Weather456's Tropical Weather Blog

New Hurricane Names: Tropical Outlook

By: Weather456, 12:43 PM GMT on June 28, 2006

91L continues to move rapidly northward through the mid Atlantic States. Gale force winds could be felt all along the east of the center which will be near New York City today. Flooding is a major threat from Washington D.C. northeastward through the north east during today.


Figure 1 91L

93L is approaching the islands today, while upper level winds are not conducive for development it will still have to be watch for potential development later as it moves northwestward towards the islands, then Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and beyond that is to be seen during the rest of the week into July.


Figure 2 93L

New Hurricane Names

Should the National Hurricane Center or World Meteorological Organization introduce the letters Q, U, X, W, X, Y, Z letters into the naming scheme or introduce surnames to storms?

Answer to Sunday's Question: Hurricane Katrina was more intense than Hurricane Camille. Intensity refers to central pressure. But Hurricane Camille winds were higher than Hurricane Katrina.

91L, 92L and 93L

By: Weather456, 1:47 AM GMT on June 26, 2006

91L
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER LAND.

92L was a non low pressure area that is not expected to develop.

93L is a small area of low pressure located 1200 miles east southeast of the Windward Islands. There is moderate shower activity associated with the westward moving system. SST’s are warm enough to support development and wind sheer is marginally favorable. The steering currents takes it into the Western Caribbean Sea but it might collide with the continent of South America if it doesn’t move north enough. Figure 1 shows the atmospheric analysis around 93L.


Figure 1 93L Atmospheric Analysis


93L Computer Model Forecast


Question of the Day
What was Hurricane Katrina lowest central pressure? Was it more intense than Hurricane Camille?

Friday's Question: Ana was used in 1979, 1985, 1991, 1997, and 2003. Posted by MichaelSTL

My next blog will be Wednesday if a tropical depression doesn’t form before then.



Don’t forget to check out www.weathercore.com and www.stormjunkie .com

The Bahamaian Low

By: Weather456, 2:47 PM GMT on June 23, 2006



91L Invest
A surface circulation formed this morning in relation to the disturbance near the Bahamas. The disturbance is getting better organize and wind shear is decreasing over the region.
The Navy has recognise the disturbance north of the Bahamas early this morning an it was designated 91L. The next step for this to become a depression is to become more organise as most of thundershowers are east of the "center".
If this develops it will likely moved west north west to northwest a seen in the computer models chart.
So the areas of concerns are Florida, Georgia and South Carolina at this point.


91L Computer Model

11:30am EDT Update
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY

02:05pm EDT Update
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26.5N73.5W OR ABOUT 200
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE WEEKEND.

05:30pm EDT Update
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO
GRADUALLY FALL BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.

08:05am EDT June 24 Update
A WESTERN ATLANTIC 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
26N76W...FORECAST TO REACH THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY
24 HOURS. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 25N75W...ABOUT 50 NM EAST OF
ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
24N TO 31N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE ELEUTHERA LOW CENTER. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 20N66W TO 26N88W BEYOND 32N60W.

11:05am EDT June 24 Update
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ANOTHER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.

The rest of the Blog had been lost due to problems.

Other Active Ssytems during the weekend was
92L
93L
92W

Floods in Indonesia
Days of heavy rains led to devastating landslides on the Central Indonesian island of Sulawesi (formerly Celebes) in mid-June 2006. As of June 22, the death toll stood at 200 with 135 still missing, reported the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The hardest hit area was Sinjai in South Sulawesi.

Flooding in Indonesia

Question of the Day.
In What years was the name Ana used for naming atlantic storms?

Answer to Thurday June 22nd Poll
8 persons said Hurricane Mitch was the most intense Atlantic Tropical Cyclone between 1995 and 2004
1 person said hurricane Ivan was the most intense Atlantic Tropical Cyclone between 1995 and 2004.
Ans; Hurricane Mitch of 1998 had a central pressure 905mbr.

Reagarding the picture I posted on WSI blog. It was Hurricane Wilma of 2005 that caused the damage.

Bahamaian Disturbance

By: Weather456, 2:02 PM GMT on June 22, 2006

Bahamaian Disturbance
An upper level low has formed just east of the Bahamas last night. The system has a mid to upper level circulation and is non-tropical and disorganize at this time. This feature will be over warm waters above 80 degrees just enough for tropical development, but the reason this feature has not develop is because of wind shear as seen in the chart below. As shear relaxes this system can acquire tropical characteristics and organize into a tropical system.

