Quiet - Just The Way We Like It

By: TheCaneWhisperer , 8:54 PM GMT on March 31, 2007

CURRENT IMAGE FROM JUPITER INLET

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Tropical Awareness!




My 2007 Prediction (Revised 8/7/07)
11 Named Storms (Remaining)
7 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

10/11/07
No Gnews is Good Gnews, that's all :-)



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Florida Drought Awareness

6/24/07
Based on current rainfall totals in Palm Beach we SHOULD pull out of this drought for now. I will discontinue updates until they are warranted again. I will continue to update the record low Lake Okeechobee.

UPDATED DAILY & 8AM
Current Lake Okeechobee water level: 9.41ft.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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213. Beachfoxx
12:48 PM GMT on August 13, 2007
Let's hope that this storm does not build... the heat and warm waters are really going to feed it. Esp. if it gets in the GOM. The spaghetti maps are all showing the same tracks. Very consistent!
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212. homegirl
11:53 AM GMT on August 13, 2007
Oh and a quick caution, not sure how old the little one is, but my son bucked out of his swing at 2.5 months. Didn't have him strapped in. Always use the strap :)
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211. homegirl
11:50 AM GMT on August 13, 2007
Well, that certainly is a troubling graphic.

I mean the hurricane forecast of course! Not the adorable girl in the swing. :)
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210. GetReal
8:06 AM GMT on August 13, 2007
On a side note, putting extra heat into the mix over the GOM, NOLA reached 102 degrees today. It is currently 87 degrees this moment... Talk about HOT and humid... Hate to say it, but it is nearly the same type weather we had two weeks prior to Katrina... Hope this is not one of those omens of things to come...
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209. TheCaneWhisperer
8:03 AM GMT on August 13, 2007
Sea temps are red hot off our coast. Hate to think of 90L hitting others but, looks like South Florida will have some defense up by way of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. Heck, if it doesn't get cranking soon Cuba will be in the mix.
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208. GetReal
8:00 AM GMT on August 13, 2007
Yeah that is the scenerio that I began looking at yesterday. If it goes that route it will effect millions of people personally, and others at the gas pump if it continues towards the central GOM!
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207. TheCaneWhisperer
7:57 AM GMT on August 13, 2007
Looking at the 72hr surface map, we may be in for that scenario. 2 ridges, separated by a surface trough. Not enough to re-curve but, enough to draw it NW close to Fla. How strong that second ridge is to be is going to be the key.
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206. GetReal
7:53 AM GMT on August 13, 2007
Good morning CW... I can't believe how upset some of these people get over a model dropping a system on one or two runs... Especially when you can see that 90L is coming into a prime area for further development, and may already by a TS.

I resided in your area of Florida I believe that I would like this system to stay down south, in the Caribbean. If this system was to jump a little north, as CMC indicated on last run, it would be turned back west similar to an Andrew track towards S. Florida.
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205. 7daysnopowerfrancis
1:56 AM GMT on August 13, 2007
My girlfriend had her daughter on October 16th, and Wilma hit October 24th? That was fun. The good thing was she lives on a great grid so she only lost power for 24 hours.

I should be so lucky (residential PBG).

Again, think Wind shear!!!!!!
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204. TheCaneWhisperer
2:07 PM GMT on August 12, 2007
Dr. Masters just updated with his thoughts. NO HURRICANES HERE PLEASE! Wouldn't that be wonderful with a new baby.
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203. aquak9
2:02 PM GMT on August 12, 2007
ok, I re-read what you had posted, and realized I had mis-interpreted your post. Thanks for the reply.

No one wants this mess anywhere. Jacksonville has so few natives; everyone here is a recent transplant, it seems. No hurricanes here since 1964, and everyone seems to think we are under a "safe bubble".

Will be hoping for the best for all of us.
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202. TheCaneWhisperer
1:59 PM GMT on August 12, 2007
Thank You Beachfoxx :-)

Little Miss Sunshine.
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201. TheCaneWhisperer
1:59 PM GMT on August 12, 2007
Definitely don't want it coming here. As this area progresses across the Atlantic is what mean. Basically, I am leaning to the GFS up to 4 days out, progressively. Beyond four days out the GFS is doing very poorly with the dynamics (Fronts and what not). So, 3 days from now, I will still only look at the GFS 4 days beyond that and so on. When the area is 4 days away from the US, if that is where it is to be, I will look at the GFS track at that time and put some stock in it.
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200. Beachfoxx
1:49 PM GMT on August 12, 2007
Cane, She is beautiful!!!
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199. aquak9
1:47 PM GMT on August 12, 2007
G'morning TCW. I saw this on Doc's blog, and wanted to ask you about it...but I didn't want to try to ask on Doc's blog, cause it's so busy over there.

Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 9:43 AM EDT on August 12, 2007.
Inside 4 days though, the GFS is nailing this area and has been for some time. I and many others, for sure, will be leaning more towards the GFS solution as this are progresses.


If the GFS has this headed for your area, is this what you want? or have I misunderstood your post? Thanks.
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198. plywoodstatenative
2:52 PM GMT on August 10, 2007
i have never heard of a model repeatedly hitting the same solution over and over, and not having something form and follow the suggested track. I believe at one point the count was up to 15 runs of the GFS model with the same solution coming up with the CV wave. Now if that happens, well you will see a # of us here in the blog physically bend over and kiss our rear ends goodbye.
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197. TheCaneWhisperer
4:21 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
Sorry I didn't answer Rain, extremely busy at work. Thanks for fielding that one Bob! I figured that Dr. Masters would jump on board today, as his update yesterday was before the models really started to pick up on things. Tropics can change in an instant and frequently do. But, rest assured I will be watching the Cape Verde possibility very closely. I have that fatherly instinct kicking in now, lol.
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196. Rainman32
3:58 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
Posted by: JeffMasters, 11:08 AM EDT on August 09, 2007

What the computer models forecast
Most of the computer models are forecasting very low levels of wind shear for the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico developing early next week. Two computer models, the NOGAPS and ECMWF, predict a tropical depression could form in this region as early as Tuesday. The GFS and UKMET models do not, but do show something developing off the coast of Africa next week. We are starting to approach the peak part of hurricane season, and I expect that our next tropical depression will form in one of these two areas by the end of next week.


That's better Doc, tell it like it is.. no one should be silly enough to believe in the exact solution of any model but they are all hinting at what is expected anyways
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195. Rainman32
1:24 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
Well I have noticed the feature on GFS for at least a couple of days.. but I can give the doc a bye for now. we'll see what his next post says!
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194. weatherguy03
1:20 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
Oh ok Rain..LOL
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193. weatherguy03
1:20 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
It is showing a Cape Verde system developing this weekend and moving all the way across the Atlantic next week. It just starting picking up on this late yesterday before Doc updated his blog.
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192. Rainman32
1:10 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
OK thanks WG03.. so is the GFS not showing development in the next 7 days?

add: I just saw your update '03.. I see you are not in the same timid area the doc was at last post
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191. Rainman32
1:09 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
Oh agreed PSN.. just trying to get a handle on why most of the models are hinting at develpment of one sort and place or another but folks are carefully saying "none of the reliable models" are.. the GFS solution does not fare well for me as an ARC volunteer either
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190. weatherguy03
1:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
Reliable. GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET. IMO. Add GFDL when a system forms.
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189. plywoodstatenative
1:05 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
let the models forecast what they want, all I know is if anything approaches Florida, it most likely will undergo rapid intesification due to the high temps with the gulf stream or if it goes through the carib god knows what it could do combined with the sst's of the gulf stream and the carib.
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188. Rainman32
12:57 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
Hey TCW! I'm going to start asking this question around, I know it'll get buried in Doc's blog. My question is: What are the "reliable models"? Doc says none are forecasting development of a tropical storm over the next seven days.... but the GFS and NAM are the only two WU has on it's model page, wouldn't those be reliable? perhaps it is simply very careful wording about it being a TS.. although not really sure how well you could extrapolate when a storm becomes TS status by model anyhow.
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187. TheCaneWhisperer
12:54 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
I was looking at the SST's, their cooking up and down the coast.
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186. plywoodstatenative
12:52 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
with the SST's and the heat potential as high as they are, who knows. All I know is if what had happened in 05 did not occur, then we would be in our norm right now for a strike, but since that freak of a season happened everything really is up in the air as to what to expect.
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185. TheCaneWhisperer
12:50 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
Long track Cape Verde storms are one of the hardest to track, too many variables. Sometimes it is a no brainer but, throw in a couple fronts and factors to it's south and it becomes very difficult.
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184. TheCaneWhisperer
12:48 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
6Z is back on a Frances, Jeanne scenario. Granted it is all over the place but, it has been very consistent with it's existence. It's a crap shoot as to where it will go depending on the strength of the High.
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183. plywoodstatenative
12:43 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
put it this way, speaking about south florida the only hit we have had has been from the west that being Wilma. Before that, with major hurricanes that is, the last hit was from Andrew. Central Florida/North Florida got nailed during 04 and I can not forsee that happening again, but the GFS keeps bringing up this storm and impacting it somewhere from the east coast traversing it to the Gulf Coast much like Andrew.
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182. TheCaneWhisperer
12:38 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
I was not following Hurricanes at that time plywood, I can't comment. Climatologically speaking, a repeat of Andrew was up last year.
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181. plywoodstatenative
12:28 PM GMT on August 09, 2007
I sincerely was hoping that I would not have to be activated by the red cross to help with shelter operations here in northern broward county. But that looks like it will end, however I need to remind someone of something. Doesn't this scenario seem like the models are going back to the days of andrew before he made landfall?
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180. TheCaneWhisperer
4:46 PM GMT on August 07, 2007
-Thanks for the nice words Bob! A lot of season left but, I think this year just goes to show how much more we need to learn about mother nature.

