Skyepony's WunderBlog

More Hail and High Winds Updated 3/28/2016

By: Skyepony, 1:41 PM GMT on March 24, 2016

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Updated 3/28/2016
The hail continues to fall. Parts of Florida were hit yesterday and overnight. Melbourne NWS tweeted this graphic comparing this event in Poinciana to a memorable hail storm that occurred in Orlando, in 1992. Heard some personal accounts of people that went through a heavy hail event in tents and campers in St Lucie county, near Okeechobee last night. There was at least one tent collapse. People were running for cover in the middle of it. There were several reports from OSCEOLA and LAKE county of hail and winds. Further south in Broward more hail reports were generated.


3/25/2016
As the storm system moved east a few tornadoes were reported. One in CALCASIEU, LA lifted the roof of a home occupied by people. None were injured. Winds again were the main issue with this system. There were some sporadic straight line events confirmed in CALCASIEU and BEAUREGARD, LA. WILKINSON, MS had a lot of trees come down and a few roofs blow off. MOBILE, AL had WIND DAMAGE TO THE ROOF OF APARTMENTS ON UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH ALABAMA CAMPUS. ESCAMBIA, AL was hit hard by winds, they had everything from trailer to trampoline damage. There is a general area in south central AL that had a dense cluster of wind reports. Wind damage extended north, also hard hit was ST. JOSEPH, IN with lots of trees down, building and outbuilding damage, power outages and a blown out store front window. A restaurant lost it's tin roof in CLINCH GA. There were trees down across ALACHUA FL. There was a barn roof lost in BALDWIN, FL and 14 MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED in PASCO, FL.

This has been one of the worst winters in general for the Southeast craft and fairs. Wind has destroyed many tents this year. This storm has been no exception..


Published on Mar 25, 2016 by: Matt Mattson
Fairhope Alabama F1 Tornado occurred in conjunction with the Fairhope arts and crafts show downtown. Reportedly 600 tents went down there - at the 181 show there was a 100% loss of tents that were standing although some (including one of ours) were able to be salvaged.




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Storm reports are rolling in as the next event has begun. Colorado had heavy snow overnight. JEFFERSON reported the most with 31.6 inches in 18 hours.

The high winds in Texas have continued. TRAVIS had winds measured at 67mph overnight as well as nickel size hail. Penny size fell in WILSON.

FORT WORTH TX NWS had reports roll in last night of a wind rolled storage building, a destroyed barn and golfball size hail.

KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO NWS reported a tractor trailer blown off the road and smaller (up to an inch), abundant hail covering the ground.

Norman, OK and AR had numerouns reports of higher than 60mph winds and hail as well. A few homes were damaged and one destroyed in AR. One person was treated for minor cuts.

Hail and high winds seem to be the major complaints with this system. As it moves east some tornadoes are also expected.

PHOTO CREDIT: WASHINGTON COUNTY SHERIFF'S OFFICE


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Ice is Really Near Peak This Time

The Arctic has gained sea ice and is barely out of record low territory. On day 85 the extent expanded to 12.88645 million square km. This barely bested the record so far this year that occurred 11 days prior.

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Storm Reports

Spring Break: Radioactive Biscayne Bay

By: Skyepony, 4:20 PM GMT on March 20, 2016

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Spring Break: Don't Drown, Get Shot or Litter!

Spring Break is ongoing in the area. Rip currents have been high on both Florida coasts. There has been a few rescues in Jupiter. Though more have flocked to Daytona Beach than in over a decade, Miami Beach looks like the crazy hot spot this year with some riots and a shooting death. It's estimated that there is hundreds of thousands gathered there. The trash and litter is out of hand despite clean campaign efforts. Much trash was seen leaving on the tide. The party moved out of Panama City Beach after getting out of hand last year and Panama Beach responding with a beach drinking ban.. image credit:abc

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Wildlife Selfie: Try and Refrain!

There was a man in Palm Beach that pulled a shark out of the water for a picture with it. This followed a rash of wildlife forced selfies recently which included a baby dolphin that died in Argentina after being passed around and a swan that perished in Macedonia after being drug out of the water for forced selfies.