Wind Shear over the Disturbance near the Bahamas

If it does develop it will likely move westward bring unsettled weather over Florida and the southeast united states early into next week.

Daily Poll
To promote my blog, I will be having some weather quizzes in my blog entries.

Today's Question
What was the most intense Atlantic Hurricane between 1995 and 2004?

Summer Is Here

By: Weather456, 12:48 PM GMT on June 21, 2006

Today is the official start of Summer in the northern hemisphere and winter in the southern hemisphere. It began today at 12:26 PM UTC. So what are the facts behind summer? Summer is caused by the summer solstice, which occurs around June 21 yearly.

The summer solstice is an astronomical term regarding the position of the sun in relation to the celestial equator. At the time of the summer solstice, Earth is at a point in its orbit where one hemisphere is most tilted towards the sun, causing the sun to appear at 23.45 degrees above the celestial equator, thus making its highest path across the sky. The summer solstice is the day of the year with the longest daylight period and hence the shortest night. This day usually occurs on June 21/June 22 in the northern hemisphere and on December 21/December 22 in the southern hemisphere. The actual date changes due to differences between the calendar year and the tropical year.
At the point of the summer solstice in the Northern Hemisphere the sun appears to be directly overhead at midday along an imaginary line on the Northern Hemisphere at latitude 23.45 deg N known as the Tropic of Cancer. At the summer solstice in the Southern Hemisphere the sun appears directly overhead at midday along an imaginary line 23.45 deg S known as the Tropic of Capricorn. These two lines were so-called because, in ancient times when the first Western astrological charts were set, the sun rose in these constellations at these times.
These lines mark the southern and northern most points where the sun can appear to be directly overhead to an Earth-based observer, and encompass the tropical region of the earth's surface.

Summer is a season, defined by convention in meteorology as the whole months of June, July, and August, in the Northern hemisphere, and the whole months of December, January, and February, in the Southern hemisphere. The exact start of Summer is a matter of convention: in Ireland it is as early as May 1; in many countries it is considered to be June 1, while in many others it is as late as June 21. In general, seasonal changes occur earlier in coastal regions, so countries close to the oceans go for an earlier start to Summer than continental ones. Summer is commonly viewed as the season with the longest (and warmest) days of the year, in which the daylight predominates, through varying degrees. In the northern latitudes, twilight is known to last at least an hour, sometimes leading to the famous white nights found in St. Petersburg and Scandinavia.
It is also called the season of the midnight sun near the North Pole; in Iceland for instance.
Summer is also the season in which many fruits, vegetables, and other plants are in full growth.


Summer Cucumbers


Wheat Field in Denmark


Swedish Summer


Summer Cherries

A Great Hobby
You can create picture graphics like the on seen below feature icons the The Weather Channel but the weather information is from Accuweather and Weather Underground.

Upper Level System Over The Bahamas

By: Weather456, 7:50 PM GMT on June 20, 2006

The Bahamian Upper-Level feature.
An upper level system extends out into the Western Atlantic Ocean, east of The Northern Bahamas and Florida. The upper level system is enchancing clouds, showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas. The system might have a some chance to organize during the middle and end of this week as shear relaxes over the region. Computer models is suggesting that an upper level system might form and a surface feature can from underneath resulting in a developing tropical system.

Any system forming will be steered north west into Florida as seen in the steering current chart, increasing unsettled weather over the region. But the current apparent movement is north to north-east.

Caribbean Wave
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
THIS WAVE JUST HAS CLEARED PUERTO RICO. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD OUT
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W. SOME CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPECIFICALLY
ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THIS WAVE...THANKS TO THE
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 13N58W JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

Eastern Pacific Disturbance
THE LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 825 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.


Steering Currents and Wind Sheer


Caribbean Sea



My next blog will be tomorrow which is the Summer solstice, the beginning of Summer, the best season of the year.

Wonders of Our Planet

By: Weather456, 11:46 PM GMT on June 19, 2006

The following pictures and information is brought to you by Nasa Earth Observatory Natural Hazards.



Ash Plume from Karymsky

The Karymsky Volcano had been erupting several times a day for about a week prior to emitting this ash plume on June 19, 2006. The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this false-color image. In this picture, red indicates vegetation, which is lush around the volcano, but very sparse on its slopes. The water of Karymskoye Lake appears in blue. The volcano’s barren sides are dark gray, and the volcanic plume and nearby haze appear in white or gray.

