Skyepony's WunderBlog

Storms Brew as Warm Minimum Records Rise

By: Skyepony, 4:22 AM GMT on July 24, 2016

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06W NIDA




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Daily Minimum Temperatures are on the rise locally and globally.

Locally, in Melbourne, we have had several daily warm minimum temperature records broken or tied recently. There was a four day run from July 18-21 when this occurred daily. July 18th was particularly warm with 83ºF for the low that day. Not only did it set a new daily record for the day and for the month of July, it also tied the all-time warmest minimum temperature records previously on August 21st, 2007 and September 6th, 2007. Melbourne weather records go back to 1937.

Nationally and globally warm minimum records have taken a commanding lead of the weather records this year, followed by record warm high temperatures and precipitation records. The year to date global daily records count so far is: Warm Minimum 36604, High Maximum 30776, Precipitation 27624, Low Minimum 5590, and Snowfall 4164. In the last 30 days there has been 4363 Warm Minimum, 2760 Precipitation and 2167 Warm Maximum daily records set.

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Warm Minimum Temperature Records Tropics Record Heat 97L 96L Nika

Local Erosion: One Condo's Story

By: Skyepony, 5:42 AM GMT on July 20, 2016

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Sea level rise and erosion can be deceiving in East Central Florida; we are fighting it as the Gulf Stream holds back some of the potential tide. As sea level threats have been realized, building requirements have changed. New construction is usually done on a four foot or higher pad of hauled in dirt. This has actually raised the land somewhat over the years from housing developments in places like Merritt Island where land was as low as 1 or 2 feet above sea level and then filled and raised for homes. Much sand and dirt is also deposited on a regular basis to save the beach and State Road A1A. Beach re-nourishment is common as are the ever higher dunes that have sprung up along the beach edge over the years.

The older properties show what they have withstood from the rising sea and the generally shrinking beach. They are reminders of our lessons and an inspiration that we have successfully held our shore. In this case a condo, built in 1973, along the ocean shore in Satellite Beach.

From Google earth we can see how precariously close to the sea Paradise Beach Club is perched. Even though sea walls are generally not permitted in Satellite Beach this condominium complex is protected by one. It is an older sea wall or two that dates back to the era when that was thought to be the answer to save our beachside communities and A1A.


Figure 1. A google Earth image, the Paradise Beach club is circled in red. West of there is 125 acres of vacant land that was once Patrick Air Force Base Housing. This area was flooded in both hurricane Erin and the hurricanes of 2004. It has since been determined to be in a 100 year flood zone, demolished and sold to developers.


Figure 2. Standing on the seawall looking south (left) and north (right). The support pillars for this condo are only 5-7 ft from the beach below.

Painted with a sea creature mural the sea wall looks to have seen some waves and time. From a satellite picture from 1994 a smaller sea wall looked to be in place. A 1999 pass showed the larger wider topped seawall. From below it looks like the seawall has been made taller at some point.



From old maps and the fresh construction to the south. This condo, though recently updated, has outlasted it's neighbor condo. Satellite beach is no stranger to the damage of the sea, as can be seen in this October 2015 video Some Satellite Beach residents concerned about beach erosion

After days of clean water the winds shifted some from the south. No longer was the ocean a green blue pretty. Near shore a brown tide that smelled like nothing I ever had was trapped near the beach.


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08E GEORGETTE


07E FRANK


05E DARBY



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Launch Tonight/ Private Insurers Foot Cloud Seeding/ 03W Finally..

By: Skyepony, 4:30 PM GMT on July 17, 2016

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LAUNCH TONIGHT



Live Launch Coverage Spaceflightnow
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket will go from Cape Canaveral to low Earth orbit in 10 minutes Monday with a Dragon capsule heading for the International Space Station carrying nearly 5,000 pounds of supplies and experiments.

Liftoff is set for 0445:29 GMT (12:45:29 p.m. EDT) Monday from Cape Canaveral’s Complex 40 launch pad.

It will be the 27th flight of a Falcon 9 rocket, and the seventh launch of the booster’s latest configuration with higher-thrust engines and densified super-cold propellants. The launch will be the ninth of least 26 resupply missions under contract to SpaceX to depart for the space station.