-Thanks Susan, I will keep you in mind. We already worked through a lactose intolerance, that was fun, sigh.

-Thanks PBG00, I hope so too. Not quite sure how she would handle it, scary thought though, lol.
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179. PBG00
3:30 PM GMT on August 07, 2007
Wow..Congrats!! soo cute. Hopefully another slow season for us in the gardens.
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178. 7daysnopowerfrancis
3:27 PM GMT on August 07, 2007
I have heard good things about Wellington. If you have any questions, let us know. We may know hurricanes, but we also know other stuff too.

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177. weatherguy03
1:01 PM GMT on August 07, 2007
Very cute TCW. Yeah its hard to pull yourself away from her, your a good daddy!! Have fun and thanks for update!
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176. TheCaneWhisperer
12:30 PM GMT on August 07, 2007
Thank you all for the nice comments :-) She is a little princess.

-Thank You Boynton :-)

-I have lived here for 6 years 7days. Loving every minute of it. 3 years in the Gardens, much better than West Palm if you ask me.

-Thanks Bob, I see what you mean now about not being here much. Easy to think you will but, hard to tear yourself away from the little one.

-I am glad things went well for you Skye, where are my pics, lol?

-Thank You Appalachiangypsy, seems to be a popular name these days according to our nurse. Isabella Ann Dygulski, lol, she'll be the last one in class to finish spelling her name :-)

-Unfortunatly we had to deliver in Wellington Susan. Her OB/GYN only delivered at Palms West and Wellington Regional, we chose the latter. Congrats to you also, can't explain the feeling and energy you seem to get with little sleep, very powerful :-)
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175. 7daysnopowerfrancis
2:45 AM GMT on August 07, 2007
I had my son in November and daughter four years ago. It just gets better and better. Congratulations!!!!!

Where did you deliver Jupiter?

Fellow gardens hurricane survivor.

Susan
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174. Appalachiangypsy
11:39 PM GMT on August 06, 2007
Congratulation's
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173. Appalachiangypsy
11:38 PM GMT on August 06, 2007
Wow- I have an Anna Isabella :. She's 2.
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172. Skyepony (Mod)
11:20 PM GMT on August 06, 2007
Pretty dang cute:) Had mine the 26th.
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171. weatherguy03
9:22 PM GMT on July 23, 2007
Oh man, I cant believe I missed that. Congrats on the new baby girl TCW!! I noticed you werent around, thought maybe you were on vacation. Nope, no vacation for you!!..LOL I bet you are enjoying it! Fatherhood is a wonderful thing.
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170. BoyntonBeach
9:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2007
" My wife and I just had a beautiful baby girl on the 8th, Isabella Ann "

Congratulation's TCW !
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169. 7daysnopowerfrancis
7:35 PM GMT on July 23, 2007
Hey,

I just noticed you are in the Gardens.....me too.....

How long have you lived in the bullseye? I have lived here off and on since 72.

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168. cyclonebuster
4:55 AM GMT on July 23, 2007
That wasn't predicted to happen untill 2020!!
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167. cyclonebuster
4:50 AM GMT on July 23, 2007
Man with all that C02 how can we predict what will happen 10,20,30,40,50 years from now?
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166. TheCaneWhisperer
4:15 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
You too CA! Thanks! It is beautiful down here! Sorry thing is, last month there was twice as much beach in the image! Andrea did quite a number on our coastline. It is currently low tide, during high tide the beach is almost non-exisitant. Good Holiday to you and your family!
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165. catastropheadjuster
3:13 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
TCW: Very nice blog and I love the pictures. That is so beautiful down there. Hope You have a great Memorial Day. Be safe.
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164. BoyntonBeach
5:59 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
Thank you. Your the first person i've spoken to that has acknowledged even knowing that dogs can & do go blind....anyways....I hope we get a good T-Storm over the weekend !
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163. TheCaneWhisperer
5:35 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
Sorry to hear that Boynton! I had a collie when I was a child and he went blind also. It was amazing how well he adapted, he walked around like he was able to see. Problem arose when my father rearranged the furniture but, still learned quickly!
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