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Biscayne Bay: Just a Little Radioactive

It hasn't been a month since University of Miami reconfirmed 215 times the higher than normal amounts of the radioactive isotope tritium in Biscayne Bay. FPL isn't concerned about the starkly above background levels as it is still 78% below federal standards for drinking water. There is also pockets of ammonia that FPL says has collected in the bottom of some wells due to decaying vegetation. They plan to pump these out and add that water back to their 168mile closed canal cooling system for the nuclear power plant. Last month Judge Bram E.E. Canter recommended the EPA come up with a solution for the canal that is causing an underground plume of saltwater to migrate west 5-6 miles from the plant contaminating fresh water wells. Miami Herald had an article yesterday highlighting more about the issue, though much is still unknown they generally are reassuring the public. They are stating facts like tritium is one of the least dangerous and shorter lived radioactive materials and that this just indicates that Turkey Point's cooling canal is leaking. The other approach is calming suggestions like don't panic and it's okay to swim in the bay and eat it's fish.


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Spring Break Radioactive Biscayne Bay Emeraude

Zika Risk Modeled for the US

By: Skyepony, 4:02 AM GMT on March 17, 2016

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Potential Zika virus risk estimated for 50 U.S. cities

NCAR and NASA Marshall Space Flight Center models show conditions favorable for Zika to take hold in several cities this year. They used travel data, and expected weather conditions that would support Aedes aegypti, the mosquito vector for spreading Zika, to develop this risk map. NCAR's report can be found here.


Figure 1. Many U.S. cities face potential risk in summer of low, moderate, or high populations of the mosquito species that transmits Zika virus (colored circles). The mosquito has been observed in parts of the United States (shaded portion of map) and can establish populations in additional cities because of favorable summertime meteorological conditions. In addition, Zika risk may be elevated in cities with more air travelers arriving from Latin America and the Caribbean (larger circles)

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Zika Virus Tropics

New Sea Ice Extent Peak 2016

By: Skyepony, 9:31 PM GMT on March 13, 2016

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A New Season Peak


Though the Arctic Sea Ice is still in record low territory for the date, we had a slow four day increase, from 12.72337 million square km to a new peak for the year yesterday of 12.85256 million square km. This barely beat out this year's previous peak on day 57 of 12.84309 million sq km.

Today the sea ice has begun it's decline again, down to 12.83975 million square km. It probably will continue to do so for the short term. The warm air sweeping toward the Arctic, up the east side of Greenland is arriving a few days later than expecting. The cold pool at the surface to the west of Greenland is cooler than anticipated.



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Arctic Sea Ice

Flooded Horse Rescue

By: Skyepony, 4:37 AM GMT on March 11, 2016

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Severe Weather




Over 4500 have fled as waters still rise. The death toll is now five. Several schools are closed and homes flooded. Things seem especially tense in Bossier City, LA where the levee containing a Bayou is near to being topped.








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GEOS-5 March outlook for March precipitation anomaly mid-country looks ever bit as doom as the last two months' outlook of it. West coast is looking at a very wet month. After which the precipitation drops to average or slightly above average through August. Florida is left on the dry side in the months ahead.
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That Looked Like Peak
Arctic Sea Ice has fallen again. We are back in record low territory for the date. Last week we had a brief recovery and then fall. That may have been peak for the winter. The two other winters with similiar ENSO conditions are 1983 and 1998...here are their ONI numbers for DJF, peak sea ice day of the year & how many Million Sq Km of Arctic sea ice at peak.

year ONI day Million Sq km of sea ice
1983 2.1 57 14.75
1998 2.1 58 14.54
2016 2.2 57 12.84

2015 had it's sea ice peak on day 47 with 13.27.

1998 set the new minimum as well. How the feedback has played, expect to see a new record low this year.

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Flood

Day 2: Peak Past / Severe Weather

By: Skyepony, 7:08 PM GMT on March 08, 2016

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Severe Weather




Already children have been rescued from their flooded School bus in North TX and a man's body has been recovered after he went fishing in a canoe with a friend on the Bayou in the storm last night. He had no life vest on.