Launch forecast from U.S. Air Force’s 45th Weather Squadron is 90% chance good launch weather.

I should be viewing this launch from the LCC (Launch Control Center) Parking Lot. Check back for pictures.

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HAIL ISSUES: INSURANCE COMPANIES PAY FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION WHILE BUSINESSES TAKE SHELTER

Interesting article from Medicine Hat News..in Canada there is a Hail Alley of sorts. It is in the area just south of Calgary north to central Alberta. There has been regular high hail damage events over the years. It's an area where the businesses and the insurance industry struggles to make viable.

Businesses starting with a car dealer are using the ever more popular large tents or atmospheric protectors that are springing up across different industries.

The tents can protect 170 vehicles and it has attracted a steady stream of other dealerships and businesses to check them out.

The insurance industry has been looking at ways to reduce the payouts for years, including cloud seeding as a way of hail suppression. Seeding thunderstorms with silver iodide particles results in the formation of billions of additional ice crystals, which can produce smaller ice particles.

“It’s really tough to say if you’re being successful at avoiding something. The cloud seeding that’s paid for by the private insurers … we believe it’s working,” said Heather Mack, from the Insurance Bureau of Canada.


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03W


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06E ESTELLE


05E DARBY


04E CELIA


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01S ABELA


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Dust Devil at The Gorge

By: Skyepony, 3:59 AM GMT on July 16, 2016

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Phish has hit the West Coast. They are playing at Gorge Amphitheater, George, WA tonight. A dust devil hit some phans camping today before the show.


Published on Jul 15, 2016 by tara fowler

my mellow morning panorama video at the Gorge caught instant chaos in the form of a tornado. From the top of our RV. Premier Campground. Friday July 15, 2016 - Phish. (there is some cursing)


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06E ESTELLE


05E DARBY


04E CELIA


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01S


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Tropics Phish Dust Devil

Tropical Instability Waves

By: Skyepony, 4:37 AM GMT on July 10, 2016

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The Pacific Ocean has been putting on a show that can be seen in the data graphs with beautiful standing waves and swirls of opposites as the last of the heat from El Niño struggles against the cold of the coming La Niña conditions, with influences from the height of summer in one hemisphere opposing the height of winter in the other. The yin-yang of cold and hot causes atmospheric currents to oppose each other as well. This effect plays out at the surface causing swirling opposing ocean currents. This phenomenon is known as Tropical Instability Waves (TIW).

Along the area of uprising cooler water the current generally flows west. Most of the cold water swirls flow counter clockwise and the warm eddies flow clockwise. The coldest and warmest tend to flow in the opposite directions as expected, while some currents are forced by stronger currents around them.



Figure 1. This shows the sea surface temperature anomalies. Warmer than normal temperatures are shown in reds with the warmest being yellow, while the cooler than normal water is depicted in purple with the coldest areas being blue. The surface currents are noted with white lines, the brighter end is the direction of the current swirl. This image can be seen animated at earth.nullschool.


Figure 2 is the Equatorial currents and can be viewed in full animation at Equatorial Pacific Current RTOFS Nowcast/Forecast


The Tropical Storms in the Eastern Pacific are forecast in this Equatorial Pacific heat Flux graphic, to leave their influence on the Tropical Instability Waves. Figure 3 can be seen in animation at RTOFS Equatorial Pacific Heat Flux.

Figure 3. Air-sea fluxes, which exchange energy between the ocean and atmosphere, are key climatic processes that influence oceanic and atmospheric circulation, timing and extent of redistribution of heat from the tropics to the poles, and global and regional precipitation patterns. Precise quantification of energy fluxes, which at certain regions and times can reach tens-to-hundreds of watts/m2, are necessary to close the energy balance of the Earth. (NOAA)

Tropical Instability Waves are somewhat common during Northern Hemisphere summer & fall when transitioning to La Nina. Coming from such an extreme El Nino seems to be amplifying the effect. The cold/hot currents eddies move to the west with an average period of 30 days and are about 700miles apart. This has made for large and quick steps in the change of this ENSO event as the waves have paraded by, not just in the sea surface temperature anomalies in region 3,4 but also in the amount of rainfall along the equator. The ESPI index has had several large and erratic changes in its overall plummet down ahead of an expected La Nina. It was at -.90 not even a week ago, then up to -.23 and now -.93.