Karymsky Volcano is the most active volcano in eastern volcanic zone of Kamchatka. The volcano is composed of alternating layers of hardened lava, ash, and rocks. Historical eruptions have involved explosive eruptions of lava fragments and the release of volcanic gases. At the time of the June 19 eruption, Karymsky had an alert status of orange indicating that a small ash eruption was expected or confirmed, but not likely to exceed an altitude greater than 7,620 meters (25,000 feet) above sea level.



Tropical Storm Alberto

Alberto, the first storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall midday on June 13, 2006, along a remote section of the northeast Gulf coast of Florida. As the storm moved inland across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and South and North Carolina, it brought with it heavy but much-needed rain. Wild fires have been a problem across Florida, and the Southeast had been dry in general, so Alberto’s rains were beneficial.

This image shows rainfall totals from Alberto from June 10 through 14, 2006, for Florida and the surrounding region. The image is based on data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The highest rainfall totals for the period (shown in red) were around 400 to 500 millimeters (14 to 20 inches), and they occurred over western Cuba. Widespread areas of rain cover Florida, Georgia, and South and North Carolina. Amounts in those areas are mostly less than 75 millimeters (5 inches), shown in blue. A band of 80 to 100 millimeters (6 to 8 inches) of rain (green and yellow areas) extends from central South Carolina eastward across eastern North Carolina. After making landfall, Alberto’s circulation interacted with a stationary weather front that was draped across the Southeast. The bulk of the rain fell east of the storm track. This is consistent with Alberto’s asymmetric structure due to the wind shear.



Tropics Today
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS DISORGANIZED... AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT... BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.



History of Hurricane Stan

By: Weather456, 3:49 PM GMT on June 15, 2006

A tropical wave, which moved off the African coast on September 17, formed a low pressure area when it reached the western Caribbean Sea and organized into a tropical depression on October 1. Off the coast of the Yucatán Peninsula, it strengthened into Tropical Storm Stan at 1:35 am CDT (0635 UTC) October 2. Stan became just the second 'S' named storm since naming began, the other being Sebastien of 1995.
Stan made landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula and weakened to a tropical depression, but regained tropical storm strength upon reemerging into the Bay of Campeche. By 4 am CDT October 4 (0900 UTC), it had sufficiently strengthened to be given hurricane status. Stan made landfall later that morning in the east-central coast of Mexico, south of Veracruz, as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, then weakened to a tropical storm early that afternoon.
Hurricane Stan's ability to create havoc in the mountainous regions of southern Mexico and Central America due to landslides and flooding meant that the U.S. National Hurricane Center did not stop issuing advisories on it until October 5 at 0900 UTC. More

Tropical Weather Outlook
The remnant circulation of former Tropical Depression Alberto...
which is now an extratropical storm area...is located a few hundred
miles south of western Nova Scotia.
Shower activity associated with the tropical wave located about 1000
miles east of the southern Windward Islands has diminished.



Hurricane Stan (2005)

Tropical Storm Alberto; Whats Next?

By: Weather456, 7:58 PM GMT on June 13, 2006

Tropical storm Alberto made landfall at 12:30pm EDT on June 13 2006.

History of Alberto
Alberto formed from a broad low-pressure area off the coast of Belize on June 10. It organized over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and was upgraded to Tropical Depression One on June 11. The storm entered the gulf, where unfavorable conditions cause the storm to develop slowly, but in the face of high wind sheer and dry air it was able to attain tropical storm status and was named Alberto on June 11. The storm was still much disorganized but on the morning of June 12, the center was relocated more to the north east in a blossom of thunderstorms and it strengthened to 70mph. The storm continued to move north and the strengthening phase leveled off, thereafter the storm began to weaken as dry air intruded its center and wind sheer blew the thunderstorm away from the center. It held together to the coast and made landfall in the Big Ben area of Florida near Adams Beach at 12:30pm EDT on June 13 with 50mph winds.

Currently at 2pm, June 13, 2006 Alberto is located 30.4N and 83.4W, moving NE at 10, winds are 40mph with a central pressure of 998.

With Tropical Storm Alberto, many wonder if the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season is repeating the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Tropical Waves
There are currently three tropical waves in the Atlantic - wave 01 located at 62W/63W, south of 18N, moving west at 10-15 knots.

Wave 02 is located 37W, south of 13N and is moving west at 15 knots.

Wave 03 is located 20W/21W south of 13N moving west at 15 knots. This wave is well defined with a low-mid level circulation at 7N.






The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Weather456's Tropical Weather Blog

About Weather456

With a Bachelors Degree in Environmental Sciences (2009), began tracking tropical storms in 2002 and is now a private forecaster.