Day 2: A 30 year old guy in Southeast Oklahoma drown last night trying to drive his truck over a flooded bridge. His passenger swam to safety. Firefighters used boats to rescue people from an apartment building in Greenwood, LA. That tornado video from yesterday, that did hit a trailer park. Two other tornadoes hit Stephenville and Cool, TX causing an injury in each. A storm also destroyed dozens of boats at Lake Benbrook and tossed the picnic tables into the lake.


This looks like the video from Tolar in the SPC report.



Day 2:





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GEOS-5 March outlook for March precipitation anomaly mid-country looks ever bit as doom as the last two months' outlook of it. West coast is looking at a very wet month. After which the precipitation drops to average or slightly above average through August. Florida is left on the dry side in the months ahead.
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ESPI is 1.47, up from 1.21 last week. GEOS-5 has been trending toward La Nina come summer.
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A site to check out storms.
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That Looked Like Peak
Arctic Sea Ice has fallen again. We are back in record low territory for the date. Last week we had a brief recovery and then fall. That may have been peak for the winter. The two other winters with similiar ENSO conditions are 1983 and 1998...here are their ONI numbers for DJF, peak sea ice day of the year & how many Million Sq Km of Arctic sea ice at peak.

year ONI day Million Sq km of sea ice
1983 2.1 57 14.75
1998 2.1 58 14.54
2016 2.2 57 12.84

2015 had it's sea ice peak on day 47 with 13.27.

1998 set the new minimum as well. How the feedback has played, expect to see a new record low this year.

Current Arctic Satellite View




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Arctic Sea Ice Severe Weather

Weather Tour: 3/6/2016

By: Skyepony, 2:41 AM GMT on March 07, 2016

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Monsanto is threatening to pull it's seeds out of India because the government wants to cut the royalty fees Monsanto charges for it's seeds. India currently only allows Monsanto bt cotton seeds to be grown. No GMO food crops are allowed.

This would be a good thing for organic sewers. Organic cotton has become somewhat of an expensive rarity. My favorite affordable source for it is from India, an Etsy Shop called Anne Georges's Fabric Treasury.

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Video of a murder of crows caught up in Storm Jake.
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ESPI is 1.45, up from 1.21 last week. GEOS-5 has been trending toward La Nina toward the end of the year now.
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The Marine Corps plan to move 1,185 tortoises out of the Mojave Desert to the cost $50 million dollars so can they hold war games without killing the turtles. Though there is speculation and past results pointing out many will most likely die anyway from the move. These tortoises are very much drought stressed as well.
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Looking at damage reports from the West Coast Storms..MONTEREY & SANTA CRUZ CA have experienced debis flows, some roads are blocked. Yesterday had some high winds in the same area, CONTRA COSTA was the winner with 88mph. There were power outages through that night across San Francisco. Three inches of rain fell before it turned to snow in TRINITY CA. The wind winner from HANFORD CA NWS was KERN with 75mph.
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Arctic Sea Ice has fallen again. We are back in record low territory for the date. It is possible, but not certain that we have already reached peak Arctic Sea Ice for the year.

Current Arctic Satellite View


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Tropics Arctic

CONUS Weather, Arctic and Invests: 3/4/2016

By: Skyepony, 2:04 PM GMT on March 04, 2016

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Launch tonight, window opens at 6:35pm et.
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East Coast Swirl Watching

The low is pulling away from the east coast. Models vary as to how warm core this gets and where. GEOS-5 has it asymmetric warm core as it steps off into the Atlantic, then looking more extratropical as it goes north.. Added a MODIS still shot to the right. Here is the file index for retrieving the most current pic.

GFS has it getting warmer as it goes north, presenting more like a hurricane than an extratropical storm once it is off the coast of Greenland.

CMC looks a little more reasonable in that it has a brief period of being somewhat asymmetrical warm core before going extratropical. Keeps the wind radius somewhat small though.



West Coast
Things still look good for a few wet weeks ahead.. Central California northward looks like the real rain winners but a few storms should bring some rain to Southern California as well.



Central CONUS Severe Weather There is a storm the models have latched on to for next week that has been looking rather nasty run to run. Heavy rains, hail, high winds and some tornadoes may come of this system. The last run looks a little less over all severe but shows a lot of instability.



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Arctic Sea Ice has fallen again. We are back in record low territory for the date.

Current Arctic Satellite View


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Arctic Record Low Tropics CONUS Weather


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.