Another perspective to view the Tropical Instability Waves from is the surface mixed layer as we can glimpse how it folds and unfolds at depth. Along the equator the turbulence is occurring more at the surface, while toward the edges of the Tropical Instability Waves the turbulence runs deeper.

Figure 4. The surface mixed layer is a layer where turbulence is generated by winds, surface heat fluxes, or processes such as evaporation which results in an increase in salinity. This image can be seen animated at RTOFS.

Though Salinity is increased some along the equator, overall the Tropical Instability Waves look more caught between yet another clash. To the south of the equator is an area of higher salinity, while to the north the salinity is lower.

Figure 5. RTOFS Equatorial Salinity Nowcast/Forecast



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Tropical Instability Waves Tropics

July 2016 Garden Blog

By: Skyepony, 3:23 AM GMT on July 10, 2016

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July gardening in Florida is harvesting, keeping the weeds down..North & central FL can still plant a few summer type plants. South FL should plant nothing this month. August is huge planting month for all of FL. So get ready..July is a good month to plan & order seeds for fall & winter plants. Look for a few cloudy cooler hours this month to keep the beds & containers up if you can, makes fall garden go in alot easier.

North FL~ Lima Beans, southern peas (cow, black eyed), okra, eggplant, gourds & watermelon.

Central FL~ okra, southern peas & gourds.

South FL~ Plant nothing.

Moon Calendar: July 2016
1-2 Kill pests, prepare garden beds. Cut to slow growth. Make chances like quit bad habits, get a pet. Host a party.
3 Transplant, plant root vegetables, can, brew & marry.
4 Plant above ground crops. Cut to increase growth, dig holes, bake and entertain.
5-9 Kill pests, prepare garden beds. Make big purchases, travel, host a party and do maintenance.
10-11 Plant grains and above ground crops. Bake buy clothes and entertain.
12-14 Plant above ground crops. Cut to increase growth. Dig holes, paint and clean.


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Florida July 2016 Garden

Severe Weather, Nepartak, Blas & Celia

By: Skyepony, 3:16 AM GMT on July 01, 2016

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July gardening in Florida is harvesting, keeping the weeds down..North & central FL can still plant a few summer type plants. South FL should plant nothing this month. August is huge planting month for all of FL. So get ready..July is a good month to plan & order seeds for fall & winter plants. Look for a few cloudy cooler hours this month to keep the beds & containers up if you can, makes fall garden go in alot easier.

North FL~ Lima Beans, southern peas (cow, black eyed), okra, eggplant, gourds & watermelon.

Central FL~ okra, southern peas & gourds.

South FL~ Plant nothing.

Moon Calendar: July 2016
1-2 Kill pests, prepare garden beds. Cut to slow growth. Make chances like quit bad habits, get a pet. Host a party.
3 Transplant, plant root vegetables, can, brew & marry.
4 Plant above ground crops. Cut to increase growth, dig holes, bake and entertain.
5-9 Kill pests, prepare garden beds. Make big purchases, travel, host a party and do maintenance.
10-11 Plant grains and above ground crops. Bake buy clothes and entertain.
12-14 Plant above ground crops. Cut to increase growth. Dig holes, paint and clean.


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02W NEPARTAK








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04E CELIA


03E BLAS



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As the cyclones start to struggle damage on land is picking up. Overnight Asheville, NC was hit with some weather. Over 5,000-lost power according to Duke Power. One was a friend. She posted a pic of this tree down. It hit her Neighbor's car, another tree took out the electricity.

There was a tornado in Kentucky.

Thousands more lost power in Kansas. Several trees ended up in homes.

Tens of thousands were evacuated from the Tim McGraw show at Common Ground in Michigan due to a lightning storm.


Two died in India's on going flooding from a landslide. Hail destroyed pear and apple crops in Spain.

Flood has affected more than 6000 in Myanmar. 64 wards and villages were mostly submerged as were 240 schools, destroyed the shrimp farms.

Looking at the videos this only begins to account for the flooding going on right now. From those a look to China, which has been really taking some flooding lately, is due..


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Florida Garden July Nepartak Agatha Blas


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.