooding - chennai floods 2015

21E................................................. ..........................................27W IN-FA



94S................................................. ............................................93P


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Local weather~ Cooler with some showers.


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Chennai Flooding In-Fa

Severe Weather In-Fa Tropics

By: Skyepony, 7:10 PM GMT on November 17, 2015

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Severe Weather Likely



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97B, in the North Indian Ocean is the oldest invest and has been drowning parts of Southern India, killing 79 so far. Train service has been affected, schools are closed. Chennai is submerged, water rescues are in progress with more rain on the way from this disturbance. The storm Models are split. I'm leaning with the later track model and think it will move from east to west across India. That has also been the recent pattern.

Major Flooding in Chennai, India | 15 11 2015

By: Meteo Tube. Heavy rain batters Chennai, no relief likely
Updated on November 15, 2015: In the last 3 hours, Chennai has recorded a good 82 mm of rain. Heavy rain is likely to continue for another 2 to 3 hours. Thereafter, there may be a break of 2 to 3 hours.

27W In-Fa may hit some of the Mariana Islands hard..

90E~ Early models aren't all out to sea. Could be some more El Nino moisture coming to the west Coast or Southwest and Mexico.

93P ~ Not really expecting to develop.

94S Looks gamely.

90E................................................. ..........................................27W IN-FA



97B................................................. ............................................93P


94S

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Local weather~ Is Beautiful


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In-Fa Chennai Flooding Severe Weather

WA & TX Rains/Tropics Makes Invests

By: Skyepony, 3:10 AM GMT on November 15, 2015

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Texas Tuesday Severe Weather Threat

May see another crazy heavy rain and severe event for southeast Texas on Tuesday. This is an ugly looking frontal storm that spreads over a large area as it goes east through Louisiana and Mississippi. GEOS-5 shows the front holding together through Alabama more than the the last few have. The main energy migrates up through North Carolina and Virgina as it is pitched out to sea by the large low in Canada. Houston NWS is watching it close.



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Pacific Northwest Rain and Landslides

It's been raining for days in the Pacific Northwest and it's beginning to wear on the landscape. A few landslides have occurred including one over the passenger train track between Tacoma and Olympia. Service has been suspended til at least Monday.

Granite Falls, WA Flooding


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Atlantic Ocean~ Fim-9 and GFS have hinted at a storm out of the Caribbean. GEOS-5 wants to develop one in the East Pacific and cross it back to the Caribbean in the next week. With sea surface temperatures and models it's hard to say with any confidence the season is done.


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Across the rest of the world we have invests popping up. 97B, in the North Indian Ocean is the oldest invest. It has been lingering near and affecting Southern India bringing more rain to an area that has already had 20 inches of rain and over 50 deaths due to rain in the last 10 days.

99E................................................. ..........................................95W



97B................................................. ............................................93P


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Local weather~ Is Beautiful


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Gaza Flood & Kate

By: Skyepony, 8:11 PM GMT on November 11, 2015

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Gaza, Israel has been having a wet and early start to their rainy season which usually doesn't peak until December or January. This is after the last two years of higher than normal precipitation. Infrastructure is giving way to the rain onslaughts. Some government workers haven't been paid. Between war and water even garbage and sewage is an issue. Refugee shanties along with area residents have had their possessions washed over now in these last few days. Many of which can't afford to replace what the floods have took.

Torrential rain floods southern Israel, Gaza

Published on Nov 9, 2015 by : Reuters
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Atlantic Ocean



12L KATE



Here's a Terra pass of Kate as a hurricane.



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96B


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Local weather~


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Gaza Flood Hurricane Kate

Kate, Megh and the Tropics

By: Skyepony, 7:01 PM GMT on November 08, 2015

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12L KATE



What has become Tropical Depression Twelve, yesterday helped form a brief water spout off the south side of Dominican Republic.
Waterspout TOUCHINGDOWN in Santo Domingo (11.7.2015)

Published on Nov 7, 2015 by :J Rudert

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05A MEGH



Somalia had Thousands of makeshift homes rinsed away in flooding last week..


96B


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Local weather~
1012 PM FLOOD 4 NNW JACKSONVILLE BEAC 30.33N 81.41W
11/08/2015 DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOOD WATERS IMPACTED THE DAYS INN PARKING LOT NEAR
ATLANTIC AND AQUATIC DRIVE WITH ABOUT 3 FT OF STANDING
WATER IN THE LOT. CARS WERE SUBMERGED IN THE PARKING LOT.
WATER ENTERED PART OF THE HOTEL. AQUATIC DRIVE IS CLOSED
DUE TO FLOOD WATER UP TO 2 FT DEEP.


0800 AM WATER SPOUT 2 E FORT PIERCE 27.44N 80.29W
11/07/2015 ST. LUCIE FL PUBLIC

SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT AND PICTURE OF A WATERSPOUT WITHIN A
HEAVY RAIN SHOWER EAST OF THE FORT PIERCE FARMERS MARKET
DOWNTOWN.


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94L Hurricane TD12 Kate

Cloud Tsunami Spotting and Megh

By: Skyepony, 12:47 PM GMT on November 06, 2015

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Chance of an Atlantic Storm
Chance of some Atlantic storm watching ahead. Models are all over on these two areas of interest. ECMWF is back to both developing somewhat and moving off to the northeast, the Gulf of Mexico one weak into Florida, the Bahama one out to sea. CMC today, intensifies and recurves the Bahama storm instead of taking it west and weak all the way. GEOS-5 has stayed with the Caribbean storm getting sheared to death in the Gulf of Mexico but now has the Bahama storm staying weak and going south of Florida as it heads west.

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Cloud Tsunami
More impressive weather from Australia, this time Sidney. A cloud tsunami occurred on 11/6/2015 prompting 40 calls for help and assistance to authorities.. CNN reported that some people even ran from the ominous looking cloud as it approach shore.
Storm 'tsunami' cloud rolls across Sydney

Published on Nov 6, 2015 by :FunWorld

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Atlantic Ocean



93L


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05A MEGH



Somalia had Thousands of makeshift homes rinsed away in flooding last week..


96B


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Local weather~

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Cyclone Megh Sidney Cloud Tsunami

Chance for an Atlantic Storm, Arabian Sea Storm & Australia Tornados

By: Skyepony, 12:39 PM GMT on November 05, 2015

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Looking at the Atlantic, NHC has placed a yellow X deep in the Caribbean off the coast of GUATEMALA, giving an Upper Level Circulation less than 40% chance to develop. It has alot of moisture associated with it and is very large, extending all the way from South America to Cuba. Nasa's GEOS-5 develops this combined with the wave at the islands just entering the Caribbean, in the East Pacific as a major storm. ECMWF makes a weak low of it in the Bay of Campeche on day 4 and moves it into the Panhandle of FL Tuesday.

Atlantic may not be done though. Both ECMWF & GEOS-5 have a low pulling together near the Bahamas in a week. GEOS-5 shows it strengthening as a front comes for it, Both models take it Northeast out to sea. This one could depend on if it develops enough before the front get is.

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I think this is from South Australia. They have been experiencing severe storms over the last few days with tornado and wind damage as well as some flooding.

Mini tornado at Monarto

Published on Nov 3, 2015 by :Claire Campbell


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05A MEGH

Late-cycle track Models..


Somalia had Thousands of makeshift homes rinsed away in flooding last week..

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Local weather~

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05A Monarto Tornado

Chapala, WY Gash and Portugal Flood

By: Skyepony, 2:02 PM GMT on November 02, 2015

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A Gash across Wyoming opened last month in the Big Horn Mountains. Located near Yellowstone, It is on private property and has only been evaluated by geologist from photos like this one from Facebook. Popular thought is this looks like erosion from an underground spring and that a slow landslide is occurring. These events are somewhat common for the region. There has been no magnitude 2 or higher earthquakes near there recently. The opening has been named "The Gash" by locals and is estimated to be 750 yards long and about 50 yards wide.
Image Credit SNS Outfitter & Guides.

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Flooding disaster in Albufeira - Portugal

Published on Nov 1, 2015 by :daninfinity


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Atlantic Ocean


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04A CHAPALA




The Extra Late EPS models are forecasting this less into the Sea of Arden now and moving toward agreement with the major models. The later a model is the more correct the first or first few plots are. Also when a cyclone moves toward land at such an angle it can be harder to say exactly where it will landfall, it may also rake along the coast a bit.. Overall further west of forecast wouldn't surprise me. HWRF showing winds up to 114kts possible in the area of landfall. Below left is EPS extra late models. Right is HWRF expected rainfall. Some coastal areas may see 2 feet of rain or more. Click pics to make larger.




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Chapala WY Gash Albufeira Portugal Flood

Houston Flooding and Chapala

By: Skyepony, 5:07 AM GMT on November 01, 2015

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This turned out to be another severe day for Texas. The worst had moved a little east into the Houston, TX and Lake Charles, LA area. BRAZORIA, TX saw 25 trailer homes damaged with 2 injuries. There were several major Highways closed and over 130 high water rescues preformed. Six people have died so far in the flooding. (Photo: Hector N. / KHOU 11 viewer)

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Flooding Hits Houston With a Vengeance

Published on Oct 31, 2015 by :wochit News

Strong storms are buffeting Texas for a second day, causing flooding and possible tornadoes. Travel is now difficult in the Houston area, where heavy rain and flooding have washed out roads and stopped some public transit. Houston's nearly 23-mile light rail system suspended service Saturday due to heavy rain. Houston emergency management officials say high water was also affecting public bus routes and swamping major highways. Authorities say the Houston area has received up to 7 inches of rain since Friday night. The Associated Press reports the National Weather Service has issued a flash flood watch for areas near Houston, Galveston, Bryan, College Station, Tyler and Texarkana until Saturday afternoon.
Nearly 12,000 customers of Dallas-based utility Oncor were without power Saturday, mainly in parts of East Texas.
To the west, Austin-Bergstrom International Airport canceled more than 40 flights Saturday. The area received more than 16 inches of rain Friday, and flights were suspended when the control tower was flooded.


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04A CHAPALA





Pictured right is the 18Z HWRF from 10/31/2015. It shows up to 32 inches of rain along the coast. Coastal areas east of landfall should experience the worst of the rain, wind and storm surge. There is some models spread still with a few moving this farther into the Sea of Aden, some raking the north coast.







Below is the 18ZHWRF wind swath at the height of 925mb.






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Local weather~

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Houston Flooding Chapala

November Garden 2015

By: Skyepony, 4:31 AM GMT on November 01, 2015

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Vineyard Eve.jpg Uploaded by: gemini Thursday October 29, 2015 Lawton, MI

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November Garden

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.

In November the planting frenzy continues for all the state of Florida, heaviest for South FL planting some summer & most winter varieties still. Harvest should be picking up too with a mix of some early winter & late summer. It's a good month for local diverse veggie eating. It's time to turn compost into your garden, improve soil & throw seed to the ground. Don't forget to rotate your crops, for example..legumes (beans/peas), followed by heavy eaters like corn/tomatoes, then root crops & leafy greens. Surround with herbs & flowers when possible. Below is what each part of Florida should plant from seed this month.

North FL beets, Broccoli, cabbage, Carrots, kale, Kohlrabi, Mustard, onions, radish. Last month to plant~ spinach, strawberry & collards.

Central FL beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, collards, kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, english peas, radish. Last month to plant spinach, strawberry & turnips.

South FL all beans, beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, collards, corn, cucumber, Kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, all peas, potatoes, radish, spinach, tomato, turnips. Last month to plant strawberry.

November
1~ Plant flowers root vegetables and seedbeds. Can, brew, cut to slow growth.
2-6 Kill things, tear things down, clean, paint and move on, quit smoking and other habits.
7-8 Plant Root crops, flowers and seedbeds. Get married, go start at a new goal.
9-10 Plant root crops. Harvest, can, jam & prune trees.
11 Plant leafy greens. Cut firewood, go hunting, dig holes, cut to increase growth.
12-13 No plant. Castrate, dig holes, clean, advertise, go on a vacation.
14-16 Plant all vegetables. Bake, wean, castrate, make changes.
21-22 No Planting. Bake, dig holes, cut to increase growth.
23-24 Plant everything. Bake dig holes, get married, advertise cut firewood. Quit smoking.
25-26 Paint, wash, slaughter
27-28 Plant can, brew, mow to slow growth
29-30 Kill things, harvest, can, brew, dry, change, quit, demolish
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November Garden